2011 top FA CB (all potential starters for niners)

Originally posted by Shorteous:

Originally posted by NinerBuff:

Originally posted by WillistheWall:
If the CBA gets done I'm going to be pumped that we could sign a guy like Joseph or Cromartie.

This is the one position that I think the Niners will bring in someone from another team. The rest of their FAs will be re-signings.

Here's my order:

1. Asomugha, Elite (~5% - not a contender, but easy relocation)
2. Joseph, Really Good (~5% - not a contender)
3. Rodgers, Really Good (~5% - not a contender, but off year might reduce his value)
4. Marshall, Good (~10% - would have to overpay)
5. Taylor, Good (~10% - see Marshall)
6. Grimes, Good (~10% - See Marshall)
7. Cromartie, Good (~20% - character issues might lessen his payday)

Overall, the chance that we sign one of these guys... ~25%. Which means that most likely, we wont get a new starting CB in FA.

Forgive because I'm bored, but if we were to say your percentages were correct then we could find the probability of signing at least one CB by taking 1- compliment of not signing any of them.

Hence if the p(sign=.05) then p(not sign = .95) if we assume the signings are independent we can say the (probability of signing 1 or more) p(signing>=1) = 1- P(nobody signing). therefore we can multiple the probability of each person not signing like so (.95*.95*.95*.9*.9*.8) = .500002 :: this is the probability that nobody signs which means the probably of all the other possibilities combined must equal 1-.5 = .5.

In conclusion, if we use your imaginary numbers then the probability of us singing one of those players is 50%

... sorry

Originally posted by NinerBuff:

Originally posted by Shorteous:

Originally posted by NinerBuff:

Originally posted by WillistheWall:
If the CBA gets done I'm going to be pumped that we could sign a guy like Joseph or Cromartie.

This is the one position that I think the Niners will bring in someone from another team. The rest of their FAs will be re-signings.

Here's my order:

1. Asomugha, Elite (~5% - not a contender, but easy relocation)
2. Joseph, Really Good (~5% - not a contender)
3. Rodgers, Really Good (~5% - not a contender, but off year might reduce his value)
4. Marshall, Good (~10% - would have to overpay)
5. Taylor, Good (~10% - see Marshall)
6. Grimes, Good (~10% - See Marshall)
7. Cromartie, Good (~20% - character issues might lessen his payday)

Overall, the chance that we sign one of these guys... ~25%. Which means that most likely, we wont get a new starting CB in FA.

Forgive because I'm bored, but if we were to say your percentages were correct then we could find the probability of signing at least one CB by taking 1- compliment of not signing any of them.

Hence if the p(sign=.05) then p(not sign = .95) if we assume the signings are independent we can say the (probability of signing 1 or more) p(signing>=1) = 1- P(nobody signing). therefore we can multiple the probability of each person not signing like so (.95*.95*.95*.9*.9*.8) = .500002 :: this is the probability that nobody signs which means the probably of all the other possibilities combined must equal 1-.5 = .5.

In conclusion, if we use your imaginary numbers then the probability of us singing one of those players is 50%

... sorry

As a matter of fact, I actually did calculate that up when I was writing it, but my BS detector when off when I was done. Do I actually think there is a 1 in 2 chance of signing one of these guys... no. So I adjusted my hypothetical-hypothetical numbers.

Good catch by the way!

Originally posted by Shorteous:

Originally posted by NinerBuff:

Originally posted by Shorteous:

Originally posted by NinerBuff:

Originally posted by WillistheWall:
If the CBA gets done I'm going to be pumped that we could sign a guy like Joseph or Cromartie.

This is the one position that I think the Niners will bring in someone from another team. The rest of their FAs will be re-signings.

Here's my order:

1. Asomugha, Elite (~5% - not a contender, but easy relocation)
2. Joseph, Really Good (~5% - not a contender)
3. Rodgers, Really Good (~5% - not a contender, but off year might reduce his value)
4. Marshall, Good (~10% - would have to overpay)
5. Taylor, Good (~10% - see Marshall)
6. Grimes, Good (~10% - See Marshall)
7. Cromartie, Good (~20% - character issues might lessen his payday)

Overall, the chance that we sign one of these guys... ~25%. Which means that most likely, we wont get a new starting CB in FA.

Forgive because I'm bored, but if we were to say your percentages were correct then we could find the probability of signing at least one CB by taking 1- compliment of not signing any of them.

Hence if the p(sign=.05) then p(not sign = .95) if we assume the signings are independent we can say the (probability of signing 1 or more) p(signing>=1) = 1- P(nobody signing). therefore we can multiple the probability of each person not signing like so (.95*.95*.95*.9*.9*.8) = .500002 :: this is the probability that nobody signs which means the probably of all the other possibilities combined must equal 1-.5 = .5.

In conclusion, if we use your imaginary numbers then the probability of us singing one of those players is 50%

... sorry

As a matter of fact, I actually did calculate that up when I was writing it, but my BS detector when off when I was done. Do I actually think there is a 1 in 2 chance of signing one of these guys... no. So I adjusted my hypothetical-hypothetical numbers.

Good catch by the way!

haha, to funny. With the addition of all this math, i'm thinking the probability of this thread dying is going up up up