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Originally posted by Rascal:yeah right, as if we ever thought about going after a QB in round 2 last year.
Very good analysis. D is just a nice way of saying F in my opinion, so I guess you were being polite.
But, I don't agree with your picks. Center as the 1st pick is a no-no for me. Like you said, I would have gone for a proper impact player right off the bat in Melvin Gordon. Would have liked to take a WR in the 2nd round, I am fine with Jalen Strong if that's the guy you like. But, I definitely would have liked to pick up Bryce Petty. This is a complete shame, I was already hoping for Garappolo last year knowing Kap will bust out sooner rather than later. Again we have no QBs on the roster, is just ridiculous.
Originally posted by MadDog49er:MadDog recognizes dem Hogs!!!
Another draft year has come and gone, and honestly, the weekend felt anticlimactic to me. Some drafts are like that.
On the Niners' draft. In one word: Argh! And, I'll be honest with you- I think this draft will be the undoing of Trent Baalke. Baalke has a strong philosophy of being very patient with players to either recover from injury, or develop their game, to eventually make their mark. The list of players who have been redshirted has been lengthy in the past few drafts, as well as guys they feel will be contributors down the road. The problem with that philosophy is....it is down the road.
The team needs instant impact players...now. Which of these players are going to be instant impact players? Armstead? Tartt? Harold? Bell? Davis? Smelter? Pinion? Silverman? Brown? Anderson? I understand that teams should take some players that they believe will recover from injury and contribute after their first year, or some developmental guys that have upside. Maybe Baalke thinks that our team is so stocked with great players that nobody could be drafted and make an immediate impact. I see a roster that is aging quickly, and starting to lose some bodies. We have holes to fill, and there were guys in this draft that are very talented, and could have made a huge impact right away. We simply didn't make those choices, hence my disappointment.
Let's break them down one by one:
Armstead was my 49th best player in this draft. The upside- he could be the next Calais Campbell. The downside- he becomes a big stiffy. For a mid-first round pick, I can't miss on this pick. I need something that shows he was a dominant college player and that game translates to the pros. I don't see that in Armstead. He was largely a 3 tackle/game player in 2014, with 2.5 sacks. Good player, don't get me wrong. But, if you looked at a ton of football games, and you were given a piece of paper and said, "Write down 15-17 names of guys that you think will be a star in the NFL" I just don't think he's make the list.
That being said, I have long praised his play in the National Championship game against OSU. He was the best Oregon defender on the field, and played his butt off.
In the end, everyone knows that this is a projection pick- he will be a rotational player who maybe takes 15 snaps a game at this point. We hope he turns into a star. To me, is a mid-late second round value, not mid-first. Compare the difference in one pick between the 14th and 15th: Parker and Armstead. To me, there is a massive difference in value and performance.
Tartt is a really nice college player who may end up being a starter down the road (2-3 years) in the NFL. Had a solid Senior Bowl week, and has good coverage skills. Once again, nice player. WIth Bethea at SS, Tartt is riding pine for at least one year. We might see him in some sub-packages, but he might not hit the field barely at all in 2015. Bethea is signed through 2017, with pretty cap friendly numbers for a Pro-Bowler: 3 million, 4.5 million, 5.25 million. So, we added the fourth safety on our depth chart for a mid-second rounder. I don't get it.
I really like Eli Harold, and see a future stud edge player. He gave Ereck Flowers fits this year (the only player who Flowers struggled against). Super fast first step (1.56 10 yard split), and he is only 20 years old. In 2014, he is going to run behind at least two or three edge players (Smith, Lynch, maybe Brooks), so I am not sure how much playing time he is going to have.
So, in a breakdown of the top three picks, we pretty much have three players who are barely, if all, going to play in 2015. I have a problem with this.
In the fourth round, we pick up a tight end, in Blake Bell, who is a converted QB. Nice kid, good athlete, but little experience, and limited stats (16 catches in 12 games). This is a project player, plain and simple, and I can't see him making it on the field at all with Davis and McDonald in front of him. Maybe a few snaps in goalline position. I had Bell graded as a 6-7th rounder. Just not very good value.
The second pick of the fourth was Mike Davis, a player who had a better year in 2013, and ran for less than a thousand yards in 2014. Here is a big red flag to me. He ran behind two drafted OL in Robinson and Cann, and pulled off 4.9 yards/carry. In college, that is a very poor benchmark for a RB. I just didn't see much burst or explosiveness. He is tough, and good-sized. However, I don't see anything more than a mediocre change of pace back that makes little to no impact. Call me a skeptic on Davis.
Of the three fourth rounders, I like Smelter the best. I watched nearly all of the GT games this year, and he was clearly the better receiver between him and Waller. Smelter always seemed to make the key catches to keep drives alive. Good, reliable hands, a big target, finds seems on the field to sit down into. Much to like. The downside- he is STRICTLY a possession, intermediate route WR. There is no juice at all, and separation is going to be a challenge for him. The bigger immediate problem- he is not going to play in 2015 unless there is a miracle. His ACL was late in the year, and he is about 4 months removed from surgery. At best, he will be a PUP, but more than likely a redshirt candidate.
Quick question. Who was the 165th best eligible player in the NFL Draft. According to the 49ers, it is Bradley Pinion. NFLDraftScout ranked Pinion the 11th best punter in the NFL draft. We better hope they are wrong. Pinion finished 5th in the ACC in yards per punt. He did pick up a fairly large percentage of fair catches. Maybe Andy Lee's $2 million salary is something the team wants to dump. I just don't get the pick...at all.
Sorry to reference NFL Draft Scout too much, but they ranked Ian Silberman as the 47th best guard in this draft. He is a converted left tackle, and I have seen him play (I watched about 6 BC games this year). Someone in the front office must be related, because this is another headscratcher. Athletically, he fits into the 50th or so percentile for athleticism compared to OL at the combine. Going to have to rewatch some games to make a more complete observation.
Trenton Brown is a monstrous OT/G from Florida, who had a solid Senior Bowl week. Played alongside three other drafted OL for Florida this weekedn: Humphries, Garcia, Green. Amazing that offense was so dysfunctional with 4 NFL draftees. He is a Pittsburgh Steeler in size at 6'8 1/2", 355. Brown has 36 inch arms, which is enormous. Athletically, he is subpar, so he needs to kick inside. Might be a valuable swing OL down the road, as I think he can play a little RT in an emergency. Versatility huge with these late rounders. I like this pick.
I like Busta ("don't call me Rory") Anderson- I am sure the teachers loved that line in high school. Very good athlete. Fast, can split the seam. The problem- 61 career catches at South Carolina, and recurring hamstring and triceps injuries. He is injured all the time. Microscopic sized hands (less than 9"). He has practice squad written all over him.
Late rounders are late rounders, so I don't put too much value on them when establishing a final grade. For me, you have to hit on Rounds 1-4 with guys who either start, or are significant contributors that make a big difference on the team.
I hope I am wrong, and each of these guys becomes amazing players for the best franchise in the NFL. At the same time, I have to be real, objective, and put the pom-poms down. What I have seen this year in game action is what I must rely upon to grade players. This is one man's opinion. And that opinion is that Baalke is going to be in deep trouble with this cluster of players, because I see 2012 all over again in this group.
My grade: D (In this grade, I don't take additional future picks, nor undrafted free agents, into account. I only base it upon the players selected at their slots).
My draft when the Niners were on the clock (would have loved to have picked up Ty Lockett, Henry Anderson, David Parry along the way, but it is what it is).
1st Cameron Erving C
2nd Jaelen Strong WR
3rd Carl Davis DE
4th Jay Ajayi RB
4th Martrell Spaight ILB
4th Ifo Ekpre-Olomu CB
5th Tre McBride WR
6th Joey Mbu NT
7th BJ Finney C/G
7th Anthony Harris SS
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
My grade: D (In this grade, I don't take additional future picks, nor undrafted free agents, into account. I only base it upon the players selected at their slots).
My draft when the Niners were on the clock (would have loved to have picked up Ty Lockett, Henry Anderson, David Parry along the way, but it is what it is).
1st Cameron Erving C
2nd Jaelen Strong WR
3rd Carl Davis DE
4th Jay Ajayi RB
4th Martrell Spaight ILB
4th Ifo Ekpre-Olomu CB
5th Tre McBride WR
6th Joey Mbu NT
7th BJ Finney C/G
7th Anthony Harris SS