OTC's Mock Series: Strategy One - St. Patty's Day Edition 3/17/14

Originally posted by wailers15:

Originally posted by pd24:

Too much talent in this draft to trade a 3rd to move 5 or 10 spots for Lee. I would do the 4th, but we can get a good rotation player and eventual starter with that 3rd round pick. This is a deep draft.

Agreed. Lee had a good college career, but man he seems to lack that toughness.. he seems fragile, and USC has a long track history of producing NFL WR's that never pan out. I think Key was the last great one.

I think some players were just way overhyped when they were never really that good. Can't blame the school all the time. Robert Woods, who came out of USC last year, had a very good rookie year really, comparatively speaking -- and that was playing with a rookie QB throwing to him to.

In 14 games he had 40 catches for 587 yards and 3 TDs, which was 5th among rookie WRs. Compare that to the 1st WR selected, Tavon Austin's 40 receptions for 418 yards, 4 TDs. The only rookies with more yards than Woods were Hopkins, Kenny Stills, Keenan Allen, and Terrance Williams. I think once Woods starts to shine even further, the "USC churns out busts" thing will have to stop.

It's not bad. Pretty realistic and potentially a good draft. I'm just not high in Marquise Lee at all at the next level. I like a lot of the rest of your draft though. CB, WR, C addressed pretty well in this draft.

I love this draft.

I'd be happy with this draft primarily because I'm a huge fan of Lee, Gaines and Aikens. However, I just don't see KPL making the transition from linebacker to strong safety. That's a pretty big leap for someone who's never in their football career (high school or college) played the position. He's definitely athletic enough to give it a shot, but the more likely scenario for someone with those dimensions is to stay at LB. Just my opinion.

Other than that (and Fortt, who I don't care for), it's a solid draft.

Originally posted by OnTheClock:
I expected this to be a highly criticized mock, but lucky for you folks, there's still two more to go before the final concluding one.

Not a fan. Move up for Lee? There are tons of WRs that the team could take at 30 or in the second round that would be comparable. Another injured player with second round pick? No thanks. How about addressing the CB position with a premium pick.

lee is a very fine player who will get open and get yards, but he is a delicate athlete who won't be able to take a beating. bennett is not a true, playmaking football player; the physical package you get is better than the player. i wouldn't take him in the 2nd. to me, he's a mid-late 3rd. aikens and pierre-louis will go earlier than you project. imagine how justin smith would destroy chris martin--he's just not strong enough handle nfl d-linemen. advice: the only o-linemen you draft late are ones with starter measureables but who have other issues that can be worked out. at least they have the raw talent to beat opponents one day in the future. polished, but clearly substandard o-line athletes drafted late are pretty worthless; they have no chance to help the team win. draft o-line early. draft developmental o-line late. don't draft mediocre o-linemen mid-late in the draft.

doublepost.

Originally posted by xcfan:

lee is a very fine player who will get open and get yards, but he is a delicate athlete who won't be able to take a beating. bennett is not a true, playmaking football player; the physical package you get is better than the player. i wouldn't take him in the 2nd. to me, he's a mid-late 3rd. aikens and pierre-louis will go earlier than you project. imagine how justin smith would destroy chris martin--he's just not strong enough handle nfl d-linemen. advice: the only o-linemen you draft late are ones with starter measureables but who have other issues that can be worked out. at least they have the raw talent to beat opponents one day in the future. polished, but clearly substandard o-line athletes drafted late are pretty worthless; they have no chance to help the team win. draft o-line early. draft developmental o-line late. don't draft mediocre o-linemen mid-late in the draft.

They said the same thing about Desean Jackson, who is smaller than Lee, and had a crazy productive year last season. (Although, I personally feel it had a lot to do with the system, the point is that he was able to produce and stay on the field).

On your comment about the OL: Baalke has selected OL in mid-to-late rounds pretty much every year. I think it's reasonable to assume he's going to continue that trend in drafting good college players and high potential players that can be molded into starters. Looney (4th), Kilgore (5th) are prime examples.

Baalke takes a targeted approach and only has shown to vary when there is shock that a player is still there. The most notable were Kendall Hunter (4th), and Quinton Patton (4th). They expected neither to make it to those spots, but took them because they were clearly that much better than the player they targeted/expected to be at their 4th round pick.

I've always been a huge fan of Lee so I would love to see him on the Niners. But, I think it would be way too risky to wait until the 77th pick to get a CB when that is the biggest need on this team. I would rather move up if necessary for the corner and then take a WR in the 2nd.

Originally posted by Ninerjohn:

I've always been a huge fan of Lee so I would love to see him on the Niners. But, I think it would be way too risky to wait until the 77th pick to get a CB when that is the biggest need on this team. I would rather move up if necessary for the corner and then take a WR in the 2nd.

I agree it is the largest question mark with Brock having his first good year and Culliver coming off the injury. Can't be completely certain that both will be good. Wright and Cook need to prove they can make the team, and Morris will need to show he's developed. This is why I expect us to draft at least two corners this year.

Of course, again -- this is just "strategy one" in the series. Tune in next time for... Strategy.. TWO. (Just imagine the movie trailer voice).

http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/cfb/46006/349/peshek-top-4-wr-metrics


Interesting info on WR metrics.