How much would you give up for Andrew Luck in 2012?

Originally posted by Multibomber:
This is supposing that Harbaugh thinks that Luck is an absolute cant miss 10yr starter. If a potential All Pro QB is the most valuable think of the face of the football earth, whats the most we'd be willing to give up for him?

I'd give three 1st round picks.

3 #1s is probably the cost to trade up to get Luck or Barkley next year -- maybe 2 #1s and 2 #2s.

Does anyone think that is the plan? I dont see it to be that far fetched that we get a decent veteran this year, fill all the holes we can at other positions, then take out a second mortgage to get Luck next year. 3 #1s, 2 #1s and 3 #2s, whatever the price. Hell, we could do a Ditka and trade away the whole 2012 draft for him.

There are too may variables, unless the Niners plan on tanking the entire season and "securing" the #1 pick next year. Why would another team trade the rights to Luck if they need a franchise QB?

Originally posted by NinerBuff:
There are too may variables, unless the Niners plan on tanking the entire season and "securing" the #1 pick next year. Why would another team trade the rights to Luck if they need a franchise QB?

This. The only scenario I can see where the worst team next year doesn't need a franchise QB is if a team's star QB gets injured or the team used a high first rounder this year to draft Newton or Gabbert. Every year a team comes out of nowhere to absolutely tank and it usually has to do with them not having a franchise QB - see Carolina 2010 - so odds are we will never be in a position to acquire Luck unless we happen to be that team in 2011.

Originally posted by midrdan:

Originally posted by NinerBuff:
There are too may variables, unless the Niners plan on tanking the entire season and "securing" the #1 pick next year. Why would another team trade the rights to Luck if they need a franchise QB?

This. The only scenario I can see where the worst team next year doesn't need a franchise QB is if a team's star QB gets injured or the team used a high first rounder this year to draft Newton or Gabbert. Every year a team comes out of nowhere to absolutely tank and it usually has to do with them not having a franchise QB - see Carolina 2010 - so odds are we will never be in a position to acquire Luck unless we happen to be that team in 2011.

Buffalo or Carolina could easily have the #1 pick next year. I look at the league and see the teams I think have a chance to be really bad in 2011...and most already have some kind of QB project going:

Denver - Tebow
Cleveland - McCoy
Detroit - Stafford

I also don't know if the Rams are going to relapse or not...it's possible.

However, there are other teams that will probably suck that do not have quarterbacks:

Carolina
Buffalo
Arizona
Tennessee
Washington
Seattle
Oakland

I expect TEN, WAS, and SEA to address their long-term QB issues this draft or offseason (e.g. Kolb). Buffalo is either going to take Cam Newton or ride out Fitzgerald. Who knows what Carolina is going to do -- I would bet on Gabbert after his Pro Day.

If you're looking at futures odds, Carolina and Arizona are strong candidates to have the #1 pick in 2012:

CAR 60/1 to win NFC
AZ is 50/1 to win the NFC
BUF is 50/1 to win AFC
DEN is 50/1 to win AFC
CLE is 40/1 to win AFC
CIN is 40/1 to win AFC
OAK is 40/1 to win AFC

To note, the Niners are 20/1 to win the NFC, 8th best in the conference. However, please note that there is a huge drop-off in odds from 7th (NYG at 8/1) to 8th (SF 20/1). So basically the bookies think (at this early point) that there are 7 contenders in the NFC. The AFC is even more dramatic, with the 6th best team (BAL) at 6/1 and the 7th best team (KC) at 15/1.

If I were a betting man, I would wager that Arizona will have the worst record next year. As a result, Luck will probably be their 2012 opening day starter.

[ Edited by nickbradley on Mar 30, 2011 at 12:52:01 ]

I love how people automatically assume he'll be better next year despite the loss of 3 lineman,2 recievers and most of all his mentor.

Personally I think his value is at its highest right now. Next year it might not be.

Nothing now. Who knows what spot we'll be in at this time next year. Just let it ride.

Originally posted by 49ersGiantspride:
I love how people automatically assume he'll be better next year despite the loss of 3 lineman,2 recievers and most of all his mentor.

Personally I think his value is at its highest right now. Next year it might not be.

Inclined to agree...I think his value will drop. Which will make him attainable for us.

lets just lose all our games this year. Then he'll be for free!

We have a 1in 15 chance of not giving up anything. Considering the Niners have only David Carr at qb, they are courting Alex Smith, there is a chance they could earn the #1 pick, which in a weird way would make the2011 a great season.

I said 1 in 15 because I feel the niners have not had a winnign season in 9 years, so I excluded the teams that have franchise qb's and no doubt will win more than 8 games.

Starting line up to lose 16 games.

LCB Tareel Brown
RCB adams
SS Taylor Mays
FS curtis taylor
ILB Navor Bowman
ILB scott Mckillop
OLB parys Harlson
OLB ahmad brooks
LDE ray mcdondald
NT RJF
RDE Isaac Sopaga

WR Kyle Wilson
WR Ted Ginn
TE Nate Byname
LT Alex Boone
LG snyder
LG ICter wragge
RG chilo rachal
RT anthony davis
FB Norris
RB anthony Dixon
QB David Carr

Valrods virginity

Originally posted by jreff22:
Valrods virginity

Valrod!

Originally posted by 9erred:
We have a 1in 15 chance of not giving up anything. Considering the Niners have only David Carr at qb, they are courting Alex Smith, there is a chance they could earn the #1 pick, which in a weird way would make the2011 a great season.

I said 1 in 15 because I feel the niners have not had a winnign season in 9 years, so I excluded the teams that have franchise qb's and no doubt will win more than 8 games.

Starting line up to lose 16 games.

LCB Tareel Brown
RCB adams
SS Taylor Mays
FS curtis taylor
ILB Navor Bowman
ILB scott Mckillop
OLB parys Harlson
OLB ahmad brooks
LDE ray mcdondald
NT RJF
RDE Isaac Sopaga

WR Kyle Wilson
WR Ted Ginn
TE Nate Byname
LT Alex Boone
LG snyder
LG ICter wragge
RG chilo rachal
RT anthony davis
FB Norris
RB anthony Dixon
QB David Carr

It is SCARY when you takeout GORE, CRABTREE, VD, IUPATI, JUSTIN SMITH, WILLIS, and CLEMENTS, you realize the team has only 7 players who are impact players on the team. The rest are ???

Originally posted by 9erred:

Originally posted by 9erred:
We have a 1in 15 chance of not giving up anything. Considering the Niners have only David Carr at qb, they are courting Alex Smith, there is a chance they could earn the #1 pick, which in a weird way would make the2011 a great season.

I said 1 in 15 because I feel the niners have not had a winnign season in 9 years, so I excluded the teams that have franchise qb's and no doubt will win more than 8 games.

Starting line up to lose 16 games.

LCB Tareel Brown
RCB adams
SS Taylor Mays
FS curtis taylor
ILB Navor Bowman
ILB scott Mckillop
OLB parys Harlson
OLB ahmad brooks
LDE ray mcdondald
NT RJF
RDE Isaac Sopaga

WR Kyle Wilson
WR Ted Ginn
TE Nate Byname
LT Alex Boone
LG snyder
LG ICter wragge
RG chilo rachal
RT anthony davis
FB Norris
RB anthony Dixon
QB David Carr

It is SCARY when you takeout GORE, CRABTREE, VD, IUPATI, JUSTIN SMITH, WILLIS, and CLEMENTS, you realize the team has only 7 players who are impact players on the team. The rest are ???

average. And that is the way most teams are. How many impact players did you expect, out of curiosity?