Injuries - 9-Year Analysis | Page 164

NCommand · 2017-08-10T07:50:28-07:00

Updated annually in March/April once released. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- --- 2023 for 2022 Data Update --- For over 15 years, Football Outsiders has been tracking injuries via their Adjusted Games Lost (AGL) formula that looks deeper into the quantity and quality of injuries. Quite simply, there is an AGL Threshold (between 65.9 - 82.3 on their scale), that if your team is under that threshold, the chance of getting to the playoffs is slim to none. Conversely, if your team is above the threshold, your chance of making the playoffs goes up dramatically. --- For an updated chart, PM NCommand --- But by how much? The teams under this threshold average just 6.77 wins and the teams over it, average 9.37 wins. We all know 9 wins gives you a legit chance of making the playoffs even with a 17-game schedule. In short, there seems to be a direct correlation between team AGL (health) and the number of wins and consequently, the probability of making the playoffs. What does that mean for us? The San Francisco 49ers over the past 9 years have ranked as the 31st most injured team, only behind Washington, as the most injured team in the NFL. And we've closed the gap and only trail Washington by .2 points on the aggregate average rank over that entire span. Kyle Shanahan spoke of the importance of staying healthy: "I feel confident with our guys," Shanahan said. "We got some guys who compete. Collectively, we have a smart group of people who can all play together. And I think we'll be able to surprise some people. But the biggest thing that always comes into (play) is injuries." In every analysis, there are outliers, naturally...teams that had a high AGL (i.e. lots of quality injuries) one year but still made the playoffs, but in ALL of these cases, they had a veteran or Franchise QB such as Tom Brady, Kirk Cousins, Drew Brees, Alex Smith, Andrew Luck, Nick Foles, Philip Rivers, etc. to pull them through that. You can now add Jimmy Garoppolo to that list based on 2019. But NONE of them had enough steam to win a Superbowl. What was also interesting is that many teams that were hit hard one year (i.e. Chicago 2017-2018 - Playoffs), rebounded the next year (extreme/outlier stats). Not us...Washington and San Francisco have been consistently hammered every year. Conversely, our rivals in the NFCW in Seattle and Los Angeles, remain two of the healthiest teams, ranked in the top 5 over this same span. So the next time a fan says, "Every team deals with injuries" you can point to the fact that while all teams do deal with injuries, not all teams deal with the same level of quantity and quality of injuries and this fact has a direct correlation to wins and losses and your team's chances of making the playoffs and winning that chip. So here's to a healthy 2023! We're loooooooooooooooooooooooong overdue. Football Outsiders - Adjusted Games Lost PS: This correlation appears to be as strong as the, 'turnovers-to-wins/losses correlation' metric. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Historical AGL Ranks: Lower = Healthiest 2008 - 6th 2009 - 23rd 2010 - 4th 2011 - 8th (NFCCG) 2012 - 1st (Superbowl) 2013 - 23rd (NFCCG) 2014 - 26th 2015 - 26th 2016 - 24th 2017 - 23rd 2018 - 29th 2019 - 27th (Superbowl) 2020 - 32nd 2021 - 29th (NFCCG) 2022 - 24th (NFCCG)

Sep 21, 2021 at 4:35 AM

#2446

NCommand
Hall of Fame
Posts: 123,365

Originally posted by genus49:
Can we move this to the NFC West subsection?

LMAO!

Sep 21, 2021 at 4:36 AM

#2447

NCommand
Hall of Fame
Posts: 123,365

Originally posted by 9ers4eva:
Hasty and Sermons injuries were not conditioning related. Dont know what happenned to Givens exactly to injure him.

Yeah, I didn't see either high ankle injury.

Sep 21, 2021 at 4:37 AM

#2448

NCommand
Hall of Fame
Posts: 123,365

Originally posted by socal1632:
Those guys didn't play for a hc who sacrifices rb's in a brutal run first O with jet sweeps etc. It's Kyle's system guys.

This system does absolutely eat up OL, blocking TE's and Arby's. That is definitely part of the formula here. They ask a lot from them in scheme and volume.

Sep 21, 2021 at 5:40 AM

#2449

9ers4u
Veteran
Posts: 2,122

Who's eligible to return off the short term IR next week?

Sep 21, 2021 at 5:44 AM

#2450

genus49
Moderator
Posts: 28,136

Originally posted by 9ers4u:
Who's eligible to return off the short term IR next week?

Hurst

pic.twitter.com/S8Fo01Eoml
— Maurice Hurst Jr (@mohurstjr) September 20, 2021

I think Hurd is eligible as well but obviously we'll see if he's activated. Hurst definitely getting back with Givens' injury.

Sep 21, 2021 at 5:51 AM

#2451

9ers4u
Veteran
Posts: 2,122

Originally posted by genus49:

Originally posted by 9ers4u:
Who's eligible to return off the short term IR next week?

Hurst

pic.twitter.com/S8Fo01Eoml
— Maurice Hurst Jr (@mohurstjr) September 20, 2021

I think Hurd is eligible as well but obviously we'll see if he's activated. Hurst definitely getting back with Givens' injury.

I just looked back in the thread and looks like
Hurst
Hurd
D. Harris

I wonder if Harris would be a boost to the secondary?

Given that Givens is out, Hurst would help.

I have no faith in Hurd getting playing time. But he can stay on IR for a couple more weeks, right? I think that's the rule.

Sep 21, 2021 at 6:02 AM

#2452

9ers4eva
Veteran
Posts: 22,459

Originally posted by NCommand:
Yeah, I didn't see either high ankle injury.

On the Hasty fumble as it goes outta bounds an eagle player dives for it and his shoulder goes straight into Hastys ankle. Then Hasty gets up and gets blindsided by Derek Barnett. Definitely not a conditioning thing.

Sep 21, 2021 at 6:52 AM

#2453

Giedi
Veteran
Posts: 33,955

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by socal1632:
Those guys didn't play for a hc who sacrifices rb's in a brutal run first O with jet sweeps etc. It's Kyle's system guys.

This system does absolutely eat up OL, blocking TE's and Arby's. That is definitely part of the formula here. They ask a lot from them in scheme and volume.

Astro-crete makes it worse. Those bubble screens and then they plant their foot to cut upheld and the turf doesn't let go - boom! Season ending injury.

Originally posted by 9ers4eva:
Hasty and Sermons injuries were not conditioning related. Dont know what happenned to Givens exactly to injure him.

They aren't season ending injuries either (I hope!). My point simply was that Astro turf and conditioning have been proved in the past to be related to injuries in some manner.

Sep 21, 2021 at 9:44 AM

#2454

CatchMaster80
Veteran
Posts: 20,328

The NFL is always evaluating injuries and trying to find reasons behind them. It's a league problem not just a NIners problem. No matter who has the most or the fewest, every team has them. Currently, there are 8 teams with more guys on the IR than the Niners. Dallas has 16 players on IR and the Ravens have 14. The Niners are tied with 6 other teams with 8 so they're right about in the middle of the pack.

More important than the number of players is the importance of the player to a teams success. Last year when the Niners lost their starting QB and their 2 best pass rushers early in the season it was a killer. So far this year the players we lost are important but not season killers. Let's hope things don't get worse.

Sep 21, 2021 at 9:59 AM

#2455

NCommand
Hall of Fame
Posts: 123,365

Originally posted by 9ers4eva:

Originally posted by NCommand:
Yeah, I didn't see either high ankle injury.

On the Hasty fumble as it goes outta bounds an eagle player dives for it and his shoulder goes straight into Hastys ankle. Then Hasty gets up and gets blindsided by Derek Barnett. Definitely not a conditioning thing.

LOL. I did see that shove and personal foul.

Sep 21, 2021 at 10:02 AM

#2456

NCommand
Hall of Fame
Posts: 123,365

Originally posted by CatchMaster80:
The NFL is always evaluating injuries and trying to find reasons behind them. It's a league problem not just a NIners problem. No matter who has the most or the fewest, every team has them. Currently, there are 8 teams with more guys on the IR than the Niners. Dallas has 16 players on IR and the Ravens have 14. The Niners are tied with 6 other teams with 8 so they're right about in the middle of the pack.

More important than the number of players is the importance of the player to a teams success. Last year when the Niners lost their starting QB and their 2 best pass rushers early in the season it was a killer. So far this year the players we lost are important but not season killers. Let's hope things don't get worse.

That's why AGL is so important to give you that context. Also, that's I.R. in-season. Not going into the season.

2021 Injured Reserve / PUP / NFI / Suspension Total:
RB Jeff Wilson Jr.
T/G Justin Skule
SS Tarvarius Moore
CB Tim Harris Jr. - Browns
SS Tony Jefferson
WR/PR Richie James
RB Raheem Mostert
CB Jason Verrett
WILL Dre Greenlaw
3T Kevin Givens - LIKELY
RB JaMycal Hasty - LIKELY
3T Maurice Hurst Jr. - Short-Term I.R.
CB Davontae Harris - Short-Term I.R.
Z/FWR Jalen Hurd - Short-Term I.R.
LT Shon Coleman - Injury Settlement
MIKE Mychal Kendricks - Injury Settlement
ZWR Austin Watkins - Injury Settlement
ER Jordan Willis - Suspended

2021 (17)

Sep 21, 2021 at 10:33 AM

#2457

CatchMaster80
Veteran
Posts: 20,328

Originally posted by NCommand:
That's why AGL is so important to give you that context. Also, that's I.R. in-season. Not going into the season.

2021 Injured Reserve / PUP / NFI / Suspension Total:
RB Jeff Wilson Jr.
T/G Justin Skule
SS Tarvarius Moore
CB Tim Harris Jr. - Browns
SS Tony Jefferson
WR/PR Richie James
RB Raheem Mostert
CB Jason Verrett
WILL Dre Greenlaw
3T Kevin Givens - LIKELY
RB JaMycal Hasty - LIKELY
3T Maurice Hurst Jr. - Short-Term I.R.
CB Davontae Harris - Short-Term I.R.
Z/FWR Jalen Hurd - Short-Term I.R.
LT Shon Coleman - Injury Settlement
MIKE Mychal Kendricks - Injury Settlement
ZWR Austin Watkins - Injury Settlement
ER Jordan Willis - Suspended

2021 (17)

The only players on that list tht are a big part of the team are Mostert, Greenlaw and Verrett. Greenlaw will probably be back and RBs can slide into that spot with this system. None of those othe rplayers were going to make a real difference.

Sep 21, 2021 at 10:35 AM

#2458

NCommand
Hall of Fame
Posts: 123,365

Originally posted by CatchMaster80:
The only players on that list tht are a big part of the team are Mostert, Greenlaw and Verrett. Greenlaw will probably be back and RBs can slide into that spot with this system. None of those othe rplayers were going to make a real difference.

I agree. That's part of the AGL formula. It's not like we lost a QB1 and ER1.

These are manageable even with the higher volume right now.

Sep 21, 2021 at 2:05 PM

#2459

Hoovtrain
Veteran
Posts: 34,821

So looks like no IR for Hasty and he's week to week.
anything on givens?

Sep 22, 2021 at 1:36 PM

#2460

NCommand
Hall of Fame
Posts: 123,365

First, he confirmed that defensive lineman Kevin Givens (ankle) and running back JaMycal Hasty (ankle), who the coach previously said would be out "a while," will both head to injured reserve.

2021 Injured Reserve / PUP / NFI / Suspension Total:
T/G Justin Skule
SS Tarvarius Moore
CB Tim Harris Jr. - Browns
SS Tony Jefferson
WR/PR Richie James
RB Raheem Mostert
CB Jason Verrett
WILL Dre Greenlaw
3T Kevin Givens
RB JaMycal Hasty
3T Maurice Hurst Jr. - Short-Term I.R.
CB Davontae Harris - Short-Term I.R.
Z/FWR Jalen Hurd - Short-Term I.R.
LT Shon Coleman - Injury Settlement
MIKE Mychal Kendricks - Injury Settlement
ZWR Austin Watkins - Injury Settlement
ER Jordan Willis - Suspended

2021 (17) --- 2020 (45) --- 2019 (16) --- 2018 (18) --- 2017 (26) --- 2016 (22) --- 2015 (17) --- 2014 (21)