Injuries - 9-Year Analysis | Page 163

NCommand · 2017-08-10T07:50:28-07:00

Updated annually in March/April once released. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- --- 2023 for 2022 Data Update --- For over 15 years, Football Outsiders has been tracking injuries via their Adjusted Games Lost (AGL) formula that looks deeper into the quantity and quality of injuries. Quite simply, there is an AGL Threshold (between 65.9 - 82.3 on their scale), that if your team is under that threshold, the chance of getting to the playoffs is slim to none. Conversely, if your team is above the threshold, your chance of making the playoffs goes up dramatically. --- For an updated chart, PM NCommand --- But by how much? The teams under this threshold average just 6.77 wins and the teams over it, average 9.37 wins. We all know 9 wins gives you a legit chance of making the playoffs even with a 17-game schedule. In short, there seems to be a direct correlation between team AGL (health) and the number of wins and consequently, the probability of making the playoffs. What does that mean for us? The San Francisco 49ers over the past 9 years have ranked as the 31st most injured team, only behind Washington, as the most injured team in the NFL. And we've closed the gap and only trail Washington by .2 points on the aggregate average rank over that entire span. Kyle Shanahan spoke of the importance of staying healthy: "I feel confident with our guys," Shanahan said. "We got some guys who compete. Collectively, we have a smart group of people who can all play together. And I think we'll be able to surprise some people. But the biggest thing that always comes into (play) is injuries." In every analysis, there are outliers, naturally...teams that had a high AGL (i.e. lots of quality injuries) one year but still made the playoffs, but in ALL of these cases, they had a veteran or Franchise QB such as Tom Brady, Kirk Cousins, Drew Brees, Alex Smith, Andrew Luck, Nick Foles, Philip Rivers, etc. to pull them through that. You can now add Jimmy Garoppolo to that list based on 2019. But NONE of them had enough steam to win a Superbowl. What was also interesting is that many teams that were hit hard one year (i.e. Chicago 2017-2018 - Playoffs), rebounded the next year (extreme/outlier stats). Not us...Washington and San Francisco have been consistently hammered every year. Conversely, our rivals in the NFCW in Seattle and Los Angeles, remain two of the healthiest teams, ranked in the top 5 over this same span. So the next time a fan says, "Every team deals with injuries" you can point to the fact that while all teams do deal with injuries, not all teams deal with the same level of quantity and quality of injuries and this fact has a direct correlation to wins and losses and your team's chances of making the playoffs and winning that chip. So here's to a healthy 2023! We're loooooooooooooooooooooooong overdue. Football Outsiders - Adjusted Games Lost PS: This correlation appears to be as strong as the, 'turnovers-to-wins/losses correlation' metric. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Historical AGL Ranks: Lower = Healthiest 2008 - 6th 2009 - 23rd 2010 - 4th 2011 - 8th (NFCCG) 2012 - 1st (Superbowl) 2013 - 23rd (NFCCG) 2014 - 26th 2015 - 26th 2016 - 24th 2017 - 23rd 2018 - 29th 2019 - 27th (Superbowl) 2020 - 32nd 2021 - 29th (NFCCG) 2022 - 24th (NFCCG)

Sep 20, 2021 at 3:51 PM

#2431

NCommand
Hall of Fame
Posts: 123,365

Originally posted by KeepRabbitsOut:
2021 (16) --- 2020 (45) --- 2019 (16)
Silver Lining. They are going to the SB !!!!! (too soon?)

Never too soon...to go to the Superbowl!

Sep 20, 2021 at 3:51 PM

#2432

NCommand
Hall of Fame
Posts: 123,365

Originally posted by qnnhan7:
High ankle sprained for Hasty. Isn't that usually 4-6 weeks?

Yeah, usually. Bad ones are 6-8. He too might go on I.R. and return in a month+.

Sep 20, 2021 at 4:29 PM

#2433

KeepRabbitsOut
Veteran
Posts: 6,407

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by qnnhan7:
High ankle sprained for Hasty. Isn't that usually 4-6 weeks?

Yeah, usually. Bad ones are 6-8. He too might go on I.R. and return in a month+.

I said that guy looked like he would break.

[ Edited by KeepRabbitsOut on Sep 21, 2021 at 3:41 AM ]

Sep 20, 2021 at 4:30 PM

#2434

KeepRabbitsOut
Veteran
Posts: 6,407

Originally posted by blizzuntz:
Niners are trying out Lamar Miller and Duke Johnson .

every RB is hurt

It's getting so much closer to bring back old man Gore!!!!!!

Sep 20, 2021 at 5:08 PM

#2435

madislander
Veteran
Posts: 13

at least RB usually has good names available on the FA market. i mean s**t.....look who the ravens picked up just last week.

the line plan is doing amazing at protecting jimmy and winning in the trenches thats the important part.

Sep 20, 2021 at 5:13 PM

#2436

NCommand
Hall of Fame
Posts: 123,365

Rams injuries just hit differently.

Rams HC Sean McVay says RB Darrell Henderson is dealing with a rib cartilage injury, but team is hopeful he'll be ready Sundayhttps://t.co/wOdHwizkOp pic.twitter.com/4pTVyAKdMk
— Around The NFL (@AroundTheNFL) September 20, 2021

[ Edited by NCommand on Sep 20, 2021 at 5:13 PM ]

Sep 20, 2021 at 5:16 PM

#2437

4evrfan
Veteran
Posts: 3,061

Sorry if this has been brought up already but, this is now the second year in a row that we're suffering an abnormal string of injuries. Could this be linked to our training and conditioning program? I don't see this happening to this degree with other teams, and certainly not 2 years in a row! Just bad luck?

Sep 20, 2021 at 5:22 PM

#2438

blizzuntz
Veteran
Posts: 55,269

Originally posted by KeepRabbitsOut:

Originally posted by blizzuntz:
Niners are trying out Lamar Miller and Duke Johnson .

every RB is hurt

It's getting so much closer to bring back old man Gore!!!!!!

Roger Craig !!!

Sep 20, 2021 at 5:36 PM

#2439

genus49
Moderator
Posts: 27,800

Can we move this to the NFC West subsection?

Sep 20, 2021 at 6:11 PM

#2440

Giedi
Veteran
Posts: 33,857

Originally posted by 4evrfan:
Sorry if this has been brought up already but, this is now the second year in a row that we're suffering an abnormal string of injuries. Could this be linked to our training and conditioning program? I don't see this happening to this degree with other teams, and certainly not 2 years in a row! Just bad luck?

I agree, I think it's linked, but I'd be the first to say I dunno how. I'll just add that I think the 49er front office has to adjust their grades regarding health and fitness regimens that players do in the offseason. Example Bosa (I know he was rehabbing) but he was very faithful in keeping the front office updated on his daily workouts etc... You could tell that a guy like Pettis wasn't doing the kind of fitness regimens that a guy like Bosa would be doing.

Workout warriors like Craig, Rice, and Gore seemed to have had less injuries than those around them during their NFL careers.

Russel Wilson learned how to take care of his body and he's been very durable. Those are some examples off the top of my head where perhaps the front office can learn something about how a good fitness regimens can help prevent injury, and more importantly grade and pay accordingly.

Sep 20, 2021 at 6:17 PM

#2441

9ers4eva
Veteran
Posts: 22,381

Hasty and Sermons injuries were not conditioning related. Dont know what happenned to Givens exactly to injure him.

[ Edited by 9ers4eva on Sep 20, 2021 at 6:18 PM ]

Sep 20, 2021 at 6:36 PM

#2442

SolRebe1
Veteran
Posts: 13,546

Originally posted by Giedi:

Originally posted by 4evrfan:
Sorry if this has been brought up already but, this is now the second year in a row that we're suffering an abnormal string of injuries. Could this be linked to our training and conditioning program? I don't see this happening to this degree with other teams, and certainly not 2 years in a row! Just bad luck?

I agree, I think it's linked, but I'd be the first to say I dunno how. I'll just add that I think the 49er front office has to adjust their grades regarding health and fitness regimens that players do in the offseason. Example Bosa (I know he was rehabbing) but he was very faithful in keeping the front office updated on his daily workouts etc... You could tell that a guy like Pettis wasn't doing the kind of fitness regimens that a guy like Bosa would be doing.

Workout warriors like Craig, Rice, and Gore seemed to have had less injuries than those around them during their NFL careers. Russel Wilson learned how to take care of his body and he's been very durable. Those are some examples off the top of my head where perhaps the front office can learn something about how a good fitness regimens can help prevent injury, and more importantly grade and pay accordingly.

Well said!

Sep 20, 2021 at 10:17 PM

#2443

elguapo
Veteran
Posts: 26,381

Originally posted by NCommand:
Rams injuries just hit differently.

Rams HC Sean McVay says RB Darrell Henderson is dealing with a rib cartilage injury, but team is hopeful he'll be ready Sundayhttps://t.co/wOdHwizkOp pic.twitter.com/4pTVyAKdMk
— Around The NFL (@AroundTheNFL) September 20, 2021

Yup. Figures. We called it NC

Originally posted by 4evrfan:
Sorry if this has been brought up already but, this is now the second year in a row that we're suffering an abnormal string of injuries. Could this be linked to our training and conditioning program? I don't see this happening to this degree with other teams, and certainly not 2 years in a row! Just bad luck?

Bigtime. It's a scary pattern

Sep 21, 2021 at 3:46 AM

#2444

KeepRabbitsOut
Veteran
Posts: 6,407

Originally posted by blizzuntz:

Originally posted by KeepRabbitsOut:

Originally posted by blizzuntz:
Niners are trying out Lamar Miller and Duke Johnson .

every RB is hurt

It's getting so much closer to bring back old man Gore!!!!!!

Roger Craig !!!

Dude looks fit enough. But I could not watch for fear of his legacy being destroyed.

Sep 21, 2021 at 4:03 AM

#2445

socal1632
Veteran
Posts: 4,731

Originally posted by Giedi:

Originally posted by 4evrfan:
Sorry if this has been brought up already but, this is now the second year in a row that we're suffering an abnormal string of injuries. Could this be linked to our training and conditioning program? I don't see this happening to this degree with other teams, and certainly not 2 years in a row! Just bad luck?

I agree, I think it's linked, but I'd be the first to say I dunno how. I'll just add that I think the 49er front office has to adjust their grades regarding health and fitness regimens that players do in the offseason. Example Bosa (I know he was rehabbing) but he was very faithful in keeping the front office updated on his daily workouts etc... You could tell that a guy like Pettis wasn't doing the kind of fitness regimens that a guy like Bosa would be doing.

Workout warriors like Craig, Rice, and Gore seemed to have had less injuries than those around them during their NFL careers. Russel Wilson learned how to take care of his body and he's been very durable. Those are some examples off the top of my head where perhaps the front office can learn something about how a good fitness regimens can help prevent injury, and more importantly grade and pay accordingly.

Those guys didn't play for a hc who sacrifices rb's in a brutal run first O with jet sweeps etc. It's Kyle's system guys.