My Niners Offensive Stats predictions:

Binches · 2012-03-23T00:20:42-07:00

WR: Randy Moss: I'll use Plaxico Burress as a comparable baseline as a red zone WR target. The Jets threw the ball about 100 more times than the Niners did, but I think a motivated Moss this year is better than Plax last year. I'm giving his YPC a slight uptick from his titans/vikings numbers, . 40 catches, 550 yards, 6 TD's Crabtree: This probably depends on his offseason work. I don't see manningham challenging crabtree for the most targets among the Wideouts. Crabtree is more talented and I always thought he was most similar to Hakeem Nicks (a smaller, but quicker version) out of any WR in the league. Believe it or not these numbers are just a slight uptick from his numbers last year extrapolated over a healthy 16 games. 78 catches, 950 yards, 5 td's. Manningham: He had an elite qb throwing to him for the past two years and was never higher than third on a depth chart. He's probably at best the third passing option on this team as well, but the offense is different and alex smith isn't great at the many sideline/back shoulder throws hes used to getting from Eli. Coming into his prime and is talented so I see him making some big plays for us, but I'm not high on his projected statline . 45 catches, 600 yards, 4 td's. Ginn: Comes in only on spread sets. with extra rest on the sideline becomes the best Return guy in the league and takes it to the house at least three times. 10 catches 150 yards 1 TD. Tight Ends Vernon Davis: Beast. Contrary to what many believe Moss will bring the table as a downfield threat I think Harbaugh comes up with schemes to make VD our big play threat, as he showed in the playoffs. He's the best blocking TE in the league and a lot of his deep looks are going to come off of play action where he shoves the DE then takes off. Won't get as many targets as some would like to see, but will make use of them. 55 catches, 800 yards, 8 TD's Delanie Walker. 300 yards, 2 TD's. used similarly to last year Runing Backs Frank Gore: Now that we have to plan on >16 game seasons, we do our best to keep him fresh. 60/40 split with Hunter in the first half of games before taking over in the second half, and sits whenever we are up by more than two scores. 220 carries, 1000 yards, 6 TD's, 100 rec yards. Kendall Hunter: 10-15 touches a game as a 3rd down, first half co-back. Primary ball catcher out of the backfield, something harbaugh doesn't do often. 140 carries, 575 yards, 3 TD's, 250 rec yards Lineman: Staley or Sopoaga WILL catch a TD this year. I guarantee it. Quarterback Alex Smith: Totalling the numbers above gives 27 TD's and 3800 yards , which I think is very doable. I'll give Kaepernick about 400 yards and 3 Td's of garbage time, So we're looking at Alex smith at 24 TD's 3400 yards. He will still take care of the ball, and with a second year in the same system and with more recieving talent he'll have another career year: 24 TD 7 INT 3400 yards 62% completion 200 rushing yards 2 td 93.0 rating. What do you guys think?

Mar 23, 2012 at 12:25 AM

SofaKing
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I'd be very happy with that production. I think its realistic.

Mar 23, 2012 at 12:53 AM

btthepunk
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There'll also be yards and TD's by Kyle Williams, rookie WR, possibly rookie TE or Byham, and Bruce Miller.

Mar 23, 2012 at 2:08 AM

DerekJeterForGG
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Posts: 35

Smith, Alex:

74% completion, 5,018 yards, 44 touchdowns, 2 interceptions, MVP

And imagine how great he'll be in year 3 under Harbaugh!

[ Edited by DerekJeterForGG on Mar 23, 2012 at 2:08 AM ]

Mar 23, 2012 at 7:11 AM

jvangeystel
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Posts: 1,521

I think that you did your research and that those numbers will come fairly close to the actual stat line. I am bigger on Mario Manningham than you are but I can understand your reasoning. Personally I am being optimistic and hoping that at least 3 of our players have >1000 yard seasons. Two WRs and a RB or Two WRs a TE and a RB. Who knows, it's going to be fun though.

Mar 23, 2012 at 7:46 AM

nickbradley
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Manningham was much higher than #3 on the depth chart, just not in 2011. He was #1b in 2010. Lit it up

Mar 23, 2012 at 7:49 AM

lamontb
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Yea only thing i would switch up is Manningham having more yards than Crabtree.

Mar 23, 2012 at 7:59 AM

NCommand
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Yeah, don't be surprised if Moss and Manningham end up being the #1 and #2. HarBaalke brought in Moss and Manningham. They didn't bring in Crabtree. They obviously, were NOT impressed with Crabtree at all, esp. his performance in the CG and even put him on notice in the media (motivation tactic)? No job is given to you anymore (Alex and the FO moves confirm this).

Also, if we get Fleener, alone, that will change ALL of your offensive numbers dramatically. Good research though and as it stands right now, it seems realistic.

[ Edited by NCommand on Mar 23, 2012 at 8:23 AM ]

Mar 23, 2012 at 8:01 AM

BayStreamin510
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Posts: 63

Nice read. I agree with everything. But like another poster said, Kyle Williams & Bruce Miller would add to some of the offense too. KW was emerging as a very solid receiver towards the end of the year & Miller was a alternate in the pro bowl just in his rookie year. & I'm also hoping Crabtree gets over 1000 yards. He won't get as much attention from defenses with all the talent on offense now.

Mar 23, 2012 at 8:03 AM

BloodyGore
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Posts: 79

Originally posted by DerekJeterForGG:
Smith, Alex:

74% completion, 5,018 yards, 44 touchdowns, 2 interceptions, MVP

And imagine how great he'll be in year 3 under Harbaugh!

^^Yeah , In Madden NFL 13 lol , Smith :63% comp , 3,700 yards , 32-35 tds , 6-10 ints

Mar 23, 2012 at 8:06 AM

#10

Chief
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Posts: 28,272

Moss
700 yards 7 TD

Crabtree
1100 yards 8 TD

Manningham
500 yards 4 TD

Davis
1100 yards 9 TD

Alex Smith
3700 yards 35 TD 11 INT

Gore
700 yards rushing

Hunter
850 yards rushing

Mar 23, 2012 at 8:41 AM

#11

DynastyPart2
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Posts: 3,312

Originally posted by NCommand:
Yeah, don't be surprised if Moss and Manningham end up being the #1 and #2. HarBaalke brought in Moss and Manningham. They didn't bring in Crabree. They obviously, were NOT impressed with Crabtree at all, esp. his performance in the CG and even put him on notice in the media (motivation tactic)? No job is given to you anymore (Alex and the moves confirm this). Also, if we get Fleener, alone, that will change ALL of your offensive numbers dramatically. Good research though and as it stands right now, it seems realistic.

I agree. Crabtree will probably be #3 in the slot. Moss and Manningham will get the majority of the looks is my prediction. We will see how it plays out in training camp/pre-season. I am biased however, I just don't like Crabtree. When we needed him most against the Giants to make it to the Superbowl he had one catch for 3 yards.

To the OP; good job on the breakdown. I think you did a good job projecting the stats, but as others have said, I think Manningham will out perform Crabtree.

My best guess would be:
Manningham will have 64 catches for 1,050 yards and 8 TD's.
Crabtree will get about 48 catches and 600 yards and 2 TD's.
Moss will be the #1 and have 75 catches for 1,175 yards and 12 TD's.
Davis will have 45 catches for 715 yards and 6 TD's.
Leftover catches, yards and TD's will be divided to equal about 70 catches for 400 yards and 2 TD's.

So, this means that Alex Smith will have 302 completions for 3,940 yards and 30 TD's.

[ Edited by DynastyPart2 on Mar 23, 2012 at 8:44 AM ]

Mar 23, 2012 at 8:45 AM

#12

Evilgenius
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Originally posted by DerekJeterForGG:
Smith, Alex:

74% completion, 5,018 yards, 44 touchdowns, 2 interceptions, MVP

And imagine how great he'll be in year 3 under Harbaugh!

4949 yards, 49tds, 0 interceptions 80%. Gore is also going to score 49 TDs.