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Top Wide Receiver Short List - 4/22/13

For every junior Andre Johnson there is a
With their Wonderlic scores, they are Jon Baldwin (14), Darrius Heyward-Bey (14), Devin Thomas (23), Malcolm Kelly (22), James Hardy (14), Dwayne Jarrett (14), Chad Jackson (15), Troy Williamson (21), Reggie Williams (17) and Charles Rogers (10).
[ Edited by natrone06 on Apr 23, 2013 at 7:46 PM ]
  • Jd925
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Originally posted by natrone06:
For every junior Andre Johnson there is a
With their Wonderlic scores, they are Jon Baldwin (14), Darrius Heyward-Bey (14), Devin Thomas (23), Malcolm Kelly (22), James Hardy (14), Dwayne Jarrett (14), Chad Jackson (15), Troy Williamson (21), Reggie Williams (17) and Charles Rogers (10).
Good point. I'll take that into consideration.
FYI I'm not making a blanket statement about Juniors, but just made a 15% adjustment on the Active stats measure to compensate for what I expect to be lower numbers in earlier years which I think is especially applicable if there is an upwards trajectory.

Baldwin - still early
Bey - still early, but waaaay overrated on measurables and would've ranked low on very low production numbers Fresh thru Junior
Thomas - injury concerns - It was later revealed in the New York Daily News that same day he retired at such a young age to avoid lifelong injuries such as brain damage. He also said he would prefer to settle down with his fiancée Porshia and their son Devin Jr
Kelly - injury
Hardy - injury/chronic hamstring
Dwayne Jarrett - bust... too slow? maybe one of those that the production bias does not work on?
Chad Jackson - Belichick/Pats traded up to get him (from 52 to 36).. injury problem... average to decent production for Junior (900yds), but would be low on list..
Troy Williamson - way overrated on measurables like DHB... 400yds Fresh, 400yds Soph, 800yds Junior.. average production and would be very low on list
Reggie Williams - started a few years, had some injuries and some off field issues. Did break Jimmy Smith's single season TD record with 10 in '07. Generally a disappointment.
Charles Rogers - great stats & measurables.. would have been on list regardless of positive adjustment. bad work ethic. per wiki: "After his release, Rogers worked out for the Miami Dolphins, New England Patriots and Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2006. However, all of them opted not to sign him due to 40-yard dash times of around 4.8 seconds; at his peak, he consistently recorded times of 4.4 seconds"
[ Edited by Jd925 on Apr 23, 2013 at 8:31 PM ]
  • buck
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Originally posted by Jd925:
Originally posted by krizay:
So you adjusted your own weighting system cause you didnt like the results. Then you gave juniors positive adjustments?

Yup that's what I did. But as I explained I did not want the results to deviate too much from the mock rankings.

If you adjusted your statistics to avoid too much deviation from the mock rankings, wouldn't that adjustment itself be a bias in favor of the mock rankings.

Originally posted by Jd925:

Juniors? Yes absolutely. From experience I think this is good. I remember Andre Johnson coming off a good Junior season from Florida. I didn't have him as highly ranked just purely on productivity, but I saw the trajectory and understood there was potential. This is especially true at the WR position. Johnson had 600+ yds as a Soph and 1000+ yds as a Junior. As a rookie in '03 he had 900+ yds and made the Probowl the next year with over 1000 yds.. 5 yrs later he had back to back 1500 yd seasons. Receivers take time to mature. Look at stats in the NFL ..look at stats in college.. usually there is a trajectory.. look at Deandre Hopkins .. look at Stedman Bailey this year. RBs are different.. they crank out 1000+ yds immediately and just maintain the numbers. Let me know if your experience is different.

I am not sure this makes sense. If you want to add points for trajectory why only add points for juniors. Almost every wide receiver being drafted has a trajectory, and it makes sense to measure and weight their trajectories over their college years. For example, a player who increased their production steadily over their college careers would receive additional points and a player who improved erratically might receive less points.

By adding points for juniors only, it seems that you are adding points based upon something that you believe might happen in the future, in the NFL. Again, it seems, that your beliefs are skewing the results.

edit: I missed the post where you said "just made a 15% adjustment on the Active stats measure to compensate for what I expect to be lower numbers in earlier years which I think is especially applicable if there is an upwards trajectory."

Not sure, I understand this. Does this mean you add 15% to their score to compensate for low college production in their freshman and sophomore years.


If I understand this point correctly, you added 15% to Patterson's score because he is a junior. Yet, he is the only wide receiver in this draft that in fact has no measurable trajectory over his college career. He only played one year at a four-year school.

If I remember correctly, you used yards per game and touchdowns to measure productivity.

There is a metric for measuring the productivity of wide receivers that you might consider using. This metric, the wide receiver production ratio, evaluates the receivers production as a % of the teams passing yards and the team's passing touchdowns. The benchmark sought would be around 30% of both receiving yards and touchdowns. The higher %, the better.
[ Edited by buck on Apr 23, 2013 at 9:45 PM ]
Originally posted by natrone06:
For every junior Andre Johnson there is a
With their Wonderlic scores, they are Jon Baldwin (14), Darrius Heyward-Bey (14), Devin Thomas (23), Malcolm Kelly (22), James Hardy (14), Dwayne Jarrett (14), Chad Jackson (15), Troy Williamson (21), Reggie Williams (17) and Charles Rogers (10).

Funny y'all bring up wonderlic test on NFL live tha other day it was leaked T.Austin WR score was a 7 good thing we wont get him ....
  • buck
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Originally posted by tatdwolf49:
Originally posted by natrone06:
For every junior Andre Johnson there is a
With their Wonderlic scores, they are Jon Baldwin (14), Darrius Heyward-Bey (14), Devin Thomas (23), Malcolm Kelly (22), James Hardy (14), Dwayne Jarrett (14), Chad Jackson (15), Troy Williamson (21), Reggie Williams (17) and Charles Rogers (10).

Funny y'all bring up wonderlic test on NFL live tha other day it was leaked T.Austin WR score was a 7 good thing we wont get him ....


Is there any relationship between Wonderlic scores and playing wide receiver?

I am not being sarcastic, I just do not know. I guess the play book is pretty thick, maybe it does.
Originally posted by buck:
Originally posted by tatdwolf49:
Originally posted by natrone06:
For every junior Andre Johnson there is a
With their Wonderlic scores, they are Jon Baldwin (14), Darrius Heyward-Bey (14), Devin Thomas (23), Malcolm Kelly (22), James Hardy (14), Dwayne Jarrett (14), Chad Jackson (15), Troy Williamson (21), Reggie Williams (17) and Charles Rogers (10).

Funny y'all bring up wonderlic test on NFL live tha other day it was leaked T.Austin WR score was a 7 good thing we wont get him ....


Is there any relationship between Wonderlic scores and playing wide receiver?

I am not being sarcastic, I just do not know. I guess the play book is pretty thick, maybe it does.
Well you do need to be pretty smart to remember plays
Originally posted by buck:
Originally posted by tatdwolf49:
Originally posted by natrone06:
For every junior Andre Johnson there is a
With their Wonderlic scores, they are Jon Baldwin (14), Darrius Heyward-Bey (14), Devin Thomas (23), Malcolm Kelly (22), James Hardy (14), Dwayne Jarrett (14), Chad Jackson (15), Troy Williamson (21), Reggie Williams (17) and Charles Rogers (10).

Funny y'all bring up wonderlic test on NFL live tha other day it was leaked T.Austin WR score was a 7 good thing we wont get him ....


Is there any relationship between Wonderlic scores and playing wide receiver?

I am not being sarcastic, I just do not know. I guess the play book is pretty thick, maybe it does.

I don't know don't care just thought it was a little funny they talked about wonderlic test N I heard that on NFL live other day .. besides u have seen me post N know I'm against tha midget anyways lol
[ Edited by tatdwolf49 on Apr 23, 2013 at 9:59 PM ]