Why are the Niners so bad at draft in the 1st and 2nd Rounds and how can it change?

Offseason topic! Been wanting to add this thread and I came up on a Reddit post which was interesting. Tried to figure out how to upload an image but its way too complicated for some reason [why can't we just upload an image from our computer??]

Anyways - Niners have been frightfully poor at drafting in the 1st and 2nd day of the draft. This Post shows 1st and 2nd Round starters drafted by team. Niners are 29th in the NFL at a 43% clip (this is over the last five years). If the same analysis showed rounds 4-7, I bet we are at the top of the NFL. Why are we so bad in early rounds but yet so good in later rounds? My guess is that our coaching staff (namely Kyle) exerts more influence in draft day than other teams who let the GM and Scouts do their jobs. And when the Scouts take over on Day 3, we see the benefits. Thoughts from the forum on my theory? B-S or you think there is another reason why we are bad at drafting early?

Shany does not know how to draft in the early rounds. He's always just 1 more WR away. I absolutely couldn't believe we picked a WR last year. With all our offensive and defensive line needs. Eagles and Lions build the TRENCHES. We don't. That's the difference. Shany doesn't care about lines. It's always just one more WR, RB, CB. Not that you don't need those. But he over values it. While massively under valuing offensive and defensive line.

Thinking Kyle has more say than most teams with established HCs at drafting is silly.

I saw that same graph on Reddit and wasn't surprised as it's been clear we struggle with the top end talent. Now whether it's taking a Tackle like McGlinchey over clearly better prospects in James and Minkah or taking Thomas who was supposed to be a slam dunk player and being a JAG. And of course trading away two 1st round picks for a QB isn't gonna help. Then the CMC trade of our 2nds pretty much made our margin for error very small for that graph. When looking at the players we've actually selected in the first 2 rounds the past 5 years Kinlaw, Aiyuk, Lance, Banks, Drake Jackson, Pearsall and Green we are closer to 50% hit range with notable misses being Lance and Kinlaw.

Part of the problem may be our approach to the draft. We have an approach to the draft and it's to fill holes in our roster during Free Agency to allow us to take the best player available. Which on paper is great but it does allow the freedom of thinking of taking a player with a higher ceiling and lower floor because we can groom them as we do not need them playing immediately. The problem is we have swung and missed on the high ceiling guys 3 times Jackson, Kinlaw and Lance. I do wish we would go with more lock players but as Solomon has shown nothing is a lock. I was someone who thought Kinlaw would be a good player and that whole move has been one of if the biggest missteps this FO has made.

Originally posted by SanDiego49er:
Shany does not know how to draft in the early rounds. He's always just 1 more WR away. I absolutely couldn't believe we picked a WR last year. With all our offensive and defensive line needs. Eagles and Lions build the TRENCHES. We don't. That's the difference. Shany doesn't care about lines. It's always just one more WR, RB, CB. Not that you don't need those. But he over values it. While massively under valuing offensive and defensive line.

Lions two big hits in the trenches were no brainer picks at the top of drafts. they were gifted Hutch and Peni.

Same with the eagles. Carter dropped because of off field stuff. They drafted D Smith top 10. Gave up picks for AJ brown.

I'm old enough to remember people b***hing about SF investing in the DL nonstop

Originally posted by Hysterikal:
I saw that same graph on Reddit and wasn't surprised as it's been clear we struggle with the top end talent. Now whether it's taking a Tackle like McGlinchey over clearly better prospects in James and Minkah or taking Thomas who was supposed to be a slam dunk player and being a JAG. And of course trading away two 1st round picks for a QB isn't gonna help. Then the CMC trade of our 2nds pretty much made our margin for error very small for that graph. When looking at the players we've actually selected in the first 2 rounds the past 5 years Kinlaw, Aiyuk, Lance, Banks, Drake Jackson, Pearsall and Green we are closer to 50% hit range with notable misses being Lance and Kinlaw.

Part of the problem may be our approach to the draft. We have an approach to the draft and it's to fill holes in our roster during Free Agency to allow us to take the best player available. Which on paper is great but it does allow the freedom of thinking of taking a player with a higher ceiling and lower floor because we can groom them as we do not need them playing immediately. The problem is we have swung and missed on the high ceiling guys 3 times Jackson, Kinlaw and Lance. I do wish we would go with more lock players but as Solomon has shown nothing is a lock. I was someone who thought Kinlaw would be a good player and that whole move has been one of if the biggest missteps this FO has made.

I don't even think calling McG a bad pick is true. He's priced out his stay here. He was also part of one of the best OLs in football this yr and was top 5 in PBWR. He's finally become an all-around good RT (whether people want to believe it or not).

that graph also has teams like the bears and the saints near the top. Teams with high picks usually get starters, teams that don't have much vet talent usually play those young players (regardless of how good they are).

im not saying they've been great there. I also think it's a bit dramatized.

Originally posted by NYniner85:

Originally posted by SanDiego49er:
Shany does not know how to draft in the early rounds. He's always just 1 more WR away. I absolutely couldn't believe we picked a WR last year. With all our offensive and defensive line needs. Eagles and Lions build the TRENCHES. We don't. That's the difference. Shany doesn't care about lines. It's always just one more WR, RB, CB. Not that you don't need those. But he over values it. While massively under valuing offensive and defensive line.

Lions two big hits in the trenches were no brainer picks at the top of drafts. they were gifted Hutch and Peni.

Same with the eagles. Carter dropped because of off field stuff. They drafted D Smith top 10. Gave up picks for AJ brown.

I'm old enough to remember people b***hing about SF investing in the DL nonstop

Lions HIT on stars in the TRENCHES. Like Sewell and Hutch. Meanwhile we got SLUGS outside of TW (who we traded for), Puni and Bosa. You can invest in the defensive line and offensive line continually as long as you don't BUST on most of them like we do.

Originally posted by NYniner85:

Originally posted by Hysterikal:
I saw that same graph on Reddit and wasn't surprised as it's been clear we struggle with the top end talent. Now whether it's taking a Tackle like McGlinchey over clearly better prospects in James and Minkah or taking Thomas who was supposed to be a slam dunk player and being a JAG. And of course trading away two 1st round picks for a QB isn't gonna help. Then the CMC trade of our 2nds pretty much made our margin for error very small for that graph. When looking at the players we've actually selected in the first 2 rounds the past 5 years Kinlaw, Aiyuk, Lance, Banks, Drake Jackson, Pearsall and Green we are closer to 50% hit range with notable misses being Lance and Kinlaw.

Part of the problem may be our approach to the draft. We have an approach to the draft and it's to fill holes in our roster during Free Agency to allow us to take the best player available. Which on paper is great but it does allow the freedom of thinking of taking a player with a higher ceiling and lower floor because we can groom them as we do not need them playing immediately. The problem is we have swung and missed on the high ceiling guys 3 times Jackson, Kinlaw and Lance. I do wish we would go with more lock players but as Solomon has shown nothing is a lock. I was someone who thought Kinlaw would be a good player and that whole move has been one of if the biggest missteps this FO has made.

I don't even think calling McG a bad pick is true. He's priced out his stay here. He was also part of one of the best OLs in football this yr and was top 5 in PBWR. He's finally become an all-around good RT (whether people want to believe it or not).

that graph also has teams like the bears and the saints near the top. Teams with high picks usually get starters, teams that don't have much vet talent usually play those young players (regardless of how good they are).

im not saying they've been great there. I also think it's a bit dramatized.

Yeah absolutely. It's a bit different starting for our roster than starting for the Bears. Drake Jackson was a 2nd round pick that everyone knew was a high up side high bust potential pick. Kinlaw was a high upside high bust potential pick. Lance was a sky high potential high bust potential pick. Aiyuk was a great collegiate WR and they have a pretty damn good track record for performing in the pros. Aaron Banks has been solid much like McGlinchey even though I hated McGlinchey but there's other reasons for that hatred. Green has started off great and he was a player the scouting community loved. And Pearsall is to be determined but he's a WR probably gonna find a way to be productive.

Originally posted by Hysterikal:
Yeah absolutely. It's a bit different starting for our roster than starting for the Bears. Drake Jackson was a 2nd round pick that everyone knew was a high up side high bust potential pick. Kinlaw was a high upside high bust potential pick. Lance was a sky high potential high bust potential pick. Aiyuk was a great collegiate WR and they have a pretty damn good track record for performing in the pros. Aaron Banks has been solid much like McGlinchey even though I hated McGlinchey but there's other reasons for that hatred. Green has started off great and he was a player the scouting community loved. And Pearsall is to be determined but he's a WR probably gonna find a way to be productive.

Well maybe they should LEARN and stop doing that. LOL. High BUST potential and previous injury history aren't exactly great ways to go about the draft. Big boom and bust players rarely work out in the NFL. You don't want a "project." You want a PLAYER. A can't miss prospect. They need to draft completely differently. Just do the opposite of what they normally do and we will be on the right track.

Originally posted by SanDiego49er:

Originally posted by Hysterikal:
Yeah absolutely. It's a bit different starting for our roster than starting for the Bears. Drake Jackson was a 2nd round pick that everyone knew was a high up side high bust potential pick. Kinlaw was a high upside high bust potential pick. Lance was a sky high potential high bust potential pick. Aiyuk was a great collegiate WR and they have a pretty damn good track record for performing in the pros. Aaron Banks has been solid much like McGlinchey even though I hated McGlinchey but there's other reasons for that hatred. Green has started off great and he was a player the scouting community loved. And Pearsall is to be determined but he's a WR probably gonna find a way to be productive.

Well maybe they should LEARN and stop doing that. LOL. High BUST potential and previous injury history aren't exactly great ways to go about the draft. Big boom and bust players rarely work out in the NFL. You don't want a "project." You want a PLAYER. A can't miss prospect. They need to draft completely differently. Just do the opposite of what they normally do and we will be on the right track.

Trent Williams was a boom or bust player.

Originally posted by Hysterikal:

Originally posted by SanDiego49er:

Originally posted by Hysterikal:
Yeah absolutely. It's a bit different starting for our roster than starting for the Bears. Drake Jackson was a 2nd round pick that everyone knew was a high up side high bust potential pick. Kinlaw was a high upside high bust potential pick. Lance was a sky high potential high bust potential pick. Aiyuk was a great collegiate WR and they have a pretty damn good track record for performing in the pros. Aaron Banks has been solid much like McGlinchey even though I hated McGlinchey but there's other reasons for that hatred. Green has started off great and he was a player the scouting community loved. And Pearsall is to be determined but he's a WR probably gonna find a way to be productive.

Well maybe they should LEARN and stop doing that. LOL. High BUST potential and previous injury history aren't exactly great ways to go about the draft. Big boom and bust players rarely work out in the NFL. You don't want a "project." You want a PLAYER. A can't miss prospect. They need to draft completely differently. Just do the opposite of what they normally do and we will be on the right track.

Trent Williams was a boom or bust player.

He was known to be great and we TRADED for him. We didn't draft him. He was also apparently mis diagnosed with his medical conditions and it therefore wasn't as bad as they thought originally. Commanders should have kept him. But their loss is our benefit. He was a STUD at Oklahoma and a known quantity. Not exactly boom or bust.

1st round - 4th overall - 2010 draft. Inside of a top 5 pick and hardly a guess that he can be good. He was a bulldozer at Oklahoma. Plus an incredible athlete for his size that blew up the workouts. At 6'5" 315 lbs. he ran 4.88 in the 40 yard dash. Ridiculous athleticism for that size and strength.

Recent drafts have been tainted by the fact that the Niners went 2 years without a #1. The NFL average for hits on #1 picks is 43%. By hits that means a starter from day one that contributes at a high level. That's about where the Niners have been with their #1 picks when they have one. Obviosly Lance was huge miss but Bosa and Aiyuk both have been major contributirs when healthy. Last year they picked Pearsall but it's to early to know whether he will be good or just anther guy.

Originally posted by SanDiego49er:

Originally posted by Hysterikal:

Originally posted by SanDiego49er:

Originally posted by Hysterikal:
Yeah absolutely. It's a bit different starting for our roster than starting for the Bears. Drake Jackson was a 2nd round pick that everyone knew was a high up side high bust potential pick. Kinlaw was a high upside high bust potential pick. Lance was a sky high potential high bust potential pick. Aiyuk was a great collegiate WR and they have a pretty damn good track record for performing in the pros. Aaron Banks has been solid much like McGlinchey even though I hated McGlinchey but there's other reasons for that hatred. Green has started off great and he was a player the scouting community loved. And Pearsall is to be determined but he's a WR probably gonna find a way to be productive.

Well maybe they should LEARN and stop doing that. LOL. High BUST potential and previous injury history aren't exactly great ways to go about the draft. Big boom and bust players rarely work out in the NFL. You don't want a "project." You want a PLAYER. A can't miss prospect. They need to draft completely differently. Just do the opposite of what they normally do and we will be on the right track.

Trent Williams was a boom or bust player.

He was known to be great and we TRADED for him. We didn't draft him. He was also apparently mis diagnosed with his medical conditions and it therefore wasn't as bad as they thought originally. Commanders should have kept him. But their loss is our benefit. He was a STUD at Oklahoma and a known quantity. Not exactly boom or bust.

1st round - 4th overall - 2010 draft. Inside of a top 5 pick and hardly a guess that he can be good. He was a bulldozer at Oklahoma. Plus an incredible athlete for his size that blew up the workouts.

What coaching staff was in place in Washington that took Trent? People seem to forget how bad Trent was as a rookie. Kyle's seen first hand a high upside guy hitting; hell blowing his ceiling out. He was anything but a lock and I'm not one bit surprised you're being disingenuous of the history of him.
https://www.draftace.com/profiles/2010/trent_williams.htm

Originally posted by SanDiego49er:
Lions HIT on stars in the TRENCHES. Like Sewell and Hutch. Meanwhile we got SLUGS outside of TW (who we traded for), Puni and Bosa. You can invest in the defensive line and offensive line continually as long as you don't BUST on most of them like we do.

They had to use top 10 picks to HIT on those guys. They had to hope that the jags wouldn't draft Hutch. They had to hope Peni would drop to them.

they got multiple 1sts rd picks moving Stafford to make it all work. Quit acting like they were drafting 32nd and getting guys like Hutch or Peni. Those were no-brainer picks man.

Originally posted by Hysterikal:
Yeah absolutely. It's a bit different starting for our roster than starting for the Bears. Drake Jackson was a 2nd round pick that everyone knew was a high up side high bust potential pick. Kinlaw was a high upside high bust potential pick. Lance was a sky high potential high bust potential pick. Aiyuk was a great collegiate WR and they have a pretty damn good track record for performing in the pros. Aaron Banks has been solid much like McGlinchey even though I hated McGlinchey but there's other reasons for that hatred. Green has started off great and he was a player the scouting community loved. And Pearsall is to be determined but he's a WR probably gonna find a way to be productive.

Yeah man like most teams there's hits and misses. Sometimes you take a chance on those boom or bust guys, sometimes it's works sometimes it doesn't. Is what it is.

This last draft it felt like we went with guys that played a ton of football and were easier to evaluate. They nail this draft like that one and we're gonna be in a good spot.