MadDog49er Draft Analysis for the Class of 2017

MadDog49er · 2017-04-29T21:42:46-07:00

Well, it comes and goes so quickly, that I hope we all had a chance to enjoy the weekend full of fun and drama. With a new administration comes new hope, and new players to build a future. Here is what I saw from the Niners this weekend in my draft analysis. To preface, I do not evaluate anything outside of the picks themselves. I do not add or subtract value for the volume of picks, or lack of volume, good trades or poor trades along the way, or the pickup of unrestricted free agents. Others may calculate those factors into a final grade. I simply analyze each pick to see the quality of the selection as a solid player, and if it is a solid fit for the team. Here is my evaluation of each pick and then my list of selections while the team was on the clock: Round 1- Solomon Thomas- Thomas was the best player on my board when the Niners were on the clock. He is a tremendous football player, and has terrific upside. Fast, strong, good inside and out, smooth, and with excellent character. This is the kind of player a team can build around. I envision the team playing him outside on base downs and shift him inside on passing downs. Just what the doctor ordered in run defense, where we stunk last year. He is outstanding against the run. Not a burner around the edge, but is not a sloth as well. Tends to go straight at OTs than bend around the corner. A nightmare for interior OL to handle. Excellent pick. Round 1- Reuben Foster- Easily a top ten talent (for me a top 5 talent) if all factors outside of the football field are considered. Fast, tough, smooth, and solid across the board in all facets of defense (run, pass defense, pass rush). No problem covering RBs. Plays well through trash. Has no problem hitting people. Just a complete football player....on the field. The red flags come off the field, and there are numerous. Getting kicked out of the combine, to my knowledge, has never happened before, and showed a lack of self-restraint/maturity. Failing a urine test shows a complete lack of foresight, and seriousness of the moment. This is your job interview, and you failed in multiple ways. Self-admittedly poor at the whiteboard, and low Wonderlic score of 9 is another red flag for the complexities of defensive systems he will run with in the future. So, I ask myself, most MLBs are team captains and running the huddle. Is this the guy I want doing that? Hell no. If he is just a guy as an OLB, then I have better sentiments toward the pick. No one issue is a complete disaster, but the composite accumulation of all these factors tell me that he is not a clean player. And, that is the reason he sunk to the bottom of the first round. First round guys, regardless of talent, have to have a clean sheet. Call me not a fan of this pick, since there were a LOT of talented guys out there with clean sheets in front of them. Round 3- Ahkello Witherspoon- One of the more physically gifted CBs in the draft (his SPARQ score was nearly 95%), a long limbed, tall (over 6'2 1/2") is a nice match for what the Niners want to do on defense. Witherspoon improved greatly from two years ago to last year to this year. His completion allowed percentage continues to drop. Thin, but runs very well. Not a slot guy (he will be on the edge), there is a lot to like with this pick. Witherspoon was fourth best on my board at the time of this pick, so count me a fan.I think he can step in and compete right away for a starting position. Round 3- CJ Beathard- The ghost of Trent Baalke roared it's head and made an initial, head-scratching appearance with this selection at 104 overall. What in the world was the brass thinking? Beathard was absolutely brutal in multiple games this year (his final college game had a 7 for 23, 55 yards, and 3 INTs line). Yes, he was down some targets this year. Yes, he played some good teams and defenses. But, this is not a guy you are building a franchise around. He is not Cousins. So, why use a third rounder on a backup QB? I have no idea. To me, a complete disaster. Round 4- Joe Williams- I believe I had a higher grade than most on Williams. He was my number 9 RB in this draft, and if you watch him on film, you will see one fast cat that can break big plays. I don't see the full versatility as some other backs who have a more, well-rounded game, but Williams overall was a quality selection if you are looking at RB, and ignoring anything off the field. Williams has some baggage in his past, including the death of his sister, that caused him to quit football for a couple games at the beginning of this year. When he came back, he was a force. The production per game was pretty remarkable at over 150 yards/.game. But, quitting football should be a red flag because he has already done it once. What if he falls into another funk? The team took a risk here, something I wouldn't have minded if it were in the 6th round. To me, this is way too early a selection due to the risk of another departure. We already traveled down that road with Anthony Davis before. Round 5- George Kittle- I have nothing but good things to say about Kittle. A complete tight end who can block inline or line up in the slot, Kittle was the second best tight end on my board at this pick, and fourth or fifth best overall. Under-used and underappreciated at Iowa, he showed well at the combine as a smooth athlete. SPARQ score of 97% percentile shows a stud athlete. Bright, hard-working, cares about football. Good size at about 6'4", 250. This was a very strong pick. Round 5- Trent Taylor- A really bad pick in 2017, but possibly much better pick in 2018, if Cousins signs with the team. Taylor is a tiny, slot WR, who posted more catches in big boy college football than anyone else. 136 catches is crazy. Now, you are getting very little to nothing after the catch, and you better have an accurate QB because his catch radius is tiny (hence the reference to Cousin). Taylor can return punts as well. To me, a bit rich for the 5th round, but a solid possession receiver for a hyper accurate QB. Round 6- DJ Jones- A solid interior rush defender for Ole Miss, Jones is a NT, which will allow him to compete right away to get in the DL rotation. Good productivity this year and last (he was probably better last year since Nkemdiche was next to him taking a lot of OL attention). You are not getting much up the field action. More of a classic toilet--clogging NT. Numerous teams expressed interest in him. I had him substantially lower down my board. Short arms and short height (less than 6'1"), at 320 pounds he is a classic fire hydrant NT. Tepid enthusiasm from me. Round 6- Pita Taumoepenu- Many 49ers fans wanted the team to get an edge rusher in the draft. Well, here he is, because this is Pita's one true talent on the field. Had a good 2016 year, even though he was spotty in starting assignments. Pita started only 7 games in his career at Utah, so this is not a guy with a lot of experience. 9 sacks in 12 games last year, turned in a nice Pro Day workout which included a fast, sub 7.00 cone time, and 10 yard split at 1.62, which is very good. At 6'1", 240, he has short area quickness. But, he is one dimensional. Super raw. Only started playing football when he moved from Tonga at 17. I understand the team is filling out the roster with positions of need, but I just don't see this guy as anything more than a core special-teamer. So many better players on the board at the time. Round 7- Adrian Colbert- Free safety, graduate transfer from Texas to Miami who sat out 2015 and played 7 games in 2016. What do I say about a 7th rounder? Can he make the roster? I don't think so at safety. Could he develop on the practice squad? Maybe. Colbert is fast. He ran a sub 4.50 at his Pro- Day I just look at the roster of undrafted free agents and think that forty of these would have been better picks. I don't get the pick. Nothing excites me watching his game film. They must see something they like. Mark me down for a draft grade of B-. The best picks of Thomas, Witherspoon, Kittle give hope. All three are solid pros, who will be a part of helping the team. All three should start in the next year at some point. Foster is the wild card. If he keeps clean, then this draft could have solid potential to be a cornerstone in rebuilding the team for the future. My picks when the team was on the clock: 1. Solomon Thomas-DE 1A. Forrest Lamp-G 3. Cooper Kupp- WR 3A. Blair Brown- LB 4. Jake Butt- TE 5.Damontae Kazee- CB 5A.Xavier Woods- FS 6.Bucky Hodges- TE 6A.Keion Adams- LB 7. Cameron Tom- C Quick comment on my picks- We agreed with Thomas pick. Lamp was an unexpected drop in this draft, and that is OK with me. I perceive him to be equal with Zach Martin, and if that is the case, he is going to the Pro-Bowl. I was originally targeting Evan Engram, but he was snatched up at 23 by the Giants. Nobody has been able to cover Cooper Kupp this year, either in the regular season, or at the Senior Bowl. He is the best route runner in this draft, and will make his mark in the slot. Blair Brown is a stud. I think he is this year's version of Jatavis Brown (no relation). Ignored because of height and being in the MAC, he simply kicks a$$ on the field. Love watching him play. Check out the Tennessee game where he and Basham deflate the Tennessee offense. Jake Butt was one of the best TE's in this draft before injury. I see him as this year's Jason Witten. He simply finds ways to get open on the field. No problem taking a red-shirt year if needed. Kazee is the back to back Defensive Player of the Year for the MWC. He then came to the Senior Bowl and looked tremendous. Short, but the heart of a lion. Love the kid. Woods was one of the few single-high FS in this draft. Small schooler, but good athlete and solid production. Underrated for sure. Not sure why he was on the board this late. Kept waiting for teams to select Bucky Hodges, and finally thought it was the time in the 6th. Instant red zone threat, long and lean split out wide. Gives very little in blocking. Can be the emergency third string QB. Adams is a hyper/explosive edge for Western Michigan. Flies around the field, has a wicked spin move. Really exciting high energy prospect. Finally, Tom is a four year starter with very good athleticism (sub 5.0 time) and leadership. Can pull easily. In wrapping up, I wanted to say thanks to everyone who makes this board special leading into and through the draft. From the genius known as Phoenix, to the equally amazing, but too busy to share his brilliance often enough, On the Clock; the Hall of Famers, the heavy contributors (sorry for not listing all of you) who breathe life into this board, and even the newbies who keep us sharp by not accepting a sloppy evaluation because of history/street cred on the board: Thanks for a great run this draft season. It is an honor to join you in this journey together. I can honestly say that I hope I am wrong on every low evaluation I placed on a Niners' player, because in the end, we hope they all become stars, and we get this mess corrected. Cheers to all. Now, feel free to hammer my opinions. I am stretching

Apr 29, 2017 at 9:55 PM

jreff22
Veteran
Posts: 67,311

Any guess on where the run D ends up ranking this year?

How bad are we going to be rushing the QB?

With the current log jams at WR, CB, RB, and TE...do you see any surprise cuts or trades? Vance was on the block for instance.

Apr 29, 2017 at 10:21 PM

9erred
Veteran
Posts: 4,192

I was upset when they traded the 3rd round pick to New Orleans. I understand they are gathering ammo for next season, but with Cooper Kupp on the board, I would have ran to the podium to pick this kid.

I am going to give Shannahan a pass on CJ Beathard, I read an article that he was gun shy due to RGIII and wanted to know a qb could be smart and play from under center. I am hoping with fingers and toes crossed that he becomes a good pro and this starts the ascent of him being a draft guru.

I also was shocked in round three there was some good LEO DE's still available, that would have been solid grabing Tim Williams in the third.

Apr 29, 2017 at 10:24 PM

MadDog49er
Hall of Fame
Posts: 19,400

Originally posted by 9erred:
I was upset when they traded the 3rd round pick to New Orleans. I understand they are gathering ammo for next season, but with Cooper Kupp on the board, I would have ran to the podium to pick this kid.

I am going to give Shannahan a pass on CJ Beathard, I read an article that he was gun shy due to RGIII and wanted to know a qb could be smart and play from under center. I am hoping with fingers and toes crossed that he becomes a good pro and this starts the ascent of him being a draft guru.

I also was shocked in round three there was some good LEO DE's still available, that would have been solid grabing Tim Williams in the third.

Williams has two special talents: Rushing the passer and breaking the law. Not a good combination.

I didn't like the trades after the Chicago. Thought they lost players

Apr 29, 2017 at 10:25 PM

MadDog49er
Hall of Fame
Posts: 19,400

Originally posted by jreff22:
Any guess on where the run D ends up ranking this year?

How bad are we going to be rushing the QB?

With the current log jams at WR, CB, RB, and TE...do you see any surprise cuts or trades? Vance was on the block for instance.

Middle of the pack defense, which is a huge upgrade, Mark me down for 18th.

Seems the team is not thrilled with Hyde. Could be dealt or dumped.

Apr 29, 2017 at 10:27 PM

MrCrab49ers
Veteran
Posts: 608

MadDog I usually agree on most of your posts, but I have to disagree on some of your assessments on these guys. Can't have choir boys as a team.
I love the Foster, Williams and Taylor picks. With these picks, 49ers are interested team to watch again

As for Beathard, I'm sure many said the same on Brady. You just never know, QB tough to evaluate this late.
Overall, I'm happy with the draft plus added 2nd and 3rd round next year. So, far, I'm impressed on the first draft of this new regime. Go 49ers!!!

[ Edited by MrCrab49ers on Apr 29, 2017 at 10:29 PM ]

Apr 29, 2017 at 10:43 PM

JBrack
Member
Posts: 2,827

Fyi Foster was pissed because he had team meetings he was supposed to attend so he yelled at some hospital workers to hurry up.

Dede Westbrook was actually kicked out of a 15 min team interview at the combine.

Bethard is also a much better prospect than Peterman who you would be Okay with.

I understand your "peter" hurts but leave the "man" alone.

Apr 29, 2017 at 10:53 PM

AB81Rules
Hall of Fame
Posts: 33,978

No disrespect but saying Williams quit because of his sisters death is a red flag is a bit harsh IMO.

Apr 29, 2017 at 11:05 PM

JBrack
Member
Posts: 2,827

Originally posted by AB81Rules:
No disrespect but saying Williams quit because of his sisters death is a red flag is a bit harsh IMO.

Yeah that rubbed me wrong too. I didn't care for that judgmental comment. I actually saw a special on that and he could just never get over the fact that it wasn't his fault. He thought he could have done more somehow. She was misdiagnosed at the hospital as being severely dehydrated. She was actually having heart attacks and later died. Meanwhile he is becoming a success and all he can think about is his sister and he starts to feel guilty about his success. He finally learned how to cope and accept the fact it wasn't his fault and thats what healed him and troubled him. Very touching story!

Apr 29, 2017 at 11:09 PM

AB81Rules
Hall of Fame
Posts: 33,978

Originally posted by pahlerbj:

Originally posted by AB81Rules:
No disrespect but saying Williams quit because of his sisters death is a red flag is a bit harsh IMO.

I agree, his sister dying in his arms isn't really a "funk".

I'm really pulling for this guy, hope he turns into a solid pro.

Me too, I like Williams, the fact that he had the will to come back shows me he has it in him. I know when my Brother died, I was in a rut same thing happened when I lost all 3 of my Dogs(I know crazy but I'm a Dog person).

Apr 29, 2017 at 11:10 PM

#10

AB81Rules
Hall of Fame
Posts: 33,978

Originally posted by JBrack:

Originally posted by AB81Rules:
No disrespect but saying Williams quit because of his sisters death is a red flag is a bit harsh IMO.

Yeah that rubbed me wrong too. I didn't care for that judgmental comment. I actually saw a special on that and he could just never get over the fact that it wasn't his fault. He thought he could have done more somehow. She was misdiagnosed at the hospital as being severely dehydrated. She was actually having heart attacks and later died. Meanwhile he is becoming a success and all he can think about is his sister and he starts to feel guilty about his success. He finally learned how to cope and accept the fact it wasn't his fault and thats what healed him and troubled him. Very touching story!

If he had just quit like Anthony Davis did, then came back, and quit again, then ok, but not because his sister died. I agree with you JBrack.

Apr 29, 2017 at 11:11 PM

#11

AB81Rules
Hall of Fame
Posts: 33,978

And this may be a weird thing to say but I'll take Joe Williams over Joe Mixon any day of the week, I lose respect when a Man lays his hand on a Woman. That's the reason I wouldn't have drafted him.

Apr 30, 2017 at 12:00 AM

#12

fryet
Veteran
Posts: 3,317

Originally posted by AB81Rules:
No disrespect but saying Williams quit because of his sisters death is a red flag is a bit harsh IMO.

It isn't like she had died in the past year, it had happened 10 years prior. One has to wonder if it will continue to be an issue for the rest of his life.

Apr 30, 2017 at 12:06 AM

#13

Andra
Veteran
Posts: 2,994

MD, thanks for the breakdown, as always very insightful. I'm in full agreement about Foster, I believe he was our riskiest pick of the draft. I'm taking a softer line on Beathard and Williams though maybe for know other reason than I want to believe. I want to believe Williams went through a tough time in his life and now he's ready to play ball. And I want to believe Shanahan is a QB guru that sees something in Beathard and is going to hone his talent. Only time will tell, but a boy can dream.
I give this draft a B. Not perfect, but not bad. I love the extra 2nd and 3rd round picks next year. gives them some good draft capital for moving up to grab a player they really love or just more early round picks.

Apr 30, 2017 at 12:18 AM

#14

Andra
Veteran
Posts: 2,994

Originally posted by fryet:
Originally posted by AB81Rules:
No disrespect but saying Williams quit because of his sisters death is a red flag is a bit harsh IMO.

It isn't like she had died in the past year, it had happened 10 years prior. One has to wonder if it will continue to be an issue for the rest of his life.

Unresolved issues don't just go away over time. They will always be there to fester until they are dealt with. I hope his demons have been handled and he's ready to play.