Why All of the Drops with the Catchable Passes?

Originally posted by NineFourNiner:
Wonder how many

Originally posted by Bootlegger:
A. Smith


Attempts -- 113
Completions -- 76
Incomplete -- 37
Drops -- 12
Throw Aways -- 5
Bad Passes -- 20

Bad Pass % -- 17.7%

Throw Away Breakdown
GB - 2 (end of half before Akers 63 yarder)
Detroit - 1 (50 seconds to go in the 1st quarter)
Minnesota - 1 (1:15 to go in the 2nd quarter)
NYJ - 1 (15:00 to go in the 2nd quarter)

Matt Ryan

Attempts - 147
Completions - 102
Incomplete = 45
Drops - 9
throw aways (as a % of bad passes based on Smith's 20% calc.) - 7
BAD PASSES = 29

Bad pass % = 19.72%


What have we learned?

I don't agree with your extrapolation to arrive at the estimated number of thrown away passes by Matt Ryan. Smith throws far less balls away than most QB's, he takes more sacks though. So if you want to do this right, then find out how many he actually has.

Originally posted by Jakemall:

Originally posted by Bootlegger:
A. Smith


Attempts -- 113
Completions -- 76
Incomplete -- 37
Drops -- 12
Throw Aways -- 5
Bad Passes -- 20

Bad Pass % -- 17.7%

Throw Away Breakdown
GB - 2 (end of half before Akers 63 yarder)
Detroit - 1 (50 seconds to go in the 1st quarter)
Minnesota - 1 (1:15 to go in the 2nd quarter)
NYJ - 1 (15:00 to go in the 2nd quarter)

I'm sorry but your math is based on a false assumption.

Just because a ball is not dropped, completed, or thrown away does not make it a bad pass.

You're not accounting for PDs and INTs (which can happen on good passes) and you're also not accounting for passes that are not counted as drops but the greator onus was on the wr. (Drops are only counted against the WR when the fault is 100% on the WR)

INT on a good pass? Maybe if it's tipped, either way we don't have to worry about that so far this year. As for PD, maybe all but one were because the ball was poorly placed, giving the DB too much room to bat it down. Now if he were to throw it up to Moss, for example, and its a jump ball for it, and it was batted down I wouldn't put that on the QB.

all a bunch of deflecting how many drops our guys have in relation to how many passes were thrown...

Originally posted by Bootlegger:

Originally posted by NineFourNiner:
Wonder how many

Originally posted by Bootlegger:
A. Smith


Attempts -- 113
Completions -- 76
Incomplete -- 37
Drops -- 12
Throw Aways -- 5
Bad Passes -- 20

Bad Pass % -- 17.7%

Throw Away Breakdown
GB - 2 (end of half before Akers 63 yarder)
Detroit - 1 (50 seconds to go in the 1st quarter)
Minnesota - 1 (1:15 to go in the 2nd quarter)
NYJ - 1 (15:00 to go in the 2nd quarter)

Matt Ryan

Attempts - 147
Completions - 102
Incomplete = 45
Drops - 9
throw aways (as a % of bad passes based on Smith's 20% calc.) - 7
BAD PASSES = 29

Bad pass % = 19.72%


What have we learned?

I don't agree with your extrapolation to arrive at the estimated number of thrown away passes by Matt Ryan. Smith throws far less balls away than most QB's, he takes more sacks though. So if you want to do this right, then find out how many he actually has.

Well, FWIW, this fellow - http://www.cbssports.com/mcc/messages/chrono/39158063/0/0/39362094#ID39362094 Feels that Ryan does not throw it away ENOUGH.

I also do not agree that Smith throws away less than others - likely more (roll right and throw out of bounds, remember?).

Even assuming that Ryan threw 50% + more away (which he did not) for a total of 11, that puts bad pass % at 17%...which is right on par with Smith's alleged bad passes.

Originally posted by NineFourNiner:

Originally posted by Bootlegger:

Originally posted by NineFourNiner:
Wonder how many

Originally posted by Bootlegger:
A. Smith


Attempts -- 113
Completions -- 76
Incomplete -- 37
Drops -- 12
Throw Aways -- 5
Bad Passes -- 20

Bad Pass % -- 17.7%

Throw Away Breakdown
GB - 2 (end of half before Akers 63 yarder)
Detroit - 1 (50 seconds to go in the 1st quarter)
Minnesota - 1 (1:15 to go in the 2nd quarter)
NYJ - 1 (15:00 to go in the 2nd quarter)

Matt Ryan

Attempts - 147
Completions - 102
Incomplete = 45
Drops - 9
throw aways (as a % of bad passes based on Smith's 20% calc.) - 7
BAD PASSES = 29

Bad pass % = 19.72%


What have we learned?

I don't agree with your extrapolation to arrive at the estimated number of thrown away passes by Matt Ryan. Smith throws far less balls away than most QB's, he takes more sacks though. So if you want to do this right, then find out how many he actually has.

Well, FWIW, this fellow - http://www.cbssports.com/mcc/messages/chrono/39158063/0/0/39362094#ID39362094 Feels that Ryan does not throw it away ENOUGH.

I also do not agree that Smith throws away less than others - likely more (roll right and throw out of bounds, remember?).

Even assuming that Ryan threw 50% + more away (which he did not) for a total of 11, that puts bad pass % at 17%...which is right on par with Smith's alleged bad passes.

Yes, then Smith could be on par or maybe towards the top among QBs with least number of bad passes thrown. Would be interesting to see what other QBs are at, but that is too much work i think for either of us, unless we use "throwaways" based on Smith's. I'm pretty sure they use "throwaways" in calculating QBR, but i can't find the stat anywhere.

^ My .02: We (Niner Fans) hyper analyze every. single. Smith. pass. while really only seeing the highlights of most other QBs in the league over the course of a season. This leads to the perception that Smith -and only Smith - has bad passes/habits/tendencies, etc. The reality, however, is that 66% completion (meaning a failure 1 of every 3 times) is pretty darn good and all other QBs are not perfect, either.

Either way, all i wanted to do was add some perspective to this particular thread. Comparing % of drops by our receivers to % of bad throws by our QB (17~%). Also, % drops by our receivers to other teams' receivers.

For instance...

Michael Crabtree has 21 receptions and is credited with 2 drops. So, 9.5% drop rate.
Mario Manningham has 15 receptions and is credited with 1 drop. So, 6.7% drop rate.

Other Team's WR

Larry Fitzgerald has 22 receptions and is credited with 0 drops. So, 0.0% drop rate.
Roddy White has 27 receptions and is credited with 1 drop. So, 3.7% drop rate.
Julio Jones has 16 receptions and is credited with 3 drops. So, 18.75% drop rate.
Wes Welker has 25 receptions and is credited with 3 drops. So, 12.0% drop rate.
Torrey Smith has 16 receptions and is credited with 0 drops. So, 0.0% drop rate.
Steve Smith has 17 receptions and is credited with 0 drops. So, 0.0% drop rate.
Victory Cruz has 32 receptions and is credited with 4 drops. So, 12.5% drop rate.

They are in shock, when they have catchable passes. All joking aside, it's just getting timing down with all the new receivers. Smith has a pretty decent connection with trizee and Vernon, I don't get all the delanie drops. The new guys are still working their way into the system.

Originally posted by Bootlegger:
Either way, all i wanted to do was add some perspective to this particular thread. Comparing % of drops by our receivers to % of bad throws by our QB (17~%). Also, % drops by our receivers to other teams' receivers.

For instance...

Michael Crabtree has 21 receptions and is credited with 2 drops. So, 9.5% drop rate.
Mario Manningham has 15 receptions and is credited with 1 drop. So, 6.7% drop rate.

Other Team's WR

Larry Fitzgerald has 22 receptions and is credited with 0 drops. So, 0.0% drop rate.
Roddy White has 27 receptions and is credited with 1 drop. So, 3.7% drop rate.
Julio Jones has 16 receptions and is credited with 3 drops. So, 18.75% drop rate.
Wes Welker has 25 receptions and is credited with 3 drops. So, 12.0% drop rate.
Torrey Smith has 16 receptions and is credited with 0 drops. So, 0.0% drop rate.
Steve Smith has 17 receptions and is credited with 0 drops. So, 0.0% drop rate.
Victory Cruz has 32 receptions and is credited with 4 drops. So, 12.5% drop rate.

Boot, major props for doing this research. I may have missed it but did you pull these stats out from a site, say, PFF? Or did you tally them yourself. I ask b/c many do their own analysis (tallied drop totals) and these tend to be much more reliable vs. most stat sites (save for PFF-like site where they analyze each play). Either way...props!

Originally posted by Irish40Niner:

They are in shock, when they have catchable passes. All joking aside, it's just getting timing down with all the new receivers. Smith has a pretty decent connection with trizee and Vernon, I don't get all the delanie drops. The new guys are still working their way into the system.

After rewatching the Jets game, Manningham is our best WR, IMO. other than Vernon, of course.

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by Bootlegger:
Either way, all i wanted to do was add some perspective to this particular thread. Comparing % of drops by our receivers to % of bad throws by our QB (17~%). Also, % drops by our receivers to other teams' receivers.

For instance...

Michael Crabtree has 21 receptions and is credited with 2 drops. So, 9.5% drop rate.
Mario Manningham has 15 receptions and is credited with 1 drop. So, 6.7% drop rate.

Other Team's WR

Larry Fitzgerald has 22 receptions and is credited with 0 drops. So, 0.0% drop rate.
Roddy White has 27 receptions and is credited with 1 drop. So, 3.7% drop rate.
Julio Jones has 16 receptions and is credited with 3 drops. So, 18.75% drop rate.
Wes Welker has 25 receptions and is credited with 3 drops. So, 12.0% drop rate.
Torrey Smith has 16 receptions and is credited with 0 drops. So, 0.0% drop rate.
Steve Smith has 17 receptions and is credited with 0 drops. So, 0.0% drop rate.
Victory Cruz has 32 receptions and is credited with 4 drops. So, 12.5% drop rate.

Boot, major props for doing this research. I may have missed it but did you pull these stats out from a site, say, PFF? Or did you tally them yourself. I ask b/c many do their own analysis (tallied drop totals) and these tend to be much more reliable vs. most stat sites (save for PFF-like site where they analyze each play). Either way...props!

http://stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/findplayer.asp?type=position&position=1

Originally posted by Mr.Mcgibblets:
thru week 4

SF is now tied for 3rd most drops ( 12 ) with the NYG... Lions with 15... Saints with 13.

Saints are 1st in the league for most pass attempts with 191.
Lions are 2nd in the league for most pass attempt with 186.
Giants are 5th in the league for most pass attempts with 162.

Niners are 30th in the league for most pass attempts with 114.
___________________________________________________________________

Game 1 = 2 clear drops... 1 debatable ( both from Walker )
Game 2 = 6 clear drops... ( Crabtree, Hunter, Gore, Miller, Walker, Manningham )
Game 3 = 2 clear drops... ( Moss, VD )
Game 4 = 2 clear drops... 1 debatable ( Crabtree, Walker )

Game 5 = 0 clear drops.. 1 debatable ( Crabtree )

through 5 games :

SF is now tied for 8th most drops ( 12 )

Niners are still 30th in the league for most pass attempts with 139.


Arrow up, gentleman!

Originally posted by Mr.Mcgibblets:
through 5 games :

SF is now tied for 8th most drops ( 12 )

Niners are still 30th in the league for most pass attempts with 139.


Arrow up, gentleman!

Now if only they could be "consistent." LOL

Previously, they were consistently poor as a unit...now let's trend the other way starting with the no-drop game against the Bills!