Arik Armstead DE Oregon

Originally posted by natrone06:
Again there are many examples of players who have become better pros then they were college players especially underclassmen who declare. The draft is simply not that simple. Projecting ceilings, judging work ethic and what can be taught vs not is all part of the process.

If Danny Shelton had come out as a JR his thread would look very similar. Size and athleticism but lacks production. Danny Shelton went back to school and had a huge senior year and now is a top ten pick. If Armstead went back to school who's to says his production doesn't take that same jump. The goal as a GM especially with these underclassman is see the future and which way the arrow is pointing.

But, the difference is Danny Shelton DID stay and DID make that jump. We don't know if he armstead will. He would have been better suited staying another year. For as many players that become better pros there are far more of those guys that crash and burn. Again, commitment issues, as well as projecting him to be better is just absurd for a first round pick. Especially when there is many more well rounded prospects. His ceiling may be high but his floor is just as low. Id be happy if we took him as a second rounder. But 15th overall? thats insane

No thank you. Address the Wr or Cb position with the first pick.

If we go d-line, I'd much rather have Malcom Brown or Eddie Goldman. Simply better players IMO.

Originally posted by SofaKing:
So B/R says he's a lock to us at #15 if he's on the board...

In other words, we're not drafting him lol

Nothing against B/R, but nobody guesses Baalke's pick. NOBODY. Except for maybe MadDog.

As other have said, he's too risky a pick. He could be a dynamite player, but there's just too many red flags. Commitment issues, average production at best, and he's raw. We could go D-line at #15 but I'll be surprised if it's Armstead.

This

Also, I just don't feel confident he's going to be an outstanding player.

If we take Armstead, I'm going to .

Originally posted by philosoraptor:

Originally posted by natrone06:
Again there are many examples of players who have become better pros then they were college players especially underclassmen who declare. The draft is simply not that simple. Projecting ceilings, judging work ethic and what can be taught vs not is all part of the process.

If Danny Shelton had come out as a JR his thread would look very similar. Size and athleticism but lacks production. Danny Shelton went back to school and had a huge senior year and now is a top ten pick. If Armstead went back to school who's to says his production doesn't take that same jump. The goal as a GM especially with these underclassman is see the future and which way the arrow is pointing.

But, the difference is Danny Shelton DID stay and DID make that jump. We don't know if he armstead will. He would have been better suited staying another year. For as many players that become better pros there are far more of those guys that crash and burn. Again, commitment issues, as well as projecting him to be better is just absurd for a first round pick. Especially when there is many more well rounded prospects. His ceiling may be high but his floor is just as low. Id be happy if we took him as a second rounder. But 15th overall? thats insane

As a GM you have to predict the future. There is inherit risk in all picks. Sticking to what you view as only "safe" picks leaves you missing on players like Jason Pierre Paul, Demaryius Thomas and our very own Eric Reid. It is not insane to take chances, its actually insane not to.

Originally posted by natrone06:
As a GM you have to predict the future. There is inherit risk in all picks. Sticking to what you view as only "safe" picks leaves you missing on players like Jason Pierre Paul, Demaryius Thomas and our very own Eric Reid. It is not insane to take chances, its actually insane not to.

I get what you are trying to say, and normally I would agree.
But Armstead's game is so undeveloped. He's maybe had 3-4 games I've seen in his 2 years here where he looked like he was capable (not ready) to play at the next level. He constantly takes plays off, this is him when enganged with an offensive lineman


I've seen him on the sidelines with coaches. Almost every game they try drilling the point home to him that he could be SO much better if he stopped relying on his strength and athleticism to get by blockers, and he doesn't change. All he knows how to do is overpower people and run around them, thats about it.
His footwork is abysmal, he literally doesn't know how to use his hands (getting caught with them in the wrong place 90% of the time), his effort and character are somewhat of a question, he isn't a weight room rat, he doesn't use his height and length to his advantage (in-fact, because of the way he plays its often a dis-advantage)
He is way too pass rush happy, needs to develop the patience it takes to become a run blocker in the NFL

If you can name me a 1st round defensive lineman with more red flags than that, I will be impressed.
When I say this kid is Kentwan Balmer 2.0, I'm telling you that from watching him play for the past 2 seasons

Originally posted by Quest4six:

Originally posted by natrone06:

As a GM you have to predict the future. There is inherit risk in all picks. Sticking to what you view as only "safe" picks leaves you missing on players like Jason Pierre Paul, Demaryius Thomas and our very own Eric Reid. It is not insane to take chances, its actually insane not to.

I get what you are trying to say, and normally I would agree.
But Armstead's game is so undeveloped. He's maybe had 3-4 games I've seen in his 2 years here where he looked like he was capable (not ready) to play at the next level. He constantly takes plays off, this is him when enganged with an offensive lineman


I've seen him on the sidelines with coaches. Almost every game they try drilling the point home to him that he could be SO much better if he stopped relying on his strength and athleticism to get by blockers, and he doesn't change. All he knows how to do is overpower people and run around them, thats about it.
His footwork is abysmal, he literally doesn't know how to use his hands (getting caught with them in the wrong place 90% of the time), his effort and character are somewhat of a question, he isn't a weight room rat, he doesn't use his height and length to his advantage (in-fact, because of the way he plays its often a dis-advantage)
He is way too pass rush happy, needs to develop the patience it takes to become a run blocker in the NFL

If you can name me a 1st round defensive lineman with more red flags than that, I will be impressed.
When I say this kid is Kentwan Balmer 2.0, I'm telling you that from watching him play for the past 2 seasons

This all day! I'm guessing your a duck fan too?

Originally posted by natrone06:
As a GM you have to predict the future. There is inherit risk in all picks. Sticking to what you view as only "safe" picks leaves you missing on players like Jason Pierre Paul, Demaryius Thomas and our very own Eric Reid. It is not insane to take chances, its actually insane not to.

Im not saying you shouldnt take risks, but jason pierre paul is more atheltic then amrstead, and had double the sacks that Armstead had in half the time. Demaryius thomas was raw but produced in college, and eric reid produced in college as well so Im not sure where that pick helps your argument. For everyone you listed there is the darius heyward's, dion jordan's, and aaron maybin's of the world and many more if you wanted me to keep listing them. Im not saying dont take risk, but risk should be calculated. Again, he isnt just raw. He is raw, didnt produce, and questions of work ethic and commitment and the school which he comes from hasnt produced many quality defensive players recently. He is a great prospect in the second round and maybe even late first. But 15th overall? Even, demaryius thomas was the 23rd pick if I remember correctly. Is Armstead really near the 15th best prospect in this draft?

Originally posted by Quest4six:

Originally posted by natrone06:
As a GM you have to predict the future. There is inherit risk in all picks. Sticking to what you view as only "safe" picks leaves you missing on players like Jason Pierre Paul, Demaryius Thomas and our very own Eric Reid. It is not insane to take chances, its actually insane not to.

I get what you are trying to say, and normally I would agree.
But Armstead's game is so undeveloped. He's maybe had 3-4 games I've seen in his 2 years here where he looked like he was capable (not ready) to play at the next level. He constantly takes plays off, this is him when enganged with an offensive lineman


I've seen him on the sidelines with coaches. Almost every game they try drilling the point home to him that he could be SO much better if he stopped relying on his strength and athleticism to get by blockers, and he doesn't change. All he knows how to do is overpower people and run around them, thats about it.
His footwork is abysmal, he literally doesn't know how to use his hands (getting caught with them in the wrong place 90% of the time), his effort and character are somewhat of a question, he isn't a weight room rat, he doesn't use his height and length to his advantage (in-fact, because of the way he plays its often a dis-advantage)
He is way too pass rush happy, needs to develop the patience it takes to become a run blocker in the NFL

If you can name me a 1st round defensive lineman with more red flags than that, I will be impressed.
When I say this kid is Kentwan Balmer 2.0, I'm telling you that from watching him play for the past 2 seasons

I dont love Armstead as a prospect. I just dont understand the outrage of him possibly being picked by us. I trust Balke and Tomsula with defensive lineman and linebackers. If they think he is worth the 15th pick it would not surprise me if he developed into a real force at 3/4 DE in a few years.

Originally posted by NYniner85:
This all day! I'm guessing your a duck fan too?

I'm currently sitting in Knight library trying to write an economics paper
Go ducks!


Its rough being a pro football fan and a ducks fan because our style of play does not translate well to the pros (on both sides of the ball).
I'm thinking Helf will change that,

I didn't know you were a ducks fan!

ProFootballTalk ‏@ProFootballTalk 5m5 minutes ago
Oregon's Arik Armstead changes mind about attending the draft; he was in, now he's out http://wp.me/p14QSB-9La9


4:38 PM - 28 Apr 2015 · Details

Originally posted by NorthBay49er:
ProFootballTalk ‏@ProFootballTalk 5m5 minutes ago
Oregon's Arik Armstead changes mind about attending the draft; he was in, now he's out http://wp.me/p14QSB-9La9


4:38 PM - 28 Apr 2015 · Details

That's because he knows he's not going in the 1st round

Originally posted by NorthBay49er:
ProFootballTalk ‏@ProFootballTalk 5m5 minutes ago
Oregon's Arik Armstead changes mind about attending the draft; he was in, now he's out http://wp.me/p14QSB-9La9


4:38 PM - 28 Apr 2015 · Details

Lol, perfect timing for a guy who get knocked for having character and commitment issues to the game.

Originally posted by SofaKing:
So B/R says he's a lock to us at #15 if he's on the board...

In other words, we're not drafting him lol

Nothing against B/R, but nobody guesses Baalke's pick. NOBODY. Except for maybe MadDog.

As other have said, he's too risky a pick. He could be a dynamite player, but there's just too many red flags. Commitment issues, average production at best, and he's raw. We could go D-line at #15 but I'll be surprised if it's Armstead.

Welllll, mostly you are right but last year NT did very well here and I even got this pick right. And check out the others picked as well!

Trending on NinerTalk - Top 5 Needs: H/W/S = Ideal Height/Weight/Speed; Would need to forfeit picks for Justin Gilbert & Mike Evans.
#1 CB/Dynamic Returner (Justin Gilbert @ #12 = H/W/S + Returner or Jeff Fuller/Jason Verrett)
#2 WR/Dynamic Returner (2) (Size: X - Mike Evans @ #16 or Donte Moncrief @ #66 = H/W/S or Y - Brandin Cooks @ #37 = Returner + S)
#3 S (Calvin Pryor, Hasean Clinton-Dix or Jimmie Ward from picks #27 - #33)
#4 ILB (Shayne Skov in the 2nd round (#56 or #61) or from the 3rd round on, Yawin Smallwood, Chris Borland, Andrew Jackson or Telvin Smith)
#5 C (Marcus Martin @ pick #71)

Read more at http://www.49erswebzone.com/forum/niners/177313-2014-team-needs-updates/page36/#hlYD4U1Fv3b8Z645.99