Spoiler alert: Because I believe in the jinx factor, I do not make predictions for my teams. I do, however, judge the predictions of others. In this article, four prognosticators project the San Francisco 49ers making the playoffs with different winning records—but making the playoffs. Evaluator Moe Morton, though, puts the Niners at 9-8 and therefore being left out of the postseason.
He admits, "If Christian McCaffrey, Trent Williams, George Kittle and Mike Evans are mostly healthy, the 49ers can hang with any opponent in a scoring battle." But let's get real. When the Niners have been healthy, they have not simply "hung with" opponents. They have frequently dominated them.
The assumption is that Mike Evans will regress and be less effective than Jauan Jennings, and the draft picks and additions will make no meaningful contributions.
More importantly, though, is that he does not even consider the defense. In the first half of the season last year, when linebacker Fred Warner and defensive end Mykel Williams were playing (even with defensive end Nick Bosa already out), the defense held opponents to 18.3 points per game. That would have tied for 3rd in the league. In the second half, they gave up 22.9 points per game. That would have ranked 18th. But that was better than Detroit and Chicago (who got the number 2 seed and whom the 49ers defeated).
But not only does San Francisco get Bosa, Warner, and Williams back, but general manager John Lynch added defensive tackle Osa Odighizuwa, an upgrade over last year's defensive tackles, and brought back linebacker Dre Greenlaw, a dominant, tone-setting linebacker, and with Warner, forming the best linebacker duo in the league.
Nickel cornerback Upton Stout played very well last year as a rookie, and rookie defensive tackle Alfred Collins, drafted to stop the run, improved as the year progressed. Add to them draftees Gracen Halton—repeatedly judged as a perfect fit for San Francisco's defense—and situational pass rusher Romello Height, who had 10 sacks in the SEC last year, there is no reason not to believe the defense will be closer to what it was at the beginning of the 2025 season, perhaps even better.
As to the offense, even if Brock Purdy does go down—and he might (because any quarterback might)—San Francisco still has Mac Jones, who went 5-3 in relief duty last year. Prorated, that projects to 10 wins, which would likely put the Niners in the playoffs.
Pundits often talk about not having Brandon Aiyuk. The 49ers didn't have him last year, either. They are not "replacing" him with Mike Evans. It would be more accurate to say either Evans is being added to the team or Mike Evans is replacing Jauan Jennings. And that certainly is an upgrade. Christian Kirk would likely be an upgrade to Demarcus Robinson. George Kittle will be back. And last year, even with Mike Evans still in Tampa Bay and without Kittle for a portion of the season (and hobbled for many more), the Niners averaged 25.7 points per game, 10th in the league.
The offense was more productive than the Denver Broncos, Houston Texans, Philadelphia Eagles, and Green Bay Packers, all of which made the playoffs.
So it seems to me that Morton is not looking at the changes that have been made. He does refer to the loss of defensive coordinator Robert Saleh and his replacement, Raheem Morris. And while I would prefer Saleh (I love Saleh), it should be pointed out that Morris is a very solid coordinator. His defense in Atlanta last year was better than that of the Los Angeles Rams and the Baltimore Ravens. That is not the same as the move to Nick Sorensen, who had never been a coordinator, two years ago.
Projections should never be based on worst-case scenarios. They should never take potential injuries into account. If predictors are going to do that, they need to do it for every team.
What would the Kansas City Chiefs' record be if Patrick Mahomes went down?
We pretty much know the answer to that one. The Chiefs lost both games that Mahomes missed last year (and several games before that). But what if they also lose defensive tackle Chris Jones, edge rusher George Karlaftis, and new running back Kenneth Walker III?
Would the Seattle Seahawks make the playoffs if they lost wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba, left tackle Charles Cross, left guard Grey Zabel, and two of their defensive linemen?
The Bears without quarterback Caleb Williams? The Ravens without quarterback Lamar Jackson or the Bills without quarterback Josh Allen?
How favored in their games would the Denver Broncos be without All-Pro cornerback Patrick Surtain II and edge rusher Nik Bonitto, and his 14 sacks?
Predictors should not take a best-case scenario into account in their statistics either, but they should view each team as healthy. (That, sadly, won't be the case. If I could make anything in the NFL happen, after the Niners winning the Super Bowl, it would be for every player to be healthy.) How would teams match up, starters against starters?
I don't think it is reasonable to conclude the Niners would "hang with" any teams. In the past few years, the Niners have not only defeated top squads. They have blown them out.
We can only hope the Niners fulfill the dreams of the Faithful in 2026, but when I look at the roster, at who was lost and who was added, it appears to me the other four I linked above are more objective in their conclusions.
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