Mock Offseason (for fun)

FA:
Sign:
LB Zach Brown (Buffalo)
C J.C. Tretter (Green Bay)
WR Terrelle Pryor (Cleveland)
RB Rex Burkhead, (Cincinnatti)
QB Brian Hoyer (Chicago)

Re-sign:
Andrew Tiller (starting caliber guard)
Gerald Hodges (compete to start inside or strong side)
Quinton Patton (WR depth)
Blaine Gabbert (QB depth)
Chris Jones (DL depth)
Glenn Dorsery (DL depth)
Shaun Draughn (versatile backup RB)
Phil Dawson (can still kick it)

Let Walk:
everyone else

Cut:
Torrey Smith
Eric Reid
Ahmad Brooks

Draft Trades:
1st (#2 overall) and 4th (#109) to San Diego for 1st (7th) and 2nd (#38)

Draft:
1st (#7): Derek Barnett, DE Tennessee - plug-and-play pass-rusher
2nd (#34): Zay Jones, WR - solid WR prospect with #1 potential, huge college production, not far behind behind the top 3 guys
2nd (#38): Deshone Kizer, QB Notre Dame - fourth QB taken, falls to 2nd round where he's well worth stash and develop
3rd (#66): Chris Godwin, WR Penn State - fast and physical WR
4th (comp) (#143): Josh Jones, S N.C. State - athletic in-the-box safety to compete with Tartt opposite Ward
fill out the late rounds with OL, TE, and CB depth

LEZ do it

No to Burkhead. There are better RBs available in the middle of the draft.

Pryor would be ok, but I think he stays in Cleveland. Besides, he is still developmental at this point.

NO to Gabbert. Why, why, why? We have seen what he is, he has no knowledge of Shanahan's system, and he is wasting a roster spot.

No to Patton. I wish him luck, but this WR corps needs to be rebuilt. We have waited years for him to be marginally effective and he isn't even that. I would much rather see an ultra raw rookie get his roster spot.

Tiller, Hodges, Dorsey, and Jones are all guys who don't fit the new system, have major injury concerns, and/or are past their prime. Move on from them.

Torrey Smith and Eric Reid might actually have some value. Smith is still a deep threat if he has support and a good QB. Reid might be a decent SS in the new system.

That trade seems unbalanced. Moving up 5 spots in the top ten would cost more than swapping a 2nd for a 4th.

Originally posted by Karma:
No to Burkhead. There are better RBs available in the middle of the draft.

Pryor would be ok, but I think he stays in Cleveland. Besides, he is still developmental at this point.

NO to Gabbert. Why, why, why? We have seen what he is, he has no knowledge of Shanahan's system, and he is wasting a roster spot.

No to Patton. I wish him luck, but this WR corps needs to be rebuilt. We have waited years for him to be marginally effective and he isn't even that. I would much rather see an ultra raw rookie get his roster spot.

Tiller, Hodges, Dorsey, and Jones are all guys who don't fit the new system, have major injury concerns, and/or are past their prime. Move on from them.

Torrey Smith and Eric Reid might actually have some value. Smith is still a deep threat if he has support and a good QB. Reid might be a decent SS in the new system.

That trade seems unbalanced. Moving up 5 spots in the top ten would cost more than swapping a 2nd for a 4th.

You may be right on most of these gripes, but it looks like I called the Torrey Smith cut mere hours before it was reported

Originally posted by SammyFrancisco:

You may be right on most of these gripes, but it looks like I called the Torrey Smith cut mere hours before it was reported

I know just when to stick my foot in my mouth!

can't take you serious with Blaine Gabbert and Quitton Patton on the team

try again

No to Burkhead, Gabbert, Chris Jones.
No to Zay Jones.

Originally posted by stonecold590:
No to Burkhead, Gabbert, Chris Jones.
No to Zay Jones.

What do you have against Zay Jones? He's moving up the WR rankings for me. We knew from his tape he had amazing hands and route-running skills. Then he showed up at Senior Bowl in a big way AND lit up the combine after that. I'm liking him more than Mike Williams now...

sGiving away value in the trade of draft picks is just suicide. Check it out:

Our #2 valued at 2600 points
Our #109 valued at 76

Their #7 valued at 1500
Their 38 valued at 520

These valuations arent set in stone but they give you an idea of relative values. So in this trade you have in effect given away in value the #28th overall pick.

Originally posted by English:

sGiving away value in the trade of draft picks is just suicide. Check it out:

Our #2 valued at 2600 points
Our #109 valued at 76

Their #7 valued at 1500
Their 38 valued at 520

These valuations arent set in stone but they give you an idea of relative values. So in this trade you have in effect given away in value the #28th overall pick.

You're right that these valuations aren't set in stone and in some cases they aren't even close to reality. Teams value players not picks.

Do you honestly think there's an 1100 point difference (mid-first round pick) between Solomon Thomas or Jamal Adams (guys in play for the #2 pick) and Leonard Fournette, Deshaun Watson, and Malik Hooker (guys who could be there at 7)?

In reality, we wouldn't be giving away the value of a 1st round pick - we'd likely be getting more value in return because some of the guys we're considering at 2 could still be there at 7 (we'd be getting a 2nd round draft pick and still picking the same player).

If Garrett is on the board, that's another story, but I think a lot of fans are way too optimistic about what the #2 pick is worth this year.

The most likely outcome is that we keep the pick. Teams have a tendency of roughly following the pick value chart and it's not worth it to trade up to #2 this year if you remotely follow that chart. The only way we pull off a trade is if someone overvalues Trubisky (and thinks there's a wide gap between him and Watson), but I don't see that happening.

Originally posted by English:
sGiving away value in the trade of draft picks is just suicide. Check it out:

Our #2 valued at 2600 points
Our #109 valued at 76

Their #7 valued at 1500
Their 38 valued at 520

These valuations arent set in stone but they give you an idea of relative values. So in this trade you have in effect given away in value the #28th overall pick.

Thanks for pointing this out. I used the Pick Value Calculator pinned to the War Room page. According to that 2+109 = 1950, and 7+38 = 2254. So I actually thought I was being greedy

Know why such variation exists between the valuation systems?

Originally posted by eastcoast49ersfan:

Originally posted by English:

sGiving away value in the trade of draft picks is just suicide. Check it out:

Our #2 valued at 2600 points
Our #109 valued at 76

Their #7 valued at 1500
Their 38 valued at 520

These valuations arent set in stone but they give you an idea of relative values. So in this trade you have in effect given away in value the #28th overall pick.

You're right that these valuations aren't set in stone and in some cases they aren't even close to reality. Teams value players not picks.

Do you honestly think there's an 1100 point difference (mid-first round pick) between Solomon Thomas or Jamal Adams (guys in play for the #2 pick) and Leonard Fournette, Deshaun Watson, and Malik Hooker (guys who could be there at 7)?

In reality, we wouldn't be giving away the value of a 1st round pick - we'd likely be getting more value in return because some of the guys we're considering at 2 could still be there at 7 (we'd be getting a 2nd round draft pick and still picking the same player).

If Garrett is on the board, that's another story, but I think a lot of fans are way too optimistic about what the #2 pick is worth this year.

The most likely outcome is that we keep the pick. Teams have a tendency of roughly following the pick value chart and it's not worth it to trade up to #2 this year if you remotely follow that chart. The only way we pull off a trade is if someone overvalues Trubisky (and thinks there's a wide gap between him and Watson), but I don't see that happening.

The point is, the value of a player varies from team to team. It depends on the type of football they play, their current roster, ages and injury record of relevant players and so forth. Hence the value chart. Which is why I said that the valuations are not set in stone but that they give you an idea of relative values. So everything after that when you bring in specific players becomes sheer speculation because we don't know who any of the teams will take. Hence the value chart.

Originally posted by SammyFrancisco:

Originally posted by English:

sGiving away value in the trade of draft picks is just suicide. Check it out:

Our #2 valued at 2600 points
Our #109 valued at 76

Their #7 valued at 1500
Their 38 valued at 520

These valuations arent set in stone but they give you an idea of relative values. So in this trade you have in effect given away in value the #28th overall pick.

Thanks for pointing this out. I used the Pick Value Calculator pinned to the War Room page. According to that 2+109 = 1950, and 7+38 = 2254. So I actually thought I was being greedy

Know why such variation exists between the valuation systems?

The first one in the DWR was dated 2007. Not sure if that was the one you were using. There are some details and another list of values at the attached site:

https://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress.com/2011/11/30/how-to-value-nfl-draft-picks/

As I mentioned elsewhere, these values aren't set in stone. But they give you a guide as to relative values.

Originally posted by SammyFrancisco:

Originally posted by English:

sGiving away value in the trade of draft picks is just suicide. Check it out:

Our #2 valued at 2600 points
Our #109 valued at 76

Their #7 valued at 1500
Their 38 valued at 520

These valuations arent set in stone but they give you an idea of relative values. So in this trade you have in effect given away in value the #28th overall pick.

Thanks for pointing this out. I used the Pick Value Calculator pinned to the War Room page. According to that 2+109 = 1950, and 7+38 = 2254. So I actually thought I was being greedy

Know why such variation exists between the valuation systems?

Pretty sure the pinned one is for fantasy football drafts if it's the one I'm thinking of.

Originally posted by SammyFrancisco:

Originally posted by stonecold590:

No to Burkhead, Gabbert, Chris Jones.
No to Zay Jones.

What do you have against Zay Jones? He's moving up the WR rankings for me. We knew from his tape he had amazing hands and route-running skills. Then he showed up at Senior Bowl in a big way AND lit up the combine after that. I'm liking him more than Mike Williams now...

You like Zay Jones more than Mike Williams? One is a true gamer and Jones has bad foot movement and zero upper body strength. Jones will get stopped at the line against NFL CBs.

Originally posted by stonecold590:

Originally posted by SammyFrancisco:

Originally posted by stonecold590:

No to Burkhead, Gabbert, Chris Jones.
No to Zay Jones.

What do you have against Zay Jones? He's moving up the WR rankings for me. We knew from his tape he had amazing hands and route-running skills. Then he showed up at Senior Bowl in a big way AND lit up the combine after that. I'm liking him more than Mike Williams now...

You like Zay Jones more than Mike Williams? One is a true gamer and Jones has bad foot movement and zero upper body strength. Jones will get stopped at the line against NFL CBs.

Let me put it this way. I am no Expert Pro Scout as is anyone of this forum. Some are very good but no pro scouts here. So it comes down to opinion. In my opinion I would take Cooper Kupp over Zay Jones every time. Part of that is because I have watched Kupp play every game for the past 3 years. He will make some team look very smart when it's all said and done.