Not sold on 49ers picking a WR with 13th Pick

Originally posted by krizay:

Originally posted by mayo49:
Pittman = JJ Stokes

I have that same hunch.

not gonna lie, first thing that came to my mind too....

Didn't Stokes run like a 4.7? I know i typed it more then once back in the day something to the effect of "no one caught Jerry ......"

I think Pittman plays faster then stokes, but stokes did pivot on one foot better then Pittman.

I think if Pittman gets drafted its important to notice, he didn't go at 10....he prob went at 31 or later, and...he has a rezone role to play. The 49ers did not feature a lot of Fades or jump balls back then, and the team did not do much come back or back shoulder stuff. Its important with Pittman that stuff exist in the offense if he is going to thrive.

He is less of a weapon and more of a tool...i think that applied to Stokes too...we were just use to weapons back then.

Originally posted by scooterhd:

Great with Pittman.

13 for 25 and 58. Take Ruiz, Blacklock, Pittman and lets go to work.

You're giving away a low 3rd round worth of value going from 13 to 25 and 58....how does that make any sense?

Wide Receivers in the first round have a poor draft history. About 1/3rd of 1st round WR's are busts historically. Only about 15% make all-pro and only 30% make a pro-bowl. So it's very risky picking 1st round WR's

Bust Rates for NFL Draft:
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2441018-which-positions-are-the-safest-riskiest-at-the-top-of-the-nfl-draft

Statistical analysis to estimate the value of a trade down scenario:
Say we trade down ten spots from #13 (1150) to #23 (750) = gain 400 draft value points. With that for #13 we could get #23 + #60 + #100 (depending on which chart they use) https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp

If we stay at #13 lets estimate that:
The rd 1 #13 WR (eg. Ruggs) has a 40% chance (at best) to be a pro-bowler, 40% of being very good and 20% chance of bust.

If we trade down and picked WRs, these are the types of players that will be available in a very deep WR draft:
Rd 1 #23 WR (Jefferson or Mims, etc) has a 30% chance of being pro-bowler, 45% of being very good and 25% chance of bust.
Rd 2 #60 WR (Claypool / Peoples / Pittman / Edwards / Tee Higgins? etc) has a 25% chance of being pro-bowler, 40% of being very good and 30% chance of bust.
Rd 3 #100 WR (Antonio Gibson, Claypool / Pittman / Edwards) has a 20% chance of being pro-bowler, 50% of being very good and 30% chance of bust.
So in this scenario we'd get Jefferson at #23, Claypool at #60 and Gibson at #100 in return for our #13 pick (eg. Ruggs). Of course not all of them will be available, but several good WR's will be.

Probability analysis shows that with the trade down we would have these approx. statistical odds:
~60% chance of at least one pro bowl WR
~97% chance of at least one very good WR
~80% chance of at least two very good WR's
~20-25% chance of two pro bowl WR's etc

Whereas if we just picked one WR at #13, our odds of success would be much lower
35-40% chance of getting one pro-bowler
75-80% of one very good WR
0% ZERO chance of two (or more) very good or great WR's

Of course we wouldn't pick three WR's, but it shows the enhanced value of the picks received when trading down.

Originally posted by scooterhd:

Great with Pittman.

13 for 25 and 58. Take Ruiz, Blacklock, Pittman and lets go to work.

If you can get Vikings to throw in their 3rd (they'd be trading up for Jeudy and still have pick 22 after all) and also trade down from 31 to the colts for 44 and 75 and guarantee me

25 Ruiz, IOL
44 Blacklock, DT3T
58 Jaylon Johnson, CB
75 Bryan Edwards, WR
89 Alex Highsmith/Darrell Taylor, ER
156 Saahdiq Charles, OT
176 Trade for Curtis Samuel, WR
210 Benito Jones, DT1T
217 Dalton Keene, TE
245 Reid Harrison-Ducros, NCB

Then I'm down

You got a shot at getting a WR who gets YAC like Jerry Rice, you GO GET HIM,not hope a player with an injured back comes back.

Originally posted by goldlame2013:
You got a shot at getting a WR who gets YAC like Jerry Rice, you GO GET HIM,not hope a player with an injured back comes back.

so you like Ayiuk as well?

Not really a fan of this draft, but to each his own:

https://www.profootballnetwork.com/2020-nfl-draft-san-francisco-49ers-7-round-mock-draft/

Originally posted by FL9er:

Not really a fan of this draft, but to each his own:

https://www.profootballnetwork.com/2020-nfl-draft-san-francisco-49ers-7-round-mock-draft/

That's actually a pretty darn good draft considering no trades, especially when he said Muti lacks ideal power, and that Ahkello is a shoe in starter

Originally posted by goldlame2013:

You got a shot at getting a WR who gets YAC like Jerry Rice, you GO GET HIM,not hope a player with an injured back comes back.

Which WR is like Rice? Maybe if Lamb is available?

Jefferson looks like Rice ... Trade back for Jefferson

Ruggs looks like Marquise Goodwin, not Jerry Rice

Mims and Claypool look like Terrell Owens

Originally posted by maxsmart:

Originally posted by goldlame2013:

You got a shot at getting a WR who gets YAC like Jerry Rice, you GO GET HIM,not hope a player with an injured back comes back.

Which WR is like Rice? Maybe if Lamb is available?

Jefferson looks like Rice ... Trade back for Jefferson

Ruggs looks like Marquise Goodwin, not Jerry Rice

Mims and Claypool look like Terrell Owens

Jeudy.

Trade down.
Gimme Jefferson, Diggs and a stud OL and lets get to work

Originally posted by adrianlesnar:
If you can get Vikings to throw in their 3rd (they'd be trading up for Jeudy and still have pick 22 after all) and also trade down from 31 to the colts for 44 and 75 and guarantee me

25 Ruiz, IOL
44 Blacklock, DT3T
58 Jaylon Johnson, CB
75 Bryan Edwards, WR
89 Alex Highsmith/Darrell Taylor, ER
156 Saahdiq Charles, OT
176 Trade for Curtis Samuel, WR
210 Benito Jones, DT1T
217 Dalton Keene, TE
245 Reid Harrison-Ducros, NCB

Then I'm down

the problem with this strategy is clear in this example. You can't expect Blacklock to be there at 44. If you like him, you consider him at 25 and definitely don't trade out of 31. Jaylon Johnson is probably long gone at this point too. He may not even be there at 44.

so now, 2 of your top 3 targets are not there. which leaves you with Ruiz and a WR with injury flags.

You even have us getting Samuel for a late 5th? that's not likley to happen and we're getting a depth guy now.

These plans sound fantastic but c'mon... instead of having a stud player or two higher in the draft, you really are really gambling on landing a lot of later round guys.

We have a pretty good/deep roster. We need upgrades. Not filler.

Originally posted by OsBoogie:

the problem with this strategy is clear in this example. You can't expect Blacklock to be there at 44. If you like him, you consider him at 25 and definitely don't trade out of 31. Jaylon Johnson is probably long gone at this point too. He may not even be there at 44.

so now, 2 of your top 3 targets are not there. which leaves you with Ruiz and a WR with injury flags.

You even have us getting Samuel for a late 5th? that's not likley to happen and we're getting a depth guy now.

These plans sound fantastic but c'mon... instead of having a stud player or two higher in the draft, you really are really gambling on landing a lot of later round guys.

We have a pretty good/deep roster. We need upgrades. Not filler.

Exactly. That's why it is wrong to say, "you HAVE to go this position at spot x because then you can just get this other guy later". On draft day, teams don't have the luxury of hindsight. Of course you want to try and predict how the draft is going to unfold, but really, if your guy is there, you grab him, whether that's WR, OT, DT or otherwise

Assuming 3 QBs go in the top 12, plus Chase Young plus Okudah, plus Anderson...that means one of the 4 OTs or 3 WRs has to fall to the 49ers. If Derrick Brown also goes in the top 12, then at least 2 of the top 4 OTs or 3 WRs have to fall to the 49ers. I am a bit more skeptical of one of Jeudy/Lamb/Ruggs falling to 13 than I was when they acquired the pick. It wouldn't surprise me if the 49ers went OT at 13, play him at guard and then move him out to OT when Staley retires and the 49ers have 2 young bookend OTs for the next 5-10 years at a time when OL play around the NFL is not great. Based on how they have stuck with players longer than the fan base, it wouldn't be a surprise if they have a lot more faith in Pettis/Taylor/Hurd and feel they can still then pick a WR at 31 or trade down into Round 2 and get a WR then. I would expect the Zone to be generally negative toward picking one of the 4 top OTs at 13 because most have their heart set on Jeudy/Lamb/Ruggs.

Originally posted by kem99:
Assuming 3 QBs go in the top 12, plus Chase Young plus Okudah, plus Anderson...that means one of the 4 OTs or 3 WRs has to fall to the 49ers. If Derrick Brown also goes in the top 12, then at least 2 of the top 4 OTs or 3 WRs have to fall to the 49ers. I am a bit more skeptical of one of Jeudy/Lamb/Ruggs falling to 13 than I was when they acquired the pick. It wouldn't surprise me if the 49ers went OT at 13, play him at guard and then move him out to OT when Staley retires and the 49ers have 2 young bookend OTs for the next 5-10 years at a time when OL play around the NFL is not great. Based on how they have stuck with players longer than the fan base, it wouldn't be a surprise if they have a lot more faith in Pettis/Taylor/Hurd and feel they can still then pick a WR at 31 or trade down into Round 2 and get a WR then. I would expect the Zone to be generally negative toward picking one of the 4 top OTs at 13 because most have their heart set on Jeudy/Lamb/Ruggs.

Who's Anderson?