Roster Outlook Going into 2018

Karma · 2017-12-25T12:58:47-08:00

So, the wife is sick in bed and the little boy is in toy overload mode right now, so I decided to take some time to think about the team roster going forward. Excitement for this team is at a four year high, and for good reason, but Jimmy G is not the only thing that is going to lead to a playoff run next year. Much speculation will be done this offseason as to what free agents we will pursue and how we will approach the draft. I figured it was a good time to assess what we have. QBs: Current - Jimmy Garoppolo and C.J. Beathard Keepers - Both. If Lynch let's Garoppolo walk after this season, he will be chased out of town. Beathard is a capable, hard-working back-up who comes cheap for the next three years. Bubble - None Toss - None Need - Extremely Low. It's never a bad idea to keep bringing in arms through the draft, but the future looks extremely bright for this position. RBs: Current - Carlos Hyde, Matt Breida, Kyle JuszczykJeremy McNichols, Joe Williams (IR), Raheem Mostert (IR) Keepers - Matt Breida, Kyle Juszczyk Bubble - Carlos Hyde, Joe Williams, Raheem Mostert, Jeremy McNichols Toss - None Need - Medium-High. Juszczyk has been the pro-bowl player we expected and looks to be a bigger part of the offense going forward. Breida looks like, at worst, an exciting secondary back. He runs hard, has good speed, and seems to fit the system even better than Hyde at times. Add his dirt cheap contract and he is a lock for the roster. Carlos Hyde, however, is the most polarizing player on the team. There is no arguing he is a quality back, but is he right for the system? Is he worth the contract he will probably demand? We'll see. He obviously wants to be back, but is it a good decision? He has been unspectacular even as the team has soared, but that could be a symptom of a ragged offensive line. The team is flush with cash, but they are going to have to shell out big for Jimmy G. It might make more sense to let Hyde walk and bring in cheaper options. Joe Williams is the biggest question mark. He was Shanahan's pick but he ended up on the IR mostly to stash him because he wasn't ready as a rookie. If he can take a leap then Hyde becomes even more expendable. Raheem Mostert beat him out in the preseason, mainly because of his special teams ability. He has some good qualities, but can he actually add something to the run game? We'll see. Ultimately, The team would benefit from bringing in at least one rookie to push the roster. WRs: Current - Pierre Garcon (IR), Marquise Goodwin, Aldrick Robinson, Trent Taylor, Kendrick Bourne, Louis Murphy, Max McCaffrey, Victor Bolden (IR), Aaron Burbridge (IR) Keepers - Pierre Garcon, Marquise Goodwin, Trent Taylor Bubble - Aldrick Robinson, Kendrick Bourne, Max McCaffrey, Victor Bolden, Toss - Louis Murphy, Aaron Burbridge, Need - Medium-High. I can't wait to see Jimmy G throwing to Garcon. Garcon was well on his way to a pro-bowl season with Beathard and Hoyer throwing to him. Goodwin has stepped into the number one role nicely and Trent Taylor makes 3rd and 5 a guaranteed first down. These three should make a solid starting trio. Kendrick Bourne has come on in the last few games and is probably the strongest WR on the bubble. He has a big body, long arms, and excellent hands. I'm pretty excited about his future. Robinson has been a bit of a disappointment. I thought he would step up when Garcon went down, but he has been virtually invisible. The rest of the bubble guys have a pretty big hill to climb to get on the roster next year. The team needs a young star to push the vets at the top. TEs: Current - Garrett Celek, George Kittle, Logan Paulsen, Cole Hikutini (IR) Keepers - Garrett Celek and George Kittle Bubble - Logan Paulsen and Cole Hikutini Toss - None Need - Low. Celek and Kittle have both proven to be solid blockers and pass catchers. Each has also shown some chemistry with Jimmy G. Paulsen is a journeyman who could be cut and resigned a few times without concern. Hikutini showed promise and has big upside. The only knock on this group is that there is no "superstar" player. I thinking drafting a TE early would be a luxury for another year, but if a guy blows them away, let's get the weapons! OTs: Current - Joe Staley, Trent Brown (IR), Gary Gilliam (IR), Erik Magnuson (IR), Zane Beadles Keepers - Joe Staley, Trent Brown Bubble - Gary Gilliam, Erik Magnuson, Toss - Zane Beadles Need - Low. Staley and Brown are extremely good starters. Staley is on the latter half of his career, and Brown is an up and coming stud. The two should be a great pairing for a few more years. Gilliam's work was short lived, but he would be a solid swing tackle if the team decided to resign him. The issue would be money. Magnuson proved he was tough and might make Gilliam a non-issue. Please get rid of Beadles. They could look to the draft for a development project, but there is no sense in drafting a guy high just to sit for 2+ years. OGs: Current - Brandon Fusco, Laken Tomlinson, Joshua Garnett (IR) Keepers - Joshua Garnett? Bubble - Brandon Fusco Toss - Laken Tomlinson Need - Extremely High. Garnett has been tasked with remaking his body to fit the scheme better. Next year will be his make or break year. Fusco has been somewhat solid, but he is a back-up at best on a good offensive line. Tomlinson has been at least marginally better than his predecessors, but there is no way we start he and Fusco again if we are seeking the playoffs. This unit is probably the biggest need on the team. No one would complain if all new faces manned this unit next year. Cs: Current - Daniel Kilgore and Tim Barnes Keepers - None Bubble - Daniel Kilgore and Tim Barnes Toss - Both (Hopefully) Need - High. Kilgore has been a source of criticism for years. Zuttah and Barnes were brought in to push him out but neither could beat him. Both of these guys are free agents and the team is better off just starting over with new faces. DTs: Current - DeForest Buckner, Earl Mitchell, Sheldon Day, D.J. Jones, Chris Jones (IR) Keepers - DeForest Buckner, Earl Mitchell, Sheldon Day Bubble - D.J. Jones, Chris Jones Toss - None Need - Extremely Low. Buckner is the cornerstone of this defense. Mitchell is a stout vet who plays the run well. Day is a really solid rotation guy. Both of the bubble guys could easily make the roster if needed. Add on the fact that Armstead might be better off in the middle and Solomon Thomas can also fill in, this unit doesn't figure to be a need area. DEs: Current - Solomon Thomas, Elvis Dumervil, Ronald Blair, Tank Carradine, Leger Douzable, Cassius Marsh, Aaron Lynch, Arik Armstead (IR) Keepers - Solomon Thomas Bubble - Elvis Dumervil, Ronald Blair, Tank Carradine, Leger Douzable, Cassius Marsh, Arik Armstead Toss - Aaron Lynch Need - High. It is no secret that this team needs more pass rush. Thomas has played the run well and made a few appearances at the QB, but he is not the pass rusher many had hoped for. Dumervil can still get it every once and awhile, but he might be too old, expensive, and slow to resign. Marsh has played well since being claimed and has a great chance to be back. Armstead still has not found his place on the line. Carradine and Blair both have better qualities for the 4-3, but have yet to distinguish themselves. Lynch is the only guy who has no business coming back. Terrible work ethic, no character, and a suspension waiting to happen. Ultimately, finding an elite pass rusher is the biggest need for this defense. LBs: Current - Reuben Foster, Eli Harold, Brock Coyle, Dekoda Watson, Elijah Lee, Mark Nzeocha, Pita Taumoepenu, Malcolm Smith (IR), Donavin Newsom (IR), Jimmie Gilbert (IR) Keepers - Reuben Foster, Malcolm Smith, Brock Coyle Bubble - Dekoda Watson, Elijah Lee, Pita Taumoepenu, Donavin Newsom, Jimmie Gilbert Toss - Eli Harold, Mark Nzeocha Need - Medium High. Foster is another building block of this defense. Smith was brought in to be the long-term answer at the SAM position. Those two could or should be starters next year. Coyle has played well this year, but he is better as a special teams ace. Watson is another special teamer who has done a decent job when called upon. The rest of the bubble guys are rookies who could play their way on to the roster now that they have some experience, but it would be huge for this defense to add another sideline to sideline thumper to pair with Foster. Can we all agree that we have seen enough of Eli Harold being blocked into obscurity? Safeties: Current - Eric Reid, Adrian Colbert, Jaquiski Tartt (IR), Jimmie Ward (IR), Dexter McCoil, James Chanceller (IR), Don Jones (IR) Keepers - Adrian Colbert, Jaquiski Tartt, Jimmie Ward Bubble - Eric Reid, Dexter McCoil, James Chanceller, Don Jones Toss - None Need - Medium. Eric Reid will be a tough decision. He will be a free agent and might command a big salary and he has played well this year, but he still struggles some in coverage and still has a huge history of concussions. I think they stick with him, especially because he brings leadership to a young squad. Many of you are sold on Colbert as the answer at FS. I just don't see it. I think he is a really solid back-up, but he is just not the "eraser" the team needs back there. Tartt really improved last year until the broken arm and might be ready to take a starting spot. Ward wasn't terrible as the FS, but he wasn't great either. He still brings value to the secondary, but the team needs to figure out where. I'd still like to see the team get an Earl Thomas like player to shut down the middle of the field, but that might be a luxury next year. In the mean time, this group should be serviceable. CBs: Current - Ahkello Witherspoon, K'Waun Williams Dontae johnson, Antone Exum, Greg Mabin, Leon Hall, Tyvis Powell, Asa jackson (IR) Keepers - Ahkello Withersppon, K'Waun Williams Bubble - Greg Mabin, Tyvis Powell, Asa Jackson Toss - Leon Hall, Antone Exum Need - Extremely High. Witherspoon looks like the real deal. Williams is the slot CB we have needed for years. After that, the cupboard is bare. Johnson had the nice pick 6, but that was luck rather than skill. He has been disappointing as a starter. The young guys like Mabin and Powell will get a shot to improve in the offseason, but this unit is in desperate need of a talent transfusion. If they don't use one of the top three picks on CB, the front office is crazy. The team needs to find a CB to pair with Witherspoon, fast. Roster needs in order: OG - Shanahan's offense is predicated on running the ball and using play-action to open up the passing game. Even while the team has been on this incredible hot streak, the running game has sputtered. Talent at this position cannot be compromised and right now there is none. CB - A great pass rush can hide the flaws in coverage, but this team doesn't have that either. They desperately need a guy who can shutdown an opposing receiver. LEO/DE - The team's run defense has been stellar, but they still need a guy who can get to the QB. C - This position could be lumped into the OG need. There should be a few veterans in free agency who can come in and improve this team. WR - Jimmy G has done well with what the team has, but imagine how amazing it would be to have a game-breaker! LB - Foster needs a running mate. RB - There are plenty of question marks on this unit. It would make sense to keep pushing competition. Safety - The team could get by with what they have, especially if they resign Reid, but they could use a true eraser back there. OT - Finding Staley's replacement will becoming more pressing in the coming years. TE - The group we have is really solid, but you can never turn down an upgrade if we see one. DT - Who is going to be pissed if they draft a DT in the first round? QB - It feels damn good to have our guy!

Dec 25, 2017 at 1:03 PM

TheXFactor
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Posts: 25,990

Great analysis but Center is the greatest need on this team.

Dec 25, 2017 at 1:08 PM

Karma
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Posts: 1,190

Originally posted by TheXFactor:
Great analysis but Center is the greatest need on this team.

The only reason I put it lower is because I think it will be easier to find in Free Agency or the draft than OG. Dominant guards are rare.

Dec 25, 2017 at 1:42 PM

NCommand
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Posts: 123,365

Good stuff Karma.

Safeties:
Current - Eric Reid, Adrian Colbert, Jaquiski Tartt (IR), Jimmie Ward (IR), Dexter McCoil, James Chanceller (IR), Don Jones (IR)
Keepers - Adrian Colbert, Jaquiski Tartt, Jimmie Ward
Bubble - Eric Reid, Dexter McCoil, James Chanceller, Don Jones
Toss - None
Need - Medium

I'd say low priority for S. Tartt had already won the SS spot over Reid before the broken forearm and Colbert's speed, range, angles and work ethic have been heaven sent. He also would have had 3 INT's if not for that damn cast. Ward has proven beyond any reasonable doubt that he can't make it through a season no matter where he plays. His $8.5M could be used for far more important positions. Reid is gone in FA. Chancellor will return and back up. We'll draft a developmental FS.

Dec 25, 2017 at 2:01 PM

LasVegasWally
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Posts: 24,860

Excellent post and LOTS of work - Thanks!

IMO, there are 2 main keys of equal importance:

A). Leo - If we get a rampaging Leo, everyone on the D will be better

B). Guard - Tough to pick either G or C but a "Dominant" Guard will make our running game stellar. I'm thinking a guy like DeCastro who has helped make Bell a top runner in Pittsburgh.

IMO, there are 2 of next importance that will take us over the top:

A). FWR - this would be horror to our opponents

B). Another stud LB to pair w/Foster. He gets dinged up a lot and we'll need a guy to fill the gap

Lastly, we must get a Tackle that can replace Staley and/or Trent Brown if he goes down to an injury.

Dec 25, 2017 at 2:15 PM

Karma
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Posts: 1,190

Originally posted by NCommand:
Good stuff Karma.

Safeties:
Current - Eric Reid, Adrian Colbert, Jaquiski Tartt (IR), Jimmie Ward (IR), Dexter McCoil, James Chanceller (IR), Don Jones (IR)
Keepers - Adrian Colbert, Jaquiski Tartt, Jimmie Ward
Bubble - Eric Reid, Dexter McCoil, James Chanceller, Don Jones
Toss - None
Need - Medium

I'd say low priority for S. Tartt had already won the SS spot over Reid before the broken forearm and Colbert's speed, range, angles and work ethic have been heaven sent. He also would have had 3 INT's if not for that damn cast. Ward has proven beyond any reasonable doubt that he can't make it through a season no matter where he plays. His $8.5M could be used for far more important positions. Reid is gone in FA. Chancellor will return and back up. We'll draft a developmental FS.

I'm just not as sold on Colbert as you. I think he's a fine player, but I don't think he is the final answer. Mind you, I would LOVE to be wrong.

Dec 25, 2017 at 2:17 PM

Karma
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Posts: 1,190

Originally posted by LasVegasWally:
Excellent post and LOTS of work - Thanks!

IMO, there are 2 main keys of equal importance:

A). Leo - If we get a rampaging Leo, everyone on the D will be better

B). Guard - Tough to pick either G or C but a "Dominant" Guard will make our running game stellar. I'm thinking a guy like DeCastro who has helped make Bell a top runner in Pittsburgh.

IMO, there are 2 of next importance that will take us over the top:

A). FWR - this would be horror to our opponents

B). Another stud LB to pair w/Foster. He gets dinged up a lot and we'll need a guy to fill the gap

Lastly, we must get a Tackle that can replace Staley and/or Trent Brown if he goes down to an injury.

I agree on all counts, but you might be discounting the importance of a starting caliber CB. Yes, a stud LEO can make up for shortcomings in the back, but it can also happen the other way.

Dec 25, 2017 at 2:23 PM

NinerBuff
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Posts: 21,443

The 49ers will be a playoff team in 2018/19 if we can address 3 of the following, either through FA or Draft:

Dec 25, 2017 at 3:12 PM

LifelongNiner
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Posts: 24,692

Originally posted by Karma:
Originally posted by NCommand:
Good stuff Karma.

Safeties:
Current - Eric Reid, Adrian Colbert, Jaquiski Tartt (IR), Jimmie Ward (IR), Dexter McCoil, James Chanceller (IR), Don Jones (IR)
Keepers - Adrian Colbert, Jaquiski Tartt, Jimmie Ward
Bubble - Eric Reid, Dexter McCoil, James Chanceller, Don Jones
Toss - None
Need - Medium

I'd say low priority for S. Tartt had already won the SS spot over Reid before the broken forearm and Colbert's speed, range, angles and work ethic have been heaven sent. He also would have had 3 INT's if not for that damn cast. Ward has proven beyond any reasonable doubt that he can't make it through a season no matter where he plays. His $8.5M could be used for far more important positions. Reid is gone in FA. Chancellor will return and back up. We'll draft a developmental FS.

I'm just not as sold on Colbert as you. I think he's a fine player, but I don't think he is the final answer. Mind you, I would LOVE to be wrong.

Agreed. I'd keep Reid. If he wants to be here, he could potentially come back on a discount as well. Also keep in mind Tartt enters the final year of his deal. I feel great with Tartt, Colbert, and Reid as our safeties going forward.

Dec 25, 2017 at 3:29 PM

jcs
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Posts: 39,851

Expect another 20-30% more roster turnover this offseason.

Dec 25, 2017 at 3:45 PM

#10

jersey49er
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Posts: 7,667

Great job putting this together, I think the top 6 needs are C, G, DE, CB, LB, WR and they can all be addressed with 100 million in cap and 4 picks in the top 100, the way this draft is looking Shanahan and Lynch kno what they are looking for in players so I expect at least 3 starters of needs to come out of the draft and the rest of the needs be free agents they bring in..id go C, WR, and CB via free agency and G, LB, DE via draft..this team has a chance to really be a playoff contender next year if this offseason is dominated with great players at needs..can't wait for this offseason I expect big things to happen..

Dec 25, 2017 at 4:01 PM

#11

NCommand
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Posts: 123,365

Originally posted by Karma:
I agree on all counts, but you might be discounting the importance of a starting caliber CB. Yes, a stud LEO can make up for shortcomings in the back, but it can also happen the other way.

And this would certainly fit Salah's theme "this" year. A stud CB to go with Witherspoon, Colbert, Tartt and Williams would give Saleh's bigger run defensive unit an extra .5-1.0 second to get home.

Dec 25, 2017 at 4:02 PM

#12

BleedsRedNGold
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Posts: 4,821

I was with you until I didn't see Dontae in the toss column. With all the injuries and cuts, this fool has had every opportunity to shine. You either have it or you don't. Dontae ain't got it. Toss his ass.

Dec 25, 2017 at 4:02 PM

#13

LifelongNiner
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Posts: 24,692

Originally posted by jcs:
Expect another 20-30% more roster turnover this offseason.

Easily.

Dec 25, 2017 at 4:07 PM

#14

LifelongNiner
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Posts: 24,692

Originally posted by BleedsRedNGold:
I was with you until I didn't see Dontae in the toss column. With all the injuries and cuts, this fool has had every opportunity to shine. You either have it or you don't. Dontae ain't got it. Toss his ass.

Really unfortunate because I liked him and have wanted him to get his opportunity since the Fangio days. It looks like it is back to the drawing board with the corner position.