The San Francisco 49ers absolutely curb-stomped the New England Patriots in Foxboro to the tune of 33-6, handing Bill Belichick's squad its third straight loss and Belichick's largest home loss ever and second worst overall loss during his tenure. Now, San Francisco will stay on the road to face the division rival Seattle Seahawks, who will be coming off of their first loss of the 2020 season. Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.
When: Sunday November 1st, 2020 at 1:25 pm PST (FOX)
Where: CenturyLink Field, Seattle, Washington
Line: 49ers +3, o/u 54
Seattle Seahawks
Russell Wilson threw three interceptions and the Seattle Seahawks squandered a ten-point lead with less than seven minutes left in the fourth quarter, ultimately falling 34-37 to the Arizona Cardinals on a Zane Gonzalez field goal in overtime with fifteen seconds left in the contest.
After seven weeks, the Seahawks are ranked 4th in passing offense defense-adjusted value over replacement (DVOA) at 40.1 percent, 6th in rushing offense DVOA at 3.6 percent, and 1st with 33.8 points per game. Seattle's defense is 30th in passing defense DVOA at 27.0 percent, 9th in rushing defense DVOA at -20.3 percent and 23rd with 28.7 points allowed per game.
Russell Wilson is 9th in defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR) at 473, 8th with total quarterback rating (QBR) of 80.6 with 22 touchdowns passing, 6 interceptions and zero fumbles lost, completing 71.2 percent of his passes. Seattle ranks 6th with an ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) score of 4.7 and 8th in Football Outsiders DVOA Adjusted for Volatility Early (DAVE) rating at 12.4 percent, 2nd in offensive DAVE at 14.3 percent, and 22nd in defensive DAVE at 3.7 percent. Seattle's offensive line is ranked 24th in pass protection and 6th in run blocking, while its defensive line is 28th in adjusted sack rate and 11th in adjusted line yards. The Seahawks are 4-2 against the spread (ATS) and 4-2 to the over/under.
San Francisco 49ers
After seven weeks, the Niners offense is 14th in passing offense DVOA at 21.2 percent, 2nd in rushing offense DVOA at 5.3 percent, and 16th with 25.9 points per game. San Francisco's defense is 13th in passing defense DVOA at 4.1 percent, 6th in rushing defense DVOA at -23.0 percent, and 5th with 19.4 points allowed per game.
Jimmy Garoppolo is 14th in DYAR at 285, 20th with QBR of 70.9 with 7 touchdowns, 3 interceptions and zero fumbles lost, completing 66.9 percent of his passes. San Francisco ranks 4th with an ESPN FPI score of 6.2 and 9th in DAVE rating at 12.1 percent, 8th in offensive DAVE at 6.0 percent, and 7th in defensive DAVE at -5.3 percent. San Francisco's offensive line is ranked 20th in pass protection and 14th in run blocking, while its defensive line is 24th in adjusted sack rate and 10th in adjusted line yards. The Niners are 4-3 ATS and 3-4 to the over/under.
Prediction
2020 continues to be the year of key injuries for the Niners as Jeff Wilson Jr and Deebo Samuel were lost in Week 7 and will not play against Seattle after providing huge contributions against New England. As bad as New England appears to be, San Francisco's wins against the Patriots and Rams exemplify outstanding coaching and team chemistry that appears to be improving each week with players stepping up strong for teammates who have been lost to injury.
Seattle's running backs Chris Carson, Travis Homer, and Carlos Hyde, safeties Jamal Adams and Ugochukwu Amadi, cornerback Shaquill Griffin and guard Mike Iupati did not practice on Wednesday and all are questionable for Week 8.
Russell Wilson, DK Metcalf, and the Seattle offense are top flight and will always seem to find a way to score points, even if they might come near the end of the game. However, the Seattle defense is porous against the pass and easily scored upon.
The difference in this game could come down to whether Fred Warner, Tarvarius Moore, Dre Greenlaw, and Marcell Harris can continue their strong play and specifically slow down Russell Wilson the way he was stifled in the second half against Arizona in Week 7.
As has been seen in Kyle Shanahan's offense, when Kyle finds his groove with his offensive play-calling it seems he can plug and play almost any NFL-caliber running back and have success in the running game, and when Shanahan has success in the running game the offense fires on all cylinders. JaMycal Hasty looked good in catching a pass for 16 yards and showed burst in rushing for 57 yards on 9 carries in Week 7 and we foresee him having success in Week 8 if he stays healthy, a big if these days with the Niners. Losing Deebo is a major blow but Brandon Aiyuk should find success on Sunday.
Looking forward to seeing even more JaMycal Hasty against Seattle. 📈 #49ers pic.twitter.com/R93CWHoUjd
— Coach Yac 🗣 (@Coach_Yac) October 28, 2020
In a contrast to not too long ago, Seattle has become a shakier team at home, barely beating a bad New England team in a game that could easily have been lost on the last play and barely beating a bad Vikings team in a game that also could have easily been lost in the last minutes of the game. The Niners have also been shaky at home but are undefeated on the road in 2020 and recently have done well when underdogs.
Even with all the injuries, San Francisco will be the best defense and overall team Seattle has faced at home all season and we see the Niners handing the Seahawks their first home loss of the season. Even if the 49ers happen to lose, we don't see them losing by a large margin and see value in the three points. Pick: 49ers +3
2020 Record ATS
4-3
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