Alex Smith QBR: Comparing Week 5 and Week 9

7 - 1

Originally posted by SanDiego49er:
7 - 1

Beautiful thing, isn't it?

Now I don't know a lot about the QBR rating but doesn't it take into account 3rd down conversions? I beleive the Niners were up to their old tricks on 3rd down converting will below 20%

Originally posted by miked1978:
Now I don't know a lot about the QBR rating but doesn't it take into account 3rd down conversions? I beleive the Niners were up to their old tricks on 3rd down converting will below 20%

We were 3-12 against the Redskins and 2-7 against the Bucs. By percentage they are almost equally bad, but I couldn't find out more just by looking at box scores. It's possible more of our 3rd downs this week "mattered" since the game was more competitive longer. It's also possible Alex failed on more 3rd downs he should have had. For example I'm sure missing on a 3rd and 3 pass is worse for QBR than missing on 3rd and 11.

Originally posted by miked1978:
Now I don't know a lot about the QBR rating but doesn't it take into account 3rd down conversions? I beleive the Niners were up to their old tricks on 3rd down converting will below 20%

but alex doesn't throw on every third down

I thought QBR statistics include the QB running yards which the Passer Rating stat does not. Alex Smith is a pretty good runner and uses his legs to pick up first downs and occasionally TDs. Alex's QBR should be higher

Fellow stat geek here too.

I think the answer the OP's question (what is QBR measuring that made the #s so different in the TB and Wash games) is that QBR focuses more on "win probability added", not TD themselves. Basically, every point in a football game can be shown as an expected point value. If SF begins a drive at the 20, then that drive might be expected to produce 1 point for SF (on average). If Alex throws a 20 yard pass, now it's 1st and 10 on the 40, and the drive can now be expected to produce 2 points on average, and so on. So that throw by Alex was "worth" 1 point.

Without getting too deep into the numbers then I think the QBR difference in the Wash and TB games comes down to this: in the TB game (especially early, when the game was in doubt) we didn't have great field position to start. Alex had to drive a long-ish field to score. And we did it mostly by passing – as I remember, we surprised everyone by throwing a lot to open the game. So Alex got a lot credit not just for the Delanie TD but also for the long drives that preceded it. Basically, in QBR's eyes we started a drive with a low expected point value, and Alex turned it into 7 points [almost] all on his own.

In the Wash game, we consistently had excellent field position (i.e. a higher initial point value for the drive) but didn't convert it into lots of points, so Alex got penalized for it. On the Miller TD, we started practically in the red zone after the fumble, so the drive would be "expected" to produce almost a TD. So Alex's throw was just an "average" play in QBR's eyes.

Many things wrong with QBR in my eyes. But this might be at least an explanation.

Love stats as well but know that if you give me some time I can show that Sopoaga is the best receiver in the NFL--statistically.

My problem with QBR is the built in subjectivity of trying to "Divide Credit" to assess how much responsibility each player deserves for a play. How close to the QB does the DL have to be before the OLine are partly responsible for the overthrow, dump off, Int? Do they have to touch the QB? If so, how hard? Should the rating be skewed when the QB is a huge guy like Big Ben? Does he get extra points for being hard to tackle? Same with Cam Newton?

I'm not on board this train yet but will keep on watching as it corrects and modifies and hope it can become more useful. Don't mind an emphasis on scoring though as that's the point of the game. Ints are more difficult to interpolate.

Originally posted by SanDiego49er:
7 - 1

this

Considering they rate players worth on fantasy impact as much as anything else now nothing surprises me. You would think listening to the talking heads that Cam Newton is 7-1 and Alex Smith is 2-6.

Originally posted by dtg_9er:
Love stats as well but know that if you give me some time I can show that Sopoaga is the best receiver in the NFL--statistically.

My problem with QBR is the built in subjectivity of trying to "Divide Credit" to assess how much responsibility each player deserves for a play. How close to the QB does the DL have to be before the OLine are partly responsible for the overthrow, dump off, Int? Do they have to touch the QB? If so, how hard? Should the rating be skewed when the QB is a huge guy like Big Ben? Does he get extra points for being hard to tackle? Same with Cam Newton?

I'm not on board this train yet but will keep on watching as it corrects and modifies and hope it can become more useful. Don't mind an emphasis on scoring though as that's the point of the game. Ints are more difficult to interpolate.

Good post. You echo some of my reasons for not being at all impressed with the current version of this method of rating QBs.

I applaud the attempt to delve more deeply into things a QB MIGHT do to increase his value to the team, however, in the effort, they have included several things that the QB does not have more than partial control. OTOH, other things that the QB DOES have full control over cannot be rated, such as, the audible adjustments.

Originally posted by walker807:
Considering they rate players worth on fantasy impact as much as anything else now nothing surprises me. You would think listening to the talking heads that Cam Newton is 7-1 and Alex Smith is 2-6.

Ironic that pro sports try so hard to control gambling by players/coaches but the entire injury reporting system is set up to PROMOTE gambling interests. Reporting injuries has ZERO impact on how the game is actually played. The only logical reason to report on Wednesday is to give the bookies more time to set the lines and promote their business.

Originally posted by dj43:
Ironic that pro sports try so hard to control gambling by players/coaches but the entire injury reporting system is set up to PROMOTE gambling interests. Reporting injuries has ZERO impact on how the game is actually played. The only logical reason to report on Wednesday is to give the bookies more time to set the lines and promote their business.

Hey, you just watched Damon Wayons say that in The Last Boy Scout !!!

I love this thread! Nice OP and great points throughout.