Originally posted by Giedi:
Originally posted by NickSh49:
They didn't take a receiver in the first round last year because they took Jenkins in 2012. That's a simple case of waiting to see if the guy would pan out. He didn't. It is what it is.
The reasoning is not all-encompassing here, not universal. I'm not saying, "Take a first-round receiver or nothing every year regardless of the situation with the team." It's a matter of what your roster requires. For example, I would argue against the Lions drafting a WR in the first round this year. They have bigger needs at other positions and added Golden Tate in free agency.
But I do think the 49ers need to draft at the position with the mentality that both Crabs & Boldin are unknown quantities with the team down the road. I think they need to invest in the position with a talent they see starting at the #1 or the #2 for the next 3-5-8 years. And I think this is the year you do it... you don't wait a year or two years from now when Boldin retires and we're stuck with Michael Crabtree and no one else that's really worth a s**t.
You think that player can be found in the second round. You think the chances are better if they take more guys in the second round instead of a higher-graded talent in the first. We disagree on that.
And I think what separates my argument a bit here is that by trading up, you get to choose the player. With your scenario, you don't. You're just hoping the players you like fall to you.
And that's the biggest difference. I'm arguing the 49ers should move up and take the dude they want. You're arguing that they should stay put or trade down and HOPE the talent they like is there when it is their turn to pick.
With my strategy, the Niners will get the guy they want assuming they can execute the trade. A team will be on the clock and they can say, "Mr. Receiver is there, and we are going to commit to the player we want right now."
With your strategy, that guarantee isn't there. You can do all the homework you want, and the players you like may not be there. That's just a fact.
First of all, anybody outside of the first round, first pick, is going to have to wait and see who will fall to them. That first round first pick is the only team that has *total control* of who they get and who they pick. Nobody else does.
Every football team is run just a tad differently from another. One guy's WCO system isn't exactly another guy's WCO system, so getting their *guy* that is unique to their team is a sound strategy. But again, it assumes that you will be 100% correct in your talent evaluations. I get that Harbaugh and Baalke are at or near the top regarding evaluation of talent, but as dtg_49er posted, if you get 2/3rds right, that *is* an excellent draft. No GM gets everything 100% correct.
I think at least several players a year make the 49er team as undrafteds, which means the rest of the NFL including Baalke screwed that up by not drafting an undrafted who makes the team. We're not talking about drafting eleven 7th rounders here, we're talking about maybe drafting possibly 4 *2nd rounders.* I think any athlete that is judged as going in 1st through 4rth round has the talent to make the team and be a starter.
Seattle had traded for Flynn *and* drafted a 3rd round QB. I'm pretty sure they pegged Flynn as a starter before seeing what that 3rd round QB could do. I'm pretty sure they are glad they drafted another QB that year in the 3rd round despite having Flynn and a former 2nd round QB pick on the team already. Also, trading up from round 4 and 5 to round 3 or round 2 is still considered a *trade up* too. Just not at the level of a first round pick trade up. Again, it's a very deep draft, and getting four second round picks this year is probably equivalent to getting 4 first round picks in other years.
Finally, while it makes spectacular television drama for Baalke to trade up and get a Mike Evans (and I'm all for a move like that) it doesn't mean they will do that. I think it's equally likely that that trade out of the first round and concentrate on depth because as you said, Crabs, Anquan, Baldwin, Osgood need to have good understudies behind them due to contract expiration or replaced by better talent.
I think my problem is that I don't see much to be gained with this roster by spending all of our picks. We have a lot of talent on this team. I'd like to see them draft at positions of need.... 2 WR's, 2 CB's, a TE to compete with Vance, OL/DL depth, maybe a S to compete with Bethea. That's about 7-8 players max. Even then, finding a safety in the 6th round that's going to be better than a vet like Bethea? Slim odds.
