The San Francisco 49ers have been scrambling to find enough healthy wide receivers, but with several players nearing a return, John Lynch and Kyle Shanahan could soon face a different problem: deciding which receiver they can afford to lose.
San Francisco currently has six receivers on its 53-man roster: Mike Evans, Deebo Samuel, Christian Kirk, Jordan Watkins, Jacob Cowing and Brandin Cooks.
Demarcus Robinson could return after the bye week, while rookie De'Zhaun Stribling remains on track for a possible December return. If both are activated, the 49ers would have eight receivers unless they make corresponding roster moves.
NFL teams generally carry five or six receivers. San Francisco could temporarily keep seven, but that would mean sacrificing a roster spot at another position, something Shanahan and Lynch most certainly would not be willing to do.
Brandin Cooks Could Be the First to Go
When the 49ers signed Cooks to their practice squad in September and promoted him to the active roster, they needed an experienced receiver who could help while several others were unavailable.
Cooks gave Shanahan a veteran who has played in multiple NFL offenses, but he hasn't established himself as a significant contributor in San Francisco. His one 13-yard reception against Atlanta did little to strengthen his case for a larger role.
Robinson is in his second year with the team and was already part of Shanahan's plans before his ankle injury; if he's ready to play against the Raiders on November 8, releasing Cooks would be reasonable.
That would bring the receiving corps back to six players without sacrificing one of the younger receivers San Francisco has been developing.
The Risk of Letting the Wrong Receiver Go
When Stribling is ready to return, assuming all receivers are healthy, the 49ers will have to choose among three receivers with different skills.
Cowing is in his third season with Shanahan's system and currently handles punt returns, giving him a role beyond catching passes. Releasing him would force San Francisco to find another returner, although the team has options on its practice squad.
Brandon Codrington, Xavier Smith, or possibly Will Pauling could fill the role, but NFL rules generally allow each practice squad player to be elevated for only three regular-season games. After that, the 49ers would have to sign the player to their 53-man roster for another appearance, potentially using the very roster spot they were trying to free by releasing or trading Cowing.
Cowing's return duties strengthen his case for staying, while Watkins is making his own case with what he can contribute to the passing game.
In his second season, Watkins is still developing, but he has shown flashes of the downfield ability the 49ers need, especially against Atlanta last week. He finished with three receptions for 56 yards, including a 35-yard gain, and nearly added a touchdown before officials ruled that he hadn't maintained possession through the catch.
Of Watkins, Cowing and Kirk, Watkins may have the highest developmental ceiling. His speed gives Shanahan another way to stretch defenses, and additional playing time could help him develop the confidence and consistency needed to become a more dependable contributor.
Releasing him would expose him to waivers, where another team could claim him before San Francisco had fully evaluated his potential.
Kirk brings considerably more NFL experience than Watkins or Cowing, although he has spent less time working in Shanahan's offense.
His debut against Atlanta came after missing the first six games with a calf injury. He played 20 offensive snaps without being targeted, which gives us very little evidence of how effective he might become with additional practice time and opportunities.
Kirk could still develop into a reliable option for Brock Purdy, particularly on shorter and intermediate routes. But if San Francisco keeps him when Stribling returns, it may have to risk losing one of its younger receivers.
Kirk's veteran status offers some flexibility before the trade deadline, since he can generally be released without going through waivers and could choose to re-sign with San Francisco's practice squad. However, beginning November 11, vested veterans also become subject to waivers for the remainder of the season.
With Stribling's return potentially coming in December, Kirk could face the same waiver process as Watkins or Cowing if released. Even if he clears waivers, he would have to agree to join San Francisco's practice squad, and another team could still sign him to its active roster.
The timing gives Shanahan several more weeks to determine whether Kirk's experience can translate into enough production to justify keeping him over a younger receiver.
Mike Evans Adds Another Complication Before the Deadline
As San Francisco works through its receiving depth, Evans' Achilles tendinitis adds another concern as the November 10 trade deadline approaches.
Lynch recently acknowledged that Evans has dealt with this condition before and that it became serious enough to interfere with his ability to play. Although the veteran has been making progress through a recovery plan, that tendinitis could require ongoing management.
The 49ers face the Raiders on November 8, leaving Lynch just two days before the trade deadline to decide whether additional insurance is necessary.
He could acquire another experienced receiver to protect the offense if Evans suffers a setback, but that would cost resources and potentially make the eventual roster decisions even harder.
Alternatively, Lynch could trust Evans' recovery plan and rely on the receivers already available, with Robinson expected to provide another option as he returns from injury.
Even if Evans plays against Las Vegas, one game won't establish whether his Achilles can withstand the remainder of the season and a possible playoff run. Lynch must decide before he has seen how Evans responds over several weeks.
The 49ers Should Be Careful About Sacrificing Watkins
By the time Stribling returns, Shanahan should understand better how Kirk fits the offense and whether Watkins can build on the progress he showed against Atlanta.
Kirk may prove to be the better immediate option, and Cowing could remain the preferred returner. I'd be especially reluctant to sacrifice Watkins, whose speed, inexpensive rookie contract, and familiarity with Shanahan's offense give him considerable value beyond this season.
If Watkins keeps progressing, giving up those future contributions to preserve a veteran roster spot would be hard to justify.
More info on: Brandon Codrington, Brandin Cooks, Jacob Cowing, Mike Evans, Christian Kirk, Will Pauling, Brock Purdy, Demarcus Robinson, Deebo Samuel, Xavier Smith, De'Zhaun Stribling, Jordan Watkins
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