John Lynch - 49ers GM

If you are hand picking your FS of the future in the late 3rd round then that's a fail in itself.

Originally posted by tankle104:
I think coaches should coach and scouts should scout. it's two different skill sets and I think (with good intention) we try to overlap them and make the most of it - but i think it hurts us a lot. let the scouts do their job and let the coaches coach them up.

Yup. Scouts devote their whole year to scouting. Coaches look at tape for a couple of months.

Originally posted by NYniner85:

Originally posted by 49ersRing:

Originally posted by NYniner85:

Originally posted by 49ersRing:
I don't know what we're doing differently, but it shouldn't be the fans responsibility to figure it out. Just attributing it all to bad luck when it's been happening for more than a decade is letting the team off the hook. I'm sure the problem is complex, but they're the only ones with the resources and access required to figure it out. We know they haven't invested enough into resolving the problem, because the problem still persists and we've seen zero improvements.

We haven't even changed our head S&C coach since 2019. In such a results based business, what other coach could have such poor results for so many years and keep their job?

You act like we're the only team that deals with injuries…and that's simply not the truth.

you're forming some sort of hypothesis based off emotions.

invest in what? How about the players invest in their own health in recovery on top of what SF provides? Why is Derrick Henry who plays a position you usually fall off a cliff at 30 still killing it? Why is he never getting hurt when RBs around the league do every week? The guy takes care of his body, it's his investment to continue to play/make money.

these players need to be better on their own as well….Collins shows up out of shape and fat what does he think is gonna happen? I'll bet money he showed up at like 350lbs. Shocking his ligament didn't hold up

you can invest in every ice bath, PT, cryo freeze chamber, red light bed…s**t isn't gonna matter if the player doesn't hold himself accountable to be ready for f**king go.

There's no electrical substation at MetLife, yet those f**kers are hurt more than anyone.

I mean, going off of AGL (Adjusted Games Lost), we've had roughly 35% more games lost by starters than the league average over the last 12 years, almost 100 more games than the 2nd place team, and close to double the amount of games as the Rams. That seems pretty significant.

Article detailing AGL from 2021:
https://www.ninersnation.com/2021/6/9/22525254/49ers-terrible-injury-luck-continues-2020-nfl-offseason

AGL from 2012-2021 (#2 behind Washington during that time and we've since surpassed them):
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1daD7BaSXtAtbk-wdUNunK_JRHcw7WCU_DaFKyi9OsRs/edit?usp=drivesdk

AGL from 2022 & 2023 (our only healthy year):

https://ftnfantasy.com/nfl/texans-lead-2023-agl-numbers-with-ol-injury-record

AGL from 2024 (disaster):

https://ftnfantasy.com/nfl/2024-agl-49ers-get-smacked-down-by-injuries

AGL from 2025 (top 5 again):

https://ftnfantasy.com/nfl/adjusted-games-lost-2025-no-team-suffered-like-the-cardinals

Is AGL the only way to measure injuries? No, obviously not, but it's a well thought out measurement and as good as any. It's unlikely we're not near the top using any method. Pretending that every team has the same level of injuries or that this problem hasn't been around for over a decade just doesn't make sense to me.

This article shows that SF isn't even in the top 5

https://www.ingame.com/most-injured-nfl-teams-and-players/

Again I don't disagree that we've dealt with a ton injuries, man I live in NY and listen to every Giant fan complain about how injury prone they are…same s**t different team/fan base.

it isn't a hey we don't have enough cryo chambers compared to the Rams….theres multiple layers to every single injury, there is no smoking gun to all of it.

I'm curious what that site's criteria was and I wish they had listed the rankings of each team. It doesn't pass the smell test to me that Deebo Samuel is one of the most injured players over the past 5 seasons with 17 games missed when there are players that have missed that many games due to injury in a single season.

Originally posted by 9ers4eva:
If you are hand picking your FS of the future in the late 3rd round then that's a fail in itself.

Why? Day 2 is the sweet spot to pick a starting level S

Originally posted by Sask49erFan:
The roster building of this team is beyond questionable.

20 sacks last year? Let's only draft a undersized guy in the 3rd and rely on Bosa to not get hurt again and bank on Mykel coming back in week 8 and being more than just an edge setter.

Cant stop the run? Let's run it back with Collins and West.

No starting LG? Let's draft a tackle in the 4th and move him to guard.

Teams are going to absolutely target our weaknesses

Well don't forget Jaden Dugger as a blitzer, there's more than one way to skin a cat or get sacks.

Originally posted by genus49:
That's the beauty of the NFL and why coaching matters. You don't always get a chance to build juggernaut rosters and even then they don't always win the whole thing. You have to play with who you have and try to cover up for your weakness.

I also think the team may simply realize this is the best they can do for now. If they can tread water and play well enough to get to the trade deadline with a good record maybe they go for an impact level trade at the deadline.

Funny thing is you listed several critical issues we had last year and expected a turnaround in one offseason? Do the 49ers just get a blank check or ability to bring in any player they want while the rest of the league sits back and lets it happen?

They have to play within the market and work with other teams trying to improve as well.

Improving the pass rush isn't easy. When you have a top level pass rusher you have to count on them doing most of the work like any other team. Bosa's job is to get the QB. Yes we need him to stay healthy but let's just ignore that they added one of the top pass rushing 3Ts in Osa and drafted Gracen Halton who's got potential and claiming they did nothing is just wrong.

Can't stop the run - wasn't simply a DT issue(not to mention once again you left off those 2 additions). We were very good stopping the run when Mykel was out there. He'll be back. Our bigger issues were at linebacker. Those should be improved as well.

No starting LG is a big whiff clearly(though we'll see what that converted tackle will do) You also act like moving guys from T to G in the NFL is a crazy thing only the 49ers do. Do you know how many former college OTs are now playing G and at a high level in the NFL?

It's very possible the 49ers did what they could to improve areas they felt had to be improved with the resources and players available. The edge FA class wasn't anything special. It was basically Trey Hendrickson, Boye Mafe, Jaelen Phillips and everyone else. And really those 2 guys don't belong with Hendrickson. We were never going to pay premium edge $ to a guy not named Nick Bosa. Sure I wish we would've brought in a vet and I really thought we would have(maybe we still will after getting back from Australia)

Safety market however was terrible this offseason.

I said this before but similar to 2018 when everyone was shocked we didn't address DE and rolled out Cassius Marsh, the team identified a clear need but felt the guys available weren't worth it and punted. Then turned around and added Dee Ford and Nick Bosa who helped us get to the SB on the back of one of the best pass rushing units in the league.

I believe that's what the team is doing at safety. Jessie Bates will be a 49er if I was to put money on something. Maybe even at some point this season...

Great points. Not only do most superficial fans ignore how trades *AND* free agency, *AND* the draft works in concert, also most casual fans don't understand (in a sense) that certain draft classes have strengths and weaknesses of their own. Example, the 2022 QB draft, only Brock Purdy has done anything worthwhile, the rest have been nothing to write home about. Contrast that with the 1983 draft that had *three* hall of fame QB's in the first round.

I also think the Coach and GM *have* to work together, one guy can't do it all. I also don't think totally ONE guy in charge of everything doesn't work either, be it GM or HC. But, I do say that the Coach has to be the primary driver of talent acquisition, but again, that doesn't mean the GM is a rubber stamp for the HC. The GM is also important to give the HC options for the future, because the HC is concentrated on the present.

Originally posted by bassmanr:

Originally posted by NYniner85:
End of the day SF has stunk at drafting for a considerable amount of time. They can't get out of their own way, constant reaching that's resulted in s**t picks.

the good thing is, it only takes one really good draft to turn it all around.

Good post...i agree we just need a couple of good drafts and fill the holes in our roster to finally get over the hump

Seattle did it, the Rams did it, now us.

Agree, one draft can do it. Walsh did it in 1981 and set the tone for about two decades. The next one was the 1986 draft that landed Roger Craig and the gang. For whatever reason, my gut says the '25 and '26 drafts are going to be good. Yeah we got injuries to Collins and Williams, but it's not like the Dynasty years where you can stash talent on your roster and nobody can poach them. The nice thing is that the 49ers can also poach players from other teams - it goes both ways. You lose a star player like Deebo and Greenlaw and you can get also get them back. There is a lot more volatility now than back when *Only* the 49ers and Cowboys were vying for the Superbowl title for almost half a decade.

Originally posted by Heroism:

Originally posted by NYniner85:

the good thing is, it only takes one really good draft to turn it all around.

I was going to say this. What worries me is that they never seem to learn from their mistakes when it comes to reaching. They continue doing it year after year. Ironically, they seem to have hit on Stribling and Black this year, which will likely end up reinforcing the exact draft philosophy that has produced a ton of whiffs. I love that it looks like they hit, but I hate that it will likely inadvertently validate a bad process.

I still can't get over them drafting Enrique Cruz in the fifth round. Someone should be fired for that alone. I'm being hyperbolic, but holy f**k, that guy is horrible.

For what it's worth, Enrique was (in a sense) ShanaLynch's last pick in the 2026 draft (like a 7th round pick) but in the fifth round. In that sense, if I look at Enrique as a typical 7th rounder - it doesn't seem to be a bad pick in my book.

Originally posted by tankle104:
I'd be really curious how most teams draft process works, between the scouts/coaches/front office etc. With us, it seems to me like the coaches have a huge say in who gets drafted.

For example, Our LB coach with Dugger. I wonder if the process was that a scout loved dugger and some other guys, then showed the position coach, then they lobbied for them with the front office. or is it just the coaches look over players and find the ones they "love" and they push that, then the front office takes that into account and the scout report?

Idk, but i've said it for years - it's odd we typically draft really well in the late rounds but poorly in the first 3 rounds (Super hit or miss with players). that is statistically wild over a 10 year period. I'd love to know what they do different with their process from the first few rounds to the second part. If they do anything different at all, idk.

I get that most draft picks across the league will suck or not make it, every team misses on most of their picks, but I find the niners turnouts to be so odd.

From my recollection of how Walsh drafted, it was him leading and McVay following up. But the scouts and the coaches were definitely involved - very similar, but not exactly as how it's done now. What I can say about the difference today is the ability for the 49ers R & D team to look at statistical money ball and help the GM and the HC put numbers on what their Coaching and GM instincts say about a particular player or team.

Originally posted by WildBill:
Plus sometimes, you don't know, they maybe eyeing a player, but the board didn't fall there way and the player they wanted got swooped out under them. That is the only you will never here another teams talk about to the press we wanted this player but so and so stole him from us-at least not publicly, until they retire.

Agree, I think that's what happens *usually* with the 49ers day one picks - year in and year out. A ton of teams know the 49ers system because the either coached here or were employed here, and so they *know* how ShanaLynch thinks about players and poaches who the 49ers would like to draft. So trading down (in a sense) defeats those types of opposing strategies.

Originally posted by CatchMaster80:
They drafted Lance because he was viewed as a player at a position of need. JG couldn't stay healthy so they felt they needed a replacement. They had Trent Williams so they didn't view tackle as a need at that time. Same for Parsons because the had Bosa. You're projecting your desires and looking at the results after the fact. Teams don't have that luxury. They need to make a decision based on their internal evaluation and they don't get do overs. This isn't fanstasy football.

Interesting that none of the players you named have played on a SB team except DeJean and the Eagles and they didn't win because of him.

My point was that if they just took the BPA at a position of need. These guys fall in love with a scheme fit player and over draft guys every year and pass on a guy who was right there who is a better player. It makes no sense

You don't pass on a Parsons or Wirfs just because you have Bosa or Williams.and if that's their "internal evaluation" they need to change it immediately because their drafting strategy has not been working.

Originally posted by tankle104:
Right, but I agree with NY that we seem to take a worse ranked position of need over BPA in the first couple rounds. I get that the reality of the draft is you can't always do BPA cause of needs etc, but it's usually best practice.

who knows, hopefully stuff gets better. our last few drafts have had some good players who've contributed. If we can get 2-3 quality players a draft, that's a solid draft. you hope you get better but the reality is that most selections amount to literally nothing, for every team.

Since 2019 ShanaLynch has been below 10 wins (10 because that's almost a guarantee of making the playoffs if a team wins ten games) only twice. That's almost 8 years and only two where they didn't make the playoffs. They must be doing something right.

Originally posted by NYniner85:

Originally posted by Sask49erFan:
We should be drafting BPA at a position of need.

Instead we reach on players in the first round every year passing on players who would be immediate upgrades.

-Javon Kinlaw over Tristin Wirfs
-Ricky Pearsall over Cooper DeJean
-Mykel Williams over Tyler Booker
-Trey Lance over Jamaar Chase, Penei Sewell, Micah Parsons and Rashawn Slater

or drafting RB's and a K in the 3rd

These guys get in their own way. They over draft guys every year and pass on a better player at a position of need

Meh you're cherry picking with those examples and acting like the guys they drafted didn't have similar draft grades.

Kinlaw was looked at as a top 2 DT in that draft
SF isn't gonna draft a NCB over a WR.
Williams was regarded as a top 15 player and was top 5 the yr prior on draft boards. Stop acting like they would draft a OG top 11 let alone over a DL.
Lance was also regarded as a top 15 pick and let's keep s**t real, QB need >> everything else.

Look I get what you're saying with sticking to the overall draft board (based off draft analysts) but the hindsight look how easy it should be examples are silly…you can do that for every single team in every draft.

Kinlaw was picked because they made an atrocious decision to trade away Buckner.

Mykel Williams was picked because they passed on Parsons.

Most of our draft picks are them trying to un-do a previous bad decision.

They SHOULD draft an OG in round 1 or a NB/S over a WR That's their failure yet again and look where we are. Why are you defending them for consistently refusing to upgrade the guard and safety position?

Our drafting has ranked at the bottom on the league for how many years now? We have what? One player from rounds 1-2 playing out of the past 5 drafts. So no, not every team in the league is even as close to us in poor drafting.

Eventually it's going to catch up to us when our aging stars start to decline.

You are exhausting.

Originally posted by 49ersRing:
I mean, going off of AGL (Adjusted Games Lost), we've had roughly 35% more games lost by starters than the league average over the last 12 years, almost 100 more games than the 2nd place team, and close to double the amount of games as the Rams. That seems pretty significant.

Article detailing AGL from 2021:
https://www.ninersnation.com/2021/6/9/22525254/49ers-terrible-injury-luck-continues-2020-nfl-offseason

AGL from 2012-2021 (#2 behind Washington during that time and we've since surpassed them):
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1daD7BaSXtAtbk-wdUNunK_JRHcw7WCU_DaFKyi9OsRs/edit?usp=drivesdk

AGL from 2022 & 2023 (our only healthy year):

https://ftnfantasy.com/nfl/texans-lead-2023-agl-numbers-with-ol-injury-record

AGL from 2024 (disaster):

https://ftnfantasy.com/nfl/2024-agl-49ers-get-smacked-down-by-injuries

AGL from 2025 (top 5 again):

https://ftnfantasy.com/nfl/adjusted-games-lost-2025-no-team-suffered-like-the-cardinals

Is AGL the only way to measure injuries? No, obviously not, but it's a well thought out measurement and as good as any. It's unlikely we're not near the top using any method. Pretending that every team has the same level of injuries or that this problem hasn't been around for over a decade just doesn't make sense to me.

It's some kind of coping mechanism to deflect and say it happens to other teams when in reality we are by far the most injured team the past 10 years.

It's not just a one or two year sample size either. 10 years gives you all the data we need and something is wrong.

Hell, we lost two starters before we even played a game this year.