MadDog49er Draft Analysis for the Class of 2017

Maddog is the only one person in the world not high on the Foster pick lol

Originally posted by Wu-5Rings:
I would just cut ties with Vance or eat the majority of the contract via trade, Another Baalke dumb ass move right before he left. Seachicken spy much

Send Tank outta here too..

Get rid of Ellington and Vance Asap before it spreads.. Tell this recent class ya better step up this year.

Baalke has to be one of the top 3 f**k ups of this franchise history.

0 tolerance for buffoonery.

Well, in hindsight, it looks that way.

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

My picks when the team was on the clock:
1. Solomon Thomas-DE
1A. Forrest Lamp-G
3. Cooper Kupp- WR
3A. Blair Brown- LB
4. Jake Butt- TE
5.Damontae Kazee- CB
5A.Xavier Woods- FS
6.Bucky Hodges- TE
6A.Keion Adams- LB
7. Cameron Tom- C

Thanks for all the work. Based on your board, I was half expecting Lamp and Brown when they were on the clock for 1A and 3A.

For any of the draft slots, were there any QB or RB that you strongly considered?

Originally posted by thl408:

Foster: I agree that an MLB needs to be smart enough to digest presnap info and get other players in position or change assignments, but I don't think Foster is going to play MLB. He seems like a pure Will seeing as how he is a natural 225-235 pounder. Nick Saban asks his players to pattern match in various ways so I think he can handle performing assignments. If he can't handle handing out assignments, so be it. I'm not counting this against him. That he failed the drug test when he knows he's entering the draft is a concern.

Interesting point. At Bama, I believe he was having knee problems playing above 240.

Originally posted by badguy_1:
Maddog is the only one person in the world not high on the Foster pick lol

MadDog and 30 NFL GM's.

My goodness, this was really a harsh assessment of this draft MadDog. B- grade but D- assessment. Not to say that you don't but I just wish fans really would exercise a bit of patience. It seems, finally, that we have a HC and staff with a fu_king clue, a GM and coach FINALLY on the same page seemingly with a long-term plan, and ownership seems to be taking more of a hands-off approach. Given what the fans have been subjected to over that last recent years it amazes me that fans are so rough with this draft, a draft by most accounts seems to be a good one, especially for a rookie coach and a rookie GM. Fans really need to get a grip, step back, and take a panoramic few of the state of the 49ers pre-Lynch and Shanny.

Dear lord, just what are the unenthused fans expecting anyway? Starters at every position drafted? Just where do the unenthused think the roster of this team was at prior to Lynch and Shanny? Does Shanny & Co. at least have a right of time to prove why they drafted the players that they did? For crying out loud, this team won a whopping 2 games last season (beating all of 1 team) with the cat sh!t that the previous regime's left this team to eat with a knitting needle. Yet we have fans bit_hing about our rookie regime's FIRST draft class (a decent crop at least) as though they've guaranteed us a 2018 Super Bowl

I'm not saying that I necessarily liked all the picks of this draft. Some were a bit of a shock. But, given the nightmare-ish previous years before them it seems that they have some grip on what they want, and the picks do seem to be fitting into a system Shanny & Co. intend to install (on both sides of the ball), IMHO I think we owe THIS regime the holding of criticism until we've seen the wisdom, success or failure, of their plan. We haven't seen these players play in the NFL, nor have we seen how these players will be used under this regime's tutelage (which will shed more light on what Lynch and Shanny saw in these players).

So lets at least see these guys in action coach by Shanny & Co. before we negatively access this draft.

The 2017 draft worked out well. We should get many good players, but that's to be expected since we were picking high and had 11 picks. However, I agree with Mad Dog that there were several problems. I have concerns going forward about Lynch's ability to get good value for his picks. Rather than just saying "how great Lynch is", it's important that we give Lynch constructive criticism so that they improve their weaknesses.

I don't think that Lynch focuses on getting good value for his picks. He needs to learn how to play poker a little better. eg. If your BPA is going to be available in round 5 you don't draft him in round 1. If you love him you might draft in rd 3-4, but you don't want to over-pay.

Here are a few examples of where Lynch was OK with over-drafting and not getting good value

Pick #2 – Lynch admitted that he probably would have taken Rueben Foster at #3 overall if Thomas was not there!!! That would have been exceptionally poor value and a very bad decision, they should have known that he would have been there much later …. Lynch got lucky that Bears gave them so much.

Pick #34 – Lynch said that they were trying to trade up to ~#13 to pick Foster. They would have had to give up ~ #34, #66, #109 (their 2, 3 and 4) picks to trade up that high to get Foster … which would have been a big mistake … He was lucky that nobody wanted to trade down and that Foster fell so far. Otherwise he would have wasted several draft picks.

Pick #67 – the 3rd pick at the top of the 3rd rd. Trading it for a 2018 2nd is a risky move. Conceivably that 2018 pick could be the #64 pick. Most likely the New Orleans pick will be ~#42-50, still only gaining us ~20 slots, but since the 2017 draft was a deep draft they should have gotten more than a 2018 2nd + 7th . Not a good trade unless they think that the 2018 draft is better than 2017.

Pick #109 – Over-drafted Beathard. Could have had Beathard at the end of rd 4. Not a good value to fall in love and trade up and over-draft a guy. Could have picked Carl Lawson etc then picked Beathard at the end of 4th

Pick #202 & 229 – Both guys seems to be a little over-drafted. Perhaps could have traded down a little?

Trade with Broncos – 49ers give up 2018 4th (likely ~#110-115) to get #177 + Bibbs. Bibbs will likely be cut. So they gave up a valuable 2018 pick ~65 spots higher in the draft (~2 rounds). Not a good trade. Perhaps they were doing Elway a favor for giving us Peters?

It is important to get good value with your picks. There were several worrisome signs that Lynch is OK with getting poor value, so it's important that he learn not to over-draft players.

Originally posted by Vito_Corleone:

I have concerns going forward about Lynch's ability to get good value for his picks.

I don't think that Lynch focuses on getting good value for his picks. He needs to learn how to play poker a little better. eg. If your BPA is going to be available in round 5 you don't draft him in round 1. If you love him you might draft in rd 3-4, but you don't want to over-pay.

Here are a few examples of where Lynch was OK with over-drafting and not getting good value

That would have been exceptionally poor value and a very bad decision, they should have known that he would have been there much later

Not a good trade unless they think that the 2018 draft is better than 2017.

Pick #109 – Over-drafted Beathard. Could have had Beathard at the end of rd 4. Not a good value to fall in love and trade up and over-draft a guy.

Pick #202 & 229 – Both guys seems to be a little over-drafted. Perhaps could have traded down a little?

Bibbs will likely be cut. So they gave up a valuable 2018 pick ~65 spots higher in the draft (~2 rounds).

It is important to get good value with your picks. There were several worrisome signs that Lynch is OK with getting poor value, so it's important that he learn not to over-draft players.

I don't want to look like I'm picking on you directly, this is a little more of my exasperation with the fixation on "value", "overdrafting", "steals" and "reaches" many (most) people have when it comes to the draft.

What is the draft? It's securing the contract rights of prospective athletes. It's not a game. Or rather, it's not the game you think it is.

Poker is a dreadful parallel. In (most) card games the value of card combinations is known a priori, as are their probabilities (assuming perfect card counting memory). The draft is not like this. Players' "value" is a very slippery concept, even in pure football terms. There are too many variables: psychological, physical, mental. It's even more so when the 32 teams' individual (and secret) utility functions are brought into it. One team's "athletic freak" is another team's "headcase". A "project with upside" for one is "raw and risky" for the other.

Basically: we can't really tell how good these players will turn out to be. Even if we could measure them perfectly now (and we can't), we cannot account for bad luck, injuries, family bereavements, etc.

More importantly, when it comes to the draft: we don't know what our board looked like. We can take Lynch's word for it or not. We certainly don't know what the other 31 teams' boards looked like. Statements like "X could be had at the bottom of the 4th" are meaningless. How do we know? Because a bunch of draftniks said so?

I judge this draft by the following criteria:

1. We picked mostly there or thereabouts when it came to our original draft position: some slightly earlier, some slightly later.

2. Our GM and HC seem to be happy that they got the players they wanted. Hopefully they wanted the right players, but we shall see.

3. We ended up with all our picks for next year plus two more high rounders. Sure, the NO pick may turn out to be #64. It may also turn out to be #33. We haven't played the games yest. Our draft capital for next year is unimpaired, and in fact enhanced. We could trade aggressively for a veteran or in the draft without depleting our chances.

4. I don't get a feeling that we tried to be clever like Baalke when he was getting all that "value" with his All-ACL team. We seem to have got who was BPA on our board and/or targeted some draft crushes of our coach. That's good enough for me. Now, these BPAs and draft crushes may turn out to be awful busts. Hopefully not. But if they do, it won't be because we "overdrafted" them. It will be because they are bad athletes after all, or headcases, or unlucky with injuries. It won't be because they were magically affected by being drafted in the 3rd round but would have been OK if they had been drafted in the 7th.

Let me put it in another way. Baalke got lots of props from draftniks for the wonderful "value" he got for Eli Harold. How has this "value" translated to performance on the field so far?

Originally posted by thl408:

Great summary. Only quoted the parts I wanted to comment on.

Foster: I agree that an MLB needs to be smart enough to digest presnap info and get other players in position or change assignments, but I don't think Foster is going to play MLB. He seems like a pure Will seeing as how he is a natural 225-235 pounder. Nick Saban asks his players to pattern match in various ways so I think he can handle performing assignments. If he can't handle handing out assignments, so be it. I'm not counting this against him. That he failed the drug test when he knows he's entering the draft is a concern.

Witherspoon: At the time of this selection, were there any Edge players you would have considered? I was hoping for Edge at the top of the 3rd, but I don't know enough about BPA at Edge at the time and how that correlates to big board BPA. Once it gets past round 1, I'm just hoping the draft selection fills what I think is a team need. I had, and still have, Edge as a higher team need over CB. I watched some Witherspoon and love how he uses his length to contest catches. There was a chart posted of targets thrown his way (completions vs incompletions) and he took away nearly everything towards the sidelines past 15 yards. Exactly what you'd expect a long CB to do.

CJ Beathard: He had poor production, but I think system fit and intangibles played a big role in this selection. I saw good ball placement when I watched his Michigan State game (2015). It was mentioned that the Iowa HC gave him freedom to audible because of his high IQ. A big plus to him is there isn't much re-wiring to do since he's done a lot of things in Iowa's offense that Kyle will be doing.

As someone that also watches a bunch of film, I can tell you that I can never do what you do. I tried. Watching a player is very different than watching an entire offense/defense to analyze scheme. On top of that, I don't have an idea for level of competition when watching college ball, and not having the all22 - that really irks me. Thanks for all the research and hard work. Very much appreciated.

For the third round, we had picks 66,67. I wanted Witherspoon here, so I love the pick. At 67, I was out of my mind ecstatic, because I knew we were going to get one of the edges:
T. Basham
C. Lawson
D. Rivers
J. Willis
T. Williams
However, we traded 67. Also, iirc, the league wasn't nearly as high on these guys as we (zone) was. Most of these went much later.

Wasn't thrilled with the trade for the future 2 at the time, but seeing their whole draft come together, they obviously have a plan and I trust it.

MadDog I was just wondering, have you ever selected a QB with your picks when the 9ers drafted?

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

Originally posted by badguy_1:

Maddog is the only one person in the world not high on the Foster pick lol

MadDog and 30 NFL GM's.

Haha nice. We were going to take Foster 3rd if the Bears picked Solomon!

This article gave an excellent explanation of Lynch's thought process:

http://mmqb.si.com/mmqb/2017/05/01/san-francisco-49ers-nfl-draft-room-bears-trade-reuben-foster-peter-king

What I find interesting is his emotional attachment to certain players. Compare this to Maddog's more dispassionate analysis where he takes the rankings of others, gives an up or down spin based on his own analysis, and downgrades severely for risk. Personally, I think Maddog's approach is better. Normally the group will make better decisions than skilled individuals. But it is so easy to think you are better than everyone else in grading players when you are one of the NFL elite. With Lynch's approach, he will probably always overpay to get the players that he wants rather than trust his draft board and grab the best man available.

Originally posted by flynhayn15:

Originally posted by Wu-5Rings:

Originally posted by flynhayn15:

Originally posted by Wu-5Rings:

(Just saying)

1) Maybe Wu really did know that he had talented players on the squad

2) Maybe Wu really wasn't all that bias after all

3) Time will tell but as of right now, the NFL seems to agree

If it doesn't apply, let it fly.

P.s Great draft from an intelligent GM and Head coach. Its a good start. I voted A- those extra draft picks made it a great draft and got their guys... btw

http://www.sportingnews.com/ncaa-football/news/nfl-draft-picks-2017-most-selections-college-alabama-ohio-state-michigan-clemson/mrrpdzrcnust1p00owp6453ek

"Pete Carroll calls on former nemesis Harbaugh: 'He's a great coach"
http://www.freep.com/story/sports/college/university-michigan/wolverines/2017/04/29/michigan-wolverines-football-jim-harbaugh-pete-carroll-seattle-seahawks-nfl-draft/101062666/

"NFL Draft 2017: Michigan edges Alabama for most draft picks by school"

True story.

Maybe Brady Hoke was a better recruiter than everyone thought?

Or maybe Harbaugh was a better coach than we thought?

https://www.google.com/amp/www.maizenbrew.com/platform/amp/2016/2/4/10917008/michigan-football-recruiting-scout-names-chris-partridge-national-recruiter-year-2016

"Scout Names Michigan's Chris Partridge the 2016 National Recruiter of the Year"


https://www.google.com/amp/amp.mlive.com/v1/articles/20085736/michigan_assistant_chris_partr_1.amp

"Michigan assistant Chris Partridge named nation's top recruiter for 2017"

How can you beat back to back recruiter of the year award???
Under Harbaugh...

Are you in North Dakota? I like facts not coverups..

I agree that Harbaugh is a good coach and a good recruiter. But the same people who gave him high recruiting grades gave Hoke low grades when he recruited Peppers, Charlton, Butt, and Wormley and the others that were drafted this year. So maybe they weren't as talent deprived as once thought.

Maybe.. but Brady Hoke was given plenty of chances to develop them and the scandal with the AD was just too much for Michigan. These are quotes from the players praising Harbaugh for what he did to prepare them for the nfl. All of the drafted players are praising Harbaugh for the tough love shown.. Its obvious they see that helped them enormously.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/michigan.247sports.com/Bolt/Michigan-players-at-NFL-Combine-credit-Harbaugh-for-preparation-51609007/Amp

"He definitely did a great job of preparing us," Michigan hybrid linebacker Jabrill Peppers said. "We couldn't have asked for anyone better to fill the void when Coach Hoke left. He was hard on us, he made it business-like and (made us experience) what we can expect at the next level. And I'm more than grateful for that."

"The emphasis placed on changing the culture was painful, but necessary, for those players who hadn't before endured four-hour practices and embracing a mentality that practices against teammates should be harder than the games.
Wormley says that Harbaugh's approach means more than that, though. His expertise having been an NFL head coach meant that he could impart wisdom about how players should handle the process of getting to The League -- from selecting agents and trainers to how to handle the entire combine process."

The Michigan team captain says that because of Harbaugh, the Wolverines players do have it better than everyone else.
"I think Coach Harbaugh came in and ran our program like an NFL program, like he had with the 49ers," Wormley said. "So we're used to that. A more business-like atmosphere. But obviously tips not only with the agency process starting off right after the bowl game, to what it was going to be like here, and the Senior Bowl and things like that that gave us a leg up on the competition."


"It'll be love," Charlton said. "Coach Harbaugh is a guy that I've learned to love to play for the last two years. He changed how Michigan was respected in the NCAA. Everybody's starting to fear Michigan again. Like I said, I loved playing for Harbaugh, and I'd love playing for John Harbaugh, just because I know how Coach Harbaugh was for us. I know that he has that same passion for football."

http://www.scout.com/college/michigan/story/1774708-pro-style-system-prepared-darboh-for-nfl

"For Darboh, he is thankful that he was able to go through the grueling practices and everything else that Harbaugh threw at his players in Ann Arbor. Darboh now says that it helped him develop an NFL mindset that he will be bringing to Seattle this season.
"It helped a lot," Darboh said. "Not only with the coaches he had around me and the way he ran his meetings, but when he came in [Harbaugh had] that NFL system mindset. Just the way he treated us, he treated us like pros and that's going to bring me to the next level."

"Honestly, I don't think any other school out here has it easier than us right now because we've been through it all and I don't think (other players) have as far as I know," D'veon Smith said on Thursday not long before he bench pressed 225 pounds 22 times.
"A lot of people out here aren't as prepared as any Michigan football player out here. Coach Harbaugh got us right for sure. This is mentally draining and coach Harbaugh has put us through the hardest thing ever, a four-hour practice. If you can do a four-hour practice, you can do anything. You can withstand any of this we're going through. It's like a walk in the park. I mean sometimes it gets annoying, but you've got to think back where coach Harbaugh took and to think about those situations. This is very, very easy compared to that."

"It's also a good player development show for Harbaugh and his staff. His program hasn't won the Big Ten yet, or even its East division. But these players were part of mediocre to bad teams under Hoke and two good ones in a row under Harbaugh. It's not like his staff didn't have anything to do with this. Even Pete Carroll agrees."

Even his nemesis admits it...

Another myth debunked.. All that b******t talk, Harbaugh worked these guys too much.. I never heard anything more stupid in my entire life..

In life, you work hard for what you want, not less and try to get the same results.

Joe Williams production after coming back is unreal. Kid is a flat out natural. Let's just hope he keeps his mind right.

Originally posted by AB81Rules:
No disrespect but saying Williams quit because of his sisters death is a red flag is a bit harsh IMO.

I don't think it's tasteless to discuss it. His sister died a long time ago. If he really has been battling those demons for a decade, are we really supposed to believe his problems just disappeared during a 30-day break? That sounds like wishful thinking.

Mental illness is a very serious thing. Many people have recurring bouts and highs and lows. If, 10 years after his sisters death, the pain hit him so hard that he walked away from football entirely, who's to say it won't happen again 6 months ,1 year, or 3 years down the line?

I think it's a perfectly valid concern that absolutely should be considered and can be discussed respectfully.