Question for mad dog and you other draft guys.

Originally posted by TheRickestRick:

It's always better to take 'Watt was' over 'what should of been'.

Just a few thoughts from captain obvious over here:

- Hindsight is always 20/20 and memories are often short
- Nobody can accurately predict how a prospect's career will play out (injuries, performance or off-the-field issues).
~ 2 cases to consider:
- Frank Gore has averaged over 14 games in his 15 NFL seasons after missing all of his 2002 and most of the 2003 college seasons with torn ACLs
- In comparison, Jimmie Ward averaged nearly 14 games played during his 4-year college career, and we know how he's faired injury-wise as a pro
- Like Ward, Watt had no serious injury history during his college career playing in every game, first as a TE at CMU then as a DE at Wisconsin
- Watt is now about to end the season on IR for the 3rd time in the last 4 years
- Regarding Watt/Smith, they were ranked fairly closely by most draft experts, usually somewhere in the top 10-15 picks
- Watt was often seen as a perfect fit to play the strong side DE role in a 4-3 or as the 5-tech in a 3-4
- Smith was considered by many to be the better "pure" rush 4-3 end prospect, with some (Baalke in particular) seeing his real upside as a 3-4 OLB
- Given the glaring need for an edge rusher for Vic Fangio's 3-4 defense heading into 2011, Smith over Watt made a ton of sense then
- Regarding initial performance, prior to his misfortunes, Smith was the fastest player in NFL history to record 30 sacks (did it in 27 games)
- His 14 sacks in 2011 was the most by a 49er rookie ever; his 19.5 sacks in 2012 is the most by a 49er ever
- Smith's total of 33.5 sacks in 2011 and 2012 were the most ever by an NFL player in their first 2 seasons
- He had accumulated an unbelievable 38 sacks in less than 20 NFL games prior to checking in to rehab (2013)
- Finally, there is no public record (that I could find, anyway) of Smith being a head case or an off-the-field problem in any way during his time at Mizzou so for the most part, they thought they were getting a young stud pass rusher to groom who was seemingly clean off-the-field.

Main points?
- The draft is a crapshoot; a player's past might give some indication of future NFL performance but there are NO certainties
- It's a guessing game at best in terms of a player's production, ability to stay healthy and keep out of trouble when not playing
- Watt is clearly and obviously seen as the better pick NOW, but Smith was on his way to possibly being the best pass rusher the game had ever seen before initiating his self-destruction in late September of 2013.

Originally posted by English:

Originally posted by Second2Nunley:
Watt was not only the more impactful player, but outstanding in the community. Easy choice.

Yes. And a leader in the locker room. Aldon, aside from the first couple of seasons, was a self destructive force. No comparison.

Very well said!