1st Team All Pro - OW, Kyle "Juice" Juszczyk

Originally posted by NCommand:

We're taking that Tiger in red on Sunday kind of mentality this year! @ Levi's Stadium https://t.co/zrEzRT3HMC

— Kyle Juszczyk (@JuiceCheck44) April 14, 2019

Tiger must be playing all the holes again.

Hello darkness, my old friend.

Juice just obliterates this ranking every year, man. And now that more data are in it's even worse than everyone thought.

(note: I don't hate the player, I hate the contract. Or, put more honestly, I like the player and despise the contract)

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/27031059/the-nfl-20-biggest-outlier-contracts-why-fullback-reigns-again

1. Kyle Juszczyk, FB, San Francisco 49ersThree-year compensation: $15.45 million
Percent above average: 174.3

For the third consecutive year, Juszczyk ranks head and shoulders above the pack. To put his four-year, $21 million deal in context, Donald would need to make about $108 million over three years to be similarly ahead of the defensive tackle market. Russell Wilson's four-year, $140 million extension would need to be a four-year, $202.9 million deal to rank similarly ahead of the quarterback class.

Nobody has joined the 49ers in rewarding the fullback position, either. Juszczyk is one of just four veteran fullbacks in the league signed to a deal of three seasons or more. The former Raven averages $5.3 million across that deal; the other three players average $5.6 million combined. Most of the league's multiyear deals at the position are rookie contracts, including several undrafted free agents. The only other fullback in the league with an average salary over $2 million is Patrick DiMarco, who is at $2.1 million.

You can understand why Kyle Shanahan might want to target a fullback like Juszczyk, who would help mask San Francisco's pre-snap tendencies while potentially creating a mismatch against a linebacker. I advocated for the Patriots to use James Develin in a similar way in advance of the Super Bowl, and their breakthrough came when they were able to use Develin and their tight ends to create mismatches out of a running formation in the passing game. Juszczyk offers similar flexibility.

The issue isn't wanting Juszczyk on the roster. It's paying him more than twice as much as any other fullback in the league. He has offered little as a runner over his first two seasons in San Francisco, carrying the ball 15 times for 61 yards. Those 15 runs include a pair of fourth-and-1 stuffs and a third-and-1 stuff which resulted in a lost fumble. Juszczyk has fumbled four times across 98 touches, which is the seventh-worst rate in the league over the past two seasons among players with 50 touches or more.

It's almost impossible for a back to be valuable with that sort of fumble rate. Niners fans might argue that Juszczyk was signed to serve as a receiver, and indeed, he has been more productive catching passes. Juszczyk has caught 63 passes for 639 yards over the past two seasons, and Shanahan has been able to scheme him open for big plays, most notably this 56-yard catch against the Vikings last September. Of course, Shanahan would also theoretically be able to scheme open another fullback or H-back, too.

Juszczyk's production as a receiver has been similar to players like Antonio Gates, Brandon LaFell and Jaron Brown over the past two seasons, guys who are on the fringes of NFL rosters at this point of their careers. It's hard to make a case that he has been a good enough receiver to overcome the fumble issues.

If the argument is that Juszczyk helps as a blocker, that's also tough to trust, as 36.8 percent of San Francisco's running plays with Juszczyk on the field result in a successful run by expected points added (EPA). Without Juszczyk on the field, though, that figure rises to 42.8 percent.

In the bigger picture, there just isn't much evidence of Juszczyk making a consistent difference. The 49ers are successful on offense by EPA for 41.9 percent of their snaps with Juszczyk on the field. Without him, they've been successful on ... 41.8 percent of their snaps. I don't think those on/off stats are enough to totally discount Juszczyk, but it's also fair to say that there isn't a clear case he's making a difference.

Is spending too much on a fullback going to make or break the 49ers' chances of competing? Of course not. Juszczyk's deal, though, is one of a series of shocking contracts the 49ers have handed out to make sure they get their guy at a given position, even if it means paying something well above market value or expectations.

Those deals have not aged well. Malcolm Smith, who signed a five-year, $26.5 million deal after relatively anonymous play with the Raiders, missed all of his debut season with a torn pectoral and only started five games in his second campaign while dealing with a hamstring injury. The 49ers paid him more than $12 million for two years of injuries and replacement-level play before forcing him to take a pay cut this offseason.

Jerick McKinnon, signed last March to a four-year, $30 million deal after struggling as a runner during his final two season in Minnesota, went down with a torn ACL in training camp. The 49ers couldn't have predicted that McKinnon would get hurt, of course, but there was never much logic in paying nearly $12 million in guarantees to a running back in a Shanahan scheme which has been finding useful backs out of nowhere for two decades. The NFL has been devaluing fullbacks for about as long. Juszczyk has bucked the financial trend, but the 49ers haven't reaped much benefit halfway through the league's largest outlier of a deal.

Originally posted by PopeyeJonesing:
Hello darkness, my old friend.

Juice just obliterates this ranking every year, man. And now that more data are in it's even worse than everyone thought.

(note: I don't hate the player, I hate the contract. Or, put more honestly, I like the player and despise the contract)

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/27031059/the-nfl-20-biggest-outlier-contracts-why-fullback-reigns-again

1. Kyle Juszczyk, FB, San Francisco 49ersThree-year compensation: $15.45 million
Percent above average: 174.3

For the third consecutive year, Juszczyk ranks head and shoulders above the pack. To put his four-year, $21 million deal in context, Donald would need to make about $108 million over three years to be similarly ahead of the defensive tackle market. Russell Wilson's four-year, $140 million extension would need to be a four-year, $202.9 million deal to rank similarly ahead of the quarterback class.

Nobody has joined the 49ers in rewarding the fullback position, either. Juszczyk is one of just four veteran fullbacks in the league signed to a deal of three seasons or more. The former Raven averages $5.3 million across that deal; the other three players average $5.6 million combined. Most of the league's multiyear deals at the position are rookie contracts, including several undrafted free agents. The only other fullback in the league with an average salary over $2 million is Patrick DiMarco, who is at $2.1 million.

You can understand why Kyle Shanahan might want to target a fullback like Juszczyk, who would help mask San Francisco's pre-snap tendencies while potentially creating a mismatch against a linebacker. I advocated for the Patriots to use James Develin in a similar way in advance of the Super Bowl, and their breakthrough came when they were able to use Develin and their tight ends to create mismatches out of a running formation in the passing game. Juszczyk offers similar flexibility.

The issue isn't wanting Juszczyk on the roster. It's paying him more than twice as much as any other fullback in the league. He has offered little as a runner over his first two seasons in San Francisco, carrying the ball 15 times for 61 yards. Those 15 runs include a pair of fourth-and-1 stuffs and a third-and-1 stuff which resulted in a lost fumble. Juszczyk has fumbled four times across 98 touches, which is the seventh-worst rate in the league over the past two seasons among players with 50 touches or more.

It's almost impossible for a back to be valuable with that sort of fumble rate. Niners fans might argue that Juszczyk was signed to serve as a receiver, and indeed, he has been more productive catching passes. Juszczyk has caught 63 passes for 639 yards over the past two seasons, and Shanahan has been able to scheme him open for big plays, most notably this 56-yard catch against the Vikings last September. Of course, Shanahan would also theoretically be able to scheme open another fullback or H-back, too.

Juszczyk's production as a receiver has been similar to players like Antonio Gates, Brandon LaFell and Jaron Brown over the past two seasons, guys who are on the fringes of NFL rosters at this point of their careers. It's hard to make a case that he has been a good enough receiver to overcome the fumble issues.

If the argument is that Juszczyk helps as a blocker, that's also tough to trust, as 36.8 percent of San Francisco's running plays with Juszczyk on the field result in a successful run by expected points added (EPA). Without Juszczyk on the field, though, that figure rises to 42.8 percent.

In the bigger picture, there just isn't much evidence of Juszczyk making a consistent difference. The 49ers are successful on offense by EPA for 41.9 percent of their snaps with Juszczyk on the field. Without him, they've been successful on ... 41.8 percent of their snaps. I don't think those on/off stats are enough to totally discount Juszczyk, but it's also fair to say that there isn't a clear case he's making a difference.

Is spending too much on a fullback going to make or break the 49ers' chances of competing? Of course not. Juszczyk's deal, though, is one of a series of shocking contracts the 49ers have handed out to make sure they get their guy at a given position, even if it means paying something well above market value or expectations.

Those deals have not aged well. Malcolm Smith, who signed a five-year, $26.5 million deal after relatively anonymous play with the Raiders, missed all of his debut season with a torn pectoral and only started five games in his second campaign while dealing with a hamstring injury. The 49ers paid him more than $12 million for two years of injuries and replacement-level play before forcing him to take a pay cut this offseason.

Jerick McKinnon, signed last March to a four-year, $30 million deal after struggling as a runner during his final two season in Minnesota, went down with a torn ACL in training camp. The 49ers couldn't have predicted that McKinnon would get hurt, of course, but there was never much logic in paying nearly $12 million in guarantees to a running back in a Shanahan scheme which has been finding useful backs out of nowhere for two decades. The NFL has been devaluing fullbacks for about as long. Juszczyk has bucked the financial trend, but the 49ers haven't reaped much benefit halfway through the league's largest outlier of a deal.

The article is missing a crucial component in the analysis, which is at that time of signing Juszyck, how much cap room was available for the 49ers to spend and which free agents were available? There was no player worth re-signing from Baalke's regimen when Shanahaan and Lynch took over and therefore they could afford this size contact + some and still can...

Originally posted by 49ersVic:
The article is missing a crucial component in the analysis, which is at that time of signing Juszyck, how much cap room was available for the 49ers to spend and which free agents were available? There was no player worth re-signing from Baalke's regimen when Shanahaan and Lynch took over and therefore they could afford this size contact + some and still can...

Nobody has ever debated if the 49ers could afford the contract or not.

By this logic paying Malcolm Smith like he was a top 10 player at his position was a good signing too.

Or to push the argument even farther, given that the 9ers have 30 million in cap room right now, they might as well just give Gould 20 million for the season to get him in camp.

Juice is the first player in NFL history to make more than double the second highest paid player at his position. I'd bet $5,000 dollars that he'll also be the last.
Having enough cap room to do something stupid and insane makes it *slightly* easier to stomach, but it doesn't make it any less stupid or insane.

Originally posted by PopeyeJonesing:

Originally posted by 49ersVic:
The article is missing a crucial component in the analysis, which is at that time of signing Juszyck, how much cap room was available for the 49ers to spend and which free agents were available? There was no player worth re-signing from Baalke's regimen when Shanahaan and Lynch took over and therefore they could afford this size contact + some and still can...

Nobody has ever debated if the 49ers could afford the contract or not.

By this logic paying Malcolm Smith like he was a top 10 player at his position was a good signing too.

Or to push the argument even farther, given that the 9ers have 30 million in cap room right now, they might as well just give Gould 20 million for the season to get him in camp.

Juice is the first player in NFL history to make more than double the second highest paid player at his position. I'd bet $5,000 dollars that he'll also be the last.
Having enough cap room to do something stupid and insane makes it *slightly* easier to stomach, but it doesn't make it any less stupid or insane.

Agree on Malcolm Smith. I like to see how his contract compares to the other LBs before saying that was an outrageously bad contract.

Juszyck also had 2 other teams willing to pay close to what the 49ers paid too if you remember. So sometimes its driven by supply / demand dynamics.

Paying double for a FB is like paying double for a can of apple juice. At least you didn't pay double for a beer. The new front office had to do something to entice free agents to come to that crappy team.

Originally posted by thl408:
Paying double for a FB is like paying double for a can of apple juice. At least you didn't pay double for a beer. The new front office had to do something to entice free agents to come to that crappy team.

Exactly. We were nobody after Baalke / Tomsula / Chip

Originally posted by 49ersVic:
Juszyck also had 2 other teams willing to pay close to what the 49ers paid too if you remember. So sometimes its driven by supply / demand dynamics.

I know the 9ers have claimed this, but people say a lot of things.*

That three NFL teams in one off-season were all competing to do something that no other team in NFL history has ever even gotten *close* to doing just doesn't pass the smell test. That doesn't mean that Juice's agent didn't claim it or that the 9ers didn't justify and explain it to themselves that way, but it just strains credulity way too far, IMO.

*Examples: Every time a player is perceived to be taken early in the draft, for ever team it "leaks" out to the local media that other teams were just about to take him; ever off-season every so-far disappointing player is having "the best off-season of his career", etc.

Originally posted by thl408:
Paying double for a FB is like paying double for a can of apple juice. At least you didn't pay double for a beer. The new front office had to do something to entice free agents to come to that crappy team.

Bad teams have been enticing good players with money since free agency has existed. There's nothing that special about that.

Yet despite that happening year in and year out, nobody has ever gotten *anywhere close* to overpaying like this in the history of the NFL.

These arguments are like trying to fell a tree with a pea shooter, IMO.

Originally posted by PopeyeJonesing:

Originally posted by thl408:
Paying double for a FB is like paying double for a can of apple juice. At least you didn't pay double for a beer. The new front office had to do something to entice free agents to come to that crappy team.

Bad teams have been enticing good players with money since free agency has existed. There's nothing that special about that.

Yet despite that happening year in and year out, nobody has ever gotten *anywhere close* to overpaying like this in the history of the NFL.

These arguments are like trying to fell a tree with a pea shooter, IMO.

I didn't say anything about it being special. Just that it was something that had to be done to get free agents to sign on to a bad team/franchise. I still think there's something to my point of how overpaying for a FB is not as bad as overpaying for a premier position such as CB. At least the 49ers use Juice and he's good at what he does even if he is overpaid by a lot. In hindsight, there were other contracts that were worse based off usage and production gained (Garcon/Malcolm).

Originally posted by thl408:

Originally posted by PopeyeJonesing:

Originally posted by thl408:
Paying double for a FB is like paying double for a can of apple juice. At least you didn't pay double for a beer. The new front office had to do something to entice free agents to come to that crappy team.

Bad teams have been enticing good players with money since free agency has existed. There's nothing that special about that.

Yet despite that happening year in and year out, nobody has ever gotten *anywhere close* to overpaying like this in the history of the NFL.

These arguments are like trying to fell a tree with a pea shooter, IMO.

I didn't say anything about it being special. Just that it was something that had to be done to get free agents to sign on to a bad team/franchise. I still think there's something to my point of how overpaying for a FB is not as bad as overpaying for a premier position such as CB. At least the 49ers use Juice and he's good at what he does even if he is overpaid by a lot. In hindsight, there were other contracts that were worse based off usage and production gained (Garcon/Malcolm).

100% agreed that overpaying for a lower-value position is less important than overpaying the same amount for a higher-value position.

By way of comparison, given Juice's play (which as the article notes, hasn't been good and the offense has been less effective with him on the field than off) if we were talking QB we'd be talking the Bengals deciding to pay Andy Dalton 70 million per year -- about the same percent overpay, but at a more expensive position.

As for worse contracts, with the benefit of hindsight, I think that's true. But without hindsight, Garcon and Smith *could have* earned out on the size of their contracts. The Juice contract is unlike any other contract in NFL history as it was impossible for the relative value on his contract to ever earn out (no player in the NFL has ever been 2.5x better than the second best player at his position, or anywhere close to that).

I agree, it was a bad contract but it helped getting us going. Hopefully, we get out of the bad contract and either get him for cheaper or replace him with the weapons we have been adding.

Originally posted by PopeyeJonesing:

Originally posted by 49ersVic:

Juszyck also had 2 other teams willing to pay close to what the 49ers paid too if you remember. So sometimes its driven by supply / demand dynamics.

I know the 9ers have claimed this, but people say a lot of things.*

That three NFL teams in one off-season were all competing to do something that no other team in NFL history has ever even gotten *close* to doing just doesn't pass the smell test. That doesn't mean that Juice's agent didn't claim it or that the 9ers didn't justify and explain it to themselves that way, but it just strains credulity way too far, IMO.

*Examples: Every time a player is perceived to be taken early in the draft, for ever team it "leaks" out to the local media that other teams were just about to take him; ever off-season every so-far disappointing player is having "the best off-season of his career", etc.

Adam Schefter claimed it not the 9ers, he was being pursued by us and 2 other teams.

https://ftw.usatoday.com/2019/06/nfl-personnel-groupings-11-personnel-12-personnel-21-personnel
The Patriots' use of 21 personnel during their Super Bowl run was celebrated as a win for football purists who yearn for a return to the days of two-back offense. The truth is, New England wasn't very efficient on those plays despite their high usage; the 49ers, however, were very efficient out of 21p — both in the run and pass games. The key man is Kyle Juszczyk, who blocks like a fullback but can also line up in the slot and run a good route.
----

There was an efficiency stat that tried to quantify how well the 49ers used 21 personnel. I'll try to find it, but I'm not sure what I'm looking for.

Originally posted by evil:

Originally posted by PopeyeJonesing:

Originally posted by 49ersVic:
Juszyck also had 2 other teams willing to pay close to what the 49ers paid too if you remember. So sometimes its driven by supply / demand dynamics.

I know the 9ers have claimed this, but people say a lot of things.*

That three NFL teams in one off-season were all competing to do something that no other team in NFL history has ever even gotten *close* to doing just doesn't pass the smell test. That doesn't mean that Juice's agent didn't claim it or that the 9ers didn't justify and explain it to themselves that way, but it just strains credulity way too far, IMO.

*Examples: Every time a player is perceived to be taken early in the draft, for ever team it "leaks" out to the local media that other teams were just about to take him; ever off-season every so-far disappointing player is having "the best off-season of his career", etc.

Adam Schefter claimed it not the 9ers, he was being pursued by us and 2 other teams.

Two things on this:

(1) That other teams were interested in him only means that other teams were interested in him. It absolutely, unequivocally does not mean that other teams were competing to pay him more than double what the second highest paid FB was paid, or about 2.5x that, as the 9ers did.

(2) As Maiocco mentioned in passing in the Candlestick Chronicles ep that came out today, the "leaks" that national reporters get are usually coming from player's agents.

So when Schefter reports at 6:00 AM that the Browns really like Juice, and then reports a few hours later that Juice is going to sign with Buffalo, and then reports a few hours after that that he's wrong and Juice is going to sign with the 9ers, it's pretty easy to see what's happening.

There's only one person in the world who knows what the Brown, Bills, and 9ers are all up to, and that's Juice's agent. And Juice's agent isn't dumb: he's using Schefter to keep on upping the ante across these three teams. And Schefter isn't dumb: he's using the agent and what the agent wants to get what he wants, which is to break "news."

And while the Juice contract is exceptional in NFL history for how stupidly overpaid the player is, in broader relief it's not that exceptional for the 9ers FO: they have developed a reputation both locally and in the national media for not being price sensitive when they want a player. It has yet to hurt them because the team is bad and has enough cap room, but it also has yet to work out yet too (as we would expect -- when you get focused on single players and are willing to way overpay for them the likelihood of them earning out on that is incredibly low).