49ers select Kaelon Black, RB, Indiana at no. 90

Originally posted by Chance:
This thread is full of people saying we could have drafted him much later. You even mentioned that he represented poor value, yet did not answer when asked which criteria you used to determine said value.

I think Black stands as good, if not a better chance in being a productive player beyond what is typical of a pick at 90. There's all sorts of factors that determine his usage. CMC could go down and open the door of opportunity just as easily as James could step up and prove to be a great number 2 back. You want me to predict the future, but all I'm predicting is that he will prove to be a talent worthy of pick 90 whether he has 200 carries or 30.

I'd rather revisit this argument after year three, but will be happy to bump this after this year and take an honest look at what Black did with his opportunities and what that portends for our future.

The prospect of CMC going down spells ruin for this offense. We've seen it in the past. You may argue that picking any RB at 90 is a misuse and of draft assets, but I don't believe it is given CMC's age and tread. We are in win-now mode and a rookie who could come in and do the little things well to keep the offense running, is well worth the investment. Hell, even if the player (be it James or Black) extends CMC's career by lightening the load, that in and of itself is worth an end of round three and round five investment from the team to back up the position.

The answer to the question you think I didn't answer is built into the argument. We drafted a guy who will be a 25 year old rookie at the least valued position across the league (and did not receive a combine invite) who's best case scenario for the team is to spell our starter in the short term and maybe be a starter for the 2nd half of his rookie deal.

Acknowledging that we don't know his value with certainty, all indicators are he could have been had much later in the draft (least valued position, 25 years old, no combine invite… among other things). If another team wanted to reach for him, and we ultimately missed out, there are alternative options that would suffice both in the draft or via trade.

Value in the draft is important. Pretending it's not because each player's value isn't clearly defined is a mistake. One that our team has made many times already. I hope he's a good player, just like every other 49ers fan. He better be considering our penchant for robbing ourselves of value and setting our draft picks on fire. At least get the minimal return on the investment.

I guess I have issue assuming other teams didn't value Black as the 49ers did. The lack of a combine invite is meaningless. That would have more impact on consensus drafts, but not professional scouting departments. The team had him as RB2 in the draft, which is certainly worthy of a late 3, even in a weak draft. Perhaps you feel that we are not evaluating guys correctly. Time will tell.

His age is certainly a factor that will lower him on some team's boards. I agree. But there's enough teams who would likely value him highly despite his age, given his pro readiness and low tread. Also, this era is the end of the Covid era, lots of guys are older rookies. Honestly, him being right in the middle of his athletic prime being his biggest negative on value, is okay by me.

Originally posted by SmokeyJoe:

Originally posted by Chance:
This thread is full of people saying we could have drafted him much later. You even mentioned that he represented poor value, yet did not answer when asked which criteria you used to determine said value.

I think Black stands as good, if not a better chance in being a productive player beyond what is typical of a pick at 90. There's all sorts of factors that determine his usage. CMC could go down and open the door of opportunity just as easily as James could step up and prove to be a great number 2 back. You want me to predict the future, but all I'm predicting is that he will prove to be a talent worthy of pick 90 whether he has 200 carries or 30.

I'd rather revisit this argument after year three, but will be happy to bump this after this year and take an honest look at what Black did with his opportunities and what that portends for our future.

The prospect of CMC going down spells ruin for this offense. We've seen it in the past. You may argue that picking any RB at 90 is a misuse and of draft assets, but I don't believe it is given CMC's age and tread. We are in win-now mode and a rookie who could come in and do the little things well to keep the offense running, is well worth the investment. Hell, even if the player (be it James or Black) extends CMC's career by lightening the load, that in and of itself is worth an end of round three and round five investment from the team to back up the position.

The answer to the question you think I didn't answer is built into the argument. We drafted a guy who will be a 25 year old rookie at the least valued position across the league (and did not receive a combine invite) who's best case scenario for the team is to spell our starter in the short term and maybe be a starter for the 2nd half of his rookie deal.

Acknowledging that we don't know his value with certainty, all indicators are he could have been had much later in the draft (least valued position, 25 years old, no combine invite… among other things). If another team wanted to reach for him, and we ultimately missed out, there are alternative options that would suffice both in the draft or via trade.

Value in the draft is important. Pretending it's not because each player's value isn't clearly defined is a mistake. One that our team has made many times already. I hope he's a good player, just like every other 49ers fan. He better be considering our penchant for robbing ourselves of value and setting our draft picks on fire. At least get the minimal return on the investment.

Value in a draft is subjective, and varies from team to team. Media consensus is fun entertainment, and I am sure most teams look at it to some degree, but they are nowhere near the last word on what a players value is from team to team. They drafted players that they are thinking can contribute right away, that's the main reason to draft the older players.

Originally posted by Memphis9er:
Value in a draft is subjective, and varies from team to team. Media consensus is fun entertainment, and I am sure most teams look at it to some degree, but they are nowhere near the last word on what a players value is from team to team. They drafted players that they are thinking can contribute right away, that's the main reason to draft the older players.

There is no disagreement that value is subjective and not clearly defined. But look at the evidence available to you.

Do you disagree that teams across the league generally view the RB position as one of the most replaceable positions on the field? That it's one of the more injury prone positions, with shorter lifespans in comparison to others? That teams are reluctant to invest heavily in this position in both draft capital and dollars, especially with aging players with some exception?

Everybody paying attention has seen this trend accelerate over many years, no?

Originally posted by Memphis9er:
Value in a draft is subjective, and varies from team to team. Media consensus is fun entertainment, and I am sure most teams look at it to some degree, but they are nowhere near the last word on what a players value is from team to team. They drafted players that they are thinking can contribute right away, that's the main reason to draft the older players.

Agree 💯%. To put it in another way, the value of a basketball in my hands is about a buck and some change. The value of a Basketball in Steph curry's hands is in the millions. It depends on the skill, and in this case the skill of the coach.

Originally posted by SmokeyJoe:
Acknowledging that we don't know his value with certainty, all indicators are he could have been had much later in the draft (least valued position, 25 years old, no combine invite… among other things).

Wrong. Both KS and JL said after the draft that they were expecting Black to go in the 4rd round, very probably early in it. And this was corroborated by, at least, a couple of after-draft reports.
So they took him very late in the 3rd because the 49ers scouting team had him very highly rated (specifically they have said they had him as the RB2 in this draft class) and they didn't want to risk not getting him.

Originally posted by SmokeyJoe:
If another team wanted to reach for him, and we ultimately missed out, there are alternative options that would suffice both in the draft or via trade.

"alternative options that would suffice"?
you're all complaining that rookies don't get game-time (which is due to the fact that until the moment every one of them has had at least a flaw in his game, mainly being unable to catch a ball in the passing game or to block) but, at the same time, just want to take any RB prospect that's around.
Black is the most complete prospect the 9ers have drafted in recent times, hence the one who has more possibilities to be given game-time... he's an excellent and willing blocker, has some very good hands to catch the ball and very quick feet as he's alraedy showing in trainings and OTAs, a very strong runner, etc.
KS is not going to sit CMC unless the alternative RB shows these traits but you say that any other RB taken over there later in the draft or in a trade "would suffice"?
that would very probably be a wasted pick or a wasted trade. And if they had thought that there was a viable alternative later in the draft or undrafted they would have taken him,... it wouldn't be the first time they take 2 RBs,... but they just took Black,... fora reason

Originally posted by SmokeyJoe:
Value in the draft is important. Pretending it's not because each player's value isn't clearly defined is a mistake.

value in the draft based on the "media experts" consensus opinion means sh*t,... teams don't follow it, at least many teams don't follow it,... and it requires just one team not following it to mean nothing,... it's entertaining during the months of March and April that there's no other worthy football news,... but doesn't mean sh*t once the real draft with real teams arrives

Originally posted by replikante:
Wrong. Both KS and JL said after the draft that they were expecting Black to go in the 4rd round, very probably early in it. And this was corroborated by, at least, a couple of after-draft reports.
So they took him very late in the 3rd because the 49ers scouting team had him very highly rated (specifically they have said they had him as the RB2 in this draft class) and they didn't want to risk not getting him.

"alternative options that would suffice"?
you're all complaining that rookies don't get game-time (which is due to the fact that until the moment every one of them has had at least a flaw in his game, mainly being unable to catch a ball in the passing game or to block) but, at the same time, just want to take any RB prospect that's around.
Black is the most complete prospect the 9ers have drafted in recent times, hence the one who has more possibilities to be given game-time... he's an excellent and willing blocker, has some very good hands to catch the ball and very quick feet as he's alraedy showing in trainings and OTAs, a very strong runner, etc.
KS is not going to sit CMC unless the alternative RB shows these traits but you say that any other RB taken over there later in the draft or in a trade "would suffice"?
that would very probably be a wasted pick or a wasted trade. And if they had thought that there was a viable alternative later in the draft or undrafted they would have taken him,... it wouldn't be the first time they take 2 RBs,... but they just took Black,... fora reason

value in the draft based on the "media experts" consensus opinion means sh*t,... teams don't follow it, at least many teams don't follow it,... and it requires just one team not following it to mean nothing,... it's entertaining during the months of March and April that there's no other worthy football news,... but doesn't mean sh*t once the real draft with real teams arrives

I saw what Kyle and John had to say. I expect them to defend their process and the point of the conversation isn't how the 49ers view this player. That is established. Link me the 'after-draft' reports that corroborate the idea Black was going to go 'probably very early' in the 4th (not that Kyle and John actually specified this rather than projected it).

I haven't cited any media experts or consensus opinion in this conversation. I am pointing to available evidence in conjunction with well established league trends at the position.

Originally posted by SmokeyJoe:
I saw what Kyle and John had to say. I expect them to defend their process and the point of the conversation isn't how the 49ers view this player. That is established. Link me the 'after-draft' reports that corroborate the idea Black was going to go 'probably very early' in the 4th (not that Kyle and John actually specified this rather than projected it).

I haven't cited any media experts or consensus opinion in this conversation. I am pointing to available evidence in conjunction with well established league trends at the position.

And yet, it's still woefully insufficient to project a player's value to other teams. You simply cannot say whether Black could have been had later.

I looked at the recent trend for RBs. Recently, only a small number get taken in the first three rounds. Then there's a run on them in rounds 4-6. Getting a player in 4-6 is a true crapshoot and the vast majority chosen by in this range are not guys that are making waves.

So, based on trends, the end of round three is about the time you want to grab a guy before the 4-6 run empties the cupboard. If you like a guy and think he stands out, this is a great spot to grab him.

So does Black stand out? He did to people independent of the team who studied his tape extensively (Cosell and JohnnyDel), and in JohnnyDel's case went to the Senior Bowl and thought he was the clear cream of the crop there. So if the team values him as RB2, and other independent evaluators using well-informed opinions think highly of him, then it's not a stretch that other teams also shared similar valuations despite his age.

At the end of the day, you think there were other guys that could have been later had who were similar to Black. Please do present who these guys are and why? I truly do not know as I don't study players until they are on our team. To my eyes, based on explosive testing numbers, watching JD's highlight packages (vision, strength/speed, blocking, etc), watching his route running at the senior bowl, Black is a talent worthy of the third round. So what other guys do you think compare favorably and could have been had much later where you project Black should have gone?

Originally posted by Chance:
And yet, it's still woefully insufficient to project a player's value to other teams. You simply cannot say whether Black could have been had later.

I looked at the recent trend for RBs. Recently, only a small number get taken in the first three rounds. Then there's a run on them in rounds 4-6. Getting a player in 4-6 is a true crapshoot and the vast majority chosen by in this range are not guys that are making waves.

So, based on trends, the end of round three is about the time you want to grab a guy before the 4-6 run empties the cupboard. If you like a guy and think he stands out, this is a great spot to grab him.

So does Black stand out? He did to people independent of the team who studied his tape extensively (Cosell and JohnnyDel), and in JohnnyDel's case went to the Senior Bowl and thought he was the clear cream of the crop there. So if the team values him as RB2, and other independent evaluators using well-informed opinions think highly of him, then it's not a stretch that other teams also shared similar valuations despite his age.

At the end of the day, you think there were other guys that could have been later had who were similar to Black. Please do present who these guys are and why? I truly do not know as I don't study players until they are on our team. To my eyes, based on explosive testing numbers, watching JD's highlight packages (vision, strength/speed, blocking, etc), watching his route running at the senior bowl, Black is a talent worthy of the third round. So what other guys do you think compare favorably and could have been had much later where you project Black should have gone?

This is bizarre reasoning. These players rarely work out and it's a crapshoot so it's a good strategy to preempt the later rounds and take a player you like early. Every one of the RBs…including the vast majority selected in rounds 4-6 who didn't work out… stood out to, and were liked by, the team that took them (including the 49ers, multiple times). You seem to avoid the obvious strategic conclusion to what your view of the RB drafting trend has been. It's really a theme in this conversation.

-Didn't get an invite to the combine? That means nothing. All that matters is how professional scouting departments view them (even though it was professional scouting departments that were the reason he was excluded).

-Being a prospect who will be 25 years old at one of the least valued and most replaceable position across the league… things that clearly would hurt an incoming rookie's value… actually a good thing, make sure to get him early.

The 49ers, with their professional scouting department, have missed over and over again with mid round running back selections while also successfully stocking the RB depth chart with low round picks, UDFAs, and at least one successful low value trade. This has been consistent throughout Shanahan and Lynch's time here.

So I get it that you, JD, Cosell, and the 49ers all view this player as capable. As you said, we will see in time. We will also see if there are other players that could have been had for cheaper, who could have reasonably matched whatever it is we get from Black for however long he's here, and what players at other positions we could have taken instead. We'll see if getting tunnel vision for a player, yet again, finally works out for this team after years of being unsuccessful using the same strategy.

Originally posted by SmokeyJoe:
This is bizarre reasoning. These players rarely work out and it's a crapshoot so it's a good strategy to preempt the later rounds and take a player you like early. Every one of the RBs…including the vast majority selected in rounds 4-6 who didn't work out… stood out to, and were liked by, the team that took them (including the 49ers, multiple times). You seem to avoid the obvious strategic conclusion to what your view of the RB drafting trend has been. It's really a theme in this conversation.

You misconstrue or misunderstand me. I don't think the team viewed Black as a guy in the echelon of those late round flyers like they did with Guerrendo and James. I believe the team used a third because they viewed Black as the number two back and didn't want to get cute assuming he'd last much longer. My point was, you see a guy you value, you grab him at three, because teams are going to start picking RBs round four and beyond. Hope that clears up the "bizarre reasoning".

-Didn't get an invite to the combine? That means nothing. All that matters is how professional scouting departments view them (even though it was professional scouting departments that were the reason he was excluded).

We've already discussed a possibility as to why some teams may not have wanted him exposed at the combine, particularly after his Senior Bowl performance. Regardless, his pro-day put him on the map for any team that may have just somehow missed the fact this dude was a stud. And any scouting department that dug into his tape would have drawn the same conclusions that a guy like Cosell had. So unless you are arguing that teams were correct for excluding him from the combine, I'm not really sure what your point is here.

-Being a prospect who will be 25 years old at one of the least valued and most replaceable position across the league… things that clearly would hurt an incoming rookie's value… actually a good thing, make sure to get him early.

Can you elucidate any other reasons that would have hurt his value. Things like vision, speed, strength, explosiveness, feet, shiftiness, wear and tear, blocking, route-running... You know, the things that teams value more than being 25 and in your athletic prime?

The 49ers, with their professional scouting department, have missed over and over again with mid round running back selections while also successfully stocking the RB depth chart with low round picks, UDFAs, and at least one successful low value trade. This has been consistent throughout Shanahan and Lynch's time here.

The only thing that tells me is that they are not inept. Had they not been able to identify udfa RBs, then we would be talking a different story which would be: why can't they evaluate the position? This is to say, that it's a crap-shoot, and while they have had previous failures in round three, that does not have any bearing on future success unless one is to believe they use different evaluation criteria based on the round they look at a guy, which would be preposterous. I say, let's see how Black does before we lump him into a group of guys (TDP, Williams, Sermon) he has done nothing to deserve.

So I get it that you, JD, Cosell, and the 49ers all view this player as capable. As you said, we will see in time. We will also see if there are other players that could have been had for cheaper, who could have reasonably matched whatever it is we get from Black for however long he's here, and what players at other positions we could have taken instead. We'll see if getting tunnel vision for a player, yet again, finally works out for this team after years of being unsuccessful using the same strategy.

Yes, we finally agree. We shall see.

Originally posted by Chance:
You misconstrue or misunderstand me. I don't think the team viewed Black as a guy in the echelon of those late round flyers like they did with Guerrendo and James. I believe the team used a third because they viewed Black as the number two back and didn't want to get cute assuming he'd last much longer. My point was, you see a guy you value, you grab him at three, because teams are going to start picking RBs round four and beyond. Hope that clears up the "bizarre reasoning".

We've already discussed a possibility as to why some teams may not have wanted him exposed at the combine, particularly after his Senior Bowl performance. Regardless, his pro-day put him on the map for any team that may have just somehow missed the fact this dude was a stud. And any scouting department that dug into his tape would have drawn the same conclusions that a guy like Cosell had. So unless you are arguing that teams were correct for excluding him from the combine, I'm not really sure what your point is here.

Can you elucidate any other reasons that would have hurt his value. Things like vision, speed, strength, explosiveness, feet, shiftiness, wear and tear, blocking, route-running... You know, the things that teams value more than being 25 and in your athletic prime?

The only thing that tells me is that they are not inept. Had they not been able to identify udfa RBs, then we would be talking a different story which would be: why can't they evaluate the position? This is to say, that it's a crap-shoot, and while they have had previous failures in round three, that does not have any bearing on future success unless one is to believe they use different evaluation criteria based on the round they look at a guy, which would be preposterous. I say, let's see how Black does before we lump him into a group of guys (TDP, Williams, Sermon) he has done nothing to deserve.

Yes, we finally agree. We shall see.

I'll keep this as short as possible:
-There is no debate about how the 49ers view this player. It is established with his selection.
- There's no evidence to support the idea Black was excluded from the combine as a strategic measure and no evidence this has ever happened with any player that I'm aware of. It's counter to the basic nature of the combine and a pointless move given what it would take to be successful. Redundant and absurd.
- There isn't an argument that the 49ers are inept at evaluating running backs. That they are not inept is not the prudent (or simplest) takeaway from the fact that they have been consistently successful stocking the position late in the draft, with udfa's, or via trade. The prudent takeaway is we have proven capable of filling this position with little investment time and time again.

Originally posted by SmokeyJoe:

Originally posted by Chance:
You misconstrue or misunderstand me. I don't think the team viewed Black as a guy in the echelon of those late round flyers like they did with Guerrendo and James. I believe the team used a third because they viewed Black as the number two back and didn't want to get cute assuming he'd last much longer. My point was, you see a guy you value, you grab him at three, because teams are going to start picking RBs round four and beyond. Hope that clears up the "bizarre reasoning".

We've already discussed a possibility as to why some teams may not have wanted him exposed at the combine, particularly after his Senior Bowl performance. Regardless, his pro-day put him on the map for any team that may have just somehow missed the fact this dude was a stud. And any scouting department that dug into his tape would have drawn the same conclusions that a guy like Cosell had. So unless you are arguing that teams were correct for excluding him from the combine, I'm not really sure what your point is here.

Can you elucidate any other reasons that would have hurt his value. Things like vision, speed, strength, explosiveness, feet, shiftiness, wear and tear, blocking, route-running... You know, the things that teams value more than being 25 and in your athletic prime?

The only thing that tells me is that they are not inept. Had they not been able to identify udfa RBs, then we would be talking a different story which would be: why can't they evaluate the position? This is to say, that it's a crap-shoot, and while they have had previous failures in round three, that does not have any bearing on future success unless one is to believe they use different evaluation criteria based on the round they look at a guy, which would be preposterous. I say, let's see how Black does before we lump him into a group of guys (TDP, Williams, Sermon) he has done nothing to deserve.

Yes, we finally agree. We shall see.

I'll keep this as short as possible:
-There is no debate about how the 49ers view this player. It is established with his selection.
- There's no evidence to support the idea Black was excluded from the combine as a strategic measure and no evidence this has ever happened with any player that I'm aware of. It's counter to the basic nature of the combine and a pointless move given what it would take to be successful. Redundant and absurd.
- There isn't an argument that the 49ers are inept at evaluating running backs. That's not the prudent (or simplest) takeaway from the fact that they have been consistently successful stocking the position late in the draft, with udfa's, or via trade. The prudent takeaway is we have proven capable of filling this position with little investment time and time again.

In the sake of following your lead, I'll keep it shorter:

1) It's reasonable to assume other teams do as well

2) I said it's possible. Plausible even, if you believe teams exercise every lever of competitive advantage legally available to them.

3) The only constant is change. As more disciples spread across the NFL, the less likely picking a UDFA atop the scrap heap becomes. Notice our recent lack of success here?

Originally posted by Chance:
In the sake of following your lead, I'll keep it shorter:

1) It's reasonable to assume other teams do as well

2) I said it's possible. Plausible even, if you believe teams exercise every lever of competitive advantage legally available to them.

3) The only constant is change. As more disciples spread across the NFL, the less likely picking a UDFA atop the scrap heap becomes. Notice our recent lack of success here?

Recent lack of success? Were Jordan Mason and Brian Robinson competent players, especially in a backup position? Those were our backups the last three years and they cost you a 6th round pick and very little money for both of them The 49ers have had consistent success here, including recently. Is there another position on the roster the 49ers have had comparable success with such little investment in multiple attempts over a long period of time? I don't think there is.

If the combine exclusion theory was plausible, surely there'd be some evidence of it happening. Tell me why you think it's plausible mechanically, or in practice. Let's see if we can break down why it doesn't make sense.

Originally posted by SmokeyJoe:

Originally posted by Chance:
In the sake of following your lead, I'll keep it shorter:

1) It's reasonable to assume other teams do as well

2) I said it's possible. Plausible even, if you believe teams exercise every lever of competitive advantage legally available to them.

3) The only constant is change. As more disciples spread across the NFL, the less likely picking a UDFA atop the scrap heap becomes. Notice our recent lack of success here?

Recent lack of success? Were Jordan Mason and Brian Robinson competent players, especially in a backup position? Those were our backups the last three years and they cost you a 6th round pick and very little money for both of them The 49ers have had consistent success here, including recently. Is there another position on the roster the 49ers have had comparable success with such little investment in multiple attempts over a long period of time? I don't think there is.

If the combine exclusion theory was plausible, surely there'd be some evidence of it happening. Tell me why you think it's plausible mechanically, or in practice. Let's see if we can break down why it doesn't make sense.

The pattern was to shorten, not expand. I'm sorry SmokeyJoe, but the weekend awaits.