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Originally posted by miked1978:
Lynch takes a lot of heat about taking Mitch Wishnowsky and i think i've seen several charts showing he's his biggest reach to date. Horrible value i agree but go look at the 144 players taken after Wishnowsky. Less than 10 of them ever panned out. Thats a 7% chance we'd hit on a pick that would have been a good "value" if we didn't draft Wish.

And to top it off, they did pick one of those 10 players later on. Dre Greenlaw.

I'd never pick a kicker or punter that early but at the end of the day they got more "value" out of the player than 93% of the players drafted after him.

i have an unpopular philosophy but assuming you don't have immediate needs at the starter level and you dont have a reliable kicker if there is one in the draft (or trade) i think its worth spending a mid round pick on one and hypoethically not worry about the position for next 5 to 10 years. Especially for kickers its a really important position that literally decide games
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I think the term "value" is terribly misused regarding draft picks. It should be replaced with "projection".

"Value" has elements attached to it that give it weight. At least "projection" is more honest. It is just a freaking guess, educated (some more than others) guess at best.
Originally posted by AB81Rules:
Look I get we haven't hit on every pick but for christ sake this post on X is so stupid, including 2024-2026 picks when you can't fully evaluate players for 3yrs at minimum, and he says only Brock was a hit, yet Green, Stout, Brown, Mustapha, Puni, Collins/West are all slated as starters, while Bethune, Sigle, Colby, Winters, Burford, K.Davis have all started games and aren't bad picks, just cause they're not stars doesn't mean they were bad, just ignorant IMO, also sick of this "consensus boards online" crap, I don't care what these "experts" think, they don't know all 32 boards, or how all 32 teams feel about every player, look at Jermod McCoy, ranked top 15, went 4th rd, Shedeur Sanders 1st rd ranking went 5th rd, so annoyed by people who think they know better than those inside the NFL, I remember under Baalke when Kiper would give us an A every year, yeah didn't turn out great, Lynch isn't the best, but he sure as hell isn't a bottom 5 GM, he's top 10, not sure there's many I'd take over him, sure SEA, LAR, PHI, KC, and some others are as good or better, for ppl to act like every other team hits on every pick every yr, look at SEA before last few yrs, whiff after whiff, yet everyone loves them now, JFC, getting sick of nonsense like this.


Agree. Polymarket is a bunch if degenerate dipshits.
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Originally posted by OKC49erFan:
I think the term "value" is terribly misused regarding draft picks. It should be replaced with "projection".

"Value" has elements attached to it that give it weight. At least "projection" is more honest. It is just a freaking guess, educated (some more than others) guess at best.

Yup, they are just guesses. For every so called reach/bust picks (Kinlaw, Pettis, Hurd) the GM should get credit for finding gems such as Brieda, Mason, and Bourne.

In my book ShanaLynch is doing just fine getting the players needed to go into the playoffs. Trent Williams was a trade, and he's the cornerstone of the OLine. CMC is another traded player, these were great trades and the *consensus*, I don't think, even takes these GM moves into account - in evaluating a GM.
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Originally posted by AB81Rules:
Look I get we haven't hit on every pick but for christ sake this post on X is so stupid, including 2024-2026 picks when you can't fully evaluate players for 3yrs at minimum, and he says only Brock was a hit, yet Green, Stout, Brown, Mustapha, Puni, Collins/West are all slated as starters, while Bethune, Sigle, Colby, Winters, Burford, K.Davis have all started games and aren't bad picks, just cause they're not stars doesn't mean they were bad, just ignorant IMO, also sick of this "consensus boards online" crap, I don't care what these "experts" think, they don't know all 32 boards, or how all 32 teams feel about every player, look at Jermod McCoy, ranked top 15, went 4th rd, Shedeur Sanders 1st rd ranking went 5th rd, so annoyed by people who think they know better than those inside the NFL, I remember under Baalke when Kiper would give us an A every year, yeah didn't turn out great, Lynch isn't the best, but he sure as hell isn't a bottom 5 GM, he's top 10, not sure there's many I'd take over him, sure SEA, LAR, PHI, KC, and some others are as good or better, for ppl to act like every other team hits on every pick every yr, look at SEA before last few yrs, whiff after whiff, yet everyone loves them now, JFC, getting sick of nonsense like this.


Football is multidimensional, there is the dimension of the draft, coaching, player development, trades scheme etc... I would never give too much attention to folks who just focus on one aspect of the football game who don't even try to understand the rest of it.

I appreciate guys like Mel Kyper who are lazer focused on one aspect of football, because I do learn something from them. But the draft isn't football. Football is also blocking and tackling and calling the right plays at the right time.
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Originally posted by brodiebluebanaszak:
Agree. In the end, it's all about improving the productivity of the draft process. Whether through criticism or praise it doesn't matter. What's the AV of the players that you selected that would be one measure. How do we stack up against the other 32 teams for AV by position. That would be an interesting analysis. And AV of course is pretty anonymous it doesn't tell you about the quality of the snaps. But it is one universal measure. Probably the AV number should be adjusted by relative position in the draft because it makes sense that earlier drafting teams would have better scores than later drafting teams

Average value should be tied to something objective. If its going to be done in an objective and fair manner. Right now the so called consensus - whatever that means - is too subjective.

For example a basketball in the hands of 9moon is worth a buck and some change (just an example of course, Moon ), but a basketball in Stephen Curry's hands is worth millions. That's how ambiguous this Average value, or consensus thing is at. You can define it in a million ways.
Originally posted by Giedi:
Originally posted by brodiebluebanaszak:
Agree. In the end, it's all about improving the productivity of the draft process. Whether through criticism or praise it doesn't matter. What's the AV of the players that you selected that would be one measure. How do we stack up against the other 32 teams for AV by position. That would be an interesting analysis. And AV of course is pretty anonymous it doesn't tell you about the quality of the snaps. But it is one universal measure. Probably the AV number should be adjusted by relative position in the draft because it makes sense that earlier drafting teams would have better scores than later drafting teams

Average value should be tied to something objective. If its going to be done in an objective and fair manner. Right now the so called consensus - whatever that means - is too subjective.

For example a basketball in the hands of 9moon is worth a buck and some change (just an example of course, Moon ), but a basketball in Stephen Curry's hands is worth millions. That's how ambiguous this Average value, or consensus thing is at. You can define it in a million ways.

The idea of value is based on projections by guys that make a living doing that. It doesn't mean they're right or wrong. Just their opinions. I don't care about the projections or what someone feels is a reach at number whatever. All that matters is how do they do when the action starts.

I wasn't excited by the picks the Niners made but that doesn't matter. If 2 or 3 end up helping the team then I'll be happy. On the other hand if they selected a lot of guys I liked and they didn't produce I would be disappointed.
Originally posted by TheWooLick:
Originally posted by AB81Rules:
Look I get we haven't hit on every pick but for christ sake this post on X is so stupid, including 2024-2026 picks when you can't fully evaluate players for 3yrs at minimum, and he says only Brock was a hit, yet Green, Stout, Brown, Mustapha, Puni, Collins/West are all slated as starters, while Bethune, Sigle, Colby, Winters, Burford, K.Davis have all started games and aren't bad picks, just cause they're not stars doesn't mean they were bad, just ignorant IMO, also sick of this "consensus boards online" crap, I don't care what these "experts" think, they don't know all 32 boards, or how all 32 teams feel about every player, look at Jermod McCoy, ranked top 15, went 4th rd, Shedeur Sanders 1st rd ranking went 5th rd, so annoyed by people who think they know better than those inside the NFL, I remember under Baalke when Kiper would give us an A every year, yeah didn't turn out great, Lynch isn't the best, but he sure as hell isn't a bottom 5 GM, he's top 10, not sure there's many I'd take over him, sure SEA, LAR, PHI, KC, and some others are as good or better, for ppl to act like every other team hits on every pick every yr, look at SEA before last few yrs, whiff after whiff, yet everyone loves them now, JFC, getting sick of nonsense like this.


Agree. Polymarket is a bunch if degenerate dipshits.

OK, let's just say they are spot on 100% correct with that "data", we are still a very successful football program from a win-loss standpoint. If you can communicate back to them, ask them what they attribute our success to since it isn't the draft.

In other words, if you can find the negatives you can find the positives.
Originally posted by ritz126:
Originally posted by miked1978:
Lynch takes a lot of heat about taking Mitch Wishnowsky and i think i've seen several charts showing he's his biggest reach to date. Horrible value i agree but go look at the 144 players taken after Wishnowsky. Less than 10 of them ever panned out. Thats a 7% chance we'd hit on a pick that would have been a good "value" if we didn't draft Wish.

And to top it off, they did pick one of those 10 players later on. Dre Greenlaw.

I'd never pick a kicker or punter that early but at the end of the day they got more "value" out of the player than 93% of the players drafted after him.

i have an unpopular philosophy but assuming you don't have immediate needs at the starter level and you dont have a reliable kicker if there is one in the draft (or trade) i think its worth spending a mid round pick on one and hypoethically not worry about the position for next 5 to 10 years. Especially for kickers its a really important position that literally decide games

Not trying to hate and I respect your view on this but I couldn't be on more of the opposite side. IF we were a building team then I'd have no problem taking a shot but for a team in our position, I would never take a chance on a rookie kicker especially when good veteran ones (as we've proven time and again) are just sitting out there as free agents and are cheap.
let's go Johnny I need some damn Joey Bosa news
Originally posted by riverrunzthruit:
let's go Johnny I need some damn Joey Bosa news

Seems they are only interested at their price.
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Originally posted by 9ers4eva:
Originally posted by riverrunzthruit:
let's go Johnny I need some damn Joey Bosa news

Seems they are only interested at their price.

49ers aren't gonna sign Joey Bosa and I'm not sure why he hasn't signed with anyone yet?
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Originally posted by CatchMaster80:
The idea of value is based on projections by guys that make a living doing that. It doesn't mean they're right or wrong. Just their opinions. I don't care about the projections or what someone feels is a reach at number whatever. All that matters is how do they do when the action starts.

I wasn't excited by the picks the Niners made but that doesn't matter. If 2 or 3 end up helping the team then I'll be happy. On the other hand if they selected a lot of guys I liked and they didn't produce I would be disappointed.

Agree, these projections by consensus is just from a scouting point of view. There is a whole another dimension with regards to coaching and player development. For example John Lynch played mostly special teams in the beginning then Dungy comes in and Lynch's career takes off.

Lynch believes it's not a coincidence his career started to flourish when head coach Tony Dungy, defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin and defensive backs coach Herm Edwards arrived in 1996. They saw Lynch's potential in Kiffin's Tampa 2 defense -- and made sure he saw it, too.
Lynch became a full-time starter in '96 and made his first Pro Bowl the next year.
"I started believing in myself a little bit, but a lot of that was created by Tony and them when they came down [to Tampa]," Lynch said. "I started having the confidence, but Tony and Herm and Monte, they had a great vision for what I could become in that defense. They said, 'This is how we see you. Now we have to go make it happen.'
https://www.espn.com/blog/tampa-bay-buccaneers/post/_/id/12903/hall-of-fame-wasnt-on-john-lynchs-mind-during-slow-start-to-career
Originally posted by Giedi:
Originally posted by brodiebluebanaszak:
Agree. In the end, it's all about improving the productivity of the draft process. Whether through criticism or praise it doesn't matter. What's the AV of the players that you selected that would be one measure. How do we stack up against the other 32 teams for AV by position. That would be an interesting analysis. And AV of course is pretty anonymous it doesn't tell you about the quality of the snaps. But it is one universal measure. Probably the AV number should be adjusted by relative position in the draft because it makes sense that earlier drafting teams would have better scores than later drafting teams

Average value should be tied to something objective. If its going to be done in an objective and fair manner. Right now the so called consensus - whatever that means - is too subjective.

For example a basketball in the hands of 9moon is worth a buck and some change (just an example of course, Moon ), but a basketball in Stephen Curry's hands is worth millions. That's how ambiguous this Average value, or consensus thing is at. You can define it in a million ways.

Then choose something basic, like snaps. Or the number of times a player made the active roster. Or some combination of the two.
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Originally posted by DRCHOWDER:

Would you guys rather have him or Height?

he's another 3-4 OLB... but yes, I'd rather have him over Height at the moment.. Height done none!! and yes for a 2nd rounder..
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