Are the Miami Dolphins the Model for Victory?

nickbradley · 2009-08-29T20:33:45-07:00

I'm a big believer in statistics predicting victory. As a result, I've built my own statistic for total performance: Total Offensive Yards Total Yards Allowed (-) Net Punting Yards Net Punting Yards Allowed Forced Turnover Equivalent (# of turnovers x opp. net punting average) PR yards allowed Offensive Turnover Equivalent (# of turnovers x net punting average) (-) field goal yards (I subtract 17 yds for every FG made, 7 yds for every FG missed) penalty yards (-) ** I haven't factored in opp. FG yards yet, but I will ** ** I haven't thrown in a couple of other stats as well, such as kickoff returns) Based on those results, there is an extremely strong correlation between wins and what I call "total net real yards". The top 7 teams all made the playoffs, with Miami getting 55 yards per win. There's a drop-off after Philly (#7), with the next 4 teams (NO, NE, CAR, and TB) all being tied around -26/-27 (all within 1 pt of each other). The bottom of the list also mirrors the draft order very closely. Teams at the bottom perform exponentially worse per game than those at the top: St. Louis was 5x worse than Minnesota. Here is the order: Miami Dolphins, Baltimore Ravens, New York Giants, Indianapolis Colts, Tennessee Titans, Pittsburgh Steelers, Philadelphia Eagles, New Orleans Saints, New England Patriots, Carolina Panthers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Arizona Cardinals, Chicago Bears, Dallas Cowboys, Minnesota Vikings, Washington Redskins, Atlanta Falcons, Houston Texans, San Diego Chargers, New York Jets, Denver Broncos, Green Bay Packers, Buffalo Bills, San Francisco 49ers, Jacksonville Jaguars, Oakland Raiders, Cleveland Browns, Kansas City Chiefs, Cincinnati Bengals, Seattle Seahawks, St. Louis Rams, Detroit Lions. So, what did Miami do? They played conservative football, forced turnovers, and kicked field goals. If you think about it, what really matters when you change possession is where the other team takes over. So, if you drive for 30 and punt for 30 (net), its the same as driving for 20 and punting for 40 (net). If you're netting 35 yards a punt, a turnover is like giving up 35 yards on defense. So, if sing takes this approach, don't get mad if he runs a draw play on 3rd and 8. League-wide, 1 out of every 40 offensive plays will result in a turnover. Reducing risk by avoiding turnovers on 2nd and 3rd down is a logical step towards winning more ballgames.

Aug 29, 2009 at 8:41 PM

mcbaes72
Veteran
Posts: 9,679

Very interesting stats/info you got there, had to read it a couple of times through. I won't get mad at Sing as long as we win games. I don't see us lighting it up downfield many time nor running up the score. I see our offense more controlled by Gore/Coffee and even Sheets on the ground. So far, we've seen a lot of screens when the defense blitzes (see Cowboys game). But when our offensive philosophy is ready to change as well as our starting QB, Nate Davis will be ready. He's been more consistent and exciting to watch than Hill/Smith combined!

So, I'm all for a ball-control style game and a defense that's gonna get turnovers, but we lack a pass rush even when we blitz and that's not good. It'll be up to our secondary to cause the turnovers then.

Aug 29, 2009 at 8:56 PM

nickbradley
Member
Posts: 3,755

Originally posted by mcbaes72:
Very interesting stats/info you got there, had to read it a couple of times through. I won't get mad at Sing as long as we win games. I don't see us lighting it up downfield many time nor running up the score. I see our offense more controlled by Gore/Coffee and even Sheets on the ground. So far, we've seen a lot of screens when the defense blitzes (see Cowboys game). But when our offensive philosophy is ready to change as well as our starting QB, Nate Davis will be ready. He's been more consistent and exciting to watch than Hill/Smith combined!

So, I'm all for a ball-control style game and a defense that's gonna get turnovers, but we lack a pass rush even when we blitz and that's not good. It'll be up to our secondary to cause the turnovers then.

We can help the defense by giving the other team a longer field to work with. We do that by converting turnovers into punts!

Did you know that we had the worst plays per turnover ratio in the NFL? 1 turnover every 27 plays! We rarely turned the ball over in the 2nd half of the season, so I imagine that it was around 1 out of 15 or so under JT O'turnover.

Aug 29, 2009 at 9:13 PM

NM49ERFAN
Info N/A

coplicated, but makes a lot of sense.

Aug 29, 2009 at 9:56 PM

NM49ERFAN
Info N/A

coplicated, but makes a lot of sense.

Aug 30, 2009 at 9:40 AM

HoneyBadger49er
Veteran
Posts: 19,054

No Bill Parcells is...

Aug 30, 2009 at 10:00 AM

nickbradley
Member
Posts: 3,755

Originally posted by King49er:
No Bill Parcells is...

Parcells understand how the system works...

Aug 30, 2009 at 1:48 PM

GoreGoreGore
10HourChicken
Posts: 61,382

Originally posted by King49er:
No Bill Parcells is...