NFL Network analytics guru Cynthia Frelund has her early projections for Week 14. It's important to note that things could—and likely will—change as the week progresses and NFL teams release injury reports. However, right now, Frelund has the San Francisco 49ers rebounding from their loss this past weekend and beating the home-team Cincinnati Bengals.
"This game against Cincinnati this week is going to be crazy pivotal because both teams [are] coming off the sort of losses that I don't think either team thought were going to be losses," Frelund told KNBR's Greg Papa and John Lund on Tuesday. "Cincinnati looked terrible last week. Their O-line just got decimated. That's the most pressure that Joe Burrow has been under so far this season.
"And look, the Niners will take that same format of how [the Chargers] created pressure, where the pressures were coming from, and probably try to replicate that. And this is clearly a team that can do that."
Don't expect a blowout, though. Frelund sees this matchup as a close battle between two up and down teams. Obviously, the availability of some key players will impact her projection. San Francisco has just one healthy running back—JaMycal Hasty—on the roster.
Elijah Mitchell and Trenton Cannon are in the concussion protocol. A flare-up from his offseason knee injury is hindering Jeff Wilson Jr. Trey Sermon is on injured reserve due to an ankle injury.
"I have a one-point win for the 49ers right now," Frelund revealed. "But again, there are some injuries that are going to [factor in]. ... I have the 49ers [winning] this one 25-24. A little bit of a nail-biter here."
It's also worth noting that Frelund had the 49ers beating the Seahawks this past weekend. If the season ended today, San Francisco would own the final playoff spot in the NFC and travel to Lambeau Field to play the Green Bay Packers. The 49ers can't afford to stumble again in this final five-game stretch.
How does the analyst view San Francisco's playoff chances?
"Look, I did not anticipate the loss this past week," Frelund admitted. "I thought that they were going to win. But I think that the Niners do [make the playoffs]. I think they sneak in. It will take a little bit of health, now with the kind of improbable loss to the Seahawks, who two weeks ago were looking completely awful. But division games, they have their way of making interesting magic happen."
"... The rest of the way out, I think, the Niners, if they can keep doing what they had been doing, which is keeping Jimmy Garoppolo incredibly efficient and keeping the run game [going]—Elijah Mitchell is just absolutely awesome—that's really what it's going to come down to."
You can listen to the entire conversation with Frelund below.