LTB's Mock Offseason (Pre-Free Agency/Pro Day)

LowerTheBoom · 2015-03-03T21:01:35-08:00

I'm not a salary cap expert nor do I pretend to be. I do, however, have an idea of what players are worth, how realistic a "discount" to play with a winning club is, and what players just don't make sense to keep. Re-Sign: Dan Skuta, OLB: Probably our best reserve player, period, Skuta is a quality all-around OLB that has a high revving motor and can step in and start for a little while and be able to hold his end of the bargain. Great effort player and a bargain Justin Smith, DE/DT: We all saw what happened to our D when Smith was hurt in late 2013. Even an old Justin Smith at about 85% of what he once was is considerably better than all but a couple 5-techniques in the NFL. What his presence alone does for the psyche of our D is priceless. Perrish Cox, CB: Coming off of a career year, I don't think the market demands will be as crazy as you would expect for the type of play he gave us. He is 28 years old, has had some off-field problems, and this has been his only impressive year as a pro. San Francisco tends to make CB's look a lot better than they really are, and teams will note how guys like Carlos Rogers and Tarell Brown have performed outside of SF Let 'Em Walk: Michael Crabtree: He has received a ton of criticism for his poor play dating back to the Seattle game... much of it is just, some of it is not. Aside from just having a single 1k rec season to his name, his attitude has been inconsistent, he consistently fails with the game on the line, and he has the durabilty of Cinderella's slippers. He wants big money, and he will get a rude awakening in FA. Frank Gore, : My HEART wants us to keep him forever... but a 31 year old RB at ~$4m doesn't make sense. Not when you consider how cap-strapped we are and we have a promising young RB in Hyde, as well as a deep crop of rookie RB's to choose from in the draft. FA is a few days away and we have not re-signed him, meaning the 2 sides are likely far apart in what is fair to bring him back. Wish Gore nothing but the best and if the 49ers don't win the Super Bowl next year, then I would like to see Gore get a ring. Chris Culliver, CB: He had better production than what he has been credited with this last year, and he is a prototype athlete for the position, but he has too many games where he absolutely gets roasted, has a torn ACL from 2 years ago, and attitude problems. He is a quality player, but if someone else wants to make him filthy rich... let them. Mike Iupati, G: I like Iupati. He seems like a great guy, and can be a great run blocker. That being said, he is horribly overrated by the NFL in general. He is awful in pass protection, and has very poor leverage at times, allowing aggressive, savvy LB's to get under his pads and stymy him in run blocking. He's good as gone. Cut/Release: Stevie Johnson, WR: Would love to see him back... just not at $6m per year. Doesn't sound like he is prepared to take a pay-cut, and his style of play is that of a lesser Anquan Boldin. Ahmad Brooks, OLB: Ahmad gave us some great years, and is still much better than given credit for, but showing up fat to the season last year and making what he is scheduled to make just simply don't make enough sense. He will sign and start for another 3-4 team and IMO find himself again, but not for the 49ers. Ian Williams, NT: We had high hopes for him going into 2013, but he was soon after lost for the season and didn't do anything to really impress last year. Quinton Dial has played well in limited snaps and offers a big body, and Glenn Dorsey, while not my favorite player, is probably better at Williams at this point. Blaine Gabbert, QB: Is he even under contract still? Has had a laughable career and doesn't even deserve a spot on an NFL practice squad. I would rather sign Arnaz Battle out of retirement and run a shoddy WIld Cat offense before trusting Gabbert with a meaningful snap. Restructure: Patrick Willis, ILB: Worth EVERY penny of his current deal... but between being a 1st round pick and getting signed to the best deal an ILB has ever gotten, Willis has made his money already and is at a stage in his career where a Super Bowl would really cement his legacy. He needs to finish his career as a 49er, and extending his contract and shaving off ~$2m would be a win-win for both sides Vernon Davis, TE: I'm probably the biggest Vernon Davis fan in the world, and I believe 100% last year was a fluke-injury year and he will be back to form. As it stands, he had an awful year last year and being 30+ and his game being predicated on speed, he's just not gonna get another big deal in his NFL career. Like Willis, a restructure where he shaves a couple mil off his current deal and gets to finish his career as a 49er at a reasonable rate would do well for him. He has a lot of ties and projects in the SF area, so there is incentive for him to stay. Free Agents: *Baalke and 49ers have never been big players in FA, and I don't expect that trend to change this year Tyrod Taylor: QB: Ideal back-up for Kap, is very athletic, can run the same type of offense, and is a bit underrated as a passer. Good leader, respected by both teammates and coaches, and would do fine filling in for a handful of games if he had to. Darnell Dockett, DT/DE: Even if "Cowboy" saddles up for one more rodeo, we still have a gaping hole left at DE with the untimely release of Ray McDonald, who was one of the most underrated DL in the NFL and quality all around player. Sure, we drafted Tank Carradine in the 2nd round last year, but he has not done anything to show he is ready to step in and be a Pro-Bowl caliber player, and there are just not very many good 3-4 DE's in this years draft. Coming off a torn ACL and being 34 years old, we should be able to land him at a respectable asking price. Paying him would also mean we can take better advantage of the WR depth in this years class. DRAFT: *Not sure what comp picks will be, so I'm playing it safe and assuming it means another 6th & 7th round pick. 1st Round: Dorial Green-Beckham, WR, Mizzou (6-5, 237 lbs) Very valid concerns about his character, and hasn't played in a year, but is a rare talent and many think he would be a Top 3 pick in 2016 if he stayed another year. Bottom line is he has rare movement skills for an athlete his size, is very natural catching the football, and excels at what the 49ers offense sorely needs: A deep threat and a guy who can win in the Red Zone. WR is FAR too big of a need, Cooper/Parker/White will likely all be gone, and we simply can't afford NOT to take a risk on what could be a game-breaking talent. Anquan Boldin would be the ideal mentor for him to sit behind and learn from. 2nd Round: Tevin Coleman, RB, Indiana (6'1, 210 lbs) Not only is Gore gone in this scenario, but Hyde, while promising, has not proven to be a bell cow or premier NFL RB. Enter Coleman, who in my opinion, might be the best kept secret in draft circles. A big RB with home run speed (Had 8 runs of 60+ yds in 2014), is tough as nails (ran for 1,100+ yds AFTER breaking his big toe), produces big time against big time competition (200+ yards vs. National Champ Ohio St. on the road), and is very driven and determined. Character checks out A+. We are planning on running a lot more zone-read and pistol next year, and having a RB like Coleman who is a threat to take it the distance on any given touch will keep defenses from simply honing in on Kap during QB runs. Expected to a run 4.39-4.4 at his pro day 3rd Round: Phillip Dorsett, WR/RS, Miami University (5'10, 185 lbs) While he got tons of hype for his speed and is a big play waiting to happen, I don't think he will go as high as some expect him to due to his lack of size, mediocre production and the fact that he is still very raw route runner. The plus is that he has world class speed and stop/start ability, which makes the probability that he can develop into a quality NFL WR more favorable, Dorsett can compete for playing time as a rookie and also gives us an added dimension in the return game, something we have lacked since Ted Ginn Jr. He is also the type of smallish, blazing fast and quick type of WR that Seattle has trouble defending. 4th Round: Tyler Kroft, TE, Rutgers (6-5, 246 lbs) With Vance McDonald being a terrible disappointment thus far and uncertainty surrounding Vernon Davis' long term future in SF, it's no secret the 49ers are in the market for a TE. Kroft is a very well rounded TE that relishes the physicality of the run game and has deceptive athleticism to make plays with the ball in his hands. Has the frame to put on some more weight but can challenge for the #2 TE spot as a rookie and makes for a good weapon in the RZ. 5th Round: Eric Rowe, CB, Utah (6-1, 205 lbs) Big, physical press CB with long arms. Willing and able run supporter which is prerequisite for SF CB's. I am anticipating a blitz heavy D under Mangini this year, and Rowe would fit in nicely. Has more than enough agility to shore up his issues covering in space. 6th Round: DeAndre Smelter, WR, Georgia Tech (6-2, 226 lbs) Going off pure talent, Smelter is a player who should be a 3rd round pick. Big bodied with long arms (32 5/8") and gigantic hands (11"). Fiery competitor with NFL bloodlines. Physical talent that can overpower CB's and pad a QB's stats with his YAC ability. Coming off a torn ACL and would likely red-shirt his rookie year and can be stashed on the IR. 6th Round: Corey Robinson, OT, South Carolina (6-7, 324 lbs) Massive, road grading RT with long arms and huge hands. Might be better suited for G in the NFL, but for a running team like SF would be an upgrade over the sensitive Jonathon Martin, who was awful in both pass pro and running the ball. If Anthony Davis were to go down again, at least we would have a running game on the right side of our OL. 7th Round: Tyeler Davison, DT, Fresno St (6-2, 316 lbs) Active, high-intensity brute with powerful hands and knows how to tuse them. Very long arms and huge hands, and is surprisingly explosive and effective at the snap. Better pass rusher than he should be given his size. Has the strength to anchor in the run game, but more of a natural penetrator. 49ers' have never really used the traditional "space eating" NT in their 3-4, has the versatility to play NT or DE in our scheme 7th Round: Detrick Bonner, FS (6-0, 207 lbs) Jack-of-all-trades DB that can do a little it of everything. Can back up either S spot and man cover. Much more athletic and versatile than Craig Dahl and propensity as a hitter might make him a good ST candidate.

Mar 3, 2015 at 9:03 PM

NinerSickness
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Posts: 8,897

Lotta offense in that draft.

Mar 3, 2015 at 11:23 PM

elguapo
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Posts: 26,383

I love that mock offseason and draft. Rounds 1-3 are great. The de may not be addressed if we sign dockett. I think the resigns and walks are right on except we do not cut Ian Williams.

Mar 4, 2015 at 12:00 AM

LowerTheBoom
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Posts: 306

Originally posted by NinerSickness:
Lotta offense in that draft.

Yup. That was by design.

Our D was 5th in the league if I'm not mistaken... while missing Bowman for 16 games, Willis for 10.5, Aldon for 9 games and Tramaine Brock missed damn near the whole season.

Not only did our WR corps need a major jolt regardless, but only only Boldin, Patton and Ellington are under contract, and even if we hit gold and draft a legit #1 WR in the 1st... spots 3-5/6 have to be accounted for, and neither Patton or Ellington are locks to be the answer there (although I do like both players, they are far from sure bets).

We needed to reload in a major way on O, and I just wasn't very fond of the DL depth in this years crop. We have the best ILB unit and depth in the entire NFL, 1 elite level All-Pro in Aldon Smith, a budding star in Aaron Lynch and an excellent #3 OLB in Skuta.

Given the fact that we drafted Jimmie Ward in the 1st, Brock will be healthy and Dontae Johnson looked good last year, I don't think CB is as much of a need as its made out to be, nor do I see Baalke investing that highly in CB after drafting the guys he did last year.

Mar 4, 2015 at 12:06 AM

LowerTheBoom
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Posts: 306

Originally posted by elguapo:
I love that mock offseason and draft. Rounds 1-3 are great. The de may not be addressed if we sign dockett. I think the resigns and walks are right on except we do not cut Ian Williams.

I agree, I think the Dockett signing is wishful thinking... but where I think we may sign SOMEONE relevant at DE because there are no players in the draft this year that can step in and fill Ray McDonald's shoes in 2015. Perhaps the 49ers are THAT high on Carradine from practices that they don't feel Dockett is necessary, but:

1) I don't see a Year 1 starting 5-technique in the first 3 rounds

2) I think it would be foolish to gamble on a project like Arik Armstead in the 1st round and fail AGAIN to address our glaring need for a prime time WR talent.

Maybe we don't cut Ian Williams, but between him and Glenn Dorsey, that money can be used better elsewhere, IMO.

Mar 4, 2015 at 12:12 AM

LowerTheBoom
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Posts: 306

Originally posted by NinerSickness:
Lotta offense in that draft.

Also, factor in THIS:

*DeAndre Smelter is a "redshirt" draft pick. Anquan Boldin is gone after this year... meaning WR doesn't stop being a need even if get our #1 this year

*Dorsett is not just an offensive pick, but he's a much needed boost to our return game. Teams do draft for ST as well, and Dorsett fills multiple needs

*Vernon Davis' future is up in the air, and Vance McDonald has barely shown signs of life. TE has to be addressed at some point THIS year, if for nothing else than for depth

*Carlos Hyde hasn't proven he's star material or can even carry the load by himself. Kendall Hunter is coming off a torn ACL and tore his achilles the year before. We are a run dominant team, and Tevin Coleman is, IMO, the best RB in the class and has the tools to be a super star in the NFL.

Mar 4, 2015 at 5:59 AM

Travisty13
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Posts: 5,267

Originally posted by LowerTheBoom:

*Dorsett is not just an offensive pick, but he's a much needed boost to our return game. Teams do draft for ST as well, and Dorsett fills multiple needs

What exactly has Dorsett shown that indicates he'd be a "needed boost" to our return game. He wasn't even Miami's return man this year, Stacy Coley was. And in all his time at Miami, he had 23 KR for 449 yards and a 19.5 average and as PR he had 16 returns for 79 yards and a 4.9 average. He's a horrible returner and wouldn't be an upgrade over anyone on this team. Some guys just aren't made to be returners, Dorsett is one.

Mar 4, 2015 at 6:34 AM

Mr.Mcgibblets
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Posts: 15,079

Mixed bag, and some skeptical draft values.. pretty good, if this is the reality.

Not too big a fan of your first 2 picks. I have them both at lesser value.

The rest of your picks would all be A+, but I have my doubts they would be available where you select them.

On the whole though, and assuming this was the final outcome, I'd be pleased enough.First 2 picks underwhelm, but the rest makes up for it.

Mar 4, 2015 at 6:43 AM

Bluesbro
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Posts: 13,403

I strongly disagree with Beckham at #15. This guy has Josh Gordon type red flags swirling all around him, and is a HUGE character risk.

Mar 4, 2015 at 6:56 AM

LZRD_WZRD
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Posts: 2,893

We're not going to pick 3 WR, including a 1st rounder. If we're drafting the second tier guys, then we're going OL or defense in the 1st round for sure

Mar 4, 2015 at 7:29 AM

#10

daragon
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Posts: 1,673

Great draft! I love the Dorial Green-Beckham pick in the first.

Mar 4, 2015 at 7:38 AM

#11

eastcoast49ersfan
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Posts: 4,112

Rowe will definitely not be there mid-5th round. He may have fallen there pre-combine, but he had one of the best combines of any player even though it hasn't been talked about much.

I agree that Dorsett may fall farther than people expect, but I think we would have to trade up in the 3rd to get him. I like the rest of the mock and the Dockett acquisition. I still think we would address DL in the draft before the 7th round, because we would have to assume Dockett and Smith only have one more season in them. Tank is our only viable replacement and he's unproven as you said.

I've been on the DGB bandwagon for a while now, but I wouldn't mind trading back from 15 to the mid-20's (maybe Carolina's pick) and betting that either Jaelen Strong or DGB is available there. Their 1st and 2nd round picks are an exact match for the 15th pick on the trade calculator (1050 each) and we may have a shot at either Preston Smith or Mario Edwards with their 2nd round pick. If both DGB and Strong are taken, we could go DL with the 25th pick (Carl Davis). I'm really hoping that trade happens because Carolina may want Andrus Peat or another OT available at 15 and there are several prospects the 49ers could take at 25.

Mar 4, 2015 at 7:56 AM

#12

NYniner85
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Posts: 118,884

Good write up!

couple questions though...

1. Smith is still under contract so I don't get the resigning?
2. Why are you cutting Williams? It would only save $1 million and when healthy is has played well. We need depth on the DL and your draft didn't really go that route.
3. Why restructure VD then draft a TE in the 4th? Vance has been underwhelming, but he is only going into his 3rd year.

I'm all about going offense in the draft but that seems a bit overkill lol. I'm fine with DGB if Baalke thinks he is worth the 15th pick. Tons of upside and I have a good feeling about our new WR coach. Coleman would be a stud for us in the 2nd and I like the Rowe pick in the 5th.

What did you use for a draft board? Rowe is a 3-4 rd prospect on CBS Sports.

Not sure if Dorsett is there in the 3rd and was he good at kick/punt returns??...I think I'd rather go DL (especially if you're going Smelter in the 4th).

overall not bad thanks for the mock

Mar 4, 2015 at 8:03 AM

#13

NYniner85
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Posts: 118,884

Originally posted by eastcoast49ersfan:
Rowe will definitely not be there mid-5th round. He may have fallen there pre-combine, but he had one of the best combines of any player even though it hasn't been talked about much.

I agree that Dorsett may fall farther than people expect, but I think we would have to trade up in the 3rd to get him. I like the rest of the mock and the Dockett acquisition. I still think we would address DL in the draft before the 7th round, because we would have to assume Dockett and Smith only have one more season in them. Tank is our only viable replacement and he's unproven as you said.

I've been on the DGB bandwagon for a while now, but I wouldn't mind trading back from 15 to the mid-20's (maybe Carolina's pick) and betting that either Jaelen Strong or DGB is available there. Their 1st and 2nd round picks are an exact match for the 15th pick on the trade calculator (1050 each) and we may have a shot at either Preston Smith or Mario Edwards with their 2nd round pick. If both DGB and Strong are taken, we could go DL with the 25th pick (Carl Davis). I'm really hoping that trade happens because Carolina may want Andrus Peat or another OT available at 15 and there are several prospects the 49ers could take at 25.

Yup I was thinking about a trade down with Carolina in my next mock

as well... they need OL help and Collins might be sitting there at 15. Like you said the draft value is perfect for their 2nd rd pick. I kinda want to see how FA plays out a little before making my mock. I have a feeling teams like the Raiders and Cleveland might grab a WR in FA which could have one of the big 3 fall to us.

Mar 4, 2015 at 9:04 AM

#14

m_brockalexander
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Posts: 13,376

Originally posted by NinerSickness:
Lotta offense in that draft.

The list of the top players under 25 came out on NFL.com today. Niners had two on the defense (Borland and Reid) and none on offense. The Niners need help on that side of the ball.