The San Francisco 49ers showed resilience, poise, and an outstanding defensive game plan in sweeping the division-rival Los Angeles Rams for the second straight season, this year taking the second game by a 23-20 score in Southern California. As if 2020 had not been unpredictable enough for San Francisco, the Niners have been banned from their Santa Clara facilities due to COVID-19 concerns and will now host a Monday night game in Glendale Arizona against the AFC East-leading Buffalo Bills. Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.
When: Monday December 7th, 2020 at 5:15 pm PST (ESPN/ABC)
Where: State Farm Stadium, Glendale, Arizona
Line: 49ers +1, o/u 48
Buffalo Bills
Coming out of their bye, the Buffalo Bills were sloppy, turning the ball over on three fourth-quarter possessions, but did just enough to hold off the underperforming Los Angeles Chargers by the score of 27-17 in Week 12.
After twelve weeks, the Bills are ranked 6th in passing offense defense-adjusted value over replacement (DVOA) at 32.6 percent, 12th in rushing offense DVOA at -5.9 percent, and 10th with 27.2 points per game. Buffalo's defense is 15th in passing defense DVOA at 5.1 percent, 22nd rushing defense DVOA at -3.5 percent, and 18th with 25.6 points allowed per game.
Josh Allen is 8th in defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR) at 668, 6th with total quarterback rating (QBR) of 75.5 with 22 touchdowns passing, 8 interceptions, and 2 fumbles lost, completing 68.8 percent of his passes. Buffalo ranks 11th in Football Outsiders total DVOA at 9.9 percent, 8th in offensive DVOA at 7.7 percent, and 16th in defensive DVOA at 1.2 percent. Buffalo's offensive line is ranked 19th in pass protection and 23rd in run blocking, while its defensive line is 8th in adjusted sack rate and 19th in adjusted line yards. The Bills are 6-5 against the spread (ATS) and 7-3-1 to the over/under.
San Francisco 49ers
After twelve weeks, the Niners offense is 21st in passing offense DVOA at 8.1 percent, 12th in rushing offense DVOA at -5.6 percent, and 20th with 23.7 points per game. San Francisco's defense is 14th in passing defense DVOA at 4.0 percent, 10th in rushing defense DVOA at -19.2 percent, and 11th with 23.1 points allowed per game.
Nick Mullens is 23rd in DYAR at 59, 28th with QBR of 45.5 with 6 touchdowns, 7 interceptions, and 2 fumbles lost, completing 67.5 percent of his passes. San Francisco ranks 14th in total DVOA at 4.6 percent, 19th in offensive DVOA at -1.4 percent, and 9th in defensive DVOA at -5.9 percent. San Francisco's offensive line is ranked 10th in pass protection and 27th in run blocking, while its defensive line is 20th in adjusted sack rate and 9th in adjusted line yards. The Niners are 5-6 ATS and 5-6 to the over/under.
Robert Saleh was already considered a top NFL head coaching candidate before Week 12. However, with Richard Sherman returning to help captain the defense in tandem with Jason Verrett's continued excellence as one of the top five Pro Football Focus-rated cornerbacks in the NFL, it's almost a forgone conclusion that Saleh will soon leave the Niners for a head coaching position with the outstanding job he continues to do despite the injuries his unit has sustained this season. One question that will help determine the outcome in Week 13 is how the Niners defense will contain Josh Allen and the Bills passing attack.
Highest-graded CBs of 2020:
— PFF (@PFF) December 2, 2020
1. Xavien Howard - 86.6
2. Bryce Callahan - 84.1
3. Darious Williams - 80.9
4. Jaire Alexander - 80.6
5. Jason Verrett - 79.8 pic.twitter.com/1Z0MwC83cq
San Francisco is starting to get healthy and at 5-6 is still in contention for a Wild Card spot and we anticipate that it will continue to play intense, physical football and focus on exploiting weaknesses in Buffalo's rushing defense that will keep the ball out of Josh Allen's hands and open up the rest of the offense. With Deebo Samuel back in the line up and playing like a bully again and Brandon Aiyuk being cleared from the COVID-19 list, Kyle Shanahan should have more success against the Bills defense than he did against the Rams.
I'm hearing WR Brandon Aiyuk, DT D.J. Jones, DE Jordan Willis and TE Daniel Helm (practice squad) will be cleared from reserve/COVID-19 list today and allowed to fly to AZ. Kyle Shanahan said as much yesterday.
The #49ers will have no players remaining on the COVID-19 list.
— Matt Maiocco (@MaioccoNBCS) December 2, 2020
The line opened with the Niners being 2.5-point underdogs and it has shifted 1.5 points in the past 24 hours with San Francisco now being only 1-point underdogs, likely due to sharp bettors taking the Niners, and we can understand why. At face value, it seems very enticing to take the AFC East-leading Bills high-powered offense laying only one point against Nick Mullens and the still-depleted 49ers, but if it seems too good to be true in sports wagering, it usually is.
San Francisco has done better against-the-spread away from Levi's Stadium and as underdogs, and we expect it to continue to play inspired football in a prime time game on Monday night in Arizona, with the defense finding ways to limit Josh Allen and the offense finding early success on the ground, which will open up some big plays for Deebo and Aiyuk in a Niners victory. Pick: 49ers +1
2020 Season ATS
4-6
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