MadDog49er Notes Sunday March 22

MadDog49er · 2015-03-22T13:01:42-07:00

Another week of Pro-Days came and went, and like the onion, the draft is slowing being revealed as each layer is pulled. Here is my best fifty graded players for the week (minus DGB and Jameis Winston): 2015 NFL Draft Best 32 Board Pick Player School Position 1 Kevin White West Virginia WR 2 Vic Beasley Clemson LB 3 Leonard Williams USC DT 4 Dante Fowler Florida DE/LB 5 Shane Ray Missouri LB 6 Amari Cooper Alabama WR 7 Todd Gurley Georgia RB 8 Brandon Scherff Iowa G 9 DJ Humphries Florida OT 10 Danny Shelton Washington DT 11 Cameron Erving Florida St C 12 La'El Collins LSU OT/G 13 Melvin Gordon Wisconsin RB 14 Carl Davis Iowa DT 15 Paul Dawson TCU LB 16 Eddie Goldman Florida St DT 17 Malcom Brown Texas DT 18 DeVante Parker Louisville WR 19 Jaelen Strong Arizona St WR 20 Trae Waynes Michigan St CB 21 Marcus Mariota Oregon QB 22 Kevin Johnson Wake Forest CB 23 Ty Lockett Kansas St WR 24 Eli Harold Virginia DE/LB 25 Jay Ajayi Boise St RB 26 John Miller Louisville G 27 Laken Tomlinson Duke G 28 Owamagbe Odighizuwa UCLA DE/OLB 29 Stephone Anthony Clemson LB 30 Eric Kendricks UCLA LB 31 Randy Gregory Nebraska DE/LB 32 Marcus Hardison Arizona St DE/DT 33 Nate Orchard Utah DE/OLB 34 Tevin Coleman Indiana RB 35 Jalen Collins LSU CB 36 Ereck Flowers Miami OT 37 Andrus Peat Stanford OT 38 Arik Armstead Oregon DE/DT 39 PJ Williams Florida St CB 40 Damarious Randall Arizona St S 41 Quinten Rollins Miami (OH) CB/S 42 Jake Fisher Oregon OT 43 Maxx Williams Minnesota TE 44 Martrell Spaight Arkansas LB 45 Shaq Thompson Washington LB 46 Mario Edwards Florida St DE 47 Landon Collins Alabama S 48 Eric Rowe Utah S/CB 49 Denzel Perryman Miami LB 50 David Johnson Northern Iowa RB Notes: Vic Beasley has leapt up to number two in my grading. He is an unstoppable force on film, and with the added weight and strength shown this offseason, the sky is the limit for him. Shane Ray is still hurt, and his Pro Day numbers and workout showed. On film, he is a monster to deal with, and I expect him to return to full health soon. My only concern for him is a thin lower body limiting him from being the best at his position, but head to head with Fowler for second best edge rusher. I think Leonard Williams has all the physical tools to be a dominant player in the NFL. He runs a bit hot and cold for me rewatching games, and his play recognition is average at best. This one aspect will hold him back from being an elite superstar in the league, but he will still be terrific. My best OL is Brandon Scherff, but only at guard. He is NOT a left tackle, and putting him there would be not in anyone's best interest. He is better in tighter quarters, and surging downfield in tighter spaces. The best OT in my opinion is DJ Humphries. He certainly needs work in run blocking, but so did Joe Staley coming out of college. Humphries is the most athletic in shadowing his edge rusher, and is scratching the surface. Collins is a RT prospect, but I think he also is best suited moving inside. He struggles in some matchups against tough DE's. From this week: I watched safeties primarily this week (about 25-35 games...no joke), and I come away severely disappointed. Let's focus on the top graded safeties at their respected positions according to NFL Draft Scout, Cody Prewitt and Landon Collins. In their matchup against each other, Collins allowed two late TDs against Mississippi which cost them the game. The first came when he took a horrible angle and go beat deep. The second one, he simply could not get over in time to break up the pass along the sideline. Both coverages were his responsibility. I saw three other games where he also struggled in coverage, and gave up critical chunks of yardage and TDs that were on his duty. He needs to play close to the LOS, to maximize his skills. The media has group think on this guy, and he is NOT a first round quality safety by any means. As for Prewitt, he appears as if he is allergic to tackling. He badly missed three tackles in one game against Alabama, and at least three more against Auburn. He simply wants to play the outfield, and the problem, like Collins, is that he gets beat deep too often. In the last minute of the game against Alabama, he retreated awkwardly on a deep post rout against Amari Cooper, and mistimed his jump. The ball flew well beyond his reach, but luckily for Mississippi, S. Golson made the pick to seal the game for the Rebels. Prewitt does not like to attack the LOS, unlike Collins, and although he covers a lot of ground, simply does not make plays enough to satisfy as the best FS. So, I turn to Damarious Randall of Arizona State. This kid is shorter, smaller, but runs like the wind and loves to make contact. However, the first half of the Arizona game shows some issues he has to clean up. He gambled on a quick pass to the flat, got there late, and the WR was off the races. He also allowed another TD reception on his dime later. At least he has some moxie, and maybe some of these things can be cleared up. Maybe one of the conversion guys (Eric Rowe and Quinten Rollins) can emerge as a stud safety. For now, I have slammed four of these guys into the 40-50 best players, Prewitt on the outside, hoping that something emerges. I did not see enough from three Penn State games to convince me that Adrian Amos is a top level safety, and the same goes for Anthony Harris (although he loves to tackle), Durell Eskridge, Gerod Holliman (no tackling skills), Jordan Richards (why did this kid come out?), and Kurtis Drummond (beaten like a drum in numerous games). Some of the guys I like better than others on tape include Ibraheim Campbell of Northwestern (but he is not a special player), Chris Hackett of TCU (great on film but had a disastrous combine), and James Sample of Louisville, who is climbing up the board for me. In the end, this group is a collective dumpster fire, on par with the horrible list of TE and QB prospects in this draft. I will continue to look at other safety prospects, but ending on a positive note: I watched Henry Anderson in three games this week, every snap, and he is seriously underrated in this draft. I have him as the 52nd best player, moving up. He is a half-step slow from making twice as many sacks and tackles in chasing down RBs, which reminded me of JJ Watt (who has a similar build). Watching some games of Watt playing at Wisconsin this week, I witnessed that similar half-step slow from making play after play: Ex; A hit instead of a sack (although Watt was still better than Anderson, no doubt). Anderson is no Watt, but he can be a poor-man's Watt, and for a third round value, some team is going to get a stud 34DE. Also watched his line-mate David Parry, who had a great Pro Day. Terrific against Notre Dame and Utah, and I saw the same high quality of play in other games in previous weeks. Going to be a top 125 player, and maybe has the strength to hold up as a 34 NT with upside as a fourth rounder if the Niners see him on the clock. Not sure why so many people are down on Nate Orchard. I see a guy who aced the season, and he was a stud against Arizona State, Andreus Peat and Stanford, then has a great Senior Bowl week, and a decent combine. This guy is not half of the athlete of Randy Gregory, but makes more plays, has better on the field recognition, and seems to always be in the right place at the right time. Good news for Todd Gurley fans: It looks like his recovery is going very well, and with that news, I have jumped him inside the top ten best graded players, as part of that grade is based on health. Hoping he is ready for Week One. Got a feeling he is going to be wearing Purple and Gold. Finally, in watching a ton of Randall film this week for ASU, I couldn't help smile every time I see Jaelen Strong. He is so good. The ability to make huge plays at huge times, the skills to snatch the ball out of the air, the blocking, the NFL ready body. To me, he is on the heals of Parker to be my number three WR in this draft. In an added note: After White, Cooper, Parker, Strong and Lockett, I have a dramatic drop-off to my number six WR. The value WR in this draft class is Baylor's Antwan Goodley. He is built like a rock, but runs like the wind. He gave Trae Waynes a headache in their bowl game matchup, probably the best WR I saw compete against Waynes this year. Cheers.

Mar 22, 2015 at 1:24 PM

SFL49ER
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The best read on a Sunday afternoon! Thanks MadDog for the draft analysis

Mar 22, 2015 at 1:52 PM

LasVegasWally
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Outstanding commentary!

Mar 22, 2015 at 2:00 PM

Paul_Hofer
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MD,
Any recommendation for Niners' pick at #15? Second round? No DGB in top 50?

[ Edited by Paul_Hofer on Mar 22, 2015 at 2:13 PM ]

Mar 22, 2015 at 2:24 PM

mayo49
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Mariota #21?

Mar 22, 2015 at 2:30 PM

MadDog49er
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Originally posted by Paul_Hofer:
MD,
Any recommendation for Niners' pick at #15? Second round? No DGB in top 50?

Just depends who is on the board. The team should have a lot of good options if they want to go DL, WR or OL.

Don't trust DGB. The kid has enormous upside, but if he can't stay clean, it means nothing in the end.

Mar 22, 2015 at 2:49 PM

okdkid
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At this point -- I'm just hoping Jaelen Strong makes it all the way to us at #15. The kid is simply amazing.

Mar 22, 2015 at 3:02 PM

ninergold
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MD, you have Davis, Dawson and Parker all around 15. All difference makers at different positions. If you're on the clock as the Niners, who do you take, considering the other talent that you might get lower in the draft?

Mar 22, 2015 at 3:09 PM

Mann716
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Maddog what's your thoughts on Breshad Perriman? I am personally very high on him.

Mar 22, 2015 at 3:15 PM

tatdwolf49
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So can u give some thoughts into a few players im thinking maybe good fits for us ....

Mitch Morse OG Missour mid round OG i kinda like not sure we need another inside guy after drafting 2 last yr ...

C.J. Uzomah TE Auburn big TE late round sleeper guy maybe ...

Mark Glowinski OG West Virginia late round OG ...
Tyler Kroft TE Rutgers mid round TE was injured from what i read but could be promising...

Mar 22, 2015 at 3:24 PM

#10

crew
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MadDog - agree with you about Strong, if I had to choose between Parker and Strong, I'd take Strong.

Mar 22, 2015 at 3:40 PM

#11

tohara3
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Great job MadDog

Mar 22, 2015 at 4:21 PM

#12

GORO
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So it looks like Gurley or Gordon could be to tempting for 49ers to pass on. Which of these two running backs fit the 49ers running scheme best?
Great job as always.

Mar 22, 2015 at 4:46 PM

#13

MadDog49er
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Originally posted by ninergold:
MD, you have Davis, Dawson and Parker all around 15. All difference makers at different positions. If you're on the clock as the Niners, who do you take, considering the other talent that you might get lower in the draft?

The WR and DL is much deeper than at ILB, but at the same time, I don't value interior LBs as much as OL, DL, WR, and more. If the team really liked Dawson, they could get him in the second round. So, then, it would be the top guy on the board. In this scenario, I'd probably go Parker. But, we are still early in the process.

Mar 22, 2015 at 4:50 PM

#14

RishikeshA
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Thanks MadDog, I find it very interesting that you have DJ Humphries as the top pure OT at 9, and the next pair listed are at 36 and 37. Draft day should be a blast.