Deshaun Watson, QB, Clemson - Legit alternative to Jared Goff in 2017?

Originally posted by Dakes44:
You probably failed to take out Kizer's hurricane game as well.

No, I took the ND vs. NC State game out as well. Those are Kizer's stats averaged across 11 games (excluding the hurricane game).

Originally posted by jcs:

Nice breakdown. More I watch his game more comfortable w/ the idea taking him at 2.

Again, remember that Trubisky faced none of the top 15 defenses in the country while Watson faced four of them. Pretty important distinction given Trubisky's lack of a track record.

Originally posted by TheBlueHell:
Again, remember that Trubisky faced none of the top 15 defenses in the country while Watson faced four of them. Pretty important distinction given Trubisky's lack of a track record.

Boston College does not have a better defense than Stanford even though it's rated in the top 15 in yards allowed per game. BC plays a lot of bad teams (Massachusetts, Wagner, Buffalo, Syracuse, Connecticut, Maryland).

North Carolina played some cupcakes, but they also played Georgia (#16), Virginia Tech (#18), Miami (#20), Florida State (#22), and North Carolina State (#24) so it's not like Trubisky hasn't played any good defenses. He doesn't have the best supporting cast in college football around him on offense as a crutch either.

Funny coincidence that you picked top 15 as the cutoff. Clemson played 7 top 25 defenses (based on yards against) while North Carolina played 5.

Originally posted by eastcoast49ersfan:
Boston College does not have a better defense than Stanford even though it's rated in the top 15 in yards allowed per game. BC plays a lot of bad teams (Massachusetts, Wagner, Buffalo, Syracuse, Connecticut, Maryland).

North Carolina played some cupcakes, but they also played Georgia (#16), Virginia Tech (#18), Miami (#20), Florida State (#22), and North Carolina State (#24) so it's not like Trubisky hasn't played any good defenses. He doesn't have the best supporting cast in college football around him on offense as a crutch either.

Funny coincidence that you picked top 15 as the cutoff. Clemson played 7 top 25 defenses (based on yards against) while North Carolina played 5.

What was his record against these teams? How many of these teams finished in the top 25?

Originally posted by eastcoast49ersfan:
Players get drafted based on their skillsets and potential, not their college stats. If Watson was 6'5 230 (Wentz's size) and put up those stats, I'd be completely fine taking him at #2 even though his arm strength is probably a little worse than Wentz's. If Watson put up those numbers and had Mahomes' or Kizer's arm strength, he'd probably be the #1 pick.

Trubisky was statistically a better QB than Watson this year (more efficient by far if you take out the game he played in a hurricane). If you're equating stats with draft position, I assume Trubisky is your top choice?

If he truly does come out of the combine at 6-3 220 with 4.5 speed would you then consider taking him at #2?

Originally posted by jcs:

Originally posted by eastcoast49ersfan:
Players get drafted based on their skillsets and potential, not their college stats. If Watson was 6'5 230 (Wentz's size) and put up those stats, I'd be completely fine taking him at #2 even though his arm strength is probably a little worse than Wentz's. If Watson put up those numbers and had Mahomes' or Kizer's arm strength, he'd probably be the #1 pick.

Trubisky was statistically a better QB than Watson this year (more efficient by far if you take out the game he played in a hurricane). If you're equating stats with draft position, I assume Trubisky is your top choice?

If he truly does come out of the combine at 6-3 220 with 4.5 speed would you then consider taking him at #2?

As a WR, sure.

Originally posted by eastcoast49ersfan:
He was better across the board statistically. You're probably ignoring the fact that Watson played 15 games while Trubisky played 13, including 1 in a hurricane that should be excluded from any comparisons. Without the hurricane game:

Trubisky:
308 passing yards per game
70.3% completion rate
8.9 yards per attempt
7.5 TD/INT ratio
167.1 passer rating
2.5 passing TDs, 0.3 INTs per game
26 rushing yards, 0.4 TDs per game

Watson:
306 passing yards per game
67.0% completion rate
7.9 yards per attempt
2.4 TD/INT ratio
151.1 passer rating
2.7 passing TDs, 1.1 INTs per game
42 rushing yards, 0.6 TDs per game

Kizer:
261 passing yards per game
60.6% completion rate
8.6 yards per attempt
3.3 TD/INT ratio
152.8 passer rating
2.4 passing TDs, 0.7 INTs per game
42 rushing yards, 0.7 TDs per game

Watson and Kizer were more prolific runners than Trubisky and had more combined rushing/passing TDs, but Trubisky was the most efficient of the 3 by far and the most accurate. Kizer and Watson are a much closer comparison statistically which is interesting because Watson had far more talent around him this year.

If you're going to make up statistics by taking out their worst games then you need to do the same with Watson.

Originally posted by Kolohe:

Originally posted by jcs:

Originally posted by eastcoast49ersfan:
Players get drafted based on their skillsets and potential, not their college stats. If Watson was 6'5 230 (Wentz's size) and put up those stats, I'd be completely fine taking him at #2 even though his arm strength is probably a little worse than Wentz's. If Watson put up those numbers and had Mahomes' or Kizer's arm strength, he'd probably be the #1 pick.

Trubisky was statistically a better QB than Watson this year (more efficient by far if you take out the game he played in a hurricane). If you're equating stats with draft position, I assume Trubisky is your top choice?

If he truly does come out of the combine at 6-3 220 with 4.5 speed would you then consider taking him at #2?

As a WR, sure.

What's your reasoning why he can't be an NFL QB?

Originally posted by jcs:
If you're going to make up statistics by taking out their worst games then you need to do the same with Watson.

Did Watson play in a hurricane game that isn't applicable to 99% of NFL games the way Kizer and Trubisky both did?

Originally posted by leonbanton:
Both Winston and Matt Ryan had more int's than Watson their last season.

Both Winston and Ryan also played in pro-style offenses which had them consistently making more difficult throws.

Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:
Did Watson play in a hurricane game that isn't applicable to 99% of NFL games the way Kizer and Trubisky both did?

You play the hand that's delt. To be comparing numbers also while taking out their worst games and leaving in Watsons is erroneous. Keep in the hurricane games and then compare them or if you are going to do them a favor by taking out their worst games then you need to do the same for Watson to get a fair evaluation.

Originally posted by jcs:
You play the hand that's delt. To be comparing numbers also while taking out their worst games and leaving in Watsons is erroneous. Keep in the hurricane games and then compare them or if you are going to do them a favor by taking out their worst games then you need to do the same for Watson to get a fair evaluation.

Also, Watson played in the very same type of hurricane game the previous season against ND and didn't totally s**t the bed like Trubisky.

Originally posted by jcs:

Originally posted by eastcoast49ersfan:
He was better across the board statistically. You're probably ignoring the fact that Watson played 15 games while Trubisky played 13, including 1 in a hurricane that should be excluded from any comparisons. Without the hurricane game:

Trubisky:
308 passing yards per game
70.3% completion rate
8.9 yards per attempt
7.5 TD/INT ratio
167.1 passer rating
2.5 passing TDs, 0.3 INTs per game
26 rushing yards, 0.4 TDs per game

Watson:
306 passing yards per game
67.0% completion rate
7.9 yards per attempt
2.4 TD/INT ratio
151.1 passer rating
2.7 passing TDs, 1.1 INTs per game
42 rushing yards, 0.6 TDs per game

Kizer:
261 passing yards per game
60.6% completion rate
8.6 yards per attempt
3.3 TD/INT ratio
152.8 passer rating
2.4 passing TDs, 0.7 INTs per game
42 rushing yards, 0.7 TDs per game

Watson and Kizer were more prolific runners than Trubisky and had more combined rushing/passing TDs, but Trubisky was the most efficient of the 3 by far and the most accurate. Kizer and Watson are a much closer comparison statistically which is interesting because Watson had far more talent around him this year.

If you're going to make up statistics by taking out their worst games then you need to do the same with Watson.

Watson didn't play in the Carolinas during the hurricane weekend when no starting QBs cracked 100 yards. Otherwise, I would extend the same treatment to him. The better question is why anyone would include the Virginia Tech game when making comparisons between Trubisky and other players. He's never going to have to play in those conditions again in his career.

Originally posted by eastcoast49ersfan:
Boston College does not have a better defense than Stanford even though it's rated in the top 15 in yards allowed per game. BC plays a lot of bad teams (Massachusetts, Wagner, Buffalo, Syracuse, Connecticut, Maryland).

North Carolina played some cupcakes, but they also played Georgia (#16), Virginia Tech (#18), Miami (#20), Florida State (#22), and North Carolina State (#24) so it's not like Trubisky hasn't played any good defenses. He doesn't have the best supporting cast in college football around him on offense as a crutch either.

Funny coincidence that you picked top 15 as the cutoff. Clemson played 7 top 25 defenses (based on yards against) while North Carolina played 5.

lol now you're parsing the opponents' opponents in an effort to prop up your guy, even after I told you that Trubisky was fortunate to not have to play two of the best three teams in his own conference. Spare me the Stanford talk, as they were clearly down this year to the point where the best player on the team skipped that bowl game. BC has had a solid defensive tradition for a while now, so not sure why you'd be shocked that they'd rank highly.

And it's not a "funny coincidence" that I pointed out that Watson had to play 2 top 10 defenses and 4 top 15 defenses in total compared to none in either range for Trubisky. You can't give Trubisky credit for playing #18 VT if you're going to just throw out the results of that game because of the weather, but you can surely give Watson credit for torching that defense when he played them. If you think that Bama and Ohio St were comparable to Miami/FSU (and the Noles were walking wounded on D in that UNC game)/NCST on defense this year, then you lose all credibility, which is why I highlighted the elite teams that Watson played.