Niners Road to the #1 Seed

Silky · 2023-11-15T05:51:01-08:00

The road to the #1 seed exists. Right now the trail is not marked, a storm just passed through, a ton of branches and trees fell on it, and it is a bit snow covered. Alas, we can still get it. Here's how I see things shaking out: Remaining Eagles Schedule: Chiefs, Bills, Niners, Cowboys, Seahawks, Giants, Cardinals Giants Remaining Cowboys Schedule: Panthers, Commanders, Seahawks, Eagles, Bills, Dolphins, Lions, Commanders Remaining Lions Schedule: Bears, Packers, Saints, Bears, Broncos, Vikings, Cowboys, Vikings Remaining Niners Schedule: Bucs, Seahawks, Eagles, Seahawks, Cardinals, Ravens, Commanders, Rams To start things, off I honestly think the Lions have the easiest road to the #1 seed. They do have some divisional games left and may drop a couple of those. The main culprit are the Eagles. For us to get the #1 seed, there are a few assumptions here. We basically have to win out, maybe can drop one more game, and win that game in Philly. I think the Eagles lose that game to the Cowboys and Niners. I actually think they beat the Chiefs on Monday night which will suck, but it's not the end of the world. They most likely beat the Bills with the way both teams are currently playing, but if the good Bills show up that day who knows. I can see the Eagles ending with 3-4 losses and we would own the tie-breaker assuming we have the same record as them. The Cowboys already have 3 losses and we own the tie-breaker over them. They need to beat Philly which I think they will in Dallas. They will drop another one to the Bills, Dolphins, or Commanders (at least one). We should finish with the same or better record than them. Unfortunately, we must count on them. The Lions currently have 2 losses and their remaining schedule is not too hard. We must assume one of those Vikings games is an L. That puts them at 3 losses. The Broncos game now all of a sudden looks tough. Who knows what happens in that game. Again, we may need an assist from the Cowboys to have the same or better record than the Lions. I'm not sure how the tie-breaker would pan out against the Lions. Hopefully we would own it since our losses mainly came against AFC teams. Finally the remaining Niners schedule is tough. If we play good Niner football, we can win all of those games. We will most likely be favored in all of them except against the Ravens. Even then it may be a pick em' game. The Ravens just lost and showed some vulnerability. They can be beat, but we suck against mobile QBs. I'm assuming that will be an L. We must beat the Eagles and the remaining opponents. to stay within that 4 loss window. Winning out should secure us the first round bye. Now I know what you are all thinking. Don't count your chickens before they eat their baby hatchlings at the top of a Marriott hotel. However the saying goes. But this is what we fans do. I give us a 32% chance at the #1 seed if we end with 4 losses. An 86% chance if we win out. I'm excited to see how the rest of the season pans out.

Nov 15, 2023 at 5:56 AM

genus49
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Unfortunate we ruined our chances to control our own destiny and our odds are slim given our schedule and the Lions schedule.

Hopefully we manage to win out similar to after the CMC trade(or at least after he got a full week of practice in) and hope the Lions slip up here or there so we can get it.

We're a good enough team if healthy to make a run without the bye week but it would also be absolutely huge to have the rest and not have to travel until hopefully reaching the SB(which would be a short flight for the team and the bulk of the fanbase)

Nov 15, 2023 at 7:37 AM

TopDogBerkeley
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If 49ers go to Detroit they have a good chance of success and then you hope that someone knocks off Philly so that the NFC Championship Game is at home.

Nov 15, 2023 at 7:41 AM

Fanaticofnfl
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Posts: 21,225

I know a lot of people won't like this comment, but our main focus right now should be winning the division. All it takes is two bad or unlucky games against Seattle and suddenly we're looking at the 6 seed.

Nov 15, 2023 at 7:57 AM

Kolohe
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Posts: 67,490

9ers won't get the 1st seed, Philly isn't losing to anyone else. And the Lions remaining schedule is so easy, it would make Arizona look like contenders. Gonna be a tough road to Vegas.

Nov 15, 2023 at 8:07 AM

Sickaa
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There's slim chance of us getting the #1 seed after losing 3 straight games and because of that, we could be seeing a repeat of last super bowl

Nov 15, 2023 at 8:08 AM

TopDogBerkeley
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Posts: 524

Originally posted by Kolohe:
Philly isn't losing to anyone else.

It is extremely unlikely that at team only loses once in a season. But I think it is just as unlikely that the 49ers can win out if the Eagles and Lions both finish with three losses. I say 3 seed at best.

[ Edited by TopDogBerkeley on Nov 15, 2023 at 8:08 AM ]

Nov 15, 2023 at 8:09 AM

CatchMaster80
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Posts: 21,040

Originally posted by Kolohe:
9ers won't get the 1st seed, Philly isn't losing to anyone else. And the Lions remaining schedule is so easy, it would make Arizona look like contenders. Gonna be a tough road to Vegas.

Even if the Niners beat Philly they would need to lose at least one more. That's assuming the Niners don't lose any more games.

Nov 15, 2023 at 8:17 AM

Kolohe
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Originally posted by TopDogBerkeley:

Originally posted by Kolohe:
Philly isn't losing to anyone else.

It is extremely unlikely that at team only loses once in a season. But I think it is just as unlikely that the 49ers can win out if the Eagles and Lions both finish with three losses. I say 3 seed at best.

Philly, Baltimore and two games vs Seattle gonna be a grind. Seriously, I have faith but man it's a pipe dream to think the 9ers will go 8-0 to end the season.

Nov 15, 2023 at 8:22 AM

Kolohe
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Originally posted by CatchMaster80:

Originally posted by Kolohe:
9ers won't get the 1st seed, Philly isn't losing to anyone else. And the Lions remaining schedule is so easy, it would make Arizona look like contenders. Gonna be a tough road to Vegas.

Even if the Niners beat Philly they would need to lose at least one more. That's assuming the Niners don't lose any more games.

Yah you're right. Huge game for them this Monday (unreal they get an extra day off). Then they play Buffalo, which I think will be a walk in the park for them. But I will say this, I'd rather see them play the NFCC in Detroit than Philly. And this is how it's setting up to be.

Nov 15, 2023 at 8:30 AM

#10

illinois9er
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Posts: 6,165

Originally posted by Kolohe:
9ers won't get the 1st seed, Philly isn't losing to anyone else. And the Lions remaining schedule is so easy, it would make Arizona look like contenders. Gonna be a tough road to Vegas.

What's the bet on Philly winning out lol?

Nov 15, 2023 at 8:39 AM

#11

Fanaticofnfl
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Posts: 21,225

Just a guess, but I think if we go 7-1 and the one loss is NOT to Philly, we get the 1 seed. Anything less and we get the 3 seed. If we don't finish at least 5-3 OR get swept by Seattle we lose the division.

The Eagles/Lions really don't have as easy of a schedule as people think. Eagles still have to play at Kansas City, at Dallas, at Seattle, us, and a desperate Bills team. Lions have to play at New Orleans, at Dallas and the Vikings twice.

[ Edited by Fanaticofnfl on Nov 15, 2023 at 8:40 AM ]

Nov 15, 2023 at 8:47 AM

#12

Kolohe
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Originally posted by illinois9er:

Originally posted by Kolohe:
9ers won't get the 1st seed, Philly isn't losing to anyone else. And the Lions remaining schedule is so easy, it would make Arizona look like contenders. Gonna be a tough road to Vegas.

What's the bet on Philly winning out lol?

The odds are good for them. But TBH, I hope they win the rest of their games, that means there's a good chance they lose in the playoffs.

Nov 15, 2023 at 8:53 AM

#13

YACBros85
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Posts: 9,899

Originally posted by illinois9er:

Originally posted by Kolohe:
9ers won't get the 1st seed, Philly isn't losing to anyone else. And the Lions remaining schedule is so easy, it would make Arizona look like contenders. Gonna be a tough road to Vegas.

What's the bet on Philly winning out lol?

So the eagles are going to beat BUF, KC in KC, DAL in DAL, 49ers and SEA in SEA? Their schedule is tougher than ours down the stretch but they hold a 2 game lead over us. Their chances at the #1 seed are certainly better than ours but no way they go undefeated the rest of the way.

Nov 15, 2023 at 8:53 AM

#14

Kolohe
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Posts: 67,490

Originally posted by Fanaticofnfl:
Just a guess, but I think if we go 7-1 and the one loss is NOT to Philly, we get the 1 seed. Anything less and we get the 3 seed. If we don't finish at least 5-3 OR get swept by Seattle we lose the division.

The Eagles/Lions really don't have as easy of a schedule as people think. Eagles still have to play at Kansas City, at Dallas, at Seattle, us, and a desperate Bills team. Lions have to play at New Orleans, at Dallas and the Vikings twice.

They'll beat Seattle and KC I'm pretty sure of, Dallas is the only question mark. Philly has lost in Dallas 5 straight seasons and have never swept the Cowboys in 11 seasons. So the worst Philly does IMO is 15-2.