ANALYSIS: Trent Baalke vs. NFL's Other Top GMs in the Draft

Originally posted by BSofSF:
Mmm...I've read conflicting reports on that one. So, if we agree that swapping the Harbaugh staff for the Tomsula staff was not a good move, then either A) Baalke had a hand in the decision, or B) Baalke was too weak to talk Jed York out of making a foolish decision. Either way, Baalke looks highly complicit in one of the most stupid front office moves in the history of sports. I think it's relevant to this thread, since a GM does more than draft players and sign free agents. You can't rank Baalke without taking into consideration his hand in this monumental blunder. And you know York ain't going to take the fall for it.

How about separating the Harbaugh-dismissal from Tomsula-hire? Was the dismissal the right move? Given the unsolved issues on offense incl. Kaepernick and Harbaugh's difficult personality and the contract details it indeed was the right move, imho.
Perhaps Baalke was too weak or Jed was to stubborn. you know, sometimes your boss will do things that contradict your opinion. It happens.

Originally posted by BSofSF:
It's rational. You can't put a number on it. But chasing off a culture of winning and a quality coaching staff is as impactful as his drafts. Bum Phillips once defined a great coach as (paraphrasing) a guy who can beat you with his'n, then swap sides and beat you with your'n. That's the type of coach that Harbaugh was. Baalke had a role in chasing him out of town. It counts.

You cant put a number on it but you do that nevertheless...

If Harbaugh was that type of coach, then the offense and Kaepernick would have been lights-out. Apparently Kaepernick wasnt, save for 2012. Hence, Harbaugh is not that type of coach.

BTW, thinking that playing NFCCG three times in a row is on coaching only is very shortsighted, imho.

Originally posted by communist:
You cant put a number on it but you do that nevertheless...

If Harbaugh was that type of coach, then the offense and Kaepernick would have been lights-out. Apparently Kaepernick wasnt, save for 2012. Hence, Harbaugh is not that type of coach.

BTW, thinking that playing NFCCG three times in a row is on coaching only is very shortsighted, imho.

I put a number on it to make a point, i.e., if you try to evaluate Baalke by how many of his draft picks became starters and do not factor in that he and York fired one of the most successful coaches in franchise history, you are using statistics to tell a lie. Jim Harbaugh had the second highest winning percentage as a head coach in the history of the NFL. His won-loss differential at the time of his firing, +23, was fourth best in the history of the league. After getting fired by San Francisco, he has wasted no time in turning around a Michigan program the way he did with the University of San Diego, Stanford and the 49ers before them. His biggest mistake, IMO, was investing too much, too soon, with Kaepernick, who just isn't that good. It was a problem that he would have had to address, probably the way the team is now, by benching Kaepernick and building up someone new. I think he would have ultimately done that for the same reasons that he dumped Alex Smith in favor of Kaepernick, because Harbaugh, above all, wanted to win. When York and Baalke fired him they made a laughing stock out of the franchise that cannot be captured by statistics.

Originally posted by OnTheClock:
Baalke's strengths are this:

- Scouting defensive talent
- Acquiring picks
- Usually getting good value in FA.


Weaknesses:

- Gambler, which sometimes results in a big hit, but more often big misses.
- Takes almost no "safe" picks or "value" picks, which in turn can hurt the team substantially, especially if the FA moves don't pan out.
- Scouting offensive talent

If he get's another year, it's because the ownership is worthless (and we already know that). To many "WTF" picks that don't turn out.

Good work, OTC

Originally posted by BSofSF:
I put a number on it to make a point, i.e., if you try to evaluate Baalke by how many of his draft picks became starters and do not factor in that he and York fired one of the most successful coaches in franchise history, you are using statistics to tell a lie. Jim Harbaugh had the second highest winning percentage as a head coach in the history of the NFL. His won-loss differential at the time of his firing, +23, was fourth best in the history of the league. After getting fired by San Francisco, he has wasted no time in turning around a Michigan program the way he did with the University of San Diego, Stanford and the 49ers before them. His biggest mistake, IMO, was investing too much, too soon, with Kaepernick, who just isn't that good. It was a problem that he would have had to address, probably the way the team is now, by benching Kaepernick and building up someone new. I think he would have ultimately done that for the same reasons that he dumped Alex Smith in favor of Kaepernick, because Harbaugh, above all, wanted to win. When York and Baalke fired him they made a laughing stock out of the franchise that cannot be captured by statistics.

1) We had a high winning percentage thanks to our defense in the first place and in despite of the offense that was below-average year in and year out.
2) Kaepernick hasnt worked out
3) offense got worse from year to year
These three points I do care about. However, I dont care about his achievements on collegiate level because they are irrelevant for the Niners.

Originally posted by KID9R:
The thing is, if don't use 2010 because he wasn't actually the GM yet and it was widely rumoured that Singleterry had a major hand in that draft. Then his success rate takes a HUGE hit. And the other pro bowler/ all pro now plays on the Raiders. And besides Kilgore who's only started seven games, he's failed to draft a starting offensive linemen in 50 pics (5years).

Why would you NOT count 2010 when he was the INTERIM GM and had been McCloughans right hand man for several years.

Now SING is the architect of that season? That's nonsense.

You give the credit to the guy who was in the chair.

Originally posted by KID9R:

Originally posted by crake49:

Originally posted by KID9R:
The thing is, if don't use 2010 because he wasn't actually the GM yet and it was widely rumoured that Singleterry had a major hand in that draft. Then his success rate takes a HUGE hit. And the other pro bowler/ all pro now plays on the Raiders. And besides Kilgore who's only started seven games, he's failed to draft a starting offensive linemen in 50 pics (5years).

I believe he was the VP of Player personnel, so he had to have a lot to do with the draft that year.

Ya, he was. But I still remember thinking Singleterry having way more pull in the draft then he should have. I'm pretty sure that's why we drafted 2 linemen in the first. For his "hit em in the mouth mentality".

SMDH

Originally posted by BSofSF:

I put a number on it to make a point, i.e., if you try to evaluate Baalke by how many of his draft picks became starters and do not factor in that he and York fired one of the most successful coaches in franchise history, you are using statistics to tell a lie. Jim Harbaugh had the second highest winning percentage as a head coach in the history of the NFL. His won-loss differential at the time of his firing, +23, was fourth best in the history of the league. After getting fired by San Francisco, he has wasted no time in turning around a Michigan program the way he did with the University of San Diego, Stanford and the 49ers before them. His biggest mistake, IMO, was investing too much, too soon, with Kaepernick, who just isn't that good. It was a problem that he would have had to address, probably the way the team is now, by benching Kaepernick and building up someone new. I think he would have ultimately done that for the same reasons that he dumped Alex Smith in favor of Kaepernick, because Harbaugh, above all, wanted to win. When York and Baalke fired him they made a laughing stock out of the franchise that cannot be captured by statistics.

Harbaugh would not bench Kap. That was his handpicked guy. Much like with Roman he would've never gone against them because that would be admitting he was wrong.

Alex was a means to an end. He was never Harbaughs guy.

Originally posted by BSofSF:
I put a number on it to make a point, i.e., if you try to evaluate Baalke by how many of his draft picks became starters and do not factor in that he and York fired one of the most successful coaches in franchise history, you are using statistics to tell a lie. Jim Harbaugh had the second highest winning percentage as a head coach in the history of the NFL. His won-loss differential at the time of his firing, +23, was fourth best in the history of the league. After getting fired by San Francisco, he has wasted no time in turning around a Michigan program the way he did with the University of San Diego, Stanford and the 49ers before them. His biggest mistake, IMO, was investing too much, too soon, with Kaepernick, who just isn't that good. It was a problem that he would have had to address, probably the way the team is now, by benching Kaepernick and building up someone new. I think he would have ultimately done that for the same reasons that he dumped Alex Smith in favor of Kaepernick, because Harbaugh, above all, wanted to win. When York and Baalke fired him they made a laughing stock out of the franchise that cannot be captured by statistics.

Absolute Great Post. I agree maybe Kaepernick just isn't that good and he caught the league by storm in the middle of 2012 and they played him more man to man instead of zone and that year the Oline was still dominant. But starting somewhat in 2013 the league started catching up with Kaep and he failed and failed to get better meanwhile the rest of the roster ALSO started to crumble via age, injury, horrible drafting ,drama etc etc etc and then this years Oline is epicaly bad meanwhile Kap still cannot read a defense or throw accurately consistently.

Originally posted by ElephantHaley:

Originally posted by BSofSF:

I put a number on it to make a point, i.e., if you try to evaluate Baalke by how many of his draft picks became starters and do not factor in that he and York fired one of the most successful coaches in franchise history, you are using statistics to tell a lie. Jim Harbaugh had the second highest winning percentage as a head coach in the history of the NFL. His won-loss differential at the time of his firing, +23, was fourth best in the history of the league. After getting fired by San Francisco, he has wasted no time in turning around a Michigan program the way he did with the University of San Diego, Stanford and the 49ers before them. His biggest mistake, IMO, was investing too much, too soon, with Kaepernick, who just isn't that good. It was a problem that he would have had to address, probably the way the team is now, by benching Kaepernick and building up someone new. I think he would have ultimately done that for the same reasons that he dumped Alex Smith in favor of Kaepernick, because Harbaugh, above all, wanted to win. When York and Baalke fired him they made a laughing stock out of the franchise that cannot be captured by statistics.

Absolute Great Post. I agree maybe Kaepernick just isn't that good and he caught the league by storm in the middle of 2012 and they played him more man to man instead of zone and that year the Oline was still dominant. But starting somewhat in 2013 the league started catching up with Kaep and he failed and failed to get better meanwhile the rest of the roster ALSO started to crumble via age, injury, horrible drafting ,drama etc etc etc and then this years Oline is epicaly bad meanwhile Kap still cannot read a defense or throw accurately consistently.

Just as a reminder... I thought the thread title and the concluding lines of my OP were pretty clear that my topic discussion is not about Trent Baalke as a GM as a whole. My analysis is only judging his capabilities as far as the draft. The bigger picture is a whole other thing. When you factor the other things in such as the above mentioned, plus FA, etc. -- a lot can change obviously.

People I think are taking the stats a little too far and trying to apply them to Baalke's current tenure as a whole. They're just one of the major parts of the big picture, but not everything, which obviously some have mentioned, but I think there is some misunderstanding. Do not think that my analysis of his draft success is in any way, shape, or form me trying to project that as the complete barometer for his success as a GM. This analysis has to do with the draft only.

So, I'm just going to say it ... If you read articles from 2010 where Jed discusses McCloughan's departure before the draft he makes clear that Scott already set the draft board before he left. The owner basically confirms that Scott, not Trent, was the architect of that draft.

The reason this is important is because the 2010 draft skews the results of the quality of Baalke's picks. Iupati, A. Davis and Bow came from that draft. So did Mays ...

Let's not forget, it was Scotty's deals in 2009 that netted us two firsts in 2010. So even if you give Baalke full credit for that draft he was playing with a very high pick handed to him by Scott.

Let's take 2010 entirely out of the equation for both Scott and Trent. Scott drafted or brought in the core of the team that went to the SB in 2012. Granted, Baalke only had two drafts up to the SB. But since then our team has been consistently worse year to year, as Scott's players have left and Trent's drafts have filled in the holes.

Our team right now is entirely Baalke except for Staley and Bowman. Look at the talent. It isn't there.

Originally posted by ronniefreakinlott42:
Dude STOLE that punter in the 5th. Genius.

Just like the 5th round punter pick by Belichick, Zoltan Mesko. Bill is a Genius too!

After leaving SF Scott went to Seattle. He was VP of personnel from 2010 through 2013. Look at the players drafted by Scott during his times in SF and in Seattle:

A. Smith, Gore, Willis, V. Davis, Staley, Crabtree, Goldson, Bowman, Iupati, A. Davis, McDonald

Sherman, Chancellor, Wright, Irvin, Wilson, Wagner, Tate, Okung, Thomas

Dude had a major hand in two squads that basically were the two best teams in the NFL from 2011 through 2014.

How do you define "primary starters"?
Do you include Aldon, Boreland, and A Davis, all individuals who decided to completely alter their career paths?
Why not include free agents as well? as being a GM is only half about the draft?

Baalke has done both good and bad, and it is really hard to evaluate a team when so many bad things are happening in one season (coaching, QB, OL, etc.). He seems to have more of a defensive strength than on offense. I also don't like how we haven't drafted more QBs, especially this year.

A lot of people seem to forget that we had a terrible terrible offseason, and lost sooooo many starters and key pieces to the team. We were expected to do terribly this year. If we were to get more than 6 or more wins, that would be a major victory for us. It almost seems like after that Vikings game, everyone lost their minds about the offseason that the Niners encountered. To be frank, I don't even hear the media bringing this up any more, which is odd. We have now gotten to the "blame game", looking to point the finger at someone.

In reality, this was doomed to be a bad year, but most have simply disregarded our losses and change in personnel. As much as we like to play armchair GM, we have no idea what goes on behind closed doors and how much negotiations actually happen.

Imagine if Seattle lost what we lost on defense and replaced them with backups, free agents, etc.... take away Bruce Irvin, Cliff Avril, Michael Bennett,Richard Sherman, and Cary Williams... their two best CBs, two starting DE, and a OLB, how does that look?