Rising from ashes March mock draft

eastcoast49ersfan · 2015-03-20T20:21:09-07:00

Draft Theme: After this disastrous offseason with Gore leaving, Willis and Borland retiring, and Justin Smith likely to retire, I think it's time to start rebuilding and drafting guys who will fit long term needs rather than immediate needs. I tried to pick higher upside players who may not be able to make an impact right away, but could contribute on a championship team down the road. Trades: Trade Ahmad Brooks for a 2016 conditional 5th/6th round pick: Brooks may be tradable now because his contract de-escalated. This opens up a little cap room and the starting spot opposite Smith is Lynch's. Trade Round 1 Pick #15 to the Carolina Panthers for Round 1 Pick #25 and Round 2 Pick #57: Carolina needs to rebuild their offensive line to protect Cam Newton. There is a good chance one of the top tackles is still available at 15, so they trade up with the 49ers who may have missed out on the top 3 WR's and Shelton. This is an exact match on the trade value chart (1050 to 1050) and could benefit both teams if an offensive lineman is BPA. Draft: Round 1, Pick 25 (from Carolina): Todd Gurley, RB, Georgia, 6'1 222 I'm predicting the trade down from 15 assuming there the BPA is an offensive tackle who Carolina wants and is willing to give up their 2nd round pick to get. I think it's in our interest to trade back if Shelton, the top 3 WR's, and Trae Waynes are all gone. At 25, Gurley would be in the conversation for BPA. We signed Bush to a one year deal, so he is not necessarily in the long term plans for the 49ers and Gurley represents a significant upgrade over Hyde when healthy. He's got track speed (4.4), runs with power, and is an effective receiver out of the backfield. He and Hyde would wear down defenses and Gurley has enough speed to get outside as well. In this scenario Gurley slips due to injury concerns, but the 49ers can afford to sit him out as long as necessary. If Gurley is gone, Melvin Gordon is the pick and is a dynamic back who would complement Hyde well. DGB and Alvin Dupree would also be considered here. Trading back appears to give us the best value if we can get one of these guys. Round 2, Pick 46: Stephone Anthony, ILB, Clemson, 6'3 243, 32 ½" arms, 4.56 40 Anthony is becoming popular on the zone for good reason. This guy has the size and athleticism to stick with TE's and we need a cover linebacker with Willis gone and Bowman coming off serious injuries. He doesn't have the instincts of Kendricks (who I think will be gone by this pick) or Dawson, but he's a guy we should be able to develop into a quality ILB. The 49ers have met with him and are going to meet with McKinney, so it wouldn't be too surprising to see one of them taken here. Round 2, Pick 57 (from Carolina): Byron Jones, CB, UConn, 6'1 199, 32" arms Byron Jones may be gone by this pick in the actual draft, but he's being projected in this range. The guy is a freak athlete and a standup guy off the field. He beat the world record for the broad jump at the combine with a 12' 3" jump and posted a 44 ½" vertical to go along with it. We need help at CB after failing to resign Culliver and Cox and this guy has the size and athleticism to develop into a shutdown corner. Round 3, Pick 79: Cedric Ogbuehi, OT, Texas A&M, 6'5 306, 35 7/8" arms This guy drops a bit because he struggled at OT this season and wasn't able to participate at the combine due to injury, but he's a great athlete and has incredible length. Ogbuehi could compete for a starting guard spot once healthy, be a backup swing tackle, and possibly replace Staley in the future at LT. He was viewed more highly than Brandon Thomas before his injury, so we probably wouldn't be able to wait past this pick to draft him. Borderline first round talent who struggled a bit and was kicked to RT, but has all the physical tools to develop into a starting tackle in the NFL. Round 4: Chris Conley, WR, Georgia, 6'2 213, 33 ¾" arms, 4.35 40 Another combine freak, Chris Conley was a solid, but not spectacular performer in Georgia's run heavy offense. With the acquisition of Torrey Smith, we don't need immediate help at WR, so this guy could spend time learning the craft from Anquan Boldin. As a physical specimen, this guy compares favorably with Sammie Coates and any other receiver in the class and I love that he was a willing blocker in college. This is another guy who I wouldn't be surprised to see gone by this pick, but would be happy to take here as the potential upside outweighs the risk. Round 4 (comp) Ray Drew, DE, Georgia, 6'4 284 Drew was a combine snub, but that could allow us to take him later than he would have been available otherwise. He was misused at Georgia, but has good size, length, strength, and athleticism for a 3-4 DE. Despite his lack of production in college, Drew displayed a solid motor. He's a player I would like to bring in to compete with Tank for Cowboy's spot. Round 5 Blake Bell, TE, Oklahoma, 6'6 252, 33 1/8" arms Bell switched from QB to TE this past season for Oklahoma. He doesn't have much speed, but he's a big body and his experience at QB may help him develop into a route runner quicker than many would expect. He's a pretty big project, but he has reasonable (and big) hands and he improved a lot as a blocker in his first season at TE. He needs to continue to add strength as 14 reps on the bench is pretty poor for a TE. He's another long term project who may not make an impact year one, but has some untapped potential at TE. Round 6 Brandon Bridge, QB, South Alabama, 6'4 3/8" 229, 4.72 40 Bridge was not very productive in college, but his size, athleticism and arm strength have drawn comparisons to Colin Kaepernick. He would be a long term project behind Kaepernick and Gabbert, but it may be worthwhile to develop a QB behind Kaepernick as insurance, whether that QB is Gabbert or Bridge. QB isn't really a need and there are some other QB's available in this range who showed more in college (Halliday, Fajardo), but this guy has way more potential than other prospects available this late and is not limited by arm strength or small hands. There's no guarantee our coaches will be able to fix Bridge's mechanics, but if they can, Bridge could become a valuable backup that could draw interest from other teams or possibly replace Kaepernick in the event of injury or if Kaepernick regresses and we end up cutting him in a couple years. Round 7 Mario Alford, WR, West Virginia, 5'8 1/2" 180, 31 ¼" arms, 4.43 40 (4.27 at pro day) Alford was a very productive receiver opposite Kevin White in college. He would be brought on mainly as a KR/PR, but would be given a chance to compete at WR as well. Alford had 945 receiving yards and 11 TD's as a senior and also returned 26 kicks for 743 yards (28.6 yard average). He raised some eyebrows at West Virginia's pro day when he ran a 4.27 40 and he looks much faster than a 4.43 on the field. He's still projected to be a 7th round pick on CBS and a couple other sites I've looked at so I included him in the mock, but I feel like he'll be gone before this pick in the actual draft. Round 7 (comp) Kyle Brindza, K, Notre Dame, 6'1 236 Brindza has a pretty big leg which is noticeable on kickoffs, but struggles with accuracy at times. He had much better stats as a junior and I think he has the potential to become a solid starter. I wouldn't be shocked if drafted a kicker with the comp pick or brought in one or two UFA's to compete for a spot. If they perform well in training camp, Dawson is carrying a $4.134 million cap number and is on the decline. Only $1 million of that is dead money, so the 49ers could save $3.134 million if they cut him. Dawson isn't the Pro Bowler he was when we got him and he's not likely to regain that form as a 40 year old. We're going to have to find a new kicker this season or in the near future.

Mar 20, 2015 at 8:33 PM

NinerSickness
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Posts: 8,897

I like it. Gurley's a beast, and that's a lot of high-risk, high-reward picks I like. Go 1 for 3 on those combine champions (the next Audalius Thomas?) and it's a great draft.

Mar 20, 2015 at 9:02 PM

RishikeshA
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Posts: 12,720

Hurley is definitely on the elite list but will the 49ers draft someone rehabbing for who knows how long? Baalke has to be thinking about his job with all that has transpired, I don't think he has the luxury of waiting for someone to come back fron injury in year one.

Mar 20, 2015 at 9:19 PM

tohara3
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Posts: 31,116

Very nice mock

Mar 20, 2015 at 10:38 PM

tatdwolf49
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Posts: 3,206

Will beside tha crazy trade value and wasted 1st round pick u hit all of our needs ... I really like tha Drew and Brindza picks I think Drew is under rated and im sick of payin kickers 4+ million a yr ...

Mar 21, 2015 at 3:04 AM

MC9BEAT
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Posts: 1,173

I would skip the TE project in round 5. We simply don't have the roster spot available. Davis and Mcdonald are guaranteed on teh roster. We need the #3 TE to be a productive receiver day 1. Unless we get a highly touted TE and V Davis's heir apparent we probably skip the postion in this draft.

Mar 21, 2015 at 3:20 AM

xcfan
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Posts: 3,046

Gurley will be gone before 25

Mar 21, 2015 at 4:02 AM

English
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Posts: 41,440

The impact of the offseason, weighing losses against gains from FA and last year's draft has been repeated too often to need me to repeat it here. In short, your panic Rising From The Ashes is the wrong direction to take, a view which Baalke's FA work so far clearly supports. Unlike previous years when he was drafting for the future I imagine Baalke will be drafting for impact. And I would be very surprised if Baalke takes a running back with the 1st pick. It isn't impossible, but I would be very surprised.

Mar 21, 2015 at 6:00 AM

9erred
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Posts: 4,196

Baffling that the niners have gotten decimated at LB, (Willis, Borland and now chase thomas) yet you want to get rid of a LB who can rush the passer, play ILB ( did it in cincinatti) and has his salary de escaleted. Bag on Brooks all you want, but losing Willis and Borland, made it necessary to keep Brooks, along with Aldon being so vulnerable. The team needs Brooks.

Gurley- while I agree on RB and his talent, the niners need players that are not medical red shirts or medial history.

Love the ND kicker pick in round 7. I concur that the team should go young and save the cap space.

Love the trade down from 15 to pick get two picks in the top 60. The Niners need players and this would help immensly.

If the top CB was available at 15, I think the team would take him. Look at what CB get in FA, crazy money, if you can get a legitimate cb for 4 years plus 5th year option hard to pass up. Also if the Louiville WR falls to 15, I think the Niners HAVE to take him. I would take the Louisville WR Davante Parker over the best CB.

Mar 21, 2015 at 7:59 AM

amosmac28
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Posts: 650

Love the mock but would rather have Perryman in the 2nd. He's more instinctual.

Mar 21, 2015 at 8:15 AM

#10

NYniner85
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Posts: 119,432

I like the trade down if none of the players you mentioned are there.

Hate the Gurley pick

no RB in the 1st!

Mar 21, 2015 at 8:34 AM

#11

Murphys1
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Posts: 1,231

I like the draft a lot...even at the end with the speed receiver I was unfamiliar with and the fat kicker. Really hope we check out that Alford kid.

Mar 21, 2015 at 8:36 AM

#12

9erguy
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Posts: 3,375

If we are going after a game changer RB, I'd rather trade for Adrian Peterson. I realize he is getting paid and it will kill our cap but if Jed wants to win the fans back and is serious about going after the super bowl this year AND wants to steal him from cards...he'll make this happen.

Mar 21, 2015 at 8:58 AM

#13

eastcoast49ersfan
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Posts: 4,112

Originally posted by 9erred:
Baffling that the niners have gotten decimated at LB, (Willis, Borland and now chase thomas) yet you want to get rid of a LB who can rush the passer, play ILB ( did it in cincinatti) and has his salary de escaleted. Bag on Brooks all you want, but losing Willis and Borland, made it necessary to keep Brooks, along with Aldon being so vulnerable. The team needs Brooks.

Gurley- while I agree on RB and his talent, the niners need players that are not medical red shirts or medial history.

Love the ND kicker pick in round 7. I concur that the team should go young and save the cap space.

Love the trade down from 15 to pick get two picks in the top 60. The Niners need players and this would help immensly.

If the top CB was available at 15, I think the team would take him. Look at what CB get in FA, crazy money, if you can get a legitimate cb for 4 years plus 5th year option hard to pass up. Also if the Louiville WR falls to 15, I think the Niners HAVE to take him. I would take the Louisville WR Davante Parker over the best CB.

I don't think it's guaranteed that Brooks will stay even now that Borland and Willis are gone. He's not worth anywhere close to what he's scheduled to be paid through 2017 even after the de-escalation. Cutting him before June 1st, would save us $7.35 next season and $8.65 million in 2017. He's not worth close to that as an ILB and probably isn't even worth that as a starting OLB. If no team was interested, I would even consider cutting him and taking on the dead money this year which will likely be another season where we miss the playoffs (the team is worse than it was last year with Iupati, Gore, Willis, Borland, and Justin Smith gone). I don't want to sabotage the future in any way by trying to stay competitive this season (keeping Brooks may worsen our draft picks by a couple spots and we would have a tough cap decision to make next off-season). I'm assuming Justin Smith leaves because I can't imagine he has any hope in this team winning a Super Bowl which may have been enough to bring him back. So yes, Brooks is versatile and had his cap number de-escalated, but his cap number is still absurd. We signed him to a terrible contract and should be trying to offload him to a team that needs a starting OLB.

http://www.ninersnation.com/2015/1/30/7954401/ahmad-brooks-to-see-de-escalation-in-2015-salary-but-still-potential

I like Parker and Waynes as well, but I would rather have Gurley and Byron Jones or DGB and Byron Jones than either of them. Parker is more of an instant impact type of player and I'd rather draft two high potential players than one, but we have different views on the current state and competitiveness of the 49ers' roster so I can understand your point of view too.

Drafting a RB in round 1 won't be popular if you want the team to be competitive next season, because we have Hyde and Bush and Gurley will need time to get back to 100%. He's one of my draft crushes and I think he can become a Marshawn Lynch type of player (top 2-3 RB in the league). I don't think Hyde will ever be that type of player, but I would love to have both of them wearing defenses down. Bush is only signed on a one year deal and my whole draft philosophy is to throw next season out the window because we aren't going to be very good. RB then becomes a future need and we're picking an elite prospect to fill that future need. The 49ers medical staff would obviously have to be on board with this pick and have confidence in Gurley's recovery, especially after what happened with Lattimore.

Mar 21, 2015 at 8:58 AM

#14

HERN
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Posts: 5,446

I don't know how I feel about drafting Gurley with the first pick specially considering that Baalke might sit him for the year.

I would rather take Perryman in the 2nd, he seems to be a more polished LB.

Byron Jones should be drafted ahead of the LB in round 2, considering there's a better chance either LB would be there at 57.

I like the OL pick in the 3rd.

I'm ok with the rest of of your draft other than like other people have mentioned about the TE. I think we're ok with Davis, McDonald, and Carrier. If you really wanted a TE Clive Wilford might be a better option.