QB Brock Purdy Thread

Originally posted by thl408:
The tweeter said it was completed to CMC, it was actually Kittle. Doesn't change anything, checking it down to Kittle on 2nd and 12 is fine.

I know, it's Grant…but here are a couple plays he labeled as misses

what are your thoughts?

Looks like a missed opportunity for a bigger play to me.

Originally posted by thl408:

Originally posted by qnnhan7:

Opening play of second quarter, Brock Purdy has Jauan Jennings open, but he checks it down to Christian McCaffrey for a gain of 6. #49ers pic.twitter.com/33c1CZ2b7m

— Jack Hammer (@JackHammer_NFL) January 3, 2023

I initially agreed with this, but upon further review, that rusher faked a rush and then dropped into the passing lane. Also that CB underneath Jennings was lurking, like a bait.

Want to know what some of the smarter guys on the Zone think of this Purdy missed

Not sure I am included as "smarter guys" but I agree with you. That defender was in the passing lane. Could he have layered it over that defender? Ehhh it'd be close, too close to try in the 1st quarter imo.

Yes you qualified. Don't be coy

Thanks

Originally posted by YACBros85:
Looks like a missed opportunity for a bigger play to me.

I agree with all of them. Also, watch CMC on this one.

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by YACBros85:
Looks like a missed opportunity for a bigger play to me.

I agree with all of them. Also, watch CMC on this one.

Miss No. 6. pic.twitter.com/RH9eJJOPQ7

— Grant Cohn (@grantcohn) January 3, 2023

He was staring down Kittle big time on this one. It's almost like he's starting to just depend on Kittle so much that it's turning into a bad habit for a portion of the game. Then he snapped out of it and started feeding Ayiuk. Shanahan did also say he thought Ayiuk played poorly during the start of the game. So maybe that played into it.

Originally posted by braap49er:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by YACBros85:
Looks like a missed opportunity for a bigger play to me.

I agree with all of them. Also, watch CMC on this one.

Miss No. 6. pic.twitter.com/RH9eJJOPQ7

— Grant Cohn (@grantcohn) January 3, 2023

He was staring down Kittle big time on this one. It's almost like he's starting to just depend on Kittle so much that it's turning into a bad habit for a portion of the game. Then he snapped out of it and started feeding Ayiuk. Shanahan did also say he thought Ayiuk played poorly during the start of the game. So maybe that played into it.

Of course Kittle and CMC are gonna demand the double teams now. But that won't be the case when Deebo returns.

Originally posted by random49er:

Originally posted by tankle104:
Using what you bolded - yes, that is a logical assumption.

The only thing I would argue is that you can't use that as a blanket statement to say one QB is better (not saying you are). I guarantee Alex smiths TWP was ridiculously low but he also played extremely conservative - a play style I don't like or support (that's how I personally feel about it).

I'll take a higher TWP or whatever it's called if the QB is responsible with those decisions and makes bigger plays than bad plays - such as Mahommes, Purdy (so far), Herbert etc.

No, you certainly can't claim that 1 QB is playing better than the other because of it.

But if we'd both argued about the 2 QBs before and pretty much called them even, then that could easily be the deciding factor.

Not much is definitive in football when examining stats alone and again, that's a function of the complexity of outcomes while playing the game. It's a big part of why we tune in every weekend.

That's fair. I have no issue with that.

also, I think a lot of miscommunication happens when fans are debating topics about their team because we all have different preferences of what we think good football is or the best formula for a success.

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by YACBros85:
Looks like a missed opportunity for a bigger play to me.

I agree with all of them. Also, watch CMC on this one.

Miss No. 6. pic.twitter.com/RH9eJJOPQ7

— Grant Cohn (@grantcohn) January 3, 2023

Woof. Sucky but he's a rookie and that's gonna happen.

Originally posted by NYniner85:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by YACBros85:
Looks like a missed opportunity for a bigger play to me.

I agree with all of them. Also, watch CMC on this one.

Miss No. 6. pic.twitter.com/RH9eJJOPQ7

— Grant Cohn (@grantcohn) January 3, 2023

Woof. Sucky but he's a rookie and that's gonna happen.

I have zero issues with this. Not because he helped find another way to win but because he's going to learn and grow from this. And Kyle/Griese will too.

Originally posted by NYniner85:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by YACBros85:
Looks like a missed opportunity for a bigger play to me.

I agree with all of them. Also, watch CMC on this one.

Miss No. 6. pic.twitter.com/RH9eJJOPQ7

— Grant Cohn (@grantcohn) January 3, 2023

Woof. Sucky but he's a rookie and that's gonna happen.

lol a 7th round rookie QB misses a few throws in his 5th game and fans feel the need to highlight it. Literally the highest passer rating in the NFL since he took over. People have too much time on their hands.

Originally posted by NYniner85:

Originally posted by thl408:
The tweeter said it was completed to CMC, it was actually Kittle. Doesn't change anything, checking it down to Kittle on 2nd and 12 is fine.

I know, it's Grant…but here are a couple plays he labeled as misses

what are your thoughts?

After the overtime win over the Raiders, Kyle Shanahan said Brock Purdy missed some throws. Here are those misses.

Miss No. 1. pic.twitter.com/ezxzXAcgE5

— Grant Cohn (@grantcohn) January 3, 2023

I remember that one during the game and thinking that he missed Kittle as well.

Edit: didn't see the rest at first.

Play 1 - agree.
Play 2 - looking at it from the all-22, he definitely underthrew that. Since he said that he didn't see the backside CB, my guess is he was making a "safe" throw that he knew Kittle could get to. As he gets more reps I'm sure he won't be shy about leading his targets.
Play 3 - nitpicky. Sure a little underthrown but he hit Jennings in both hands. Get big and catch the damn ball.
Play 4 - seemed like Purdy was expecting Kittle to break toward the pylon like a corner route, but Kittle stayed turned to the inside like a fade. With all of that space to his left, a corner route makes more sense. Would love to know what the route was supposed to be.
Play 5 - agree.
Play 6 - Kittle needs to catch that. Get big.
Play 7 - yes this was a bad throw, but not a "miss" as no one else was open. Very Cohn-like to throw this in there lol.

Here are a few good throws from the game:

Originally posted by Niners99:
lol a 7th round rookie QB misses a few throws in his 5th game and fans feel the need to highlight it. Literally the highest passer rating in the NFL since he took over. People have too much time on their hands.

The film breakdown video that YAC posted above had a completely different take on this play. I suggest watching it. Outside film analysis is still subjective and lacking in context in at least some ways (like not knowing the progression as a general example).

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by YACBros85:
Looks like a missed opportunity for a bigger play to me.

I agree with all of them. Also, watch CMC on this one.

Miss No. 6. pic.twitter.com/RH9eJJOPQ7

— Grant Cohn (@grantcohn) January 3, 2023

Hard to call this one a miss when he hit Kittle in the shoulder pads. Should have caught that one. Even the INT, I felt like Kittle went up too soft and could have made a stronger play on the ball.

Originally posted by swayze:

Originally posted by 49ers81:
Sorry it's not. It's just a stupid 'stat' made up to give people like Nina Kimes (is that her name?) something to talk about. Until it reaches the point where they become actual turnovers they have absolutely no more impact on a game than an incomplete pass would.

You can try and argue it anyway you want in the realm of if, and, or maybe but at the end of the day it's like saying, well today might be Wednesday, but it's not. It's Tuesday and no amount of phony projections about how it might really be Wednesday changes the basic fact of the thing.

The point of TWP% is to normalize a dataset that is highly variable based on numerous outside factors--whether or not a specific pass is actually intercepted is dependent on the defender's hands and concentration, the receiver breaking up the play, weather, "luck." We can't accurately judge the QB solely on the outcome because the outcome was out of his control; however, by normalizing TWP we get a clearer picture of the QB's decision making based on how consistently he is putting the ball in harm's way.

And yes, it's subjective--all statistics are even simply because we choose (consciously or not) which statistics to focus on. And yes, every completion, incompletion, sack, turnover, whether attributed to the QB in the box score or not, is impacted by many factors. The key question we have to ask ourselves is what are we measuring and why? The primary goal of football is not to generate statistics but to win games. In service to that we isolate statistics and try to correlate those stats with wins, so that we might better understand how to win. Which stats we choose to correlate should be flexible depending on what correlations we can identify.

It's not a question of whether or not the stat is subjective. Some guy at PFF with a degree in analytics sits around looking at film and decides whether or not it is a TWP or not. Whatever, it's no skin off my nose. My point is that until they turn into actual turnovers they are nothing more than an incomplete pass and have no greater or lesser impact on the game's outcome than that.

What you are arguing essentially is that somehow the 'analytic" aspect of it gives it some sort of greater authority than a coach looking at the film and saying, "well, we got away with one there."

You don't think that if a coach sees that happen often enough he isn't going to be aware that it might be an issue? Do you think that PFF "stats" telling him that his QB's TWP % is 2.8, or however it is they measure those things, is going to tell him something he doesn't know? Does the 2.8% somehow make it more meaningful? As I said, you are all welcome to come and revisit this issue when we are talking about actual turnovers.

Personally my whole take on football analytics is that it was developed by a bunch of math geeks trying to do for football what Bill James did for baseball. Not athletic enough to actually play the game themselves so they come up with this scam to make themselves feel like they can be "part of the game" and have some influence. Well that might work in baseball, within reason, I just think that football is a different sport. The game is so much more physical and a player's will to "win" in a particular circumstance is too difficult to quantify.

The perfect example is Jordan Willis. If you looked at his PFF stats you might come up with one picture but that picture might not account in anyway for what happened in the Green Bay game last year where his play on a field goal attempt let another guy in to block the attempt and where his blocked punt essentially won the game for them. You could argue that there wasn't a more impactful player on the team that night but I doubt that would show up in his PFF grade averaged out over a year.

There was a kick in the Seattle game that I thought was another great example. Al Michaels, doing what I am sure was some sort of promo plug, was saying just before one of Robbie's kicks, "Well, according to NextGen stats he should hit this kick 67% of the time". Shanked it to the right. Oops. I think it's mostly just meaningless nonsense that the league has been suckered into buying into that allows otherwise completely unqualified people to get on TV and "analyze" the game. That's my two cents on the topic and is all I have to say on this particular matter.