Mock of The Year - 9ersLiferInChicago | Page 6

9ersLiferInChicago · 2014-02-26T17:53:33-08:00

It's that fun time of the season again. I wanted to wait until after the combine to release my mock, but I have to say that the combine really didn't influence me on who I think we should draft. As I see it the 49ers needs are much more focused than in the previous two seasons. We have 12 picks to fill them, with an amazing 6 picks in the first 3 rounds. There's no way HarBaalk will whiff on this draft. I really don't think we should trade any of our first 6 picks, not one. We can really do some long-term damage to the NFC West, and NFL, with those 6 picks. My wish is that we pick all 12 picks, but I doubt that'll happen. Just too many picks to resist a deal to stockpile picks for 2015. Plus, we don't have many holes to be filled, so I don't think more than 7 or 8 actually makes the team, with 5 or 6 making the active 53 and even less making the 46. But I did mock minus trades. It's impossible to predict that so I didn't waste time trying. But again, I do expect us to be very active during the draft with trades. Also, while we don't have many holes I hope we don't get drunk on "BPA". I expect HarBaalk to draft the best players for this team and not just talent chase. I'd hate for us to have a roster full of talented uncontrollable head cases. So with that said here's my position hierarchy of need:CB, WR, SS, ILB, OG, DL, RB, QB, KR, OT, OLB 1st CB – Bradley Roby, 5-11, 195lbs, Ohio St., 4.39 40Although Roby is 5-11, 195, he plays 6-2, 210. This is a very physical corner tailor made for our defense. Insanely fast, posting a legit 4.39 at the combine. Nasty and aggressive, and very willing run supporter. Plays with a competitive attitude. A natural corner; plays with very fluid, loose hips. His press-shadow technique (a technique this defense uses OFTEN) is just stellar. Extremely instinctive zone-man corner, which is very important in Fangio's complicated coverage schemes (that often go from zone to man/man to zone post snap). Use to playing on an island and use to playing slot as well, so he has shut-down potential. A big plus is that he's a very good in the return game. Has very big hands (10 ¼"). Very dangerous blitzer from the corner. Will need to be careful with his aggression in the NFL. Will need to get bigger, maybe bulk up to about 205lbs. Will need to trust the scheme more, as he gets caught peeking into the backfield. Likely a day-one starter, even for our 9ers. Would make the 46. (If Roby isn't there I say we get CB – Marcus Robinson, 6-0, 195lbs, Florida.) 2nd (From Alex Smith trade)WR – Jordan Mathews, 6-3, 212lbs, Vanderbilt, 4.4 40, 21 reps bench press.Boldin may very well retire a 49er, but we still need another guy to really round out our WR corps. I really like this kid. The cousin of one Jerry Rice, Mathews has the combo of size, speed, and strength we need on this team. He's a hands catcher. I think Jerry may have been teaching this kid (I have no facts to back that up) because he's one of the more polished rout runners coming out, has very good body control to compete for balls (a craft Jerry perfected). He's strong at the LOS. With 4.4 speed he could pull away from defenders and take the top off a defense. Plus, he's returned kicks. With Boldin, Crabs, Mathews, and Patton in 4-wide looks, and with a motioning Davis/Miller/LMJ/or even Gore is gonna prove to be poisonous for even Seattle's defense. Mathews has all the tools, the skills, size, and the pedigree won't hurt either. He'd definately increase the competition level at the WR position below Crabs. Would make the 46. If we draft Mathews, and he doesn't make the 46, it'll be because Chuck Jacobs would have had a very impressive camp and preseason. That would be a tall order for Jacobs though. 2nd SS – Deone Bucannon, 6-1, 211lbs, Washington State, 4.4 40Been watching this kid for a while. Had a very good combine (4.4 40, 125" broad, 19 reps on the bench, 36.5 vertical). This dude is an absolute real-deal HITTER! He's a throwback-type player, the type that JH loves. A real special team standout. Great replacement for Hitner whether he stays or not. He forces a lot of fumble on crossing runners and is a real intimidator in the secondary. Will need to develop fluidity in his hips, but that's to be expected given he's a strong safety and not a corner. He plays too upright, but it can be corrected with coaching. Also, while big hits are useful to be a good defense he needs to learn to break himself down more. But unlike Hitner, Bucannon's ball skills are better than average for hard hitting SS, so in that way he'd be an improvement over Hitner. (But I still want Hinter back for the upcoming season.) His techniques are fixable. We have to get this kid on this defense!! Would make the 46. 3rd (From Tennessee - 2013 draft-day trade)ILB – Shayne Skov, 6-1, 245lbs, StanfordDon't look now but P. Willis is getting older. At 29 we need to start thinking for the future at that position. And with Bowman injured and not slatted to be back until after the season starts I think it's a must that we get a guy here. Skov, a Stanford kid with just the temperament and work ethic JH & Co. desires, is a perfect fit. Diagnoses plays and hits the gaps well, and fast. Was a team captain on a pretty good defense. Sure, fundamental tackler. Not much experience in 3-4 but with Willis, Bowman, and Wilhoite in front of him Skov would have plenty oto learn from. Would make the 46. 3rd OG – Cyril Richardson, 6-5, 348lbs, Baylor, 25 bench repsI originally had us taking Gabe Jackson here. But after the combine he shot up to early 2nd projection so I doubt he'd be available. This is a massive road grader that keeps his butt down, which makes for a solid base. Employs sudden punches at the LOS. Streaky meanness, so he'll need to be more consistent. Has played tackle as well so he'd be great value. Would make the 53. 3rd (Expected compensatory pick)DT/NT – Daniel McCullers, 6-7, 352lbs, Tennessee, 27 bench repsHe carries his weight extremely well. Although he's 352lbs he's kind of lean. Nonetheless this guy is one large, strong man who almost NEVER saw one-on-one. He was mostly doubled, and at times triple teamed but still caused O-lines problems. A bit rare, but a real bully on the inside, an unmovable run stopping two-gapper. Won't give much in pass rushing, but honestly we don't need that from our interior D-line. But he pushes the pocket quite well. With him in the 0, 1, 2, and 3 techniques our LB's will be running wild all over the field. This could be a dangerous man for opposing offenses with our already talented DL starters and rotation. I really hope we get this kid here; he and Q. Dial would be a formidable future for the 49ers. Would make the 53. 4thRB – Terrance West, 5-11, 225lbs, Towson, 4.5 40I cannot see Frank Gore playing past this upcoming season, getting another rock pounder would be smart. West is a real between-the-tackles, balanced one-cut browser. Runs with anger. He could be our short yardage specialist that Dixon couldn't be. In the NFC West this guy is gonna fit right in. This could finally be the year that we part ways with Anthony Dixon like many here have been wanting to see. (Not me tough! I wanna see Dixon stay for his stellar ST play.) Like Frank, he runs behind his pads and use to running a heavy load. Big ?. Could make the 46 if Dixon is let go. Otherwise it'll be the 53. Would not last on the PS. 5thQB – Logan Thomas, 6-6, 248lbs, Virginia TechBeen having my eye on this kid for a while. A top proformer at the combine, which I think will push him up the boards a little. Most have him going in the 7th, but I seriously doubt that'll happen. Thomas would be a definite upgrade at the #2 QB spot. I think this kid would be a perfect fit for this team. Plus we need to get better at the backup QB spot. Would need some work, but so did C. Kaep. Many of the same knocks that scouts have on him are many of the same they had on Kaep, minus the throwing mechanics. I saw this kid throw in games and at the combine and he looked pretty good to me. Throwing mechanics isn't his issue at all. Like Kaep, he's a tough kid, durable, and won't mind lowering his shoulders to deliver a blow. I wouldn't be surprised to see a team reach in the 4th for him. Would make the 46. 6thKR/WR – Jeff Janis, 6-3, 219lbs, Saginaw Valley St, posted a 4.42 at the combine.Very rare measurable – combo speed and body type and very good work ethic. I think he can be taught to the return game. Kind of a big Wes Welker, he's gonna be a terrible mis-match for defenses to handle, especially in off-the-line slot and motioning. Has small hands, and for me that's a bit of a worry considering that he'd be taking fast balls from C. Kaep. Went to a small school with little competition so he'll need to prove himself. But I think with this coaching staff he'll get it done. PS project. 7th (Seventh round: From New Orleans -- Parys Haralson trade)WR – Cody Hoffman, 6-4, 223lbs, BYU, 4.65Excellent hands; don't drop balls much at all!! Very polished rout runner. Not a lot of straight line speed but very quick in underneath routs, gets off jams well, and master of double moves. (The latter two will make him a dangerous element in our offense in our division.) A good move-the-chains WR. Very strong in the YAC, not easy to bring down. Better than adequate blocker down field. Again, not a speedster. Not that flashy with the ball in his hands, but the job gets done. I've watched a lot of film on this kid (as much is free to the world) and, honestly, I think he should be rated higher than the 6th or 7th. Would make the 46 if Manningham and/or Baldwin are released (like I think they both will be). I doubt we keep more than 6 WR's on the 53, plus one with Osgood (Boldin, Crabs and Patton are locks). If we keep only 5, and Jacobs has an excellent camp and preseason, Hoffman is out totally. Hoffman won't last 10 minutes on the PS. 7th (From Carolina - Colin Jones trade)OT – Cornelius Lucas, 6-8, 329lbs, Kansas St.Another large strong kid who engulfs defenders. Has a true mean streak, and keeps it throughout the game. Will need to get better leverage and hand placement to control defenders better. PS project. 7th (Seventh round: Own pick)OLB – Larry Webster, 6-6, 252lbs, Bloomsburg Yes, he's the son of Larry Webster who played 11 seasons in the NFL, including the 2001 Super Bowl Ravens team. Look for this guy to be moved from DE to OLB in the NFL. (And I wouldn't be surprised to see him make a switch to TE given his college basketball career, and we all know how much JH loves versatile players.) He has an explosive first step to get past OT's. Could use some time in the weight room. Longshot of making the team but great PS project. If we cannot resign Phil Dawson look for us to draft a kicker here. My choice will be Chris Boswell out of Rice. In the NFL size matters. I am not a fan of small, light WR's who cannot get off the LOS. And the NFL is going away from smaller corners to bigger more physical corners. We have to understand something: we are in the NFC West, THE toughest division in the league. The NFC West isn't for the faint of hearts; it's the big boy division as the Broncos found out. We need to build to win our division, and our division is big and tough. Indeed speed kills, but not if you cannot get off the LOS. As I stated, I doubt we pick all 12 picks. But I just think we'd get better talent on the roster if we work the complete process, pick all 12, let competition take over, and just cut accordingly. But that first 6 picks are high picks and don't think we should trade any of those picks. Look for our practice squad to get absolutely raped. Thoughts?

Feb 28, 2014 at 3:29 PM

#76

MC9BEAT
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Posts: 1,173

Originally posted by 9ersLiferInChicago:

Originally posted by MC9BEAT:
You have 3 PS ( Practive Squad) projects in the draft. You want to waste 3 picks on players who will probably get snatched up by other teams when we cut them to get down to the 53 man roster before they can even see our PS? Why waste the picks?
Seriously! You do realize we don't have many holes in our starting lineup. Save for the 1st pick this whole draft is gonna be for essentially backups and guys to be groomed. On offence we have no starting spots really open for competition. On defense it's one, maybe two (the CB spots) if T. Brown walks (like i think he will). We have 12 picks. I refuse to believe HarBaalk will trade away 9 or so picks to move up. We are gonna stockpile picks to keep a steady flow of talent in the building to stay in prime position to draft for the future and maintain a healthy level of competition up and down the roster. And you cannot do either by trading away all your picks.

You don't have to necessarily start to make an impact. See Aldon Smith stats as a rookie. Even if Boldin resign he won't be here for more than a couple of years and Crabtree might be gone after next year as well. Add to that 2 yrs in a row we have lost 2 receivers to injury and we need a couple in this draft.

We have 2 quality CB's signed plus Rogers who might be gone so we could use a couple CB's as well.

Whitner might not be back and I don't feel that good about the back ups if we lost a starter to injury so we could use a safety or two.

A spot on the roster opens up with Goodwin going and we might not be able to retain Iupati so we may want to draft a replacement for him in this draft.

Defensive lineman and pass rushers can rotate in immediately.

We need a PR/KR

We may want to go after an ILB with Bowman being out probably half the season and Willis approaching 30

Your logic makes no sense. Who said anything about trading away all our picks? All I said was that if we get to the 6th round after having already drafted 7-8 players and we don't see a player that we have a spot on the roster he could probably take then instead of just drafting some camp competition that you will probably have to cut and hope to put on the practice squad why not target a position that is open like a return man or draft a PUP list guy like Spencer Long or Aaron Colvin or trade for a 205 pick. AFTER having drafted 7-8 players. That is hardly trading away all our picks.

Feb 28, 2014 at 3:44 PM

#77

MC9BEAT
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Posts: 1,173

Originally posted by GhostofFredDean74:

Originally posted by MC9BEAT:

Originally posted by GhostofFredDean74:

Originally posted by MC9BEAT:
You have 3 PS ( Practive Squad) projects in the draft. You want to waste 3 picks on players who will probably get snatched up by other teams when we cut them to get down to the 53 man roster before they can even see our PS? Why waste the picks?

That actually sounds about right. We eventually cut the last 3 picks last year, and 2 of them were snatched up (Cooper and eventually Daniels)...that's what happens when you have a lot of picks and not many roster spots.
We have more roster spots than people might think.
OL, H-Back, WR, WR, SS, PR/KR, CB, CB, That's 8

Plus potential spots at back up safety, ILB, back up QB,

We can use the other picks to trade up, trade for 2015 picks or draft pup list guys

That's 11 if I'm counting your potential openings correctly. He drafted 11 players. Not sure what the big deal is because he assumed some might end up on the PS...if they do well, they might make the team, so who knows? I don't disagree that it's smart to grab guys you can hide on the PuP, but the downside to that of course is that if you need that draft pick to play sooner, but they're not healthy until mid-way through the season, you have to go out and find a free agent player to meet that immediate need. So it's a risk either way.

It's not life and death but if it were up to me I wouldn't spend a draft pick on a player that I figured would probably end up being cut and hope to put on the practice squad. The other teams won't let us. We drafted 3 last year and 2 are on other teams. Three 7th rd picks to get 1 practice squad player.

Would you rather have a similar thing happen this year or maybe get Aaron Colvin in rd 6 and and Spencer Long and Trey Millard in rd 7 plus a return man like a Dri Archer? Or trade 1-2 picks away for 6th rd picks next year.

If I am coming up with a mock I wouldn't have a player in my draft I figured would probably get cut and try to stash on the practice squad IF he cleared waivers. He had 3. Call it a difference of opinion. That's what these forums are for anyway I guess.

Feb 28, 2014 at 3:48 PM

#78

GhostofFredDean74
Hall of Fame
Posts: 30,082

Originally posted by MC9BEAT:

Originally posted by GhostofFredDean74:

Originally posted by MC9BEAT:

Originally posted by GhostofFredDean74:

Originally posted by MC9BEAT:
You have 3 PS ( Practive Squad) projects in the draft. You want to waste 3 picks on players who will probably get snatched up by other teams when we cut them to get down to the 53 man roster before they can even see our PS? Why waste the picks?

That actually sounds about right. We eventually cut the last 3 picks last year, and 2 of them were snatched up (Cooper and eventually Daniels)...that's what happens when you have a lot of picks and not many roster spots.
We have more roster spots than people might think.
OL, H-Back, WR, WR, SS, PR/KR, CB, CB, That's 8

Plus potential spots at back up safety, ILB, back up QB,

We can use the other picks to trade up, trade for 2015 picks or draft pup list guys

That's 11 if I'm counting your potential openings correctly. He drafted 11 players. Not sure what the big deal is because he assumed some might end up on the PS...if they do well, they might make the team, so who knows? I don't disagree that it's smart to grab guys you can hide on the PuP, but the downside to that of course is that if you need that draft pick to play sooner, but they're not healthy until mid-way through the season, you have to go out and find a free agent player to meet that immediate need. So it's a risk either way.

It's not life and death but if it were up to me I wouldn't spend a draft pick on a player that I figured would probably end up being cut and hope to put on the practice squad. The other teams won't let us. We drafted 3 last year and 2 are on other teams. Three 7th rd picks to get 1 practice squad player.

Would you rather have a similar thing happen this year or maybe get Aaron Colvin in rd 6 and and Spencer Long and Trey Millard in rd 7 plus a return man like a Dri Archer? Or trade 1-2 picks away for 6th rd picks next year.

If I am coming up with a mock I wouldn't have a player in my draft I figured would probably get cut and try to stash on the practice squad IF he cleared waivers. He had 3. Call it a difference of opinion. That's what these forums are for anyway I guess.

Feb 28, 2014 at 4:02 PM

#79

49erKing
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Posts: 18,808

That's a big man!

[ Edited by fortyninerglory on Feb 28, 2014 at 4:03 PM ]

Feb 28, 2014 at 5:51 PM

#80

9ersLiferInChicago
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Posts: 11,294

Originally posted by CorvaNinerFan:
I've read more about McGill and understand the comments WRT not playing up to his size...I was thinking because he played in the Pac 12 he'd be more adept at pass coverage since they play more wide open offense vs the Big 10. Also like a couple of other guys maybe 3rd rd or so...Walt Aikens and Pierre Desir. They've both good sized and reportedly have good cover skills and aren't afraid to stick their nose into receivers/ball carriers. Sure looks like your point about not drafting a C (especially early) has been born out by Kilgore's extension. Also think this sets up Looney to take over at LG once Iupati's agent prices his client beyond what Baalke will pay. That still leaves Snyder and Seymour for interior OL depth.

This!! This is exactly one of the reasons I didn't pick him in my mock. Plus, unlike most I just don't think we need to address the center position, at least not in the draft. This is why we groom players, to take over starting spots. It's Kilgore time this season. Lets see how that pans out before we declare its time to draft another center.

Feb 28, 2014 at 6:00 PM

#81

9ersLiferInChicago
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Posts: 11,294

Originally posted by MC9BEAT:

Originally posted by 9ersLiferInChicago:

Originally posted by MC9BEAT:
You have 3 PS ( Practive Squad) projects in the draft. You want to waste 3 picks on players who will probably get snatched up by other teams when we cut them to get down to the 53 man roster before they can even see our PS? Why waste the picks?
Seriously! You do realize we don't have many holes in our starting lineup. Save for the 1st pick this whole draft is gonna be for essentially backups and guys to be groomed. On offence we have no starting spots really open for competition. On defense it's one, maybe two (the CB spots) if T. Brown walks (like i think he will). We have 12 picks. I refuse to believe HarBaalk will trade away 9 or so picks to move up. We are gonna stockpile picks to keep a steady flow of talent in the building to stay in prime position to draft for the future and maintain a healthy level of competition up and down the roster. And you cannot do either by trading away all your picks.
You don't have to necessarily start to make an impact. See Aldon Smith stats as a rookie. Even if Boldin resign he won't be here for more than a couple of years and Crabtree might be gone after next year as well. Add to that 2 yrs in a row we have lost 2 receivers to injury and we need a couple in this draft.

We have 2 quality CB's signed plus Rogers who might be gone so we could use a couple CB's as well.

Whitner might not be back and I don't feel that good about the back ups if we lost a starter to injury so we could use a safety or two.

A spot on the roster opens up with Goodwin going and we might not be able to retain Iupati so we may want to draft a replacement for him in this draft.

Defensive lineman and pass rushers can rotate in immediately.

We need a PR/KR

We may want to go after an ILB with Bowman being out probably half the season and Willis approaching 30

Your logic makes no sense. Who said anything about trading away all our picks? All I said was that if we get to the 6th round after having already drafted 7-8 players and we don't see a player that we have a spot on the roster he could probably take then instead of just drafting some camp competition that you will probably have to cut and hope to put on the practice squad why not target a position that is open like a return man or draft a PUP list guy like Spencer Long or Aaron Colvin or trade for a 205 pick. AFTER having drafted 7-8 players. That is hardly trading away all our picks.

I get the feeling you read only the names of the guys I picked and not the reason I made the picks and didn't read my entire mock. Look, I know it's long & comprehensive reading, but it's worth it.

Feb 28, 2014 at 6:07 PM

#82

9ersLiferInChicago
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Posts: 11,294

Originally posted by fortyninerglory:
That's a big man!

Which, is why I want us to draft him.

Feb 28, 2014 at 6:28 PM

#83

bigwads
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Posts: 5,890

Janis is a 3rd rounder and at the latest a 4th. Roby is the most overrated cb in the draft.

Feb 28, 2014 at 6:29 PM

#84

MC9BEAT
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Posts: 1,173

Originally posted by 9ersLiferInChicago:

Originally posted by MC9BEAT:

Originally posted by 9ersLiferInChicago:

Originally posted by MC9BEAT:
You have 3 PS ( Practive Squad) projects in the draft. You want to waste 3 picks on players who will probably get snatched up by other teams when we cut them to get down to the 53 man roster before they can even see our PS? Why waste the picks?
Seriously! You do realize we don't have many holes in our starting lineup. Save for the 1st pick this whole draft is gonna be for essentially backups and guys to be groomed. On offence we have no starting spots really open for competition. On defense it's one, maybe two (the CB spots) if T. Brown walks (like i think he will). We have 12 picks. I refuse to believe HarBaalk will trade away 9 or so picks to move up. We are gonna stockpile picks to keep a steady flow of talent in the building to stay in prime position to draft for the future and maintain a healthy level of competition up and down the roster. And you cannot do either by trading away all your picks.
You don't have to necessarily start to make an impact. See Aldon Smith stats as a rookie. Even if Boldin resign he won't be here for more than a couple of years and Crabtree might be gone after next year as well. Add to that 2 yrs in a row we have lost 2 receivers to injury and we need a couple in this draft.

We have 2 quality CB's signed plus Rogers who might be gone so we could use a couple CB's as well.

Whitner might not be back and I don't feel that good about the back ups if we lost a starter to injury so we could use a safety or two.

A spot on the roster opens up with Goodwin going and we might not be able to retain Iupati so we may want to draft a replacement for him in this draft.

Defensive lineman and pass rushers can rotate in immediately.

We need a PR/KR

We may want to go after an ILB with Bowman being out probably half the season and Willis approaching 30

Your logic makes no sense. Who said anything about trading away all our picks? All I said was that if we get to the 6th round after having already drafted 7-8 players and we don't see a player that we have a spot on the roster he could probably take then instead of just drafting some camp competition that you will probably have to cut and hope to put on the practice squad why not target a position that is open like a return man or draft a PUP list guy like Spencer Long or Aaron Colvin or trade for a 205 pick. AFTER having drafted 7-8 players. That is hardly trading away all our picks.

I get the feeling you read only the names of the guys I picked and not the reason I made the picks and didn't read my entire mock. Look, I know it's long & comprehensive reading, but it's worth it.

No , I read it. You listed all 3 players as PS Projects and then went on to say our practice squad would get absolutely raped and you are right about that.

I just don't see those players making it to our practice squad. They would get snatched up by other teams and drafting them would have been a waste. I would sign them all to UDFA contracts in a heart beat but if we don't see a roster spot for them before we draft them then I wouldn't spend the pick. I would rather take a PUP list player that would have gone earlier in the draft and would make our team the next year and can't be snatched up or a player like a return man that would make the team or trade the pick for a future better pick than draft a player I thought was a PS Project and would most likely end up on another team anyway.

Just an opinion.

Feb 28, 2014 at 6:56 PM

#85

queretano
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Posts: 1,795

Very good one

Feb 28, 2014 at 7:47 PM

#86

9ersLiferInChicago
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Posts: 11,294

Originally posted by MC9BEAT:
It's not life and death but if it were up to me I wouldn't spend a draft pick on a player that I figured would probably end up being cut and hope to put on the practice squad. The other teams won't let us. We drafted 3 last year and 2 are on other teams. Three 7th rd picks to get 1 practice squad player.

Would you rather have a similar thing happen this year or maybe get Aaron Colvin in rd 6 and and Spencer Long and Trey Millard in rd 7 plus a return man like a Dri Archer? Or trade 1-2 picks away for 6th rd picks next year.

If I am coming up with a mock I wouldn't have a player in my draft I figured would probably get cut and try to stash on the practice squad IF he cleared waivers. He had 3. Call it a difference of opinion. That's what these forums are for anyway I guess.

OK, here are our undisputed pre-draft locks to make the team:

Starters:
Offense - C. Kaep, Gore, Miller, Staley, Iupati, Kilgore, Boone, A. Davis, V. Davis, Crabs, Boldin
Defense - Cowboy, Williams, Ray Mack, A. Smith, Brooks, Willis, Wilhoite, Reid
19 total

Non-starters:
Offense - Lattimore, Hunter, LMJ, Dixon, Patton, V. McDonald, Celek, Looney, Snyder,
Defense - Dorsey, Tank, Dial, Jerod-Eddie, Lemonier, Skuta, Moody, Brock, Cully, Morris, Dahl,
20 total

Special Teams:
Lee, A kicker (who ever that'll be), McDermott, Osgood, Spillman, Ventrone
7 total

Likely locks:
Cox, Seymour, Hitner

That's 49 roster spots spoken for. That leaves 4 roster spots open for competition with one being a possible starter on defense (as it stands pre-draft). I'll give you another two spots for debate purposes. That's 47 open spots accounted for, which leaves 6. If T. Brown and Goodwin return add another two (or one or two).

Now, we have 12 picks, only 6 of which - AT BEST - will make the team unless somebody honestly gets beat out. That leaves 5 players that we draft will have to cut, or cut from the above locks. So help me out, under these circumstances with the depth we already have, how dose JH & Co. avoid knowingly drafting long-shot guys they know might not make the team?

[ Edited by 9ersLiferInChicago on Feb 28, 2014 at 7:51 PM ]

Feb 28, 2014 at 7:54 PM

#87

9ersLiferInChicago
Veteran
Posts: 11,294

Originally posted by bigwads:
Janis is a 3rd rounder and at the latest a 4th. Roby is the most overrated cb in the draft.

That's a matter of opinion. But then I thin Verrett is overrated as well.

Feb 28, 2014 at 9:05 PM

#88

dtg_9er
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Posts: 33,204

Originally posted by 9ersLiferInChicago:
OK, here are our undisputed pre-draft locks to make the team:

Starters:
Offense - C. Kaep, Gore, Miller, Staley, Iupati, Kilgore, Boone, A. Davis, V. Davis, Crabs, Boldin
Defense - Cowboy, Williams, Ray Mack, A. Smith, Brooks, Willis, Wilhoite, Reid
19 total

Non-starters:
Offense - Lattimore, Hunter, LMJ, Dixon, Patton, V. McDonald, Celek, Looney, Snyder,
Defense - Dorsey, Tank, Dial, Jerod-Eddie, Lemonier, Skuta, Moody, Brock, Cully, Morris, Dahl,
20 total

Special Teams:
Lee, A kicker (who ever that'll be), McDermott, Osgood, Spillman, Ventrone
7 total

Likely locks:
Cox, Seymour, Hitner

That's 49 roster spots spoken for. That leaves 4 roster spots open for competition with one being a possible starter on defense (as it stands pre-draft). I'll give you another two spots for debate purposes. That's 47 open spots accounted for, which leaves 6. If T. Brown and Goodwin return add another two (or one or two).

Now, we have 12 picks, only 6 of which - AT BEST - will make the team unless somebody honestly gets beat out. That leaves 5 players that we draft will have to cut, or cut from the above locks. So help me out, under these circumstances with the depth we already have, how dose JH & Co. avoid knowingly drafting long-shot guys they know might not make the team?

You have many assumptions here that, while they may be likely, are not absolutes. I always think some players are untouchable until they are gone.

Some players who may be gone:
1) Boldin hasn't signed yet. I would not count him as a lock until he is signed sealed and delivered.
2) LB--Strongest unit on the team but the back ups could be improved if they decided to use a high pick. Wilhoite, Skuta, & Moody are likely but aren't locks.
3) RBs--Due to Hunters injury he is not a lock. Is he back to normal? LMJ is a likely lock. Dixon improved a great deal and may be a FB this year. But any could be replaced. Gore--every year folks think he's washed up and yet he proves them wrong, so I doubt this is the year. But eventually...
4) OL--Snyder is very iffy to me. Yes, he can back up all positions but they need a true OT as a back up--with Looney to back up the middle. Kilgore is a big if. He has hung on and has been a valuable back up, but he hasn't moved Goodwin out. If he starts then a replacement for back up is necessary.
5) DL--too many guys as it is unless they draft a monster fairly high or have injuries. A true NT?
6 & 7) WR & TE--at least one and probably two guys to fill out the top five WRs. Celek is a lock? Really?
8-11) Special teams guys are all at risk. Lee is pretty safe but other than that...nada. Then you have no idea how Lattimore and Carradine will do.

Add these to the six you predict and I would say there are anywhere from six to 17 spots available for competition. On top of this the team has suffered injuries in the past and will continue to have guys out for a while or for the year, opening more opportunities. My guess would be for seven or eight picks to stick and any other spots would be taken by FAs. The team is just too close to a championship to risk on rookies.

Now, of these seven or eight we have six picks in the first four rounds so there is room for a couple of late guys to make a difference.

[ Edited by dtg_9er on Feb 28, 2014 at 9:09 PM ]

Feb 28, 2014 at 9:32 PM

#89

9ersLiferInChicago
Veteran
Posts: 11,294

Originally posted by dtg_9er:
You have many assumptions here that, while they may be likely, are not absolutes. I always think some players are untouchable until they are gone.

Some players who may be gone:
1) Boldin hasn't signed yet. I would not count him as a lock until he is signed sealed and delivered.
2) LB--Strongest unit on the team but the back ups could be improved if they decided to use a high pick. Wilhoite, Skuta, & Moody are likely but aren't locks.
3) RBs--Due to Hunters injury he is not a lock. Is he back to normal? LMJ is a likely lock. Dixon improved a great deal and may be a FB this year. But any could be replaced. Gore--every year folks think he's washed up and yet he proves them wrong, so I doubt this is the year. But eventually...
4) OL--Snyder is very iffy to me. Yes, he can back up all positions but they need a true OT as a back up--with Looney to back up the middle. Kilgore is a big if. He has hung on and has been a valuable back up, but he hasn't moved Goodwin out. If he starts then a replacement for back up is necessary.
5) DL--too many guys as it is unless they draft a monster fairly high or have injuries. A true NT?
6 & 7) WR & TE--at least one and probably two guys to fill out the top five WRs. Celek is a lock? Really?
8-11) Special teams guys are all at risk. Lee is pretty safe but other than that...nada. Then you have no idea how Lattimore and Carradine will do.

Add these to the six you predict and I would say there are anywhere from six to 17 spots available for competition. On top of this the team has suffered injuries in the past and will continue to have guys out for a while or for the year, opening more opportunities. My guess would be for seven or eight picks to stick and any other spots would be taken by FAs. The team is just too close to a championship to risk on rookies.

Now, of these seven or eight we have six picks in the first four rounds so there is room for a couple of late guys to make a difference.

WOW, you think there's 17 spots open!

There's a serious difference of opinion here. I cannot wait to see your mock

Feb 28, 2014 at 9:43 PM

#90

MC9BEAT
Veteran
Posts: 1,173

Originally posted by 9ersLiferInChicago:

Originally posted by MC9BEAT:
It's not life and death but if it were up to me I wouldn't spend a draft pick on a player that I figured would probably end up being cut and hope to put on the practice squad. The other teams won't let us. We drafted 3 last year and 2 are on other teams. Three 7th rd picks to get 1 practice squad player.

Would you rather have a similar thing happen this year or maybe get Aaron Colvin in rd 6 and and Spencer Long and Trey Millard in rd 7 plus a return man like a Dri Archer? Or trade 1-2 picks away for 6th rd picks next year.

If I am coming up with a mock I wouldn't have a player in my draft I figured would probably get cut and try to stash on the practice squad IF he cleared waivers. He had 3. Call it a difference of opinion. That's what these forums are for anyway I guess.
OK, here are our undisputed pre-draft locks to make the team:

Starters:
Offense - C. Kaep, Gore, Miller, Staley, Iupati, Kilgore, Boone, A. Davis, V. Davis, Crabs, Boldin
Defense - Cowboy, Williams, Ray Mack, A. Smith, Brooks, Willis, Wilhoite, Reid
19 total

Non-starters:
Offense - Lattimore, Hunter, LMJ, Dixon, Patton, V. McDonald, Celek, Looney, Snyder,
Defense - Dorsey, Tank, Dial, Jerod-Eddie, Lemonier, Skuta, Moody, Brock, Cully, Morris, Dahl,
20 total

Special Teams:
Lee, A kicker (who ever that'll be), McDermott, Osgood, Spillman, Ventrone
7 total

Likely locks:
Cox, Seymour, Hitner

That's 49 roster spots spoken for. That leaves 4 roster spots open for competition with one being a possible starter on defense (as it stands pre-draft). I'll give you another two spots for debate purposes. That's 47 open spots accounted for, which leaves 6. If T. Brown and Goodwin return add another two (or one or two).

Now, we have 12 picks, only 6 of which - AT BEST - will make the team unless somebody honestly gets beat out. That leaves 5 players that we draft will have to cut, or cut from the above locks. So help me out, under these circumstances with the depth we already have, how dose JH & Co. avoid knowingly drafting long-shot guys they know might not make the team?

You win, I stand corrected.

On offense Dixon"s a FA and has not resigned. Celek is no gaurantee.

Defense Dahl and Morris are not locks either

For special teams you put up the #7 and then list 6. And Osgood , Spillman and Ventrone are not locks. If we keep 6 WR's Osgood looks good but if we keep 5 it's risky to go into the season with 4 WR's and a special teams guy. 2 yrs in a row we have lost 2 receivers to injury.

Your last 3. Cox, Seymore and Hitner. They may look to upgrade Seymore. Hitner is a FA unless he signed today and will cost a lot to resign. Cox was released during the season and I believe is not currently under contract. Do you forsee our CB group being Brock, Cully coming off an injury, Rookie, Morris and Cox? I wouldn't be surprised if we draft 2 CB's that make the team.

I could see in a draft.
2 WR's
2 CB's
1 G/C
1 H-back
1-2 Safety's
1 ILB
1 QB
1 PR/KR
That's 10-11 players

All could make the team. You could also see other possibilities. I wouldn't be surprised to see a DE be drafted early and then TJE or Williams or Dial might not be around.

The possiblity has been floated of adding another pass rusher at OLB which would put Skuta in a tough position.

There are more than 4 roster spots or even 6 as you say if we stretch things open depending on the 49ers. 1 Thing you have to remember is THE CAP reigns supreme right now. We have to resign Kap and soon Aldon Smith and Crabtree. We need to free up cap space and rookies are very cap friendly. Players like Whitner and Brown will have to take big pay cuts if they want to stay. Goodwin is gone. With Boldin maybe being here 1-2 more years and Crabtree a FA next year we should add 2 rookie WR's to develop this season. We may draft a G early to take Goodwins spot because Iupati is a FA next year and we will have a very tough time trying to resign him.

Bottom line I think it is a mistake to draft players you don't believe will make the team at the time you draft them. If you don't then you don't. The 49ers will have a plan going in. If they don't see many roster spots available we might take a Dominiqe Easley in rd 2 or 3. We might draft an Aaron Colvin in rd 5. We might trade a 3rd rd pick for a 2nd rd pick in 2015. We might package some picks to move up in rd 1 or rd 2. Whatever the plan is I hope we don't draft a bunch of players that come in and have a good camp and preseason just so we can cut them. It's a waste. If a pick dissapoints it's one thing but if they give you everything you expected when you drafted them then there should be a spot for them unless an UDFA surprises everyone and beats them out.

According to you and the 4 spots open everybody we draft after our 1st pick in rd 3 #77 has no home on our 53 man roster. Really? In your draft you list 9 of YOUR picks making the team so what is this 4 spots open maybe 6 if we stretch it stuff? How can you mock 9 players making the team and claim we only have 4-6 roster spots?
Just my opinion.