San Francisco 49ers fans know heartbreak. Compared to many NFL franchises, they really can't complain, though. After all, the 49ers have hoisted the Lombardi trophy five times.
But it's been 28 years since San Francisco had a parade to celebrate a Super Bowl Champion. Since that day, there have been two Super Bowl losses, five NFC Championship Game losses, and 14 losing seasons. That's a lot of pain for what was once the best franchise in professional sports.
But the 49ers are bringing a really good roster into the 2023 training camp, as they prepare to make a run for a sixth championship. And they have as good of a chance as any to be the final team standing on February 11, 2024. Will the 49ers win Super Bowl LVIII? They will, if these five things happen:
1. Deebo Samuel returns to his 2021 form
In 2021, Deebo Samuel was a Pro Bowler and was named 1st Team All-Pro. He was one of the brightest stars in the NFL, and at times, carried the 49ers' offense on his back.
But an offseason diversion, surrounding his desire to get a new deal, saw him report for 2022 out of shape, and not looking like the same player. On the 49ers' first drive of the 2022 season, Samuel fumbled the ball inside the red zone, as the 49ers were about to take an early lead.
Samuel never looked like his 2021 self last season and dealt with injuries throughout, as well. During the 49ers' mandatory minicamp in June, Samuel admitted his 2022 season was less than stellar. "Oh, it was awful," Samuel said. "Every aspect."
Samuel said his contract dispute was a "distraction" and that it caused him to arrive for training camp unprepared. "I was kind of behind a ball a little bit as far as being in my routine that I'll normally be in for the offseason, getting ready to play because, like I said, a lot of distractions were going on," Samuel said. "I kind of felt it, but I was just trying to will my way to help the team in every aspect possible."
I personally don't think Samuel was awful last season, but he wasn't the player we expected. If he can return to form, it will be a huge boost for the 49ers.
2. Brock Purdy builds off his rookie season
You may have heard this already, but barely-drafted rookie QB, Brock Purdy, stormed onto the scene in 2022 after Trey Lance and Jimmy Garoppolo went down with season-ending injuries. All Purdy did was win every game in which he didn't have his arm almost torn off. And one could argue that Purdy ran the offense more efficiently than Garoppolo did.
It remains to be seen how the second-year QB will return from injury, and how his play will be affected, but if Purdy is able to build off of his rookie season, and get even better, that will go a long way in bringing San Francisco a sixth title.
3. Christian McCaffrey stays healthy
If you said that Christian McCaffrey is the most valuable piece to the 49ers' offensive success, you might have a few people argue that it's always the quarterback, or that it's Trent Williams or Samuel. But you would also have no shortage of people agreeing with you.
McCaffrey rushed for 746 yards in only 11 games for the 49ers, but it's what he adds to the passing game that makes him so special. Last year, McCaffrey had 464 yards receiving for the 49ers, and his ability to be a check-down for his QB, especially when plays break down, separates him from all the others. And that doesn't even mention that McCaffrey is a first-down machine. Without McCaffrey in 2022, the 49ers ranked 13th in 3rd down conversion rate. With the star running back, the 49ers ranked 5th.
He's also a mismatch on the field because he can line up in multiple positions, forcing the defense to pay special attention to him. This opens up things for others like Samuel, George Kittle, and Brandon Aiyuk.
If the 49ers are going to win Super Bowl LVIII, they need to keep McCaffrey healthy. This makes Elijah Mitchell and Jordan Mason very valuable.
4. The offensive line holds up
The 49ers' offensive line has been good, at times, under Kyle Shanahan. And there have been times they haven't been good. Unfortunately, some of those bad times have come in the team's biggest moments of their biggest games.
Like in Super Bowl LIV, when they lost their lead and needed to score. All of a sudden, the offensive line was unable to block Chris Jones. Then in the 2021 NFC Championship Game, after the 49ers had blown another 10-point 4th quarter lead, they were unable to block Aaron Donald and company.
Last season, in the 2022 NFC Championship Game, they didn't even get the chance to lose a 10-point lead because they lost Purdy so early. Even when his replacement, Josh Johnson, came in, the offensive line was not able to protect him, and Johnson left the game, as well.
A year ago, the team entered training camp with a new starter at left guard, center, and right guard. Next week, they enter training camp with a new starter at right tackle, Colton McKivitz.
The offensive line must hold up and be a force in pass protection and in the running game for the 49ers to have any chance of winning the Super Bowl. Of the five things on our list, this one may be the most critical—and maybe even the most difficult.
5. Nick Bosa isn't the only one pressuring quarterbacks
Could the addition of Javon Hargrave be the move that puts the 49ers over the top? It could be. In 2022, 49ers defensive tackles recorded a combined 59 pressures, 4th-fewest in the NFL. Hargrave, meanwhile, had 53 on his own and led all defensive tackles with a 13.2% pressure rate.
Javon Hargrave generated a 14.1% pressure rate over the last two seasons, the only defensive tackle over 12% (min. 500 pass rushes).
💡 49ers defensive tackles recorded 59 pressures combined in 2022, 4th-fewest in the NFL.#FTTB https://t.co/2UIHTjrKzt pic.twitter.com/8AFYTiU31T
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) March 13, 2023
Last season, while playing with the Philadelphia Eagles, Hargrave had 11 sacks, 16 quarterback hits, two fumble recoveries, and a forced fumble. In 2019, DeForest Buckner had 7.5 sacks, 14 quarterback hits, four fumble recoveries, and two forced fumbles (in one less game). So Hargrave's 2022 numbers were very comparable to Buckner's 2019 numbers.
Why does that matter? Because the 49ers haven't had the kind of pass rush they need since 2019 when Buckner and Dee Ford were on the team. In 2022, the 49ers' defense got to the quarterback 44 times, in 17 games (2.59 per game). In 2019, they sacked the QB 48 times, in 16 games (3 sacks per game). It's only half of a sack more each game, but sacks only tell part of the story. The 2019 49ers' pass rush was relentless.
Hargrave should take a lot of pressure off Nick Bosa. And Arik Armstead should benefit from Hargrave's presence, as well. If that happens, and if the defense can get something from the other edge position, the 2023 pass rush could be better than it's been since 2019.
Can the 49ers win Super Bowl LVIII? They can if these five things happen.
- Marc Adams
-
Written by:Speaker. Writer. Covering the San Francisco 49ers. Host of the 49ers Camelot show.
YouTube.com/@49ersCamelot
Find the 49ers Camelot show wherever you listen to your podcasts!
