The Draft Lottery Thread

If we are drafting around 10 we still have a shot at one of the Notre Dame kids, Stanley or Smith....but it will be close. Let's hope a bunch of WR's and DB's jump up the boards.

Originally posted by mayo49:
We're probably out of the Goff sweepstakes now with the win over Atlanta.

Most likely yes. I'd rather shore up the OLine first. Maybe one of the other QBs might fall to us in the second rd.

Originally posted by mayo49:
We're probably out of the Goff sweepstakes now with the win over Atlanta.

Thank god.

Originally posted by 9er4lyphe:

Originally posted by mayo49:
We're probably out of the Goff sweepstakes now with the win over Atlanta.

Most likely yes. I'd rather shore up the OLine first. Maybe one of the other QBs might fall to us in the second rd.

In all honesty, they're all 2nd round QBs. But a couple will be drafted in the top 15 just because they're QBs.

No franchise saviors at QB in this draft. Just some dudes like any other year.

Each win could drop us ~4 spots with how close teams are bunched slightly under .500. Moving from 8 to 12 every round is probably worth more than our 2nd round pick. Winning against the Falcons wasn't worth giving up a 2nd round pick in my opinion but that's just me...

And last year there was a big drop off between 10 and 15. It's too early to tell if there will be a big drop off this year but I have 7-8 guys I want and it doesn't look like any will make it to 15 at this point.

It amazes me how many crap teams are around this year. In theory we could have 3-4 wins and pick outside the top 10.

Originally posted by eastcoast49ersfan:
And last year there was a big drop off between 10 and 15. It's too early to tell if there will be a big drop off this year but I have 7-8 guys I want and it doesn't look like any will make it to 15 at this point.

this

Yeah, that win wasn't the greatest thing to happen. I mean, the Forty-Niners won and I'm always going to be happy about that, but looking a the bigger picture the win may eventually push us outside the Top 3, maybe even the top 10; the QB's won't be available there.

Here are the latest 2016 NFL Draft standings

1. Detroit Lions (1-7) - .535
2. Cleveland Browns (2-7) - .534
3. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-6) - .477
4. Tennessee Titans (2-6) - .489
5. San Diego Chargers (2-6) - .504
6. Baltimore Ravens (2-6) - .511
7. Chicago Bears (2-5) - .504
8. Dallas Cowboys (2-6) - .562
9. San Francisco 49ers (3-6) - .542
10. Miami Dolphins (3-5) - .484
11. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-5) - .504
12. Kansas City Chiefs (3-5) - .504
13. Houston Texans (3-5) - .515
14. Washington (3-5) - .528

I'm sure most people have their eyes on a QB, so let's look at the QB situations of the teams around us:

Detroit - Still seem committed to Stafford, but that could change
Browns - Not sold on Manziel..Will be in the market for a franchise QB.
Jaguars - Committed to Blake Bortles
Titans - Committed to Marcus Mariota
Chargers - Philip Rivers is their franchise QB
Ravens - Joe Flacco is their franchise QB
Bears - Strangely committed to Cutler, but that could change
Cowboys - Romo is the franchise QB. They're in win-now mode, will not choose a QB.
Dolphins - Committed to Tannehill
Bucs - Committed to Winston
Chiefs - Committed to Smith
Texans - No franchise QB on the roster. Will definitely be in the market for one.
Redskins - Not committed to a QB, but Cousins is playing decent. RGIII is done. Could go QB, but I think they roll with Cousins.

Out of these teams, only the Browns and Texans are virtual locks to choose a QB with their top pick imo. So it's not crucial that the 49ers have to have the #1 pick, or even a Top 5 pick to get one of the top QB prospects. This draft order will change by the end of the year, but so far it seems most teams have already committed to a QB.

Somebody will fall in love with a QB and trade up for one of them.

Anybody feel like breaking down the OL and WR status for the teams drafting top 15?

For instance...

If Joe Thomas stays in Cle, and Maziel looks better, there's a good shot Cle goes WR. So a position of need drops to us.

The more teams tha go after WR's and CB's the better for us.

Titans will win a few more games if Mariota plays like yesterday.

Originally posted by jreff22:
Anybody feel like breaking down the OL and WR status for the teams drafting top 15?

For instance...

If Joe Thomas stays in Cle, and Maziel looks better, there's a good shot Cle goes WR. So a position of need drops to us.

The more teams tha go after WR's and CB's the better for us.

Unfortunately, there may only be one WR who deserves to be taken in the top half of the first round (Treadwell). There are probably 2 corners/safeties (Ramsey/Hargreaves). I'm not sure that a #1 WR or #1 CB isn't a need for us.

There seems to be a pretty steep dropoff after pick 10 or so, but it's still early so that could change.

1. Bosa
2. Tunsil
3. Nkemdiche
4. Stanley
5. Goff
6. Lynch
7. Ramsey
8. Hargreaves
9. Smith
10. Treadwell
11. Jack (assuming injury checks out)
12. ??? Leonard Floyd?

The QB's are wild cards at this point, but if we win a few more games, we'll blow any chance of drafting one of the top defensive linemen or offensive linemen. There are only 2 elite offensive linemen at this point and neither one is going to drop out of the top 10 because other teams reach for need.

Bears win with 2 more winnable games left on their schedule (vs 49ers, vs Det).

Catch 22, you want the bad teams that will be looking for a QB to keep winning, but at the same time the bad teams that have recently drafted a QB or have established starters (BAL, DAL, SD) will arguably targeting the same players as the 49ers, who have a lot of holes on the roster; they should just go BPA.