QB Brock Purdy Thread

Originally posted by tankle104:
Hmm do you mind expanding on what that means? Or providing a link where I can read up on it?

does that mean that he gets sacked 13.7% of the time he is pressure? Do you have those numbers for Lance and jimmy This year or last?

lances is a small sample size but I'm just curious

Trey 16.7 this year 11.1 altogether
Jimmy 18.8 this year. 21.6 last year. 21.5 career.

I believe it to mean how often you are sacked when pressured.

Originally posted by OKC49erFan:
Purdy's pass that bounced off Kittle's chest in the end zone. Purdy zipped it between two defenders to hit Kittle.
is it a Turnover worthy play, or Touchdown worthy play… or both?

I was thinking of the TOWP as an analysis of incompletions, but plays like this really could be both. A tick under each for one incompletion, which kinda confuses the data a little for me. Perhaps not, and I'm overthinking,

I would not consider that a TWP considering it hit Kittle in the shoulder pads.

Purdy's Dad on 95.7 the game

Originally posted by thl408:

Originally posted by OKC49erFan:
Purdy's pass that bounced off Kittle's chest in the end zone. Purdy zipped it between two defenders to hit Kittle.
is it a Turnover worthy play, or Touchdown worthy play… or both?

I was thinking of the TOWP as an analysis of incompletions, but plays like this really could be both. A tick under each for one incompletion, which kinda confuses the data a little for me. Perhaps not, and I'm overthinking,

I would not consider that a TWP considering it hit Kittle in the shoulder pads.

I agree, but I could see where someone could argue TOWP since the defenders were just out of reach, so close, some media folks credited them for defending the pass.

I'm a simple guy. I think I will stick with the standard stats and appreciate the discussion provided here from y'all that know better.

Originally posted by thl408:

Originally posted by OKC49erFan:
Purdy's pass that bounced off Kittle's chest in the end zone. Purdy zipped it between two defenders to hit Kittle.
is it a Turnover worthy play, or Touchdown worthy play… or both?

I was thinking of the TOWP as an analysis of incompletions, but plays like this really could be both. A tick under each for one incompletion, which kinda confuses the data a little for me. Perhaps not, and I'm overthinking,

I would not consider that a TWP considering it hit Kittle in the shoulder pads.

What does PFF say about it?

I likely missed it, but all this discussion about what PFF considers to be an almost INT seems useless unless it is concretely defined.

Originally posted by thl408:

Originally posted by OKC49erFan:
Purdy's pass that bounced off Kittle's chest in the end zone. Purdy zipped it between two defenders to hit Kittle.
is it a Turnover worthy play, or Touchdown worthy play… or both?

I was thinking of the TOWP as an analysis of incompletions, but plays like this really could be both. A tick under each for one incompletion, which kinda confuses the data a little for me. Perhaps not, and I'm overthinking,

I would not consider that a TWP considering it hit Kittle in the shoulder pads.

Shanahan seemed to be excited when describing Purdy as a gunslinger and this is one good example. Purdy doesn't hesitate to sling it when he sees a hole. I think it's a good thing. I think what coach Shanahan was trying to say was he'll go with a decisive QB than a QB who will just wait until the receiver is absolutely open which makes him prone for sacks. In NFL, you should be willing to take the risk and if you're good and decisive, you'll get positive results more often than not.

Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:
Purdy's Dad on 95.7 the game

It should be on YouTube then, right?

For me the pass to Kittle is not a TWP. Is it risky? Yes probably but a NFL receiver should make the catch IMHO and quite frankly George has made way harder receptions than this one.
As for the sack percentage, Purdy is at 4,5%. He would be 4th in the ranking right now if he played enough games. Jimmy is 9th. Brady and Mahomes obviously are 1 and 2.
I would say it confirms the eye test. Brock avoids a lot of sacks with his play inside and outside the pocket.

Originally posted by tankle104:

Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:
Purdy's Dad on 95.7 the game

It should be on YouTube then, right?

Yes. Every 95.7 the game show is on Youtube. Baldy is a guest there every week for example.

Originally posted by NineFourNiner:

Originally posted by thl408:

Originally posted by OKC49erFan:
Purdy's pass that bounced off Kittle's chest in the end zone. Purdy zipped it between two defenders to hit Kittle.
is it a Turnover worthy play, or Touchdown worthy play… or both?

I was thinking of the TOWP as an analysis of incompletions, but plays like this really could be both. A tick under each for one incompletion, which kinda confuses the data a little for me. Perhaps not, and I'm overthinking,

I would not consider that a TWP considering it hit Kittle in the shoulder pads.

What does PFF say about it?

I likely missed it, but all this discussion about what PFF considers to be an almost INT seems useless unless it is concretely defined.

https://www.pff.com/news/bet-pff-turnover-worthy-plays-bet-nfl-player-props#:~:text=Since%202006%2C%20PFF%20has%20tracked%20a%20statistic%20called,the%20pocket%2C%20throws%20that%20are%20interceptable%20and%20interceptions.

Originally posted by NYniner85:

Originally posted by TheWooLick:

Sometimes throwing into double coverage isn't bad, sometimes it is.
The problem is with where to draw the line.
I have no idea what the "results" are of what other unknown people deem to be TOWP or First Down Worthy Plays or Reception Worthy Plays or Touchdown Worthy Plays because I dismiss them.
I use my eyes and statistics to evaluate 49er QBs.

Not my problem if you don't want to take the time to understand how certain data is produced…saying you don't like it "just because" doesn't sound like a great rebuttal to me. TWPR is a statistic that has a ton of correlation to bad QB play and INTs year after year. If you can't "see" that a pass is inaccurate, that a QB miss reads a coverage or yes throws into double coverage when he shouldn't be…again that's not my problem and it doesn't take away anything from that stat overall imo.

It also doesn't mean Brock hasn't been playing good ball, he's gotta tighten up on some stuff if we want to go all the way.

I do understand how this data is produced and it is subjective. What understanding am I missing?

It isn't an objective "statistic".

What is the formula for determining when a throw into double coverage is turbines worthy and when it is not?

Originally posted by TheWooLick:

Originally posted by NYniner85:

Originally posted by TheWooLick:
Sometimes throwing into double coverage isn't bad, sometimes it is.
The problem is with where to draw the line.
I have no idea what the "results" are of what other unknown people deem to be TOWP or First Down Worthy Plays or Reception Worthy Plays or Touchdown Worthy Plays because I dismiss them.
I use my eyes and statistics to evaluate 49er QBs.

Not my problem if you don't want to take the time to understand how certain data is produced…saying you don't like it "just because" doesn't sound like a great rebuttal to me. TWPR is a statistic that has a ton of correlation to bad QB play and INTs year after year. If you can't "see" that a pass is inaccurate, that a QB miss reads a coverage or yes throws into double coverage when he shouldn't be…again that's not my problem and it doesn't take away anything from that stat overall imo.

It also doesn't mean Brock hasn't been playing good ball, he's gotta tighten up on some stuff if we want to go all the way.

I do understand how this data is produced and it is subjective. What understanding am I missing?

It isn't an objective "statistic".

What is the formula for determining when a throw into double coverage is turbines worthy and when it is not?

When the ball touches the defender 1st.

so teams with poor OLs will have a greater influence on a QBs TOWP percentage because the QB is constantly getting pressured and create more chances for getting the ball loose.

Originally posted by 49erF90:

Originally posted by thl408:

Originally posted by OKC49erFan:
Purdy's pass that bounced off Kittle's chest in the end zone. Purdy zipped it between two defenders to hit Kittle.
is it a Turnover worthy play, or Touchdown worthy play… or both?

I was thinking of the TOWP as an analysis of incompletions, but plays like this really could be both. A tick under each for one incompletion, which kinda confuses the data a little for me. Perhaps not, and I'm overthinking,

I would not consider that a TWP considering it hit Kittle in the shoulder pads.

Shanahan seemed to be excited when describing Purdy as a gunslinger and this is one good example. Purdy doesn't hesitate to sling it when he sees a hole. I think it's a good thing. I think what coach Shanahan was trying to say was he'll go with a decisive QB than a QB who will just wait until the receiver is absolutely open which makes him prone for sacks. In NFL, you should be willing to take the risk and if you're good and decisive, you'll get positive results more often than not.

He sure hesitated on a couple of those deep crossing routes early in the game.