MadDog49er Notes Sunday March 22 | Page 4

MadDog49er · 2015-03-22T13:01:42-07:00

Another week of Pro-Days came and went, and like the onion, the draft is slowing being revealed as each layer is pulled. Here is my best fifty graded players for the week (minus DGB and Jameis Winston): 2015 NFL Draft Best 32 Board Pick Player School Position 1 Kevin White West Virginia WR 2 Vic Beasley Clemson LB 3 Leonard Williams USC DT 4 Dante Fowler Florida DE/LB 5 Shane Ray Missouri LB 6 Amari Cooper Alabama WR 7 Todd Gurley Georgia RB 8 Brandon Scherff Iowa G 9 DJ Humphries Florida OT 10 Danny Shelton Washington DT 11 Cameron Erving Florida St C 12 La'El Collins LSU OT/G 13 Melvin Gordon Wisconsin RB 14 Carl Davis Iowa DT 15 Paul Dawson TCU LB 16 Eddie Goldman Florida St DT 17 Malcom Brown Texas DT 18 DeVante Parker Louisville WR 19 Jaelen Strong Arizona St WR 20 Trae Waynes Michigan St CB 21 Marcus Mariota Oregon QB 22 Kevin Johnson Wake Forest CB 23 Ty Lockett Kansas St WR 24 Eli Harold Virginia DE/LB 25 Jay Ajayi Boise St RB 26 John Miller Louisville G 27 Laken Tomlinson Duke G 28 Owamagbe Odighizuwa UCLA DE/OLB 29 Stephone Anthony Clemson LB 30 Eric Kendricks UCLA LB 31 Randy Gregory Nebraska DE/LB 32 Marcus Hardison Arizona St DE/DT 33 Nate Orchard Utah DE/OLB 34 Tevin Coleman Indiana RB 35 Jalen Collins LSU CB 36 Ereck Flowers Miami OT 37 Andrus Peat Stanford OT 38 Arik Armstead Oregon DE/DT 39 PJ Williams Florida St CB 40 Damarious Randall Arizona St S 41 Quinten Rollins Miami (OH) CB/S 42 Jake Fisher Oregon OT 43 Maxx Williams Minnesota TE 44 Martrell Spaight Arkansas LB 45 Shaq Thompson Washington LB 46 Mario Edwards Florida St DE 47 Landon Collins Alabama S 48 Eric Rowe Utah S/CB 49 Denzel Perryman Miami LB 50 David Johnson Northern Iowa RB Notes: Vic Beasley has leapt up to number two in my grading. He is an unstoppable force on film, and with the added weight and strength shown this offseason, the sky is the limit for him. Shane Ray is still hurt, and his Pro Day numbers and workout showed. On film, he is a monster to deal with, and I expect him to return to full health soon. My only concern for him is a thin lower body limiting him from being the best at his position, but head to head with Fowler for second best edge rusher. I think Leonard Williams has all the physical tools to be a dominant player in the NFL. He runs a bit hot and cold for me rewatching games, and his play recognition is average at best. This one aspect will hold him back from being an elite superstar in the league, but he will still be terrific. My best OL is Brandon Scherff, but only at guard. He is NOT a left tackle, and putting him there would be not in anyone's best interest. He is better in tighter quarters, and surging downfield in tighter spaces. The best OT in my opinion is DJ Humphries. He certainly needs work in run blocking, but so did Joe Staley coming out of college. Humphries is the most athletic in shadowing his edge rusher, and is scratching the surface. Collins is a RT prospect, but I think he also is best suited moving inside. He struggles in some matchups against tough DE's. From this week: I watched safeties primarily this week (about 25-35 games...no joke), and I come away severely disappointed. Let's focus on the top graded safeties at their respected positions according to NFL Draft Scout, Cody Prewitt and Landon Collins. In their matchup against each other, Collins allowed two late TDs against Mississippi which cost them the game. The first came when he took a horrible angle and go beat deep. The second one, he simply could not get over in time to break up the pass along the sideline. Both coverages were his responsibility. I saw three other games where he also struggled in coverage, and gave up critical chunks of yardage and TDs that were on his duty. He needs to play close to the LOS, to maximize his skills. The media has group think on this guy, and he is NOT a first round quality safety by any means. As for Prewitt, he appears as if he is allergic to tackling. He badly missed three tackles in one game against Alabama, and at least three more against Auburn. He simply wants to play the outfield, and the problem, like Collins, is that he gets beat deep too often. In the last minute of the game against Alabama, he retreated awkwardly on a deep post rout against Amari Cooper, and mistimed his jump. The ball flew well beyond his reach, but luckily for Mississippi, S. Golson made the pick to seal the game for the Rebels. Prewitt does not like to attack the LOS, unlike Collins, and although he covers a lot of ground, simply does not make plays enough to satisfy as the best FS. So, I turn to Damarious Randall of Arizona State. This kid is shorter, smaller, but runs like the wind and loves to make contact. However, the first half of the Arizona game shows some issues he has to clean up. He gambled on a quick pass to the flat, got there late, and the WR was off the races. He also allowed another TD reception on his dime later. At least he has some moxie, and maybe some of these things can be cleared up. Maybe one of the conversion guys (Eric Rowe and Quinten Rollins) can emerge as a stud safety. For now, I have slammed four of these guys into the 40-50 best players, Prewitt on the outside, hoping that something emerges. I did not see enough from three Penn State games to convince me that Adrian Amos is a top level safety, and the same goes for Anthony Harris (although he loves to tackle), Durell Eskridge, Gerod Holliman (no tackling skills), Jordan Richards (why did this kid come out?), and Kurtis Drummond (beaten like a drum in numerous games). Some of the guys I like better than others on tape include Ibraheim Campbell of Northwestern (but he is not a special player), Chris Hackett of TCU (great on film but had a disastrous combine), and James Sample of Louisville, who is climbing up the board for me. In the end, this group is a collective dumpster fire, on par with the horrible list of TE and QB prospects in this draft. I will continue to look at other safety prospects, but ending on a positive note: I watched Henry Anderson in three games this week, every snap, and he is seriously underrated in this draft. I have him as the 52nd best player, moving up. He is a half-step slow from making twice as many sacks and tackles in chasing down RBs, which reminded me of JJ Watt (who has a similar build). Watching some games of Watt playing at Wisconsin this week, I witnessed that similar half-step slow from making play after play: Ex; A hit instead of a sack (although Watt was still better than Anderson, no doubt). Anderson is no Watt, but he can be a poor-man's Watt, and for a third round value, some team is going to get a stud 34DE. Also watched his line-mate David Parry, who had a great Pro Day. Terrific against Notre Dame and Utah, and I saw the same high quality of play in other games in previous weeks. Going to be a top 125 player, and maybe has the strength to hold up as a 34 NT with upside as a fourth rounder if the Niners see him on the clock. Not sure why so many people are down on Nate Orchard. I see a guy who aced the season, and he was a stud against Arizona State, Andreus Peat and Stanford, then has a great Senior Bowl week, and a decent combine. This guy is not half of the athlete of Randy Gregory, but makes more plays, has better on the field recognition, and seems to always be in the right place at the right time. Good news for Todd Gurley fans: It looks like his recovery is going very well, and with that news, I have jumped him inside the top ten best graded players, as part of that grade is based on health. Hoping he is ready for Week One. Got a feeling he is going to be wearing Purple and Gold. Finally, in watching a ton of Randall film this week for ASU, I couldn't help smile every time I see Jaelen Strong. He is so good. The ability to make huge plays at huge times, the skills to snatch the ball out of the air, the blocking, the NFL ready body. To me, he is on the heals of Parker to be my number three WR in this draft. In an added note: After White, Cooper, Parker, Strong and Lockett, I have a dramatic drop-off to my number six WR. The value WR in this draft class is Baylor's Antwan Goodley. He is built like a rock, but runs like the wind. He gave Trae Waynes a headache in their bowl game matchup, probably the best WR I saw compete against Waynes this year. Cheers.

Mar 23, 2015 at 1:24 PM

#46

MadDog49er
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Posts: 19,400

Originally posted by flynhayn15:
It looks like the free agency market has dried up in terms of corners that can start for us on day 1.(I don't feel comfortable with Wright and Cook starting 16 games for our defense) It looks like our starters will be Brock and Johnson unless we draft a starting corner.(Baring a trade) Out of the top 4 corners in your rankings, which could start on day 1 four our team, and what are the chances we could find a starter that could beat out Johnson if we wait until the 3rd round to draft him.

I think Waynes starts right away at a pretty high level, and Peters probably second best for initial impact. However, I think Johnson and Collins passes Peters in the long run. PJ Williams next. Don't think Jones is ready for another year.

Mar 23, 2015 at 1:26 PM

#47

MadDog49er
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Posts: 19,400

Originally posted by stonecold590:
MD you have Shaq Johnson in the 30s. Every thing I hear about him is just how athletic he is and how versatile he is. Could he be drafted in round 2 and molded into a good will or Sam lb?

Shaq Thompson is a great football player, but I have no idea where he is going to play. In the end, maybe OLB in a Tampa-2. He has to gain some weight. Don't know what he is waiting for.

Mar 23, 2015 at 1:27 PM

#48

MadDog49er
Hall of Fame
Posts: 19,400

Originally posted by SoCold:
two words
Kevin Johnson

Don't need to sell me. He is very good.

Mar 23, 2015 at 1:59 PM

#49

communist
Veteran
Posts: 12,475

Originally posted by MadDog49er:
I think Conley's best football is ahead of him. I see a guy with a real burst when he plays, and have him as late third round value in a deep WR class. Waller is so tall, and does his best work along the sidelines. Red zone target for sure. Not as high on him as others. Fifth round value.

thank you very much.

Would you even go so far as to say that Carl Davis has got more upside than Leonard Williams?

Would you mind to tell me your grade for:
-ILB AJ Tarpley, Stanford
-ILB Amarlo Herrera, Georga
-ILB John Timu, Washington
-ILB Zack Vigil, Utah State
please? any crucial comments about their coverage abilities?

BTW, tell us your paypal-nick please. We need to donate you something for your work here, me in particular. Perhaps we should do the same for thl and jonnydel and all the other guys who apply so much effort in order to provide so much in-depth knowledge.for us

[ Edited by communist on Mar 23, 2015 at 5:50 PM ]

Mar 23, 2015 at 9:57 PM

#50

FastEddyD
Veteran
Posts: 102

Without the knee injury where would you have Gurley on your big board? Do you see him as one of the better backs to come out in long time?

Mar 23, 2015 at 10:26 PM

#51

Dblj55
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Posts: 247

Great stuff MD. Every year you keep us informed. Thank you.

Mar 23, 2015 at 10:43 PM

#52

4evrfan
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Posts: 3,061

9'ers should hirte you, MadDog

Mar 24, 2015 at 12:44 AM

#53

thetruthhurts
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Posts: 312

MadDog,

Thanks for the update, always appreciated. How does Goodley compare to Tre Mcbride and what round do you see them being drafted ? Also how about Titus Davis, what are your thoughts on him ? Thanks. I hope life is treating you well.

Mar 25, 2015 at 5:20 PM

#54

MadDog49er
Hall of Fame
Posts: 19,400

Originally posted by communist:
thank you very much.

Would you even go so far as to say that Carl Davis has got more upside than Leonard Williams?

Would you mind to tell me your grade for:
-ILB AJ Tarpley, Stanford
-ILB Amarlo Herrera, Georga
-ILB John Timu, Washington
-ILB Zack Vigil, Utah State
please? any crucial comments about their coverage abilities?

BTW, tell us your paypal-nick please. We need to donate you something for your work here, me in particular. Perhaps we should do the same for thl and jonnydel and all the other guys who apply so much effort in order to provide so much in-depth knowledge.for us

Leonard Williams has more upside than anyone in the draft. He is tall, long, strong, can get skinny through the line, etc. He has ALL the tools. However, instincts are instincts, and I think average instincts plus a stud physical package equals a strong, but not perennial All-Pro selection. I see him below White and Beasley at this point.

I love Davis,and feel his best football is ahead of him. When players ace the post season bowl game, then dominate Senior Bowl week, and have a strong Combine, this is checking off the boxes for me. He is big, long, and has excellent strength. He destroyed a lot of good lineman during Senior Bowl practice, and I graded him the best player of the game. He was disruptive in the backfield all game long.

Of the LBs, to me, Vigil is the only draftable player. Think late 6th on. That being said, Herrera has a helluva season. He was a great college player.

I do this for fun, When it is no longer fun, I will stop.

[ Edited by MadDog49er on Mar 25, 2015 at 6:04 PM ]

Mar 25, 2015 at 5:36 PM

#55

MadDog49er
Hall of Fame
Posts: 19,400

Originally posted by thetruthhurts:
MadDog,

Thanks for the update, always appreciated. How does Goodley compare to Tre Mcbride and what round do you see them being drafted ? Also how about Titus Davis, what are your thoughts on him ? Thanks. I hope life is treating you well.

McBride is long, Goodley is short and stocky. But, can he fly down the field, and his stocky body is great for keeping CBs away from the body. He gave Waynes more fits than anyone I saw this year.

Mar 25, 2015 at 5:38 PM

#56

MadDog49er
Hall of Fame
Posts: 19,400

Originally posted by FastEddyD:
Without the knee injury where would you have Gurley on your big board? Do you see him as one of the better backs to come out in long time?

Because backs are so de-emphasized, it is hard for me to crack a top five. I have him as seventh best overall, believing in a full recovery. I had him much lower before. The word is that he is looking good to go soon.

Mar 25, 2015 at 5:39 PM

#57

socal9er42
Veteran
Posts: 4,621

You've got 4 DL between 10 and 17. If the FO knows/believes Cowboy is going to retire, it seems like there might be a good match somewhere in there. (Maybe [probably] not a direct replacement for JS, but a good/great player to throw into the mix)

Mar 25, 2015 at 5:48 PM

#58

mrwoodz
Veteran
Posts: 196

Personally, I kind of buy that we have enough options at DL that with our HC being a DL coach he will believe we don't need high pick on DL. (I appreciate it's more Baalke's choice though.)

But I do think another CB and S, despite our four DBs from last year, makes sense, a WR that can replace Boldin as I don't think we have that type, a RB (as always), a potential OT, backup QB and ILB.

My question would be is which positions do you think offer most sense in first. (Maybe certain position doesn't have as much depth this year, etc. And which positions offer good depth, particularly ones you think we'd have a need for.)

Thanks for the work as always.

Mar 25, 2015 at 5:59 PM

#59

midrdan
Veteran
Posts: 1,982

MD - Dawson seems to have shot up your rankings. Who does he compare to at the next level and, based on your rankings here, can the 49ers afford to trade back and still get him or is he worthy of a hard look at 15?

Mar 25, 2015 at 6:05 PM

#60

MadDog49er
Hall of Fame
Posts: 19,400

Originally posted by socal9er42:
You've got 4 DL between 10 and 17. If the FO knows/believes Cowboy is going to retire, it seems like there might be a good match somewhere in there. (Maybe [probably] not a direct replacement for JS, but a good/great player to throw into the mix)

Lot of good DL that match the 34 defense this year.