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#7 overall pick the bust pick of top 10 picks?

I was watching ESPN the other day and they were doing greatest top 10 steals of all time. Then Kiper says "the #7 overall pick is the bust pick of top 10 picks". Then he proceeds to name Champ Bailey the best #7 overall pick.

So it got me thinking and I went and started to look it up. Theses are the #7 overall picks since 1980 or 31 years. By my count, thats only 5 players actually worth the #7 pick over a 31 year span. I thought 7 was supposed to be lucky?

Well history certainly isnt on our side, only 16% of the time does a #7 pick warrant the selection.

2010 Joe Haden
2009 Darrius Heyward-Bey
2008 Sedrick Ellis
2007 Adrian Peterson
2006 Michael Huff
2005 Troy Williamson
2004 Roy Williams
2003 Byron Leftwich
2002 Bryant McKinnie
2001 Andre Carter
2000 Thomas Jones
1999 Champ Bailey
1998 Kyle Turley
1997 Ike Hilliard
1996 Terry Glenn
1995 Mike Mamula
1994 Bryant Young
1993 Curtis Conway
1992 Troy Vincent
1991 Charles McRae
1990 Andre Ware
1989 Tim Worley
1988 Sterling Sharpe
1987 Reggie Rogers
1986 Brian Jozwiak
1985 Ken Ruettgers
1984 Ricky Hunley
1983 Todd Blackledge
1982 Darrin Nelson
1981 Hugh Green
1980 Junior Miller
whats so bad about andre carter, michael huff, joe haden or sedrick ellis?
Originally posted by CoachingMatters:
I was watching ESPN the other day and they were doing greatest top 10 steals of all time. Then Kiper says "the #7 overall pick is the bust pick of top 10 picks". Then he proceeds to name Champ Bailey the best #7 overall pick.

So it got me thinking and I went and started to look it up. Theses are the #7 overall picks since 1980 or 31 years. By my count, thats only 5 players actually worth the #7 pick over a 31 year span. I thought 7 was supposed to be lucky?

Well history certainly isnt on our side, only 16% of the time does a #7 pick warrant the selection.

2010 Joe Haden
2009 Darrius Heyward-Bey
2008 Sedrick Ellis
2007 Adrian Peterson
2006 Michael Huff
2005 Troy Williamson
2004 Roy Williams
2003 Byron Leftwich
2002 Bryant McKinnie
2001 Andre Carter
2000 Thomas Jones
1999 Champ Bailey
1998 Kyle Turley
1997 Ike Hilliard
1996 Terry Glenn
1995 Mike Mamula
1994 Bryant Young
1993 Curtis Conway
1992 Troy Vincent
1991 Charles McRae
1990 Andre Ware
1989 Tim Worley
1988 Sterling Sharpe
1987 Reggie Rogers
1986 Brian Jozwiak
1985 Ken Ruettgers
1984 Ricky Hunley
1983 Todd Blackledge
1982 Darrin Nelson
1981 Hugh Green
1980 Junior Miller

Sedrick Ellis is a good D-lineman for the saints, Joe Haden had a great rookie year for the browns, Roy Williams put up numerous good years on a bad team in detroit, Byron Leftwich had some good seasons including playoff trips for the Jags, Bryant Mickinnie is a pro bowl left tackle for the Vikings, Thomas Jones is still playing and had numerous 1000 yard rushing seasons, and Ike Hilliard, Terry Glenn and Curtis Conway all had some productive years as recievers. Most of these picks would not be considered busts.
Originally posted by communist:
whats so bad about andre carter, michael huff, joe haden or sedrick ellis?

Also.... Curtis Conway had 8200 yards and 55 tds, Thomas Jones has had over 10,000 and 71 tds...
I believe Sedrick Ellis has played well for the Saints. Also way too early to put last year's #7 Joe Haden in that list
Originally posted by kronik:
I believe Sedrick Ellis has played well for the Saints. Also way too early to put last year's #7 Joe Haden in that list

Yeah I dont even come close to understanding how a rookie who had 5 picks is a bust?
Right you lost me after kiper said! lol
  • RKab
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Kyle Turley was an All-Pro twice to jump into the fray. Bryant McKinnie has been a starting tackle for almost a decade and went to a pro bowl. Terry Glenn was a pro bowler and rookie of the year. Roy Williams was above average on a historically bad team.

Mike Mamula - while often derided because of course he played in Philly had 8+ sacks twice - he never lived up to the hype but certainly wasn't Ryan Leaf of Tony Mandarich.

I'd say Heyward-Bey could be a bust - Williamson is a bust. Tim Worley was a bust. Andre Ware of course. Anything pre-sterling sharpe is before my time.

But all things considered you aren't going to an elite level player like Bailey or Sharpe or Vincent or Petersen every year at the #7 pick.

While of course we want to shoot for the moon, I'd be happy to just hit the average here which looks like a guy who starts for 6 - 8 years.



Originally posted by CoachingMatters:
I was watching ESPN the other day and they were doing greatest top 10 steals of all time. Then Kiper says "the #7 overall pick is the bust pick of top 10 picks". Then he proceeds to name Champ Bailey the best #7 overall pick.

So it got me thinking and I went and started to look it up. Theses are the #7 overall picks since 1980 or 31 years. By my count, thats only 5 players actually worth the #7 pick over a 31 year span. I thought 7 was supposed to be lucky?

Well history certainly isnt on our side, only 16% of the time does a #7 pick warrant the selection.

2010 Joe Haden
2009 Darrius Heyward-Bey
2008 Sedrick Ellis
2007 Adrian Peterson
2006 Michael Huff
2005 Troy Williamson
2004 Roy Williams
2003 Byron Leftwich
2002 Bryant McKinnie
2001 Andre Carter
2000 Thomas Jones
1999 Champ Bailey
1998 Kyle Turley
1997 Ike Hilliard
1996 Terry Glenn
1995 Mike Mamula
1994 Bryant Young
1993 Curtis Conway
1992 Troy Vincent
1991 Charles McRae
1990 Andre Ware
1989 Tim Worley
1988 Sterling Sharpe
1987 Reggie Rogers
1986 Brian Jozwiak
1985 Ken Ruettgers
1984 Ricky Hunley
1983 Todd Blackledge
1982 Darrin Nelson
1981 Hugh Green
1980 Junior Miller
  • 4ML
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  • Posts: 28,884
Originally posted by communist:
whats so bad about andre carter, michael huff, joe haden or sedrick ellis?

Would you draft Andre Carter and Michael Huff in top 10 if you could do the re-draft?

Too early to say anythin' about Haden and Ellis has played well.
Can't you do the same thing with every draft slot in the entire top ten?
Originally posted by 49ersMyLife:
Originally posted by communist:
whats so bad about andre carter, michael huff, joe haden or sedrick ellis?

Would you draft Andre Carter and Michael Huff in top 10 if you could do the re-draft?

Too early to say anythin' about Haden and Ellis has played well.
we are talking about busts...players like vernon gholston. drafting huff or carter at 7th ovr might be a reach but i would not consider them as a bust at all.
there is always the question who else was considered to be drafted at 7th ovr in the same year and how he panned out ovr.

as for now, ellis and haden did enough to be considered as good drafts...

[ Edited by communist on Mar 13, 2011 at 21:30:25 ]
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Originally posted by communist:
Originally posted by 49ersMyLife:
Originally posted by communist:
whats so bad about andre carter, michael huff, joe haden or sedrick ellis?

Would you draft Andre Carter and Michael Huff in top 10 if you could do the re-draft?

Too early to say anythin' about Haden and Ellis has played well.
we are talking about busts...players like vernon gholston. drafting huff or carter at 7th ovr might be a reach but i would not consider them as a bust at all.
there is always the question who else was considered to be drafted at 7th ovr in the same year and how he panned out ovr.

as for now, ellis and haden did enough to be considered as good drafts...

"only 16% of the time does a #7 pick warrant the selection." - I don't think coachingmatters is saying those guys are bust. He is implying, very few times a team picking at 7 has gotten the true value of it's draft pick.

Though, I think it means nothing when it comes to 49ers drafting at 7. Every year is different, every draft class is different, and this is the first draft class I can remember in a long time where there are 10-11 players who could be top 5 picks.
I would like to point out that a hit rate of 16% is only a significant statistic when it is compared against hit rates of other picks in the vicinity of the 7th overall choice.

For example, if 6th overall choice only pans out 3% of the time, picking 7th overall all of a sudden becomes a little more reassuring.

Edit: Nice analysis though

-9fA

[ Edited by 9erfanAUS on Mar 13, 2011 at 22:06:56 ]
Originally posted by 9erfanAUS:
I would like to point out that a hit rate of 16% is only a significant statistic when it is compared against hit rates of other picks in the vicinity of the 7th overall choice.

For example, if 6th overall choice only pans out 3% of the time, picking 7th overall all of a sudden becomes a little more reassuring.

Edit: Nice analysis though

-9fA

With the 6th choice didnt we take V.D?
While some of the players may not have been elite, you have to also consider the coaches they played for and how they were used. It can't be emphasized enough how being with the right system helps.