Just how bad are the Niners at evaluating talent?

Originally posted by Waterbear:

Originally posted by dj43:

Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:
How come Sermon who was a beast at Ohio State is not taking the reigns with Mostert out for the year?

Either their scouting reports were all wrong (hard to miss with so much film available) or they thought they could change his style (make a round peg fit in a square hole) and it isn't working.

I think it is the latter. Too many drafts experts saw Sermon as a quality back with a good NFL future ahead of him.

One of the biggest knocks on him at Ohio State and Oklahoma was his inability to learn a new offense quickly.

I thought he would struggle early on then become much more comfortable and productive like he did at Ohio state.

Unfortunately it seems as though he's still not comfortable with the system and/or Kyle never wanted him and that's why he's benched. :/

Yes, my point was mostly that they should not be disappointed with him because there was plenty of stuff to review to know what they were getting. If they are disappointed in him now, it is because they misread the data that was available to them.

Originally posted by Rice-a-Ronnie:

Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:
Bosa, Warner, Deebo, Kittle, Mitchell, McGlinchey, Ward and Greenlaw would like to have a word. I don't think it's an issue of talent. One question I may have is why do players have such difficulty getting up to speed? Aiyuk clearly has talent. Why is he not developing? Why is the club reportedly frustrated with his development? Does he not want to put in the work? How come Sermon who was a beast at Ohio State is not taking the reigns with Mostert out for the year? Are we taking a sink and swim approach with these guys? What's being done to get them in a position to succeed?

This absolutely is an issue with talent.
Bosa was an obvious pick you couldn't f that up.
McGlinchey is not worthy of his slot
Kittle, Mitchell, Greenlaw are day 3 picks
Ward wasn't drafted by this regime
Deebo and Warner were good picks.

They have whiffed too much on 1st and 2nd day picks. My mother could have done a better job than Lynch and Shanahan. No joke cause she would have gone with the mock drafts which has proven to do better than our talent evaluation. We highlight a couple guys we like in each round and we overdraft to get "our guys". Kinlaw, Foster, Pettis, Banks, Sermon, Witherspoon, Beatherd, and so on.

This right here is a massive issue and it exists because they had such long term contracts. They were able to build as they wanted whereas other FO staff don't have that luxury and are more pressed with getting the best talent.

In fact, you could see them specifically target position groups until they had all their parts and boxes checked off.

They didn't give a s**t about value or BPA. The motto was, "This guy fits our build so go get him at all costs so we can check that box off."

He's a free agent but let's not forget Azeez Al-Shaair, he's been one of our best defensive players. The organization deserves credit for him. Also Jaylon Moore has looked promising.

Originally posted by spizzy:

Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:
Bosa, Warner, Deebo, Kittle, Mitchell, McGlinchey, Ward and Greenlaw would like to have a word. I don't think it's an issue of talent. One question I may have is why do players have such difficulty getting up to speed? Aiyuk clearly has talent. Why is he not developing? Why is the club reportedly frustrated with his development? Does he not want to put in the work? How come Sermon who was a beast at Ohio State is not taking the reigns with Mostert out for the year? Are we taking a sink and swim approach with these guys? What's being done to get them in a position to succeed?

McGlinchey??

He actually is a good pick and would start on most lines. He isn't an All Pro but the run blocking is so good it masks the bad pass protecting so he'd grade out as average. Maybe high average because he's a top 5 run blocker but not a bottom 5 pass protector. There were better picks to be had but yeah, McGlinchey as frustrating as he is counts as a good one. Bad is Thomas, Foster, Pettis, Witherspoon, Beathard, and Hurd. I am only counting day 1 and 2 picks that we can be certain of. I am not counting 2021 guys though you can't give this regime the benefit of thr doubt on day 1 and 2

All of the guys mentioned are clear busts. Hurd is on the list because we are 2.5 years in and have seen nothing. The successes are McGlinchey, Warner, Bosa, and Samuel. Jury is out on Kinlaw, Aiyuk, Trey, Banks. Sermon, and Thomas. But not including 2020 and 2021, they are middle of the pack with drafting. Should be higher with as many high picks as we've had. These lasts two drafts (and rightfully so) will sink or swim them. If Trey alone works out and everyone else busts, they will be saved. I'm hoping Trey works and we can just hit on 60% on the undecideds (3 of 5).

If I had to pick I hope the hits are Kinlaw (because we traded too great of a player to not get the return and because Bosa deserves another dominant force on that line with him. Ford technically is up there but doesn't play enough), Banks (for Trey's sake as well as the right side of the O-line), and Thomas because we need corners in 2021 like we needed receivers in 2016.

Originally posted by spizzy:

Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:
Bosa, Warner, Deebo, Kittle, Mitchell, McGlinchey, Ward and Greenlaw would like to have a word. I don't think it's an issue of talent. One question I may have is why do players have such difficulty getting up to speed? Aiyuk clearly has talent. Why is he not developing? Why is the club reportedly frustrated with his development? Does he not want to put in the work? How come Sermon who was a beast at Ohio State is not taking the reigns with Mostert out for the year? Are we taking a sink and swim approach with these guys? What's being done to get them in a position to succeed?

McGlinchey??

He actually is a good pick and would start on most lines. He isn't an All Pro but the run blocking is so good it masks the bad pass protecting so he'd grade out as average. Maybe high average because he's a top 5 run blocker but not a bottom 5 pass protector. There were better picks to be had but yeah, McGlinchey as frustrating as he is counts as a good one. Bad is Thomas, Foster, Pettis, Witherspoon, Beathard, and Hurd. I am only counting day 1 and 2 picks that we can be certain of. I am not counting 2021 guys though you can't give this regime the benefit of thr doubt on day 1 and 2

All of the guys mentioned are clear busts. Hurd is on the list because we are 2.5 years in and have seen nothing. The successes are McGlinchey, Warner, Bosa, and Samuel. Jury is out on Kinlaw, Aiyuk, Trey, Banks. Sermon, and Thomas. But not including 2020 and 2021, they are middle of the pack with drafting. Should be higher with as many high picks as we've had. These lasts two drafts (and rightfully so) will sink or swim them. If Trey alone works out and everyone else busts, they will be saved. I'm hoping Trey works and we can just hit on 60% on the undecideds (3 of 5).

If I had to pick I hope the hits are Kinlaw (because we traded too great of a player to not get the return and because Bosa deserves another dominant force on that line with him. Ford technically is up there but doesn't play enough), Banks (for Trey's sake as well as the right side of the O-line), and Thomas because we need corners in 2021 like we needed receivers in 2016.

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by Rice-a-Ronnie:

Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:
Bosa, Warner, Deebo, Kittle, Mitchell, McGlinchey, Ward and Greenlaw would like to have a word. I don't think it's an issue of talent. One question I may have is why do players have such difficulty getting up to speed? Aiyuk clearly has talent. Why is he not developing? Why is the club reportedly frustrated with his development? Does he not want to put in the work? How come Sermon who was a beast at Ohio State is not taking the reigns with Mostert out for the year? Are we taking a sink and swim approach with these guys? What's being done to get them in a position to succeed?

This absolutely is an issue with talent.
Bosa was an obvious pick you couldn't f that up.
McGlinchey is not worthy of his slot
Kittle, Mitchell, Greenlaw are day 3 picks
Ward wasn't drafted by this regime
Deebo and Warner were good picks.

They have whiffed too much on 1st and 2nd day picks. My mother could have done a better job than Lynch and Shanahan. No joke cause she would have gone with the mock drafts which has proven to do better than our talent evaluation. We highlight a couple guys we like in each round and we overdraft to get "our guys". Kinlaw, Foster, Pettis, Banks, Sermon, Witherspoon, Beatherd, and so on.

This right here is a massive issue and it exists because they had such long term contracts. They were able to build as they wanted whereas other FO staff don't have that luxury and are more pressed with getting the best talent.

In fact, you could see them specifically target position groups until they had all their parts and boxes checked off.

They didn't give a s**t about value or BPA. The motto was, "This guy fits our build so go get him at all costs so we can check that box off."

I don't mind it if they moved down the board and got fait value. But they overdrafted AND a lot of picks s**t the bed. Its like Baalke level drafting on days 1 and 2 for premium prices for over half the picks.

What a lot of you dont want to acknowledge is every other team has just as many whiffs as this front office. Every single one of them. The first round is literally a crap shoot and the odds are against you just to get an above average player. And as you can imagine it gets worse by round.

Yes this front office is below league average with 1st and 2nd round picks but they are awesome with their mid to late rounders. They'd probably be better off incorporating some of the Rams strategy and trade there 1st rounders for proven talent. It looks like the Rams have realized that draft picks arent as valuable as some think since the majority of players drafted are below average.

I see a lot of people say Bosa was a no brainer, yeah so was Solly. He was ranked #2 in that draft by most draft pundits. So don't say so and so was a no brainer but leave out the bust that was also a no brainer.

Originally posted by miked1978:
What a lot of you dont want to acknowledge is every other team has just as many whiffs as this front office. Every single one of them. The first round is literally a crap shoot and the odds are against you just to get an above average player. And as you can imagine it gets worse by round.

Yes this front office is below league average with 1st and 2nd round picks but they are awesome with their mid to late rounders. They'd probably be better off incorporating some of the Rams strategy and trade there 1st rounders for proven talent. It looks like the Rams have realized that draft picks arent as valuable as some think since the majority of players drafted are below average.

I see a lot of people say Bosa was a no brainer, yeah so was Solly. He was ranked #2 in that draft by most draft pundits. So don't say so and so was a no brainer but leave out the bust that was also a no brainer.

Yup. I just broke it down. Their success rate from 2017 -2019 in rounds 1-3 is slightly above average. If people are so dead set on bad 49ers drafting they should look at 2012- 2016. Or 2001- 2003. Or 95 - 99. THAT was bad drafting.

What's frustrating is that they're quite good on Day 3, and seemingly awful on Day 1. It signifies to me that the scouting is not the issue, but rather Shanahan is a terrible talent evaluator. The trade-ups tend to be quite bad.

Originally posted by dhp318:
What's frustrating is that they're quite good on Day 3, and seemingly awful on Day 1. It signifies to me that the scouting is not the issue, but rather Shanahan is a terrible talent evaluator. The trade-ups tend to be quite bad.

Just think how talented our roster would be if we were hitting in the first 3 rounds as well as we do the rest of the draft.

Mediocre at evaluation. Awful at using talent

I think they are pretty bad. Other teams add talent easily. We really struggle. Often for years at a time.

Also, Sermon was not a good running back prospect. Dude lacks burst and fails to run with any violence. That's a recipe for failure at the NFL level. Much preferred Mitchell as a prospect. If I can see it, then I have no idea why the 49ers can't.

Originally posted by dhp318:
Also, Sermon was not a good running back prospect. Dude lacks burst and fails to run with any violence. That's a recipe for failure at the NFL level. Much preferred Mitchell as a prospect. If I can see it, then I have no idea why the 49ers can't.

Think on that. Assuming that you don't work for an NFL team …….

Originally posted by Heroism:

Originally posted by Waterbear:
This might be my biggest blunder so far.

I was right about Mahomes, Bosa, and Solomon Thomas… but I think I whiffed on Sermon :/

Well, I don't think you can give up on Sermon as a player just yet.

But from a drafting value standpoint for the 49ers, it didn't make sense to take any RB that early.

Agree. I was surprised by the pick myself. It may be signaling a philosophy shift due to Trey Lance. If they want Trey as the second coming of the Mad Bomber, they need a more powerful and consistent kind of ground game. Al Davis had Pete Banasack and Mark Van Eeghen during the heyday of Al's Coryell long ball offenses.