Passing game - play by play v Dallas

dj43 · 2016-10-03T12:00:41-07:00

This was a much more enjoyable task to review this game than last week. Here are the passing plays with my comments at the bottom. Yd line - down/distance - result O41 - 2/6 - 5 yard completion to Burgridge. Nice to see AB getting some run. His size and strength have been lacking. D49 - 2/12 - inc to Patton along right sideline, ball knocked away by DB. Patton's timing was altered somewhat by incidental contact with Dallas DB covering another 49er on crossing route. D36 - 2/10 - 3 yd completion along left sideline to Celek who went down very easily by a one-arm tackle by DB. Had he been able to run through that tackle he would have had another 4-6 yards. Good throw on type of pass Gabbert has struggled on in the past. D33 - 3/7 - 15 yd strike to Kerley RAC the remaining 18 yds for TD. Gabbert waited for Kerley to clear and threw a good ball. Good drive. ____ O25 - 2/9 - inc along left sideline to Patton who was well covered. Ball was high but there was little chance Patton could have made catch due to coverage. 025 - 3/9 - 13 yd completion to Celek. Good route. Good throw. D48 - 1/10 - 8 yd pass with 20 yds RAC by Celek. Deeper routes cleared zone for Celek. Gabbert waited for Celek to clear and hit him in stride. D29 - 2/12 - 17 yd completion to Kerley. GREAT throw into tiny window. Good catch by Kerley. (Hyde ultimately scores TD.) ___ O13 - 2/7? - Brown allows immediate pressure between guard and tackle and Gabbert is sacked for 7 yard loss. No "hot" receiver visible. O14 - 3/13 - 3 yd completion to Draughn in right flat. No other receivers open. ___ O33 - 3/3 - Inc to Kerley short right. Dallas DB gets away with hold on Kerley to prevent him from coming back to the ball. Bigger receiver might have fought free but Kerley is not that guy. ___ D44 - 1/10 - 14 yd throw to Celek with 14 yd RAC. Incredible one-handed catch on ball that could not have been more expertly placed. Aikman raved about it. D18 - 3/4 - Inc. intended for Burbridge. Ball bounced short of Burbridge who was short of LTG. First bad pass of the game for Gabbert. FG. ___ O23 - 3/7- 4 yd completion to Hyde. No open receivers. ___ O22 - 1/10 - 6 yd completion to Kerley on rt sideline. First look. All receivers run short of LTG. O44 - 3/3 - Inc. 18 yd throw to Kerley knocked away on good play be DB. "No separation and no other targets open," Aikman. Just as Gabbert released ball it appeared Smith might have been getting behind DB but was not open earlier. ___ O45 - 1/10 - INT by Claiborne on under thrown ball. Worst pass of an otherwise good day for Gabbert. ___ O25 - 1/10 - 9 yd completion to Celek on rt sideline. Smith was also open on opposite sideline for what might have been a 12 yd completion. O35 - 2/? - 6 yd completion to Kerley who makes a great catch on ball thrown low and away from DB. O41 - 1/10 - 18 yd completion to Kerley who goes to knees to make the catch. A higher throw would have allowed Kerley to stay on his feet for RAC. D40 2/1 5 yd completion to Kerley who came back to make catch. Higher throw might have gained 2-3 more yards however it also might have allowed DB to make play to defend it. Kerley did not have separation laterally. Come back allowed him to make easy catch. D36 - 4/6 - Staley gives up a rare quick hurry forcing Gabbert to roll rt, eventually throwing incomplete to end game. Had Staley been able to force rusher wide Gabbert would have had 10+ plus yards to run up the middle or possibly find an open receiver. SUMMARY: A bitter sweet game. By far Gabbert's best performance as a 49er. Unfortunately it will also be remembered for the under throw pick by Claiborne. Gabbert made some incredible throws and receivers made some great catches. The routes were deeper in this game and receivers were getting more open than in the past, albeit against a weaker secondary than the past two games. OL was giving excellent protection and Gabbert was showing the patience we have all hoped he would show. 3rd down conversions were a very pleasant surprise both in the passing game and Gabbert's running. Gabbert's running results were a mixed bag. Some good runs for good gains, particularly on 3rd down runs. He also was tackled for little or no gain on several plays where he kept the ball instead of handing off. Dallas had obviously scouted the Seattle game and was doing a good job taking away the handoff as well as the keep. Kelly kept forcing the issue in hopes of opening the middle for Hyde runs. It did seem to be working but Dallas was well prepared and held gains to a minimum. Lack of speed did not seem to be the issue with turning the corner as Gabbert has excellent speed. Dallas just had it well defended. All of which only points to the fact that until the defense improves, the margin for error with this team remains razor thin. With Bowman now out, that margin will be even thinner. Hopefully the defense will rally around and improve. We will have to wait and see.

Oct 3, 2016 at 12:05 PM

awp8912
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Sad that, that was his best performance as a Niner.....I mean come on.

Oct 3, 2016 at 12:15 PM

Phoenix49ers
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Originally posted by awp8912:
Sad that, that was his best performance as a Niner.....I mean come on.

196 yards and 1 TD for Gabbert is a career game. That just depresses the hell out of me.

Oct 3, 2016 at 12:19 PM

TheWooLick
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O14 - 3/13 - 3 yd completion to Draughn in right flat. No other receivers open.

I think this is the one I watched a few times, it was a really poor pass that seems indicative of many of Gabbert's short passes that are complete. It was an easy pass, there was no pressure on Gabbert and no defenders anywhere near Draughn yet Gabbert sailed it way over the receivers head and away from the direction the receiver was running, Draughn had to jump and twist just to catch it and had no hope of much YAC because of the poor throw.

Oct 3, 2016 at 12:27 PM

dj43
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Posts: 38,318

Originally posted by TheWooLick:
O14 - 3/13 - 3 yd completion to Draughn in right flat. No other receivers open.

I think this is the one I watched a few times, it was a really poor pass that seems indicative of many of Gabbert's short passes that are complete. It was an easy pass, there was no pressure on Gabbert and no defenders anywhere near Draughn yet Gabbert sailed it way over the receivers head and away from the direction the receiver was running, Draughn had to jump and twist just to catch it and had no hope of much YAC because of the poor throw.

Draughn wasn't going to make much more on that play if Gabbert had run over and put it in SD's arms. Dallas had everything covered and was playing the short stuff just like Seattle did last week - let SF complete the short stuff and tackle the receiver all the while taking away anything past the sticks.

Receivers have to make those kinds of catches all the time. I watched the NO game last week and saw Drew Brees twist some of his receivers into pretzels in order to catch balls that were not perfectly thrown.

But stay focused on this one play that was going nowhere no matter how perfect the throw and ignore the numerous other VERY GOOD throws he made.

Oct 3, 2016 at 12:29 PM

thl408
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Regarding the failed QB keeps on the Zone Reads, AIkman did a good job, albeit very quickly, of describing the scrape exchange technique that tricked Gabbert into keeping the ball, only to have a LB waiting for him once he tried to gain the edge. Gabbert has good athleticism but not to the point where he has any kind of advantage versus a LB in space. Then the 49ers adjusted by giving Gabbert a two RB backfield to block the scraping LB. It worked at least once that I can recall.

Oct 3, 2016 at 12:31 PM

TheWooLick
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Posts: 44,694

Originally posted by dj43:
Originally posted by TheWooLick:
O14 - 3/13 - 3 yd completion to Draughn in right flat. No other receivers open.

I think this is the one I watched a few times, it was a really poor pass that seems indicative of many of Gabbert's short passes that are complete. It was an easy pass, there was no pressure on Gabbert and no defenders anywhere near Draughn yet Gabbert sailed it way over the receivers head and away from the direction the receiver was running, Draughn had to jump and twist just to catch it and had no hope of much YAC because of the poor throw.

Draughn wasn't going to make much more on that play if Gabbert had run over and put it in SD's arms. Dallas had everything covered and was playing the short stuff just like Seattle did last week - let SF complete the short stuff and tackle the receiver all the while taking away anything past the sticks.

Receivers have to make those kinds of catches all the time. I watched the NO game last week and saw Drew Brees twist some of his receivers into pretzels in order to catch balls that were not perfectly thrown.

But stay focused on this one play that was going nowhere no matter how perfect the throw and ignore the numerous other VERY GOOD throws he made.

I think there were YAC to be had but that is beside the point, it was a terrible pass despite the fact that it was caught. Decent quarterbacks make that easy throw consistently.
That play is indicative of how Gabbert delivers the ball regularly, for his entire career.
He made some good throws for sure but not nearly enough to make up for the horrible ones.

Oct 3, 2016 at 12:33 PM

dj43
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Posts: 38,318

Originally posted by thl408:
Regarding the failed QB keeps on the Zone Reads, AIkman did a good job, albeit very quickly, of describing the scrape exchange technique that tricked Gabbert into keeping the ball, only to have a LB waiting for him once he tried to gain the edge. Gabbert has good athleticism but not to the point where he has any kind of advantage versus a LB in space. Then the 49ers adjusted by giving Gabbert a two RB backfield to block the scraping LB. It worked at least once that I can recall.

Good point. Dallas had scouted the Seattle game well and used the same technique.

I recall the adjustment and it did help on one play for sure. On another, Draughn missed his block and Gabbert was thrown for a loss. Would like to see more of that as it keeps the defense guessing.

Oct 3, 2016 at 12:34 PM

captveg
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Originally posted by dj43:
O13 - 2/7? - Brown allows immediate pressure between guard and tackle and Gabbert is sacked for 7 yard loss. No "hot" receiver visible.

IIRC the sack was on 1st and 10.

Even with the sack and the INT coming on 1st downs, Gabbert was 5/6 on 7 first down pass plays, gaining 82 yards. 11yd/pass even factoring in the INT (0) and the sack (-7). Before the INT Kelly called 13 runs on 1st to 4 passes on 1st. 3:1 ratio of run:pass on 1st down is terrible, especially when all but one of them (the 32 yard run to open the 2nd half) combined for a total of 23 yards, or a 1.7 yard average.

Run:Pass ratio on 1st down needs to be 1:1.

[ Edited by captveg on Oct 3, 2016 at 12:40 PM ]

Oct 3, 2016 at 12:38 PM

dj43
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Posts: 38,318

Originally posted by TheWooLick:

Originally posted by dj43:

Originally posted by TheWooLick:
O14 - 3/13 - 3 yd completion to Draughn in right flat. No other receivers open.

I think this is the one I watched a few times, it was a really poor pass that seems indicative of many of Gabbert's short passes that are complete. It was an easy pass, there was no pressure on Gabbert and no defenders anywhere near Draughn yet Gabbert sailed it way over the receivers head and away from the direction the receiver was running, Draughn had to jump and twist just to catch it and had no hope of much YAC because of the poor throw.

Draughn wasn't going to make much more on that play if Gabbert had run over and put it in SD's arms. Dallas had everything covered and was playing the short stuff just like Seattle did last week - let SF complete the short stuff and tackle the receiver all the while taking away anything past the sticks.

Receivers have to make those kinds of catches all the time. I watched the NO game last week and saw Drew Brees twist some of his receivers into pretzels in order to catch balls that were not perfectly thrown.

But stay focused on this one play that was going nowhere no matter how perfect the throw and ignore the numerous other VERY GOOD throws he made.

I think there were YAC to be had but that is beside the point, it was a terrible pass despite the fact that it was caught. Decent quarterbacks make that easy throw consistently.
That play is indicative of how Gabbert delivers the ball regularly, for his entire career.
He made some good throws for sure but not nearly enough to make up for the horrible ones.

Go do your own analysis of the plays yesterday and get back to us.

He had two poor throws. The worst was the INT. The other was the one that bounced in front of Burbridge who was well defended short of the LTG. Two others might have allowed some RAC had they been perfect. The rest were pretty much on target.

I don't give a darn what he did the rest of his career. All I was reviewing is what he did yesterday.

Oct 3, 2016 at 12:38 PM

#10

LenCat
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Posts: 7,426

Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:

Originally posted by awp8912:
Sad that, that was his best performance as a Niner.....I mean come on.

196 yards and 1 TD for Gabbert is a career game. That just depresses the hell out of me.

Remember what Bill Walsh said about Steve DeBerg? "He plays just well enough to lose"

Oct 3, 2016 at 12:39 PM

#11

dj43
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Posts: 38,318

Originally posted by captveg:

Originally posted by dj43:
O13 - 2/7? - Brown allows immediate pressure between guard and tackle and Gabbert is sacked for 7 yard loss. No "hot" receiver visible.

IIRC the sack was on 1st and 10

You may be correct. I forgot to write it down when I was reviewing and added it from memory. Thanks for the add.

Oct 3, 2016 at 12:39 PM

#12

Matchuu84
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Posts: 1,362

Need to keep the TEs involved all 4 quarters

Oct 3, 2016 at 12:42 PM

#13

captveg
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Posts: 29,562

Posting this again here because it's absolutely relevant to the many 2nd and long / 3rd and longs we are seeing.

Kelly needs to pass more on 1st down. The stats back this up, even with Gabbert at QB and the current WR/TE group. Here are all the first downs plays in yesterday's game, separated by drive:

Run/Pass, player, yards

Run, Hyde, 4
Run, Gabbert, -2
Run, Gabbert, 0

Run, Hyde, 0
Run, Draughn, 1
Pass, Celek, 25
Run, Gabbert, -2
Run, Gabbert, 6

Run, Hyde, 4
Pass, SACK, -7

Run, Hyde, 9

Run, KNEEL DOWN, -1 (Ignoring in analysis below)

HALF

Run, Hyde, 32
Pass, Celek, 29
Run, Gabbert, -1

Run, Hyde, 1

Pass, Kerley, 6
Run, Hyde, 4

Pass, Smith, INT

Pass, Celek, 9
Pass, Kerley, 20
Run, Gabbert, -1

-----

14 first down runs, 7 first down passes

Throw out the 32 yarder and we ran for 23 yards on 13 first downs. That's a 1.7 yard average folks. And five of them were for a loss or no gain.

Gabbert was 5/6 passing on first down and those five completions averaged 17.8 yards, with the incompletion being the long shot INT, and the 7th play being the sack. Even with those two negative plays the average yards for the 1st down pass plays was 11.7. And 3 of the 7 first down passes came on the last two drives of the game when we were behind and Dallas was EXPECTING pass.

So, when you look at it, the run:pass ratio on first down until the INT in the 4th quarter was 13:4. 3x the runs on first vs. the passes. And of those four pass plays there was one negative, but three positive for gains of 25, 29 and 6.

Conclusion? THROW THE DAMN BALL MORE ON 1ST DOWN. The ratio needs to be 1:1, not 3:1. What about the sack and the INT you say? Yes, negative plays will happen. But you know what? They happen a lot less frequently so far. Keep the passes in the 5-15 range and Gabbert has done pretty well passing on 1st. Don't let one sack (first of the year?) and one INT (on a long low % attempt) dictate avoiding gains of 6, 25, 29, 9, and 20.

[ Edited by captveg on Oct 3, 2016 at 12:43 PM ]

Oct 3, 2016 at 12:44 PM

#14

thl408
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Posts: 33,312

Originally posted by dj43:
Go do your own analysis of the plays yesterday and get back to us.

He had two poor throws. The worst was the INT. The other was the one that bounced in front of Burbridge who was well defended short of the LTG. Two others might have allowed some RAC had they been perfect. The rest were pretty much on target.

I don't give a darn what he did the rest of his career. All I was reviewing is what he did yesterday.

There was a very flat pass he threw to Patton on a Corner route that was severely underthrown as well. On the passes that you say the WR was well covered, it could be that it was a poor decision to target that WR in the first place. This analysis is a great read, but it is very much centered around grading his accuracy and not his decision making.