Draft take-aways

Originally posted by 49erThrowback:

Wow, good discussion so far. I guess the trolls are sleeping in on a Sunday morning. (EDIT: oops, Truman showed up between the time I started writing and when I posted).

FWIW, my take:

1. I don't think Kelly had much of a hand in this draft. He may have contributed his opinion on a few players that may have influenced their place on the Niners board, but doubt it had much effect by the end of the day (with the possible exception of the Driskell pick). I doubt he knows what he has with the offense yet, and won't until he has a few games under his belt. And Baalke even less, since a lot will depend on the offense actually executing on Kelly's game plans. We're going to see lots of shuffling during the season as Kelly figures out the optimal combination of players for different situations on the field. And only then will he know who can play and who can't. By the way, same goes for the defense under O'Neil: he doesn't know what he has, either, after the Mangini experiment, which bears little resemblance to his approach.

I don't know how much influence Chip Kelly had in terms of selecting specific players, but I'm guessing part of the reason 4 of our first 5 picks are defensive players is that it will be harder to get defensive players to join us in free agency and we'll need more depth on defense on a Chip Kelly team where the play count could be high on both sides of the ball. Our first 2 picks on offense are linemen which is no surprise because our offensive line sucks.

Jeff Driskel seems like a pretty good fit who will require some coaching but has plus athleticism and pretty good fundamentals. He just broke down and lost confidence in 2014 (red flag for a QB), but if we can ease him in, he could develop into a starter or good backup. I don't know if we would've taken him without Chip Kelly.

Originally posted by English:
I think we will pick up a couple come roster cut-down time. But I think the thing is, thanks to the last 2 head coaches and some of the coordinators, I don't think we really know what we already have on the roster. I am hoping that we have finally brought together a coaching team which can develop these young players and if we have, it could be a very interesting season.

Two to three starters out of this draft. The O line transformed and a D line to brag about. It may take time to bring it all together, but we do appear to be going in the right direction and despite the schedule strength I think this will show during the season. Looking for breakout years from various players. Tartt and Smelter for starters with others not far behind. Interested to see if Carradine can finally click.

Good post English!

In a strange way it is encouraging that we don't know the just how good our existing talent is. With new and effective coaching they may blossom and we'll have some stars!

I also feel we've made some steps in the right direction BUT we have a distance to travel.

From the moment his name was called I've been hoping Tanks can be the pklayer he was in college.

The games we won last year - we still looked crappy. Like a sandlot team.

Even if we lose most of the games I feel we'll be competitive and lay a foundation for future success.

I agree only way we are going to be improved is if current players have developed and are ready to step up. If we have a decent QB season. If one or 2 young wrs step up. If Harold takes over the OLB spot we have a shot at improvement. It's a lot of ifs but it's all we got this season.

Originally posted by Karma:
My favorite weekend on the NFL calendar has come and gone. The last 12 months or so have been the hardest on me as a fan in the 25+ years I have followed this team. I have had to take a step back while the storm subsided. Well, the storm is still raging but I think the sunlight is on its way. Time will tell if this draft class is a success, but the story it tells is interesting:

1. Chip Kelly feels ok about the current wide receivers

-> Waiting until the 6th to take a WR tells me Kelly is at least intriguiged by what he has. Torrey Smith still has elite speed, Smelter has possession receiver written all over his gigantic hands, And Ellington always seemed like a guy who wasn't being used properly. I think they are really high on Rogers, considering how quiet they have otherwise been in free agency, and Patton is still around. Add a hand full of young guys with something to prove and Kelly might be able to make a silk purse out of a sow's ear.

2. There were too many needs to address them all this time

-> Guard, Tackle, CB, ILB, OLB, DE, QB... There was just no way they were going to bring in an impact player everywhere. So, they looked at the board and they decided to load up on a few. I thought Baalke did ok. Not great, not sexy, but ok. He focused on the interior of both sides of the ball and we should be much better there. The CBs have a TON of potential, but they are also bust prone.

3. The team is going to let most of or all of its free agents walk in the next few years

-> Chip Kelly looked the roster and didn't see much worth keeping in the long term. The team resigned Dial, Celek, and Ian Williams as solid rotational guys and would have spent more but no one else was worth it. Guys like Brock, Brooks, Wilhoite, TJE, Dorsey, Lemonier, Pears, etc will not be around in a year or two. Either they walk or they will be cut. The next big contracts will be for guys like Hyde and Lynch.

4. Free agency was never going to be big for us

-> We all know Baalke has never been big on free agency, but he has used it to supplement stronger rosters. This is not a strong roster. There was never a point to spending money on big names just to do it. He'll put some of that money to use when other teams trim down, but plenty of it will just go unspent for now. I'm ok with that. Josh Norman wasn't going to get us over the hump.

5. We are going to suck again

-> This roster is still pretty bad. The QB situation is a mess, we did not upgrade any of the offensive skill positions, and learning a new and rather complicated offense is going to be tough. The good news is, we will have less holes to fill in next year's draft.,

6. This team is far from done making roster moves

-> As teams all over the league received an infusion of young talent this weekend, vets will find themselves replaced or cut for salary cap reasons. Now the Niners can fill some voids. They probably won't find any superstars, but a solid ILB to compete with Hodges or a swing tackle aren't far fetched. They have the money and the roster versatility to do it.

Agree with a lot of this except for the QB position being a mess. I think Gabbert will be more than serviceable this year and might even reach the lower plateau of good, assuming he wins the job. If not than perhaps Kaepernick can get some of his mojo back and be effective. Not finding an inside LB is probably a bigger concern for me. Hodges is OK, Wilhoite is nothing special so I was really hoping they might find an upgrade there. More cornerbacks on the roster than you can shake a stick at hopefully a couple of them will stand out and take hold of the starting positions. Also not sure I agree the roster is as weak as you think. Dial, Buckner, Armstaed, Bowman, Ward, Tartt, Lynch, and Reid make for a pretty solid core on defense. If some of the corners step up like Johnson, Cromartie or one of the new guys then I think the team has the potential to be pretty competitive on defense. What happens on the offensive side will depend a lot on how the line is put together if the moves they've made this year cause an upgrade in that unit then I think it will make a lot of the other elements better. What we really need are some of these receivers to break out. Can't even remember the last time I thought the Niners had a pair of decent receivers on the field at the same time, maybe all the way back to Rice and Owens

Originally posted by 49ers81:

Agree with a lot of this except for the QB position being a mess. I think Gabbert will be more than serviceable this year and might even reach the lower plateau of good, assuming he wins the job. If not than perhaps Kaepernick can get some of his mojo back and be effective. Not finding an inside LB is probably a bigger concern for me. Hodges is OK, Wilhoite is nothing special so I was really hoping they might find an upgrade there. More cornerbacks on the roster than you can shake a stick at hopefully a couple of them will stand out and take hold of the starting positions. Also not sure I agree the roster is as weak as you think. Dial, Buckner, Armstaed, Bowman, Ward, Tartt, Lynch, and Reid make for a pretty solid core on defense. If some of the corners step up like Johnson, Cromartie or one of the new guys then I think the team has the potential to be pretty competitive on defense. What happens on the offensive side will depend a lot on how the line is put together if the moves they've made this year cause an upgrade in that unit then I think it will make a lot of the other elements better. What we really need are some of these receivers to break out. Can't even remember the last time I thought the Niners had a pair of decent receivers on the field at the same time, maybe all the way back to Rice and Owens

I think we disagree on the meaning of the word "mess". We have a ton of talent and potential. It's a mess because there are so many "ifs" and "buts". The QB situation is a mess because so much could happen between now and the season and even beyond. Gabbert could be a solid "game manager". Kaep could get traded, cut, be a backup, or even start and revitalize his career. Driskell could develop into the future starter or never see the field.

I didn't mean to say that this roster doesn't have potential. It just has more questions than answers right now. Any one of over 8 guys could start at CB. Stanley, Kilgore, Beadles, and Garnett seem poised to be starters on the OL, but RT is up in the air. Many on here think Brown is the future and that might be the case, but that isn't assured. Ultimately, we as fans need to look at this season as a time for development and transition rather than an opportunity to compete. 2018 is when I think we should look to.

I don't know about writing off this season in May seeing as how they haven't played a single game yet. I certainly don't think they are a playoff team but as long as they are competitive and the young players show some progress I'll be happy. The questions are what make the season interesting, finding out who will develop and who will step up. As to the QB situation I will again have to disagree with your assessment of it being a mess. I will concede that it is momentarily unsettled but as before I saw enough out of Gabbert last year that I think he will be OK if he wins the position. I've never been a fan of Kaepernick's but if Kelly can coach him up and get the best out of him than I can live with that. But then that is what preseason is for to sort all of these things out. Now the NY Jets on the other hand, there QB situation is a mess.

Originally posted by TheXFactor:

I'm really excited about our D-Line this year. Buckner and Blair are big upgrades. (bye bye TJE)

Shocked we didn't take a LB at all. But if Tank & Harold come around we might be in good shape there.

I think we are fine at RB, and at TE. These 2 new OT's should give us hope.

Also biggest surprise to me was us not drafting a C.

How are we supposed to address everything in one draft?

Originally posted by 49ers81:

I don't know about writing off this season in May seeing as how they haven't played a single game yet. I certainly don't think they are a playoff team but as long as they are competitive and the young players show some progress I'll be happy. The questions are what make the season interesting, finding out who will develop and who will step up. As to the QB situation I will again have to disagree with your assessment of it being a mess. I will concede that it is momentarily unsettled but as before I saw enough out of Gabbert last year that I think he will be OK if he wins the position. I've never been a fan of Kaepernick's but if Kelly can coach him up and get the best out of him than I can live with that. But then that is what preseason is for to sort all of these things out. Now the NY Jets on the other hand, there QB situation is a mess.

I think we are saying the same things. I'm not writing off the season, I'm just tempering my expectations. If we finish the season with a losing record, but some of the young guys step up and add their names to the group of "core" players, it will have been successful. For instance, I'd like for this season to show us what our secondary of the future looks like. Ideally, I would like next season to end with us knowing that we don't have any needs on the defensive line, safety, cornerback, and maybe even TE.

This draft tells me that this staff knew what they had at CB, Dline, and Oline and drafted accordingly. It also tells me that they have guys on the roster they'd like to see get PT before deciding to invest in young talent at QB, OLB, and WR. There is a lot of intrigue at these perceived positions of need. How Harold and Carradine transition with their new frames could make drafting an Edge player in the future much less of a need. Same with seeing how guys like Rodgers and Smelter play at WR this year (They are very much like draft picks anyway). The QB position is kind of the same too. Why not see how Kap and Gabbert do with a better line and better staff before moving on from either.

This year could certainly turn out to be a year that we finally get to see what we have in all these young guys this team has accumulated over the past few years instead of watching veterans hog the PT week after week. It may make this year ugly in terms of wins and losses, but at the end of the year I think the cream with have settled at the top and we'll have a much better idea of what we need to do in FA and the draft next year to make this team a contender.

I guess my biggest shock is that I was under the impression that our young CBs still looked promising. This will be a fierce battle in TC to see who emerges. The staff knows that the defense is key to getting Chips offense back on the field so a bend and not break philosophy isn't one that fits Chips offensive scheme. We need playmakers that are going to collapse the pocket in the trenches and fly around the field making plays in the back end to get Chips offense back on the field in a timely manner. I'm very excited to see our defense this year.

At the end of the day, this was another typical Baalke draft where there's a couple really solid guys up front with high character and great potential and a bunch of swing for the fences type of prospects at the back end. Baalke hits on a couple more Aaron Lynch type talents and this team will be right back on track.

Agree with others that I'm surprised we keep skipping the center position. We've needed one for a decade and Kilgore is not someone who doesn't need competition or replacement he's average

Originally posted by Big_Daddy:

Agree with others that I'm surprised we keep skipping the center position. We've needed one for a decade and Kilgore is not someone who doesn't need competition or replacement he's average

Well, to be fair wasn't Martin drafted as a Center?

Originally posted by Karma:
I think we are saying the same things. I'm not writing off the season, I'm just tempering my expectations. If we finish the season with a losing record, but some of the young guys step up and add their names to the group of "core" players, it will have been successful. For instance, I'd like for this season to show us what our secondary of the future looks like. Ideally, I would like next season to end with us knowing that we don't have any needs on the defensive line, safety, cornerback, and maybe even TE.

Yeah, I can agree with all that. I am curious to see how the TE position develops. I like Bell and am really interested in seeing Anderson. He didn't have much of a reputation as a blocker coming out of school but he certainly flashed some receiving potential during the last preseason. I would add WR to the units that I would like to see get settled this year. Really hope a couple of the young guys step up and shine.

The biggest mistake the previous staff made, and ultimately cost them their jobs, was that they didn't cry uncle and figure out what talent they had. Tiller, Brown, Thomas and Silberman didn't let anyone know what they could be. To be honest, you knew it would be a cluster when they didn't even let the OL jell together early on. The draft is telling you that they still thought they needed a huge upgrade in talent.

I was also surprised at all the CB's drafted. I hope there aren't people headed to the practice squad that will get plucked offf.

Do they think Hodges will develop? I think the spot next to Bo is still lacking.

Great post. I'll post this here as well.

The best thing to do after a draft and we grab all of our UDFA's, is to review the roster and assess strengths, weaknesses and project WHY we drafted the way we did (i.e. scheme fits). What did we learn by the first-ever Baalke/Kelly/Gamble picks?

Offensive Personnel: (2015 Snap Count)
QB: Blaine Gabbert (509); Colin Kaepernick (502), Jeff Driskel (0), Thad Lewis (0) & Dylan Thompson (0)
RB1: Carlos Hyde (292); Mike Davis (126) & Kendall Gaskins (91)
RB2: DuJuan Harris (61); Shaun Draughn (253), Kelvin Taylor (0) & Jarryd Hayne (63)
MTE: Bruce Miller (143); Busta Anderson (0) & Devon Cajuste (0)
TE: Garrett Celek (399) & Vance McDonald (468); Blake Bell (352) & Jamie Childers (0)
X WR: Torrey Smith (772); Jerome Simpson (85) & Bryce Treggs (0)
Y WR (SLOT): Bruce Ellington (143); Aaron Burbridge (0), DeAndrew White (30) & DiAndre Campbell (0)
Z WR: DeAndre Smelter (0); Quinton Patton (424), Dres Anderson (0) & Eric Rogers (0)
LOT: Joe Staley (1,011); Fahn Cooper (0)
LG: Zane Beadles (1,058); Andrew Tiller (614) & Jordan Devey (388)
C: Daniel Kilgore (267); Ian Silberman (0)
RG: Joshua Garnett (0); Erik Pears (1,011), Brandon Thomas (0) & Marcus Martin (819)
ROT: Trenton Brown (186); John Theus (0) &Colin Kelly (0)

Assessment: As a fan, each and every one of us, would be drafting differently so keep that in mind. Now, let's look at reality. When you look at the QB position, you quickly start to see some common traits: smart, process quickly, accurate, quick release and mobile. They obviously feel very good about Hyde's health and had a chance to pick up several more like-power backs but instead, picked up another RB2 in Taylor. To me, this gives you some insight. Kelly really likes quick, shifty and decisive backs; nice combo of power and strength with Hyde and shiftiness, quickness and burst with Harris & Taylor (maybe Davis too). Get ready for some "move TE's." Bruce and Cajuste are just that and how versatile are Celek, McDonald & Bell going to be for a coach who's adjusting to having a strong TE group? That's 5 TE's right there you can use for a variety of sets. And, oh-yeah, the WR's (Kelly's bread-and-butter). You've got speed on the outside at the X with Smith, shifty, versatile and catch-everything WR's at the Y (Ellington and Burbridge) and big-bodied and tall WR's on the outside (Smelter & Rogers). I can't wait to see what that group actually has. Why? B/c we have an offensive line now! Ladies and gentlemen, we may just have a dominant OL again and with some serious competition and depth. We've got two perfect-fit G's that are essential to Kelly's system, 3 vets and 2 youngsters and a slew of competition and depth with/behind them; Baalke was not going to be caught with his pants down again (good-bye Devey & Pears and Anthony Davis). The feeling I had on the offense side with Baalke and Kelly was that, "I'll get you your G's and build the OL and let's see what else we have at the skill positions this year; install your systems and let's see what we have and don't have. Coach them up. We'll attack any missing pieces next off season/draft."

Defensive Personnel:
ELEPHANT: Tank Carradine (223)
RDE: DeForest Bucker (0); Ronald Blair (0), Alex Balducci (0) & Tony Jerod Eddie (290)
NT: Quinton Dial (640); Mike Purcell (288), Darren Lake (0) & Garrison Smith (0) (Ian Williams - 659)
LDE: Arik Armstead (375); Kaleb Ramsey (0) & Demetrius Cherry (0) (Glenn Dorsey - 45)
WILL: Eli Harold (337); Marcus Rush (0), Ray-Ray Armstrong (0) & Kevin Anderson (0)
TED: Gerald Hodges (366); Michael Wilhoite (616)
MIKE: Navarro Bowman (1,098); Shayne Skov (8) & Nick Bellore (7)
SAM: Aaron Lynch (793); Ahmad Brooks (741), Corey Lemonier (271), Jason Fanaika & Lenny Jones (0)
RCB: Dontae Johnson (366); Rashard Robinson (0) & Marcus Cromartie (122)
SLOT (S/CB): Keith Reaser (79); Will Redmond (0), Prince Charles Iworah (0) & Kyle Sebetic (0)
LCB: Tramaine Brock (1,064); Kenneth Acker (807) & Chris Davis (17)
FS: Eric Reid (1,113); L.J. McCray (0) & Jered Bell (0)
SS: Jimmie Ward (730); Antoine Bethea (440)
ROBBER: Jaquiski Tartt (719)

Assessment: The feeling I had for defense was just the opposite for O'Neil. This draft, I felt Baalke's plan to O'Neil was, "OK, you're young, growing, learning and you're going to need ALL the help, depth and versatility you can get. Talent wins on defense." Scheme was a big talk too...it appears to me that we're going more press outside and getting bigger, taller (length) and more physical at CB with Johnson and Robinson but will also play quite a bit of off coverage and pattern-matching (Brock, Redmond, Acker, etc.). The drafting of Redmond confirmed that Ward will be moved back to SS (great move BTW) to partner with Reid, Tartt remains the robber (our 3rd ILB), and Redmond and Reaser will compete at Ward's old slot CB role which requires a very unique skill set (electric COD, quickness and speed, ability to play with your back to the QB, etc.) to match up with all the excellent slot WR's we face every year. Pass rush? Aside from having the tallest DL in history, both AA and Buckner are incredibly disruptive and no doubt, will occupy 4 OL by themselves often while still providing a pass rush. But b/c of our offensive scheme, we're going to need rotation as well and Baalke got just that...pushing TJE right off the roster and allowing Dorsey & Williams more time to heal. At NT, we have Dial, an ascending Purcell and now the 329 pound Lake while Williams recovers. The bottom line is that, the more disruptive and refreshed this front will be, the more effective the rest of the pass rush will be with Lynch/Brooks and Harold/Carradine. Harold weighed UP and Carradine weighed DOWN. Now let's see what they have next to Buckner! The more effective this front 7 is, the more exotic and aggressive the back end can play.

Special Teams:
LS: Kyle Nelson (140)
PK: Phil Dawson (55); Corey Acosta (0) & John Lunsford (0)
P: Bradley Pinion (197)

PR/KOR: Bruce Ellington, Quinton Patton & Jarryd Hayne

Overall Assessment: Overall, no doubt the goal and outcome was to rebuild the lines in year 1 or 2 of this rebuild (depending on your perspective) and use that as a barometer to see what we have at the skill positions for next year. We added more depth and specific-skill position players for our systems from the move-TEs, to the slot WR and CB to the 2-down NT and like-skilled QB's.

The average number of starters from every draft class is 2.3 so a GM reaches for 3. We got 2 right out of the gate with DeForrest Buckner and Joshua Garnett. These are your "impact players."

In addition to them, remember, we're expected to run nickel/dime 60-70% of the time (common in the NFL now) with heavy DL rotations. Therefore, other defenders who could play "starter" roles for us include Ronald Blair, Demetrius Cherry & Alex Balducci (DE rotation with AA & Buckner), Rashard Robinson over Dontae Johnson or he beats out Tramaine Brock on the other side and we go "longer" and Will Redmond (if healthy) or Prince Charles Iworah (ST/returner/gunner) beat out Keith Reaser at the slot CB spot and then on offense, Kelvin Taylor beats out DuJuan Harris as the RB2, Devon Cajuste beats out Bruce Miller as the move-TE and Aaron Burbridge beats out Bruce Ellington at the YWR. Next year, I think more fans will be happy as you can expect more targets for the flashy "skill positions."

This perspective is very much in line with the immediate-needs, critical depth with high upside, building properly and key role-starter perspectives on the grades and evaluations below:

Doug Farrar of Sports Illustrated
Grade: A-
49ers GM Trent Baalke must have been grinning ear-to-ear when the Chargers reached on Joey Bosa at No. 3, leaving DeForest Buckner on the board. Buckner is the best defensive lineman in this class, and his versatility will add a ton to San Francisco's defense. And, the trade back into the first round to nab Stanford guard Josh Garnett will pay great dividends as long as Garnett can get the knack of Chip Kelly's preference for quicker, zone-based guards. Garnett is more of an agile mauler. Third-round cornerback Will Redmond would have gone higher in this draft based on pure talent, but injuries got in the way. LSU cornerback Rashard Robinson doesn't have a ton of starts either, but Baalke has never been shy about betting on upside. Louisiana Tech QB Jeff Driskel looked horrid at Florida, but he impressed after his transfer to Louisiana Tech. Florida running back Kelvin Taylor, the son of Fred Taylor, has the quickest feet of any back in this class. Watch out also for seventh-round cornerback Prince Charles Iworah, who looked like a shutdown guy against lesser competition. The 49ers have a nice combination of potential and first-day starters here.

Chad Reuter of NFL.com
Grade: B+
Buckner is an excellent pick in the top seven as the impact defensive end they've missed since Justin Smith has left. Garnett is my favorite offensive line prospect in this draft, and the 49ers need to replace Alex Boone. But giving up two picks in the deepest draft in history for a guard is a tough sell for me. Redmond is coming off an injury, but teams knew he would come off the board in the third round so that was no surprise. He should work his way into a nickel or starting role when back on the field. In Round 4, Robinson's athleticism was worth the gamble. They got great value in the Blair pick. He should be a starter as a five-technique despite a poor combine workout. Theus and Cooper are swing tackle candidates who should only get better with time.

Steve Palazzolo of Pro Football Focus
Grade: B+
Day 1: One of the best picks in the draft, the 49ers took the No. 2 player on the PFF draft board in Buckner, a he happens to be a perfect fit for their 3-4 scheme. He's a disruptive presence against the run, grading at +29.8 last season (eighth in the class), while leading the nation with a +43.8 pass-rush grade. Buckner rarely came off the field for Oregon, playing more snaps than any interior defensive lineman in the nation and he was able to maintain his production throughout the season. San Francisco then traded back into the first round to secure the top run-blocking guard in the draft in Garnett. He is excellent on the move and despite some question marks about his pass protection, he should be a good fit in Chip Kelly's scheme.
Day 2: Redmond is a solid zone defender who is quick to read and break on the ball, although that aggressiveness can get him into trouble at times. His +1.6 coverage grade ranked No. 56 in the class.
Day 3: Robinson didn't play in 2015, but his length and speed made him a coveted mid-round option. Blair's +42.7 overall grade ranked 13th in the draft class, as he can make plays against the run and as a pass rusher though he has to get stronger at the point of attack in the run game. Driskel took a huge step forward this year for Louisiana Tech as his +22.0 passing grade ranked 11th in the class and his athleticism is a good fit for Chip Kelly's system. His former teammate at Florida, Kelvin Taylor, made the most of subpar blocking at Florida to finish with the No. 7 run grade in the class at +19.4. Burbridge doesn't separate well, but he can make contested catches and he caught 64.0 percent of his deep targets, fourth-best in the class.

- See more at: http://www.49erswebzone.com/news/93883-draft-grades-san-francisco-49ers-2016/#sthash.DHjnSNbh.dpuf


BTW: How good does that Arik Armstead trade-back value look now? AA to partner with Buckner, TE Blake Bell and now, RDE Ronald Blair just to move back a couple spots.

Um, Kelly had a lot of influence in this draft...Baalke does what he ALWAYS does with his Head Coaches and goes and gets him players that fit his scheme, from Buckner to Garnett to Briskel to even DE Alex Balducci (we have the entire Oregon DL). LOL. Also, players like WR Aaron Burbridge and the move-TE in Devon Cajuste are very much Kelly-fits.

This was certainly a Baalke/Kelly/Gamble draft to a tee.