49ers select Mykel Williams-DE-Georgia with the 11th pick in the 2025 NFL Draft

Originally posted by frenchmov:

Originally posted by the_dynasty:
No, it isn't. Reread my post above.

Saying that in a draft where VALUE is of outmost importance there is no such thing as overdrafted is like saying there is no such thing as buying high or selling low in a stock market.

Someone who understands and puts emphasis on value in stock market over someone who just says "I love stock X" will be a better trader with better profit margins. Same exact thing goes for the draft.

the last time pre-2025 Niners had clearly overdrafted in a public consensus (not talking head media, but actual draft experts) were Cam Latu and Jake Moody picks. Were they actually overdrafted ? Of course. Latu hasnt played a snap in the league and Moody is a below-average kicker with major issues.

What are you talking about? In order to make a definitive assertion like that, you'd need to see every teams draft chart, and then come to a conclusion on where player X mightve been taken.

What you are doing is using someone's opinion from ESPN, pff, etc. on where they believe a player slots in. It doesn't mean the league as a whole (ie THE ONLY THING THAT ACTUALLY MATTERS!) agrees with that ranking.

Then you try to prove a point by saying well latu was terrible once he got to the pros, couldn't sniff the field, so that proves no one else would've drafted him at that time

Do you see how your logic is faulty?

Exactly. Fans(I'm guilty of this myself) get so used to seeing certain projections during mock draft season that every player who is drafted much earlier than expected is an automatic reach and guys who went much earlier in mocks landing later are always steals.

Reality is without seeing every teams draft board we simply have no idea who got the best value and who reached for their guys way early.

In the end as long as the guys you draft are good players it doesn't matter.

Originally posted by frenchmov:
What are you talking about? In order to make a definitive assertion like that, you'd need to see every teams draft chart, and then come to a conclusion on where player X mightve been taken.

What you are doing is using someone's opinion from ESPN, pff, etc. on where they believe a player slots in. It doesn't mean the league as a whole (ie THE ONLY THING THAT ACTUALLY MATTERS!) agrees with that ranking.

Then you try to prove a point by saying well latu was terrible once he got to the pros, couldn't sniff the field, so that proves no one else would've drafted him at that time

Do you see how your logic is faulty?

Espn ? PFF ? There are scouts who get paid to do this. Scouts get paid to analyze players and sentiment on how each team would value a certain prospect. There is a reason there are consensus rankings out there.

Have you ever tried to buy or sell on stock market ? Option trading is exactly trying to predict a change of value, ie you need to understand how the other people would value.

It's a game of value. This is how Howie and Baltimore GM operate.

[quote]Then you try to prove a point by saying well latu was terrible once he got to the pros, couldn't sniff the field, so that proves no one else would've drafted him at that time

Do you see how your logic is faulty?[/quote]
My logic isnt faulty. Latu and Moody were overdrafted, and they were clearly overdrafted by all means. The people who are homers and defend every move the team makes, will tell you to "believe in kyle/49ers" and "espn doesnt know anything" while they themselves never watched these players or any tape.

Then when most of the 49ers overdrafted picks fail and it shows that they arent the smartest person in the room, the homers then will shift the goalposts to "no one gets them all right".

It's very simple. Using perception and boards of other teams is part of the game in draft and a big part in building a team. Something you don't want to understand.

Originally posted by genus49:

In the end as long as the guys you draft are good players it doesn't matter.

this is so false on so many levels. you got stock X at 10 dollars and made 100k. but if you got stock X at 5 dollars you made 200k

it matters. value matters. the niners were so close to winning the SB, that not eschewing value could have pushed them over the top.
instead of drafting Latu or Moody in the third round they could have gotten someone much better and they would still have gotten a kicker and a TE later on.

they could have picked you or me as TE and achieved the same result

Originally posted by frenchmov:

Originally posted by the_dynasty:
No, it isn't. Reread my post above.

Saying that in a draft where VALUE is of outmost importance there is no such thing as overdrafted is like saying there is no such thing as buying high or selling low in a stock market.

Someone who understands and puts emphasis on value in stock market over someone who just says "I love stock X" will be a better trader with better profit margins. Same exact thing goes for the draft.

the last time pre-2025 Niners had clearly overdrafted in a public consensus (not talking head media, but actual draft experts) were Cam Latu and Jake Moody picks. Were they actually overdrafted ? Of course. Latu hasnt played a snap in the league and Moody is a below-average kicker with major issues.

What are you talking about? In order to make a definitive assertion like that, you'd need to see every teams draft chart, and then come to a conclusion on where player X mightve been taken.

What you are doing is using someone's opinion from ESPN, pff, etc. on where they believe a player slots in. It doesn't mean the league as a whole (ie THE ONLY THING THAT ACTUALLY MATTERS!) agrees with that ranking.

Then you try to prove a point by saying well latu was terrible once he got to the pros, couldn't sniff the field, so that proves no one else would've drafted him at that time

Do you see how your logic is faulty?

Yep

Originally posted by genus49:

Originally posted by frenchmov:

Originally posted by the_dynasty:
No, it isn't. Reread my post above.

Saying that in a draft where VALUE is of outmost importance there is no such thing as overdrafted is like saying there is no such thing as buying high or selling low in a stock market.

Someone who understands and puts emphasis on value in stock market over someone who just says "I love stock X" will be a better trader with better profit margins. Same exact thing goes for the draft.

the last time pre-2025 Niners had clearly overdrafted in a public consensus (not talking head media, but actual draft experts) were Cam Latu and Jake Moody picks. Were they actually overdrafted ? Of course. Latu hasnt played a snap in the league and Moody is a below-average kicker with major issues.

What are you talking about? In order to make a definitive assertion like that, you'd need to see every teams draft chart, and then come to a conclusion on where player X mightve been taken.

What you are doing is using someone's opinion from ESPN, pff, etc. on where they believe a player slots in. It doesn't mean the league as a whole (ie THE ONLY THING THAT ACTUALLY MATTERS!) agrees with that ranking.

Then you try to prove a point by saying well latu was terrible once he got to the pros, couldn't sniff the field, so that proves no one else would've drafted him at that time

Do you see how your logic is faulty?

Exactly. Fans(I'm guilty of this myself) get so used to seeing certain projections during mock draft season that every player who is drafted much earlier than expected is an automatic reach and guys who went much earlier in mocks landing later are always steals.

Reality is without seeing every teams draft board we simply have no idea who got the best value and who reached for their guys way early.

In the end as long as the guys you draft are good players it doesn't matter.

Yep yep

It always sounds pretentious as hell when someone starts talking "value" when they have never participated in a draft, made a draft board, or even collected a check from an NFL team, much less know what value a team places on a player or a draft position.. Speculation is great and all, but when you start pontificating like your opinion is fact, you lose credibility. Why is this derailing the thread anyway? Isn't this where we are supposed to be discussing how Williams is looking the part out there so far?

Originally posted by genus49:

Originally posted by frenchmov:

Originally posted by the_dynasty:
No, it isn't. Reread my post above.

Saying that in a draft where VALUE is of outmost importance there is no such thing as overdrafted is like saying there is no such thing as buying high or selling low in a stock market.

Someone who understands and puts emphasis on value in stock market over someone who just says "I love stock X" will be a better trader with better profit margins. Same exact thing goes for the draft.

the last time pre-2025 Niners had clearly overdrafted in a public consensus (not talking head media, but actual draft experts) were Cam Latu and Jake Moody picks. Were they actually overdrafted ? Of course. Latu hasnt played a snap in the league and Moody is a below-average kicker with major issues.

What are you talking about? In order to make a definitive assertion like that, you'd need to see every teams draft chart, and then come to a conclusion on where player X mightve been taken.

What you are doing is using someone's opinion from ESPN, pff, etc. on where they believe a player slots in. It doesn't mean the league as a whole (ie THE ONLY THING THAT ACTUALLY MATTERS!) agrees with that ranking.

Then you try to prove a point by saying well latu was terrible once he got to the pros, couldn't sniff the field, so that proves no one else would've drafted him at that time

Do you see how your logic is faulty?

Exactly. Fans(I'm guilty of this myself) get so used to seeing certain projections during mock draft season that every player who is drafted much earlier than expected is an automatic reach and guys who went much earlier in mocks landing later are always steals.

Reality is without seeing every teams draft board we simply have no idea who got the best value and who reached for their guys way early.

In the end as long as the guys you draft are good players it doesn't matter.

Very true.

Originally posted by the_dynasty:
Espn ? PFF ? There are scouts who get paid to do this. Scouts get paid to analyze players and sentiment on how each team would value a certain prospect. There is a reason there are consensus rankings out there.

If these scouts were worth a damn, they'd be working in the NFL. Mayock was one of the highest rated draftniks that existed, people followed him, took his word as gospel and then he became a GM and completely s**t his pants. When these draftnik's miss, they just ignore it and move on and they miss a whole lot, every single year, consistently.

All that stuff is good for entertainment, good for debates, I've always been interested in following the draft and trying to predict who will be successful and what players are best for the 49ers but I'm never going to lie to myself and pretend like I'm getting anything near a full picture of who these prospect's are compared to those who watch film religiously and are paid to do it for a living.

None of these draftnik's get a full view of who these prospects are, none of them attend team private workouts and interviews, none of them have the depth of film study that NFL scouts will have on these players, none of them have full access to medical records and other crucial information. You really think these guys out there are watching dozens of hours of film on every single one of hundreds of prospects? Hell no. They're throwing darts at a dartboard with one eye open at the very best.

Its all just for fun dude.

Originally posted by the_dynasty:

Originally posted by genus49:

In the end as long as the guys you draft are good players it doesn't matter.

this is so false on so many levels. you got stock X at 10 dollars and made 100k. but if you got stock X at 5 dollars you made 200k

it matters. value matters. the niners were so close to winning the SB, that not eschewing value could have pushed them over the top.
instead of drafting Latu or Moody in the third round they could have gotten someone much better and they would still have gotten a kicker and a TE later on.

they could have picked you or me as TE and achieved the same result

You ignored the rest of the post and went back to your stock analogy.

You're the one not understanding that all those people who get paid to make mock drafts and make their prospect rankings are doing them in a bubble. Teams have their own draft boards and base theirs on what THEY want from players both on the field and off the field. The traits they may value more than others may not match up with some other teams.

I don't disagree that Latu and Moody were overdrafted but you also don't know. For instance the Pats selected a kicker 13 picks after we took Moody. Very possible they would've drafted Moody instead of Ryland.

Latu is more likely the major over draft both in the fact that he was an epic bust and the fact that no TE was drafted the whole 4th round...though of course it's also possible had we not taken Latu then maybe one of those teams in the 4th round would have.

And had Latu turned into a dominant TE for us you wouldn't be here complaining about him being over drafted which was the point. Stop making analogies which are simply not comparable to the craziness that is the NFL draft.

And to get this back to Mykel Williams. We'll see how he goes but odds are his injury riddled last season allowed him to fall to us and the "reach" picks this draft class were probably our 3rd round picks. One of which is looking terrific and could be in line to start week 1 at NCB and the other is also looking pretty good, just not as good as Dee Winters.

Originally posted by genus49:

Originally posted by the_dynasty:

Originally posted by genus49:

In the end as long as the guys you draft are good players it doesn't matter.

this is so false on so many levels. you got stock X at 10 dollars and made 100k. but if you got stock X at 5 dollars you made 200k

it matters. value matters. the niners were so close to winning the SB, that not eschewing value could have pushed them over the top.
instead of drafting Latu or Moody in the third round they could have gotten someone much better and they would still have gotten a kicker and a TE later on.

they could have picked you or me as TE and achieved the same result

You ignored the rest of the post and went back to your stock analogy.

You're the one not understanding that all those people who get paid to make mock drafts and make their prospect rankings are doing them in a bubble. Teams have their own draft boards and base theirs on what THEY want from players both on the field and off the field. The traits they may value more than others may not match up with some other teams.

I don't disagree that Latu and Moody were overdrafted but you also don't know. For instance the Pats selected a kicker 13 picks after we took Moody. Very possible they would've drafted Moody instead of Ryland.

Latu is more likely the major over draft both in the fact that he was an epic bust and the fact that no TE was drafted the whole 4th round...though of course it's also possible had we not taken Latu then maybe one of those teams in the 4th round would have.

And had Latu turned into a dominant TE for us you wouldn't be here complaining about him being over drafted which was the point. Stop making analogies which are simply not comparable to the craziness that is the NFL draft.

And to get this back to Mykel Williams. We'll see how he goes but odds are his injury riddled last season allowed him to fall to us and the "reach" picks this draft class were probably our 3rd round picks. One of which is looking terrific and could be in line to start week 1 at NCB and the other is also looking pretty good, just not as good as Dee Winters.

Joe Montana, consensus was around the 5th round, massive overdraft.
Russell Wilson, consensus was around the 6th round, massive overdraft.

People treat mock drafts, even by professionals, as if they are fact. When teams pick players earlier than the mock and they outperform their draft position it's not proof of anything, but when they underperform their draft position it's proof overdrafting is real. When a player is "underdrafted" and fails it's just bad luck, but when they are underdrafted and wildly outperform where they were drafted it's "proof" the mock draft was right.

There is no real logic involved.

Originally posted by the_dynasty:

Originally posted by frenchmov:
What are you talking about? In order to make a definitive assertion like that, you'd need to see every teams draft chart, and then come to a conclusion on where player X mightve been taken.

What you are doing is using someone's opinion from ESPN, pff, etc. on where they believe a player slots in. It doesn't mean the league as a whole (ie THE ONLY THING THAT ACTUALLY MATTERS!) agrees with that ranking.

Then you try to prove a point by saying well latu was terrible once he got to the pros, couldn't sniff the field, so that proves no one else would've drafted him at that time

Do you see how your logic is faulty?

Espn ? PFF ? There are scouts who get paid to do this. Scouts get paid to analyze players and sentiment on how each team would value a certain prospect. There is a reason there are consensus rankings out there.

Have you ever tried to buy or sell on stock market ? Option trading is exactly trying to predict a change of value, ie you need to understand how the other people would value.

It's a game of value. This is how Howie and Baltimore GM operate.

[quote]Then you try to prove a point by saying well latu was terrible once he got to the pros, couldn't sniff the field, so that proves no one else would've drafted him at that time

Do you see how your logic is faulty?[/quote]
My logic isnt faulty. Latu and Moody were overdrafted, and they were clearly overdrafted by all means. The people who are homers and defend every move the team makes, will tell you to "believe in kyle/49ers" and "espn doesnt know anything" while they themselves never watched these players or any tape.

Then when most of the 49ers overdrafted picks fail and it shows that they arent the smartest person in the room, the homers then will shift the goalposts to "no one gets them all right".

It's very simple. Using perception and boards of other teams is part of the game in draft and a big part in building a team. Something you don't want to understand.

I know you don't want to hear this but every team overdrafts players. I don't really get the point you are trying to make. Are you saying the 49ers ignore other teams and just draft who they want when they want? How do you know this?

Howie over drafted Jalen Raegor while passing on Justin Jefferson. Same with JJ Whiteside over DK and McLaurin.

Players get "overdrafted" for a # of reasons. Mostly because the team's scouts are higher on players than the national media is. We have great tools available to us like consensus big boards and such but none of us know what any NFL team big board actually looks like.

At the end of the day no matter how you want to spin it, you're lucky if 3 of the 7 picks you make in any given draft amount to much. This includes every GM ever employed by an NFL team. Howie, DeCosta (Ravens GM), Kyle, Bill Walsh, etc.

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Originally posted by miked1978:

Originally posted by the_dynasty:

Originally posted by frenchmov:
What are you talking about? In order to make a definitive assertion like that, you'd need to see every teams draft chart, and then come to a conclusion on where player X mightve been taken.

What you are doing is using someone's opinion from ESPN, pff, etc. on where they believe a player slots in. It doesn't mean the league as a whole (ie THE ONLY THING THAT ACTUALLY MATTERS!) agrees with that ranking.

Then you try to prove a point by saying well latu was terrible once he got to the pros, couldn't sniff the field, so that proves no one else would've drafted him at that time

Do you see how your logic is faulty?

Espn ? PFF ? There are scouts who get paid to do this. Scouts get paid to analyze players and sentiment on how each team would value a certain prospect. There is a reason there are consensus rankings out there.

Have you ever tried to buy or sell on stock market ? Option trading is exactly trying to predict a change of value, ie you need to understand how the other people would value.

It's a game of value. This is how Howie and Baltimore GM operate.

[quote]Then you try to prove a point by saying well latu was terrible once he got to the pros, couldn't sniff the field, so that proves no one else would've drafted him at that time

Do you see how your logic is faulty?[/quote]
My logic isnt faulty. Latu and Moody were overdrafted, and they were clearly overdrafted by all means. The people who are homers and defend every move the team makes, will tell you to "believe in kyle/49ers" and "espn doesnt know anything" while they themselves never watched these players or any tape.

Then when most of the 49ers overdrafted picks fail and it shows that they arent the smartest person in the room, the homers then will shift the goalposts to "no one gets them all right".

It's very simple. Using perception and boards of other teams is part of the game in draft and a big part in building a team. Something you don't want to understand.

I know you don't want to hear this but every team overdrafts players. I don't really get the point you are trying to make. Are you saying the 49ers ignore other teams and just draft who they want when they want? How do you know this?

Howie over drafted Jalen Raegor while passing on Justin Jefferson. Same with JJ Whiteside over DK and McLaurin.

Players get "overdrafted" for a # of reasons. Mostly because the team's scouts are higher on players than the national media is. We have great tools available to us like consensus big boards and such but none of us know what any NFL team big board actually looks like.

At the end of the day no matter how you want to spin it, you're lucky if 3 of the 7 picks you make in any given draft amount to much. This includes every GM ever employed by an NFL team. Howie, DeCosta (Ravens GM), Kyle, Bill Walsh, etc.

We actually got to see a few team's boards over the years and found that several "overdrafted" players would have been drafted shortly after they were drafted by another team who had them ranked at the same place. We KNOW teams big boards and the "consensus" mock boards don't agree regularly. It's a media creation because it spurs discussion and clicks. The reality is that mock drafts are made by people who can't come close to affording as much time spent as the teams do, and even then they don't take a deep view of the team's needs pick by pick, and certainly after the 1st round mock draft effort falls off a cliff.

Another thing that is telling is how often players make big jumps on mock drafts in the last couple weeks before the draft. It's not like the player suddenly changed. Either new data has come out or some team/scout has significantly talked them up or down.

Just look at this year and Shadeur Sanders who was a consensus top 2 pick in the draft in January and by April was in the top 10 picks in the draft then EVERY TEAM IN THE NFL IGNORED HIS "VALUE" for 4 entire rounds. So since his "value" was a top 2 pick in the draft he must be the top QB in camp right? Nope. So QB2? Nope. QB3? Nope. He will probably make the roster as the emergency QB just in case he still has value.

How anyone can look at the same system that consistently missed the "value" of Sanders and treat ANYTHING they say as if it's a fact is a mystery I will never understand.

Anyone in here wanna talk about Mykell?

Originally posted by Memphis9er:
Anyone in here wanna talk about Mykell?

He seems fine :)

Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:

Originally posted by the_dynasty:
Espn ? PFF ? There are scouts who get paid to do this. Scouts get paid to analyze players and sentiment on how each team would value a certain prospect. There is a reason there are consensus rankings out there.

If these scouts were worth a damn, they'd be working in the NFL. Mayock was one of the highest rated draftniks that existed, people followed him, took his word as gospel and then he became a GM and completely s**t his pants. When these draftnik's miss, they just ignore it and move on and they miss a whole lot, every single year, consistently.

All that stuff is good for entertainment, good for debates, I've always been interested in following the draft and trying to predict who will be successful and what players are best for the 49ers but I'm never going to lie to myself and pretend like I'm getting anything near a full picture of who these prospect's are compared to those who watch film religiously and are paid to do it for a living.

None of these draftnik's get a full view of who these prospects are, none of them attend team private workouts and interviews, none of them have the depth of film study that NFL scouts will have on these players, none of them have full access to medical records and other crucial information. You really think these guys out there are watching dozens of hours of film on every single one of hundreds of prospects? Hell no. They're throwing darts at a dartboard with one eye open at the very best.

Its all just for fun dude.

I think there's an in between with all this. IMO folks can absolutely be pissed if SF drafted someone like TJ sanders (who I liked) at say 11th overall.

no, guys who just do draft evaluations outside of the NFL aren't the smartest folks in the room, I would say it's a guideline with what's what and for the most part the big boards of all those people aren't marginally different then NFL teams…also we have data showing that we've been one of worst teams as far as reaching goes the past couple yrs and overall it hasn't been good.

Ill add…the funny thing with Mayock is when he was a GM he was reaching more than most GMs and that didn't work out very well for him either.