Originally posted by Ninerjohn:Originally posted by krizay:Originally posted by MadDog49er:Originally posted by SWAGG-ER:Originally posted by MadDog49er:Originally posted by Ninerjohn:Originally posted by 49ersMyLife:
This is much better than you player rankings.
Not by much. There are 3 players in a row in the 20s of this draft that I highly doubt are drafted in round 1 at all. Watkins, Austin, and Leshoure are 2nd rounders ( or even 3rd in Austin's case).
Marcel Dareus dropping to 12 isnt going to happen and Gabbert is going in round 1.
Now.. as far as the Niners picks go... I would be ok with the draft although taking a kicker and a FB in round 4 isnt too thrilling.
Plus, Watkins is going to turn 27 years of age in the middle of his rookie season. That is a really hard sell for a first round pick, especially at a position like guard. Austin is also a real crazy reach for a first rounder due to his off the field issue. LeShoure is the most likely to be a first rounder, but will probably be a second rounder, as well.
Gabbert has way too much upside to fall outside the top ten picks. The only way this could happen is if all the QB starved teams in the top ten were able to secure a free agent QB, or one through a trade. The Cards, Niners, Titans, and Skins will all need new QB's to build their franchise around, and are not going to pin their franchise hopes on second or third day prospects like Ricky Stanzi or Pat Devlin. If these QB's work out well, there will be a run on them earlier rather than later in the draft. The most likely QB prospect to fall is Mallett, not Gabbert.
Age has nothing to do w/ anything at the OFFENSIVE GUARD position! Guys like Bruce Mathews and Ray Brown played till they were like 40. OG's player longer than any position in football. Besides, you can look at it from the perspective that he has less wear and tear since started playing football late.
Rahim Morris loves to mold troubled kids into men. Marvin Austin is a 1st round talent. Period.
Gabbert is not a 1st round talent. Period. Nothing in his game justifies that. 32 teams could need a qb and i'd still say the same thing. For someone who played in a spread system he put up crap numbers. He's inaccurate. I challenge anyone to find me one single throw that makes you say WOW. Bubble screens and 2 yard slants make a first rounder not. Yes i know he has a cannon, but im gonna be real with it and say Kyle Boller had a cannon too. Their problems? They can throw it a million miles, but it ain't gonna be accurate. So what's that get ya? It gets ya nowhere.
Pat Devlin is a 6th round pick at best. Dude sucks. If Flacco never came out of Delaware, nobody would give a crap about Pat Devlin. Oh and Flacco sucks and they're not even similar qb's.
We tend to agree on our view of Devlin as a pro quarterback, but ultimately, it is not our own personal view on how he will perform in the NFL. It is the viewpoint of scouts, GM's coaches, and more. So, even if you do not personally like a prospect, you have to look at the prospect through the eyes of those who make the selection.
For example, a few years ago, I believed that Tyson Jackson was drastically overrated as a prospect, and marked him as a late first rounder until the last weeks before the draft (I had him going 9th overall in my last week's projection) , even though virtually every scout, coach, GM appeared to be in love with him. In the end, he was the third overall pick, and he has disappointed as I expected. However, it wasn't my call, it was the Chiefs. A bitter pill to swallow for me, and a lesson learned.
So, while I understand and respect your opinion that Gabbert is way overrated as a pro prospect (even though I disagree), every scouting service out there will disagree with your opinion that he is outside the first round. So, my advice is to not go with your heart in your projections, but how coaches, scouts, GM's will ultimately select. Gabbert has all the tools and physical attributes the scouts love. He will have to turn in a disasterous workout, or rob a bank to fall out of the first. Just way too much upside in the minds of those running NFL organizations.
This also goes for a prospect like Watkins, who had a strong Senior Bowl week. Teams do not draft guards very often in the first round (usually there is one late first rounder every year), and when teams factor in his age, at 27, this is a major problem. In the end, a team is losing about 3-4 years of time in selecting someone of this age. It simply runs against the grain of how NFL teams draft. Is it possible? Sure. It is likely? No, it is highly unlikely.
One final note: I wanted to research the length of NFL careers by position. Guards do not have the logest careers. This falls to kickers and punter, and QB's. Guards are not listed in the top group.
The shortest careers among NFL players tends to be those who hit and get hit the most during games and practice. Running backs have the shortest average careers of just 2.57 years. Wide receivers have average careers of 2.81 years. The average career for cornerbacks is 2.94 years.
The longest careers among NFL players tends to be those who are hit the least. Kickers and punters have the longest careers, averaging 4.87 years. Quarterbacks are next with an average career of 4.44 years
[url=null]null[/url] Longest and Shortest NFL careers by position
I didn't read the whole article, just what you posted, but those numbers are skewed. Atleast on paper. Teams carry a slew of WR's and CB's alot of which aren't really NFL receivers. They are just there because of demand. Thus the back end continues to get "upgraded" year after year. Thus more CB's and WR's come and go.
Same can be said for RB's to a lesser extent. Alot of returners are listed as RB's thus teams keeping 4ish RB's then they too get upgraded become expendable. Not too mention the back end here getting upgraded fairly often too.
In contrast teams only carry 1 kicker and punter (usually).
QB's last long usually due to experience.
I for one believe the guard position is one that can be played at a high level well into your 30's. While some teams (the rebuilding teams) may look at his age as a problem. I don't think all 32 teams will. Thus he will be drafted relatively close to where his skill set suggests. I know absolutely nothing about the guy. Just don't think his age will cost him.
I dont see how you can say his age wont cost him when he will be 6-7 years older than most rookies coming out. I think it absolutley will drop him down.
if his position was one in which speed was key then I would agree. Bot not an OG.