With every loss this season, the Cleveland Browns get a step closer to locking up the top overall selection in the 2017 NFL Draft. It is hard to believe that the San Francisco 49ers have lost 10 consecutive games – a franchise record – and still may not get the top overall pick. The 49ers currently sit at 1-10 while the Browns sit at 0-12. Meanwhile, the Chicago Bears (2-9) are sitting at the number four spot thanks to a stronger strength of schedule than the Jacksonville Jaguars (2-9).
According to ESPN's Football Power Index, Sunday's game between the 49ers and Bears will have a major impact on the chances of obtaining the number two overall selection in the draft. A 49ers loss will increase their chance of getting a top two selection to 79 percent versus 6 percent for the Bears. A Bears loss will increase their chance of getting a top two selection to 49 percent versus 30 percent for the 49ers.
Currently, Chicago has a weaker strength of schedule than San Francisco, which is the determining factor should any ties with records occur.
The Bears are currently 2.5-point favorites in Sunday's matchup with the visiting 49ers. That may fluctuate as the game nears. According to ESPN, Chicago has a 57 percent chance of beating San Francisco.
Below is the current draft order, based on playoff seeding (21-32), record, and strength of schedule (SOS), for all 32 first-round spots if the season ended today. Of course, the order of playoff teams would eventually be determined by the completed playoff picture.
|2||San Francisco 49ers||1-10||.573|
|5||New York Jets||3-8||.504|
|7||Tennessee Titans (from Rams)||4-7||.488|
|11||Green Bay Packers||5-6||.529|
|12||Cleveland Browns (from Eagles)||5-6||.533|
|13||New Orleans Saints||5-6||.550|
|14||San Diego Chargers||5-6||.559|
|17||Philadelphia Eagles (from Vikings)||6-5||.486|
|18||Tampa Bay Buccaneers||6-5||.491|
|23||New York Giants||8-3||--|
|24||Kansas City Chiefs||8-3||--|
|31||New England Patriots||9-2||--|
* 21-32 based on projected playoff seeding, not record or strength of schedule
** Trades show the record of the origin team