The Draft Lottery Thread

Originally posted by WRATHman44:
I think it's becoming less likely that he (Wentz) makes it to the 2nd.

Good.

Originally posted by mayo49:

Originally posted by WRATHman44:
incorrect statement; the Browns have the next highest SOS of any team currently in the top 5 in draft order. Of course, their SOS would drop if they win on Sunday, so we'd need some significant SOS help. It's unlikely that they win; it's even less likely that all the SOS stars line up, but it's definitely possible. It's even possible for us to pass the cowboys, even if they also lose.

I'd be a miracle to jump CLE by SOS.

Not miraculous; just fortunate. SOS can jump or fall by .1 fairly reasonably in one week. We'd need ours to go down by that much and Cleveland's to go up by that much. Of course it is unlikely, but not unprecedented or even once-in-a-decade rare.

I honestly think no matter what, we either end up with a franchise QB or a guy that is a day one starter. I only wish Nkemdiche didn't screw up so bad. I doubt San Diego takes a QB. Granted they could start trying to develop an heir apparent to Rivers, but they need so much help on that team, I doubt they draft a QB. I think Tennessee takes Laremy Tunsil. It really all falls on Cleveland. If Cleveland passes on a QB, we get our guy. If they take a QB, then we are in trouble because I think Dallas would be foolish to not draft a quarterback. When you struggle to win a game after your starter goes down, it's so evident that they need to address that position that I'd honestly be shocked if Dallas didn't take either Goff or Lynch.

If CLE was on the fence before, they're probably not now.

"Coach Mike Pettine admitted that Johnny Manziel's partying "is a problem" after the quarterback was again caught on video drinking on Christmas Eve this past week."

http://www.rotoworld.com/headlines/nfl/329142/Again?-Manziel-caught-partying-Christmas-Eve

Originally posted by LifelongNiner:

I honestly think no matter what, we either end up with a franchise QB or a guy that is a day one starter. I only wish Nkemdiche didn't screw up so bad. I doubt San Diego takes a QB. Granted they could start trying to develop an heir apparent to Rivers, but they need so much help on that team, I doubt they draft a QB. I think Tennessee takes Laremy Tunsil. It really all falls on Cleveland. If Cleveland passes on a QB, we get our guy. If they take a QB, then we are in trouble because I think Dallas would be foolish to not draft a quarterback. When you struggle to win a game after your starter goes down, it's so evident that they need to address that position that I'd honestly be shocked if Dallas didn't take either Goff or Lynch.

Early in the season, SOS jumps around a lot more than it does now. Now SOS is based on 15 weeks of results (240 games) so each game has a smaller impact on SOS. Plus, the only way SOS matters is if the 49ers lose and the Browns win this week which would increase our SOS and reduce theirs. I'd have to look into it to see what results we would need to pass the Browns, but I don't think it's likely.

Originally posted by slowriot:
If CLE was on the fence before, they're probably not now.

"Coach Mike Pettine admitted that Johnny Manziel's partying "is a problem" after the quarterback was again caught on video drinking on Christmas Eve this past week."

http://www.rotoworld.com/headlines/nfl/329142/Again?-Manziel-caught-partying-Christmas-Eve

Oh Cleveland....

The funny thing is, Johnny Manziel having a drink, on Christmas Eve no less, isn't a crime. It's just that he refuses to do anything that will give that organization in confidence in his decision making and in him keeping it together.

Originally posted by eastcoast49ersfan:

Originally posted by LifelongNiner:
I honestly think no matter what, we either end up with a franchise QB or a guy that is a day one starter. I only wish Nkemdiche didn't screw up so bad. I doubt San Diego takes a QB. Granted they could start trying to develop an heir apparent to Rivers, but they need so much help on that team, I doubt they draft a QB. I think Tennessee takes Laremy Tunsil. It really all falls on Cleveland. If Cleveland passes on a QB, we get our guy. If they take a QB, then we are in trouble because I think Dallas would be foolish to not draft a quarterback. When you struggle to win a game after your starter goes down, it's so evident that they need to address that position that I'd honestly be shocked if Dallas didn't take either Goff or Lynch.

Early in the season, SOS jumps around a lot more than it does now. Now SOS is based on 15 weeks of results (240 games) so each game has a smaller impact on SOS. Plus, the only way SOS matters is if the 49ers lose and the Browns win this week which would increase our SOS and reduce theirs. I'd have to look into it to see what results we would need to pass the Browns, but I don't think it's likely.

I don't know what the SOS will be when it's all said it done, but I am not optimistic that we will leapfrog Cleveland. I think it's more likely we can get up to four ahead of Dallas. When I stated we are in trouble, I meant in terms of getting one of the top two guys. But all isn't lost, because I think we can take a day one starter at 5 if we remain where we are.

Call me naive, but I don't think Cleveland goes qb again in the 1st.

Originally posted by est1985:
Call me naive, but I don't think Cleveland goes qb again in the 1st.

You're naive.

Reasons?

Who do you think they take? Bosa?

Originally posted by slowriot:

You're naive.

Reasons?

Who do you think they take? Bosa?

If Bosa is there, I think the Browns will take him. Hopefully Maziel doesn't go nuts on New Year's...

Originally posted by eastcoast49ersfan:

Originally posted by slowriot:
You're naive.

Reasons?

Who do you think they take? Bosa?

If Bosa is there, I think the Browns will take him. Hopefully Maziel doesn't go nuts on New Year's...

He should be there. I can't see TEN passing on Tunsil. Early days though.

Originally posted by slowriot:

Originally posted by est1985:

Call me naive, but I don't think Cleveland goes qb again in the 1st.

You're naive.

Reasons?

Who do you think they take? Bosa?

I just think they're weary of going down that path again. Not that manziel is the answer, but maybe they wait til later rounds to try their luck on a qb.

Originally posted by WRATHman44:
Not miraculous; just fortunate. SOS can jump or fall by .1 fairly reasonably in one week. We'd need ours to go down by that much and Cleveland's to go up by that much. Of course it is unlikely, but not unprecedented or even once-in-a-decade rare.

A Broncos win tonight would make a dent in a tie breaker with Dallas. Unfortunately, it wouldn't change anything VS the Browns.

Originally posted by NinerSickness:

Originally posted by WRATHman44:
Not miraculous; just fortunate. SOS can jump or fall by .1 fairly reasonably in one week. We'd need ours to go down by that much and Cleveland's to go up by that much. Of course it is unlikely, but not unprecedented or even once-in-a-decade rare.

A Broncos win tonight would make a dent in a tie breaker with Dallas. Unfortunately, it wouldn't change anything VS the Browns.

Denver will have to wake the hell up to make that happen.

Originally posted by LifelongNiner:

I honestly think no matter what, we either end up with a franchise QB or a guy that is a day one starter. I only wish Nkemdiche didn't screw up so bad. I doubt San Diego takes a QB. Granted they could start trying to develop an heir apparent to Rivers, but they need so much help on that team, I doubt they draft a QB. I think Tennessee takes Laremy Tunsil. It really all falls on Cleveland. If Cleveland passes on a QB, we get our guy. If they take a QB, then we are in trouble because I think Dallas would be foolish to not draft a quarterback. When you struggle to win a game after your starter goes down, it's so evident that they need to address that position that I'd honestly be shocked if Dallas didn't take either Goff or Lynch.

I don't know. Dallas could go BPA with their #1 and then grab a 2nd tier QB in rd 2.

Originally posted by slowriot:

Originally posted by est1985:

Call me naive, but I don't think Cleveland goes qb again in the 1st.

You're naive.

Reasons?

Who do you think they take? Bosa?

Very likely.

Pettine hates Manziel, but he's getting fired in less than 10 days. He's irrelevant and all this strong-arming Johnny will go away. He'll get his chance to open the season as the starter.