injured player strategy

Originally posted by English:
One way of looking on it. I looked at it the other way. We had a whole bundle of picks. Let's try rolling the dice with the odd one or two of them and try to hit real paydirt, whilst covering needs with the other picks.

Well, sure is nice to hit real playdirt, but take a look at the 2013 draft, we took not 1 but 2 ACL players (well OK Lattimore was more than ACL) AND Tank was drafted in the 2nd !! Not 3rd, not 4th, but 2nd !! That to me is high risk. So, is safe to say Lattimore's career is already over, seriously I am really worried about Tank's situation too, when is all said and done you know we could end up with 2 injured busts ? One 2nd round and one 4th round pick in one draft class is a heck of a lot in my book.

Originally posted by Rascal:

Well, sure is nice to hit real playdirt, but take a look at the 2013 draft, we took not 1 but 2 ACL players (well OK Lattimore was more than ACL) AND Tank was drafted in the 2nd !! Not 3rd, not 4th, but 2nd !! That to me is high risk. So, is safe to say Lattimore's career is already over, seriously I am really worried about Tank's situation too, when is all said and done you know we could end up with 2 injured busts ? One 2nd round and one 4th round pick in one draft class is a heck of a lot in my book.

I don't think we are going to agree on this one. If you can't gambke when you have 11 picks, when will you gamble?

Carradine is the swing vote. Pass rushers of the top class are so hard to get hold of, I see why Baalke took the risk. Only pass rushers and qb's would be worth gambling a 2nd. It's a damn shame that it looks like the Lattimore gamble has failed. I figure, despite the combined wisdom of the webzone, that the jury is still out on Tank.

all those damn picks wasted. could've moved up a couple/few times if they wanted to. Instead they trade down, draft more injured players.

Originally posted by ChazBoner:

all those damn picks wasted. could've moved up a couple/few times if they wanted to. Instead they trade down, draft more injured players.

Great post! The Niners have limited roster spots. Instead of stashing them for "redshirt year, just trade upnans draft quality over quantity.

Originally posted by ChazBoner:

all those damn picks wasted. could've moved up a couple/few times if they wanted to. Instead they trade down, draft more injured players.

Great post! The Niners have limited roster spots. Instead of stashing them for "redshirt year, just trade upnans draft quality over quantity.

Originally posted by ChazBoner:
all those damn picks wasted. could've moved up a couple/few times if they wanted to. Instead they trade down, draft more injured players.

I think Baalke really messed up by not moving up when we had all these extra picks. We did move up for Reid - and that worked out great. Even this year - he could have easily moved up to grab Cooks or even Odell Beckham Jr.

Originally posted by 4ML:

Originally posted by ChazBoner:
all those damn picks wasted. could've moved up a couple/few times if they wanted to. Instead they trade down, draft more injured players.

I think Baalke really messed up by not moving up when we had all these extra picks. We did move up for Reid - and that worked out great. Even this year - he could have easily moved up to grab Cooks or even Odell Beckham Jr.

I think Baalke has become gun-shy with WRs since the AJ Jenkins bust debacle. Who knows, he could well be copying Bill Belichick cos Belichick doesn't believe in drafting WRs high. Just look at what he has been doing ever since he screwed up on AJ Jenkins, he has been signing veteran free agents instead. Let's hope that is not the case.

All GM's have taken gambles and have won & lost.

Trent is still doing fine in my book.

Im really looking forward to to our next batch of IR picks

T.Millard was a star at Oklahoma, can run the ball, block and catch very well

Brandon Thomas would have been an early pick, road grader OG, who can play OT as well

Keith Reaser and Ken Acker both solid CB's with upside

Originally posted by Butter:

Originally posted by ChazBoner:

all those damn picks wasted. could've moved up a couple/few times if they wanted to. Instead they trade down, draft more injured players.

Great post! The Niners have limited roster spots. Instead of stashing them for "redshirt year, just trade upnans draft quality over quantity.

Originally posted by 4ML:

I think Baalke really messed up by not moving up when we had all these extra picks. We did move up for Reid - and that worked out great. Even this year - he could have easily moved up to grab Cooks or even Odell Beckham Jr.

1. How do you know that Baalke did not try to move up ?

2. I hope everyone realizes that Marcus Lattimore was a compensatory pick. You cannot trade them. Same goes for Brandon Thomas this year.

3. Which pick would you have used to move up in the 1st round to get Beckham Jr. or Cooks this year ?


Pick #12 Odell Beckham Jr. -> Value 1,200

Pick #20 Brandin Cooks -> Value 850




Pick #30 (Jimmie Ward) -> Value 620 + ?

#57 Carlos Hyde -> Value 330
#70 Marcus Martin -> Value 240
#77 Chris Borland -> Value 205
#106 Bruce Ellington -> Value 82
#129 Dontae Johnson -> Value 43
#150 Aaron Lynch -> Value 31,4
#170 Keith Reaser -> 23,4
#180 Kenneth Acker -> Value 19,4
#242 Kaleb Ramsey -> Value 0
#245 Trey Millard -> Value 0

And, of course, the occasional first round receiver has been known to bust. Regularly. And moving up makes that more of a disaster.

I don't think I mind the occasional gamble on an injured player. As long as we are drafting low year in, year out, ways have to be sought to keep up the quality of the roster.

Originally posted by English:
And, of course, the occasional first round receiver has been known to bust. Regularly. And moving up makes that more of a disaster.

I don't think I mind the occasional gamble on an injured player. As long as we are drafting low year in, year out, ways have to be sought to keep up the quality of the roster.

This so far we have yet to see what most of our redshirts can do so i'm not disappointed quite yet.

in 2014, 49ers Should moved up. Give up #30 and #57 and snagged a stud. Jury is still out on the Ward pick (I personally give a player 2 years to start showing why he was drafted). I absolutely HATE redshirting players. Don't people realize rokkie contracts are up after 4 years? Look at Tank, even though he's contributed diddley Poo, he has 2 years left only on his rookie deal. At #40 overall that is HIGH Gosh I hope Tank plays and produces. What is up with that??

I understand the logic behind using a 5th-7th rd pick on an injured player and gambling. The risk is low , especially on a deep team like the 49ers where it is not easy for late picks to even make the team.

The real question is should we be gambling picks in the 1st 4 rounds.

in the last 2 years we have gamebled on:

Tank Carradine - early 2nd rd pick

Thomas - 3rd rd pick

Lattimore - 4th rd pick

Tank we have not seen mid 2nd yr
Thomas we won't see till next year
Lattimore quit and was a completely wasted pick

So far not so good. That's 2 players we could have had on the roster last year and this year and another we could have had this season.

It's all risk/reward. The reward had to be significant enough to offset having to wait a year to see them play and taking the risk as well that they may not return to form.

Ask any GM and they will tell you that it's common practice to value a pick next year as 1 round later than a pick this year. Trading a 4th rd pick this year has the same value as a 3rd rd pick next season. The waiting for a season should then equall 1 rd in value by itself. Then you need to add more value for the risk that the player does not return to form. I tend to believe that a player should have gone at least 2 rounds sooner if they were healthy to be drafted with a serious injury. The exception being the 1st rd where values can change greatly within the round.

What's done is done so now all we can do is pray that Tank and Thomas pan out. I do think we should stop gambling early picks for awhile.

Originally posted by DeUh:

Originally posted by Butter:

Originally posted by ChazBoner:
all those damn picks wasted. could've moved up a couple/few times if they wanted to. Instead they trade down, draft more injured players.

Great post! The Niners have limited roster spots. Instead of stashing them for "redshirt year, just trade upnans draft quality over quantity.

Originally posted by 4ML:
I think Baalke really messed up by not moving up when we had all these extra picks. We did move up for Reid - and that worked out great. Even this year - he could have easily moved up to grab Cooks or even Odell Beckham Jr.

1. How do you know that Baalke did not try to move up ?

2. I hope everyone realizes that Marcus Lattimore was a compensatory pick. You cannot trade them. Same goes for Brandon Thomas this year.

3. Which pick would you have used to move up in the 1st round to get Beckham Jr. or Cooks this year ?


Pick #12 Odell Beckham Jr. -> Value 1,200

Pick #20 Brandin Cooks -> Value 850




Pick #30 (Jimmie Ward) -> Value 620 + ?

#57 Carlos Hyde -> Value 330
#70 Marcus Martin -> Value 240
#77 Chris Borland -> Value 205
#106 Bruce Ellington -> Value 82
#129 Dontae Johnson -> Value 43
#150 Aaron Lynch -> Value 31,4
#170 Keith Reaser -> 23,4
#180 Kenneth Acker -> Value 19,4
#242 Kaleb Ramsey -> Value 0
#245 Trey Millard -> Value 0

Thank you for interjecting some reality here. Odell Beckham was totally out of the question. I would've liked Brandon Cooks, but I still did not want to move up. I actually was in favor of trading back to get more picks in the second and third rounds. People love to say we should move up, but have no idea what the cost is.

In terms of the injured player "strategy", Baalke tried something and it hasn't worked so far. I'm not going to fault him for making the attempt. He saw a chance to get a potential number one running back in Lattimore and I get the Tank pick as well. If Lattimore turned out to be Willis McGahee (who sat out his first season), no one would've questioned the pick. Sometimes things work, sometimes they don't. I appreciate the fact that we have a GM who will do everything he can to add value to this team.

In regards to the Tank pick, according to the coaching staff, it isn't injuries. So I fault the coaching staff more than I fault Baalke for that one. We shall see what goes down with the other players. If their rehab goes well enough, we might be in a position to finally do some moving up that everyone has craved for so long because I do believe we have adequate depth at most positions (WR, LB, DL, CB). The only glaring needs to be are at safety (no depth whatsoever), RB, QB, DE, and WR. And even then, whoever is picked at all of those positions outside of receiver has little chance of starting. Some may think that we need some O-line help, but for everyone to regress this much, I fault the coaching staff again.

I honestly think Baalke should continue with the strategy in 2015, except try to get the players as UDFA if possible. If there's a 3rd to 4th round guy that goes undrafted because of injury, it's exactly the kind of value that Trent tends to go for.